Believe me, I am fully aware that every time I rant and rave about how stupid XOM is, oil stocks rip higher. Nonetheless, I must say, oil is an ass. All of you goat fuckers going long oil should be rounded up and tossed into horse stables. Seriously, Japanese exports get cut in half and you’re over there buying oil, as if you can drink or eat that shit.
We’re being vaporized by a financial murderhole, yet some people feel it makes sense to bid up the share price of XOM. I know the game. XOM is the market. All of the cheerleaders, who want the market to trade up need to boost XOM. I get it.
But, what I don’t get is how you are over there buying crude, amidst the fuckery. Soon enough, bankruptcies will unveil themselves in the oil and gas space and you will remember the cold winter days of 2009 when Senor Tropicana warned you of pending doom.
I’m still long a lot of bullshit. But it only makes up about 15% of overall assets. I’m looking for potential value plays. Doing quick screens, NTGR and KBR look cheap. As a point in fact, I have a number of stocks, trading near cash, that may be worth accumulating.
In closing, I’m looking forward to some sort of Chicago Tea Party, where I will be sure to bring my fucking boxes of tea. I don’t like stocks here and I don’t like gold. Short oil, gold and long guns is how I’m playing this market.
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and short Euro, Fly.
Which I have been suggesting you turn into a Yen short.
What are you looking for in gold when Mr. Tropicana tells you to buy it back?
FLY-
FRPT could be added to your list of it can trade over the 5.60 level…if not, under 4.85 is the short area.
what you think sir?
What the hell are you bitching about?
XOM is negative…
I am getting SQUEEZED the fuckout out of MOSAIC short…Ugh…
Fly,
Any thoughts on current pricing of Natty Gas?
Natty is hilarity. No opinion.
Mike:
XOM came all the way back.
Was it a good time for the little piggy to goto market?! CNBC Rules lol
Iran Nuke = Oil Higher
I know you are talking about the underlying equities but the commodity itself is just subject to so many geopolitical events. When people get desperate they shit themselves and take up arms, ala (no pun) Iran.
Israel will soon launch an attack.
I have no issue with long uso, long dug trade.
By the way, where’s the clown who called yesterday the “PHIL BOTTOM”? Let me make one thing clear, THAT was not the bottom. I continue to hold all my shorts. Sold half my SWHC at 3.70 yesterday — I continue to hold out for a move to $5 on the rest. USO almost stopped me out but has now turned the corner (that’s my other long) and is igniting. Everything else I have short continues to work. Now check out GE. LOWER. The problem with you fuckers is you have no patience. That’s why you make no money. You beat your chests and boast about 2-3% gains. Just sit the fuck back and let your trades work.
The DOW is heading to 6,000. VIX is en route to 75. There’s no reason to buy stocks. Just sit back and let it happen. Then, yes, I will cover and wait for the relief rally.
J-
Any truth in the following?
Australian Gun Law Update
Here’s a thought to warm some of your hearts . . ..
From: Ed Chenel, A police officer in Australia
Hi Yanks, I thought you all would like to see the now available data from Down Under. It has now been one year (12 months) since gun owners in Australia were forced by a new law to surrender 640,381 personal firearms to be destroyed by our own government, a program costing Australia taxpayers more than $500 million dollars.
The first year results are now available:
Australia-wide, homicides are up 6.2 percent;
Australia-wide, assaults are up 9.6 percent;
Australia-wide, armed robberies are up 44 percent (yes, 44 percent);
In the state of Victoria alone, homicides with firearms are now up 300 percent as compared with the last one year period when private ownership of a firearm was legal. (NB: the law-abiding citizens did turn in their personal firearms, the riminal element did not and thus criminals in Australia still possess their guns.)
While data for the 25 years preceding the confiscation of privately owned guns showed a steady decrease in armed robbery with firearms, this has changed drastically upward in the past 12 months as criminals now are assured their victims will be unarmed.
There has also been a dramatic increase in break-ins and assaults of the elderly, while the resident is at home.
Australian politicians are at a loss to explain how public safety has decreased, after such monumental effort and expense was expended in ‘successfully ridding Australian society of guns.’
This story of well intentioned government intervention in the rights of lawful individuals to own and possess firearms won’t be seen in the
mainstream US media or on the American evening news. Senator Obama who advocates a similar confiscation in the US will not be reporting any of this to you.
But, the Australian experience speaks for itself. Guns in the hands of honest citizens save lives and property and, yes, gun-control laws
affect only the law-abiding citizens.
if CNBC and Bloomberg are going to show Bernanke all fucking day again, I’m done…..I’m going to stop trading and go watch a movie……
again, Bernanke =
blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah (repeat)
Austin – check out snopes.com for the answer to your question.
http://www.snopes.com/crime/statistics/ausguns.asp
Also, forward this to all your email contacts and Bill Gates will send them each a check for $100…
To Austin, no one, Obama or otherwise will ever confiscate guns from americans. The day that shit trys to go down 5 million pissed gun owners will march on Washington “with their guns in hand” and show Washington that taking their guns just is not going to happen, not today, not any day….. that’s the fact.
They can tax guns and tax bullets all they want, but they will never take them.
SWHC look like it could start to rip. As if it hasn’t already ripped.
Damn thing looks like it’s got it’s sights on $4 today.
$3.73 @ 12:46
top 10 technically ranked stocks, ppt
1 CECO 4.40 4.25 4.34 0.46% 35.65%
2 RGR 4.05 3.05 3.62 1.40% 77.45%
3 COCO 3.75 4.10 3.90 22.26% 19.27%
4 SNDA 3.70 4.20 3.92 0.51% 26.86%
5 AIPC 3.70 3.70 3.70 -7.27% 3.81%
6 APSG 3.65 3.70 3.67 24.83% 9.23%
7 CPSI 3.65 4.30 3.93 16.62% 21.75%
8 ONXX 3.65 3.50 3.59 10.46% 34.34%
9 MNT 3.60 3.00 3.34 -2.62% -3.50%
10 OPTR 3.60 2.30 3.04 14.72% 15.33%
For the record, these are my holdings:
Short
AMZN @ $63
AAPL @ $98.73
CPKI @ $11.25
XOM @ 81.25
DUG (long) @ 24.25
BBY @ 28.50
BBBY @ $25.56
HOTT @ 9.20
V @ 54.75
NTRS @ 59.50
YHOO @ 19.92
Longs
SWHC @ 2.41 (sold half yesterday @ 3.70 and am holding the rest for a move to $5.00)
USO @ 24.00
And that’s it. I remain highly bearish and patient with all the government fuckery. No matter how many happy faces Obama puts on this crap, we’re fucked. And with the VIX this low, we’ve got plenty of bullish complacency still in the market. Just be patient.
To TheArtist
If you look back at what happened with the FFL – that is where big Gov is going. They won’t take your guns – they will bury you in paperwork and fees. Just like Chicago floating the idea of a million in liability to own a gun
OMG!! I see Tiger on the range.
I have a tingle going up my leg.
Just kidding.
Watching a food thing on Travel Channel.
Any New Yorkers been to Maganeros (sic) Italian Store?
Looks damn good right now.
I say we pile up on SPAM…as that will be the next currency…this stuff can out last gold, and you can eat it too!
Speaking of SPAM – HRL looks weak at the current price…Im going short.
Hey Artist,
Tax and mandate $1MM liability insurance:
http://www.wbbm780.com/Proposal-Would-Require-Gun-Owners-To-Carry–1M-Ins/3908122
Master Fly, all bias aside, what is crude oil saying?
SWHC update
If resistance @ 3.75 gives way this is headed to $4.50 – $4.75
SWHC fell from 4.75 to $3 in fall of 08 it happened fast and on little volume compared to the ferocity of buying right now. In other words overhead resistance is minimal and we look like we could fill the gaps down. 1) from 4.25 to 3.75 and another from 4.75 to 4.25
Once $3 broke to the upside 3.75 was the next resistance. Thats where it based for a while in fall of 08 but between 3.75 and 4.75 there is practically NO resistance. This seems like a runaway situation. I wish I still owned the egregious amounts I accumulated near 2.25
Canada made handgun ownership very difficult. They spent over 2 billion dollars registering them (and all rifles), and this is the fall-out:
1) Someone tapped into the database and began stealing all the rare, expensive, antique guns because they had the addresses where the guns were.
2) Events involving criminals using guns (armed robbery for example) were almost never perpetrated with a registered gun.
3) The government who brought in the law got voted out of power (though the silly registry and related laws remain).
And that’s 2 billion that we could have used for something much better and more useful. Like a space program.
Mars.
Good on ya, Henry.
You even got a “Fly conversion” which is not easy, let me tell you…
__________
Jeff Macke
11:55:00 AM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Grading & Trading
I don’t see a lot of great set-ups but I’ll be trading it today just to keep my mind off my shame (and to try and stay in front of a looming 95% tax rate). Here’s the playing field as I see it and the names I’m watching:
* Got an email from a new Minyan last night expressing displeasure (in a polite, reasonable way) with the nanosecond timeframes underlying my flip-flopping trades in the SDS ETF and Morgan Stanley (MS) yesterday. It raises at least 2 points worth mentioning again:
1. This is an extremely fast-moving market, and 2x levered ETFs and banks stocks are leading the way. Keeping the SDS on a very tight leash is something I’ve discussed repeatedly. Yesterday, when the market bounced off the intra-day lows of November 2008 and shot 1% higher, I saw a trading shot that not only wouldn’t last long but would beat me senseless if I wrote first and traded it later. I prefer to stay in front on ideas, and really loathe the idea of coming across as a “magic trade” guy, but feeding the kids is job #1 with communicating the message a distant second.
2. Morgan Stanley moved nearly 20% yesterday. I was long going in, and added at $20 and change, so I’m not claiming I caught all the move. But in this tape, I’m apt to take any gains on a trade. I’d rather hold stocks forever in a bull market but we’ve got to trade the tape we have, not the one we want. Until I start shouting otherwise, just assume I still consider buy-and-hold dead.
* What trades did I make on today’s open? None. I’m small and slightly less short-leaning than I was 24 hours ago.
* I’ve got company in that “stick and move” thinking, according to Steve Wynn (WYNN). The “king of casinos” offered players taking wins off the table and ceasing play as one of the reasons behind his eponymous company’s earnings miss last night. If you’ve built an empire with the sole design goal of maximizing ostentatious luxury in order to get players to stick around long enough to lose money, an environment where hiring Sheryl Crow for a party draws Congressional ire is daunting to say the least. Leaving Las Vegas, indeed.
* That said, as a man of the people who’s willing to do his part by stimulating the economy in private, I promise not to attend any Sheryl Crow concerts in 2009. Sacrifice? Sure. But I’m willing to give up jamming to the contemporary pop stylings of Lance Armstrong’s ex if it means setting an example for the kids.
* Two trades I’d make despite the financial anarchy they’d imply: Buying gold (or some derivative thereof) on a convincing break over $1000 and shorting the market if the S&P 500 tumbles below 740. Sure, I’m late the trades, and I’d be capitalizing on human misery. Cut me some slack, I just gave up Sheryl Crow.
* Would I be late to the gold party? The comparison that leaps to mind is showing up for a New Year’s Eve party tonight. Which is why I can, and will, wait for a breakout. I don’t believe in triple tops or triple bottoms. Preying on human misery or not, buying breakouts and breakdowns gives you tight stop levels you don’t have to think about ($1000 on gold and S&P 741, for those who skipped to this bullet). And emotional markets trade on technicals, suggesting potential “whoosh” action on each trade.
* Regarding that Mars mission, I’m not entirely giving up hope. If we could fake the moon landings convincingly using 1969 technology and blurry footage of a Volkswagen wrapped in tin-foil, today’s CGI technology could certainly give a nation struggling to believe in a nice goal for the next decade. The “mission” (wink) wouldn’t save the ogre-ugly quarter DreamWorks (DWA) just turned in, but a fake Mars project beats the heck out of subsidizing a generation of workers making cars no one wants by a mile.
* Global warming may be as phony as the moon landings but, if I’m reading between the lines of Obama’s speech correctly, Toyota (TM) has the best products and the distinct advantage of not needing to beg an increasingly obnoxious and reluctant Congress for money. As rued in public, I bought around $60 and sold a painfully partial position on the move to $70. I’d be a buyer on a revisit of $60 and a seller at $70. Anything in the middle is simply noise.
With that, I’m off to take my sleep-deprivation-driven logorrhea to my yoga instructor. Don’t worry, she’s been warned.
http://www.google.com/finance?q=TSE%3ANUS
Interesting company with a market cap of $140 million, but $266 million in the bank. Plus they have assets.
Mars.
look i’m on cnbc
Been a loyal reader for about a year and just made the PPT plunge. I am pretty cheap and the only subscriptions that have deemed worthy of my hard earned money are the Fly’s and Reggies if that tells you anything.
Heavy oil buying. I am unloading my overweight DXO right here (I was way way overweight since 1.79) since its also a leveraged play. Prepare for ballsack rippage.
hehe, mars, link says the company has 3 ANUSes, hehehe
Hey, CNBC: STOP SAYING “THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS” YOU FUCKERS!!!! Quit with your gay analogies too! FUCK!
And what the fuck is on Grasso’s empty coconut? His forehead got marked.
The Fly is God.
Jeff Macke should put a tin foil hat atop his chrome dome
Anybody that caught my blip on ZN early this morning caught a sweet 36% on a short …
http://www.ibankcoin.com/flyblog/index.php/2009/02/24/obama-to-cure-cancer/#comment-95348
Congrats and you’re welcome!
happens every time.
Gobble gobble gobble I am coming to eat your brains and balls if you are short oil (the commodity). I am also planning to slurp the brains from liquefied goldbugs and bond bulls.
LOL @ IRIDQ, bought that POS for laffs 10k at .02 a few months ago, sold at .06 today, bought again at .04 an hour ago, now .07, yay pennystocking! Almost 800x normal volume today. Shoulda shorted the gap down too I guess. There’ll probably be another chance for that today though.
go2mars Says:
Canada made handgun ownership very difficult. They spent over 2 billion dollars registering them (and all rifles), and this is the fall-out:
1) Someone tapped into the database and began stealing all the rare, expensive, antique guns because they had the addresses where the guns were.
2) Events involving criminals using guns (armed robbery for example) were almost never perpetrated with a registered gun.
********************************************
Why do you want to accidentally shoot your brother-in-law, and / or have your 8-year-old shoot the neighbor’s 7-year-old while “showing”
him the gun?
You are as dumb as fuckin’ Glenn Beck.
@ go2mars
Canadian gun laws are retarded.
The musings here would be less gyrational in nature if they examined the level at which technical analysis (not the crappy kind) predicts nearly every good play posted here. Anyone looking for a good TA blog that actually makes money?