18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
20,867 Blog Posts

No Reason to Buy Stocks

With today’s spike in my inverse etf’s, “The Fly” was up another 2.8%, much to your chagrin.

Aside from a surprise Fed cut, there is no reason to be long stocks. I mean, really, aside from price action, is there any fundamental reason to go long? The downturn in the economy has just begun. There is a lot of pain left for bullish hand fuckers.

As sure as I’m sitting here, [[INTC]] will print $15, sometime in 2008. The end user is hamstrung. Do not get sucked into PE ratio value traps. The “E’s” are all lies.

Beneath the surface today, [[ABK]], [[MBI]], [[RDN]] and [[PMI]] were obliterated. Should any of them go belly up, look out below; the financials will get drawn and quartered.

Towards the end of the day, I initiated short positions in [[DOW]], [[DD]], [[FCX]] and [[MON]], via [[SMN]]. Additionally, I bought more [[DUG]], anticipating a cascading sell-off in [[XOM]]. And, I bought a little [[SKF]], on this dip.

The notion that the financials have bottomed is laughable. If your brokers are telling you to go long, fire them—for they fucking suck meatloaf.

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Fly Buy: SKF

I bought 2,000 [[SKF]] @ $112.

Disclaimer: If you buy SKF because of this post, Bernanke will raise rates. And, you may lose money.

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Fly Buy: SMN

I bought 10,000 shares of [[SMN]] @ $46.95.

Disclaimer: If you buy SMN because of this post, your local garbage man will spit on your new car. And, you may lose money.

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Stick to the Program

Look, without question I feel the market will be much lower by March. All rallies will be theater, nothing of substance.

Should the Fed cut, I will sell into it, then bulk up on shorts. Because of my bias, I will not buy the dips, even for a trade.

Instead, I will hold cash, then reposition into double inverse etf’s. As of now, I’m looking to buy [[SMN]], which gets me short basic resource stocks, including [[MON]].

Don’t get me wrong, I think MON is a great stock. However, there is a ceiling to the amount I will pay for watermelon seeds.

By the way, what do you chart chomping type think of [[XOM]] here? My technician says: “it’s forming a head and shoulders top here Fly.”

Again, [[DUG]] gets you short XOM.

Bottom line: I’m covering some shorts, but will not attempt to play the upside, since it goes against my long term strategy. Getting cute with trades is the root of all tax losses.

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Here Comes the Bounce

Instead of buying into the bounce, I am covering some of my shorts, via selling [[FXP]], [[EEV]] and a few others.

In short, degenerate OTB guys are trying to catch an emergency Fed rate cut early, buying now. These fat losers think they will sell on Friday, then proceed to buy a new car or boat over the weekend.

Well, I got news for you, fuckface, “The Fly” already bought that boat. It’s mine.

As you can see, oil is breaking down here, dragging lower big-stupid oil stocks. With my money, I will press my bets in [[DUG]] and buy more. I feel oil is on the other side of the mountain now and will soon afflict great damage to those who are long [[XOM]], [[CVX]]— and other big stupid oil companies.

Keep in mind, if the Fed doesn’t cut by Friday, down we go again.

NOTE: With oil knifing lower, [[DCR]] is looking “gangster good.”

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Non-Position Update: MVIS

With the stock down more than 20% today, and some of you still in the stock (unfortunately), I did a little sniffing around.

Apparently two quant funds blew out over 1 million shares today, indiscriminately. Meaning: someone needed to get out, no matter what.

My sources, who speak with management, insist that everything is all good.

Bottom line: I’m not buying the stock because of my written in stone game plan, which is to go long 2nd half of 2008. Plus anyway, I’m bearish as a bear in a bear cave eating bear food.

However, it’s worth noting, people tell me “it’s a screaming buy.”

You’re welcome.

UPDATE: Look for the company to unveil its embedded version of the Picop in February.

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