18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
22,427 Blog Posts

Greetings From Romania

After crying in a filthy alley for two hours, “The Fly,” thanks to his rancid portfolio of bedeviled inverse ETF’s, packed his bags and went to Romania, yet again.

There is nothing left for me to do in America. The recession is over and the bull market is back.

Like losing at a racetrack, “The Fly” lost countless millions in “bets gone wrong,” as the banking sector healed itself overnight and dumb people started buying 2nd and 3rd homes again.

All of a sudden, the dollar is King and the yen is its bitch again. As for the euro: never heard of it.

If you are worried about the strong dollar hurting exports, you are just a worry wart. Our corporations will quickly adjust and shift manufacturing away from the “expensive” factories in China to small “cheap” villages in Africa.

Finally, the whole paradigm has shifted, whereas commodities were once stable investments; they are now subprime banks. And, as you know by looking at [[SKF]] , banks are now farms, where money is grown, harvested then sent to China.

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One of Those Days

We got Vince ‘the bottom caller’ Farrell on CNBC doing what he does best: call bottoms. We got oil down 2 bucks, based upon the good news of death to global growth. At the same time, bank stocks are running with their socks off, thanks to the death of global growth. And, on top of that, we have a Fed meeting today.

My positions are being manhandled by odious market participants who, for some reason, enjoy the prospect of massive dilution and pending insolvency.

That’s neither here or there.

Putting my bias aside, the retailers are prime to high five higher here. Some of my old favorites include: J. Crew Group, Inc. [[JCG]] , Coach, Inc. [[COH]] and Barnes & Noble, Inc. Barnes & Noble, Inc. [[BKS]] .

In addition, food and beverage names should benefit, including Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. [[CMG]] , Hansen Natural Corporation [[HANS]] , PepsiCo, Inc. [[PEP]] and Einstein Noah Restaurant Group, Inc. [[BAGL]] . And, of course, ethanol producers VeraSun Energy Corporation [[VSE]] and Aventine Renewable Energy Holdings, Inc. [[AVR]] , should benefit off the death of corn.

Me, I’m one of those stubborn type. I’d rather drink a gallon of spoiled milk, than fuck around long Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. [[LEH]] .

Nonetheless, you do not need to be as hard headed as I am.

Instead, catch a few trades, drink a beer and throw firecrackers at your neighbors.

I’ll be here, with my face painted blue, waiting for an opportunity to get revenge.

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Oatmeal Time

I don’t have time for this shit. I’ve got an appointment with an oversized bowl of oatmeal, heavily sugared, fairly loose.

Look at the bright side to the [[KOL]] debacle: Santa Claus can afford to give coal to rotten kids again. My guess, Santa is a hardcore coal bear. He’s probably selling James River Coal Company [[JRCC]] short, as we speak.

Now listen me to and quit picking your nose: the commodity sector might bounce today. If the Fed is all dovish and shit, because they think oil is dead; oil will get up and punch them right in the nose—sending energy related stocks up.

However, the trend is broken, so betting on commodities here is equal to lotto.

I like lotto. As a result, I am buying more Agrium Inc. (USA) [[AGU]] here, down $1.25.

Bottom line: expect trickery and misdirection. I, on the other hand, will occupy myself by eating a grotesquely large bowl of oatmeal.

Top pick: AGU

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Fly’s Top 10 Holdings

1. [[FXP]]

2. [[SKF]]

3. Agrium Inc. (USA) [[AGU]]

4. short TCF Financial Corporation [[TCB]]

5. short Vulcan Materials Company [[VMC]]

6. [[SRS]]

7. [[REW]]

8. short Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. [[LEH]]

9. [[DUG]]

10. Lockheed Martin Corporation [[LMT]]

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Plug Me Back Into The Matrix

I hate this shit sometimes. It’s days like this that makes my blood boil and cause my temper to rage out of control.

I just want to get plugged back into the matrix. I want to drink wine, eat a few dozen rib eyes (heavily salted) and throw shit at my trader/servant.

Instead, I get to deal with this motherless whore of a market. Up and down, up and down, when it stops you get fucked by a clown.

Sure, the commodities got busted out; but that’s it bucko. The last oasis has been carpet bombed by assholes in a Federal Reserve A-10 warthog.

My bottom fishing into Agrium Inc. (USA) [[AGU]] proved to be somewhat fruitful, with most of my shares getting printed below $78. Also, I enjoyed big gains in [[FXP]] , [[SKF]] , [[SRS]] , [[DUG]] , [[TWM]] and short Vulcan Materials Company [[VMC]] .

My TCF Financial Corporation [[TCB]] short enjoyed a little green. I’ll kill that bitch after I’m done with my AGU trade.

I cannot stress to you enough how cataclysmic this commodity debacle is for the financial industry. Recently, a whole slew of pensions and asset managers upped their weightings in commodities, only to be fucked like a dog a few months later.

That’s it. It’s all over.

Go enjoy your bank stocks. I’ll be in Romania, tending to my mountain goats, while practicing my rock throwing accuracy.

NOTE: For the day I was up 1.44%.

NOTE II: Because I’ve been all over the road, tonight I will post my top 10 holdings.

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Buy the Blood?

The commodity related stocks have been ape raped. Is now the time to buy them?

Well, looking back on past dips, the answer is unequivocally yes. However, understanding the Fed’s desire to justify low interest rates, in order to help the banks, commodities need to have their comeuppance.

The following are on my commodity watch list:

FCX , Southern Copper Corporation (USA) [[PCU]] , Bucyrus International, Inc. [[BUCY]] , The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] , Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (USA) [[POT]] , CF Industries Holdings, Inc. [[CF]] , Monsanto Company [[MON]] , Agrium Inc. (USA) [[AGU]] , Transocean Inc. [[RIG]] , Ultra Petroleum Corp. [[UPL]] , Arena Resources, Inc. [[ARD]] , United States Steel Corporation [[X]] , Olympic Steel, Inc. [[ZEUS]] , Peabody Energy Corporation [[BTU]] and Cleveland-Cliffs Inc [[CLF]] .

Pretty bloody, eh?

Today’s decline makes me want to go drive out to some fucking farm and burn it down. I want to take a John Deere tractor and drive it into a sinkhole.

Nonetheless, it’s worth noting, my AGU position is minimal. But still, 8 fucking points in one day is ridiculous.

On the plus side, once again, are the banks. I cannot believe the resurgence in MBIA Inc. [[MBI]] and Ambac Financial Group, Inc. [[ABK]] . Also, shares of Wachovia Corporation [[WB]] are rounding off the intra-day lows and gaining strength.

Currently, my largest position is [[FXP]] . I am comfortable with it holding here, due to its short exposure in SNP , CNOOC Limited (ADR) [[CEO]] and PetroChina Company Limited (ADR) [[PTR]] .

Bottom line: This market is very tricky. Be careful not to bet big in any direction. The volatility reminds of a Pepsi can opener. You know that little metal thingy that pierces the can, allowing you to guzzle the bullshit liquids inside of it? Eventually, you keep moving the metal thingy back and forth it falls off.

Fuck it UPDATE: I am buying 500 share blocks of AGU here. I will be doing so, in big balled fashion, until the bell rings.

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Commodity Bust is BAD For the Market

Watching FCX , Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (USA) [[POT]] , Agrium Inc. (USA) [[AGU]] , Monsanto Company [[MON]] , Southern Copper Corporation (USA) [[PCU]] and a myriad of other commodity related names trading lower screams panic to me. Apparently, lots of funds and investors are getting punched in the scrotum, as the last place to hide (commodities) gets obliterated.

Believe me, no one hates ag more than me. I’ve had my battles being short POT/long [[SMN]] for ages, waiting for the collapse to occur. However, initially, a fierce breakdown in these names is tragically bad for the market. Understand, people have been hiding in these names. Take that away, and you have a new round of wealth destruction.

A true bear market, if I may be so bold.

Bottom line: If you are long commodities, you might as well get hedged by going long SMN or [[DUG]] . And, at the same time, be prepared to scalp a quick trade, vulture style, off the bloodletting in stocks like FCX.

Overall, this dive may prove to cast a very negative shadow over Wall Street.

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Asshat Trading

The market is ripping higher thanks to the collapse of crude. The unfunny part about this commodity bust is the amount of hedge funds long the space. It’s revenge of the banking nerds and they have their water pistols pointed at the guys who have been poleaxing them for more than a year.

Keep in mind, the people who are gaining ground here are badly damaged. The funds that are long banks are far gone. Redemptions will be made and many of them will go out o’ business. However, with the commodities getting busted out, the best performers are now suffering, especially those who had short banks/long commodities pair trades on.

What does this mean?

Well, it means death for the financial industry, especially the trading desks who have been heavily long commodities, like Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] and Morgan Stanley [[MS]] .

Literally, there is no place to hide, unless you are a ‘space alien magician’ and possess the ability to dodge nuclear bomb hand grenades and venomous snake bites while asleep.

As you know, dollar strength is the foundation of this fuckery. Keep in mind, much of our export growth is directly attributed to the weak dollar position. If you take that away, we lose our edge.

Recognizing how the energy trade is impossible, I sold out of some of my oil longs, Ultra Petroleum Corp. [[UPL]] , Occidental Petroleum Corporation [[OXY]] , Suncor Energy Inc. (USA) [[SU]] , in order to raise cash and stop the bleeding. I will buy more Agrium Inc. (USA) [[AGU]] , under $80. Thus far, that was a stupid trade.

In addition, I will hold off on any further [[SKF]] buys. I prefer [[FXP]] instead, considering it gets you short PetroChina Company Limited (ADR) [[PTR]] and SNP .

Truly, this is a market made for an asshat.


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