18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
21,270 Blog Posts

Bottom Fishers Wear Pink Dresses

Considering how gay everything is, the market is behaving quite well, with gains in a variety of stocks. Frankly, one (I) would think the market, with all the bad news, deserves to get its fucking mustache punched off. Nevertheless, here we are, sitting pretty, and the market has a full grown Rollie Fingers ‘stache.

[[REW]] is down slightly thanks to [[HPQ]]. In general, tech is weak, with the notable exception of the bastards at [[RIMM]]. Being both long and short RIMM, I am somewhat conflicted and don’t know which way to root.

[[USM]] and [[GRMN]] have been “de-balled.” GRMN is a homo stock. No one likes their stupid devices. Sell it twice.

Finally, [[ARTW]] has been “mushroom clouded” in recent days, proving not all ag plays are equal. And, judging by the current tone of the market, I sense a rally is in the cards. You might want to refrain from adding to short positions, at least until the end of the day.

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REM – Bad Day

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jBWdRMQfjdo 450 300]

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Ball-Less Rally De-Cocked in Late Trading

I’ll have you know, “The Fly” is extraordinarily busy today, with dinner parties to attend and gold bricks to count. Just feel comfort in knowing, I made money today, despite this mornings sharp spike, egregiously due to England “going Commy” via Northern Rock.

Apparently, after the bell, [[HPQ]] posted a good number. No surprise there, really. I do not expect the numbers of bellwether tech names to be hit until the 2nd half of 2008. If your IQ is above 120, you will take the two bucks in HPQ— and fucking run with it.

My investment philosophy is shifting a bit towards killing commercial REITS, via [[SRS]]. In addition, I am slowly reducing my downside exposure to the financials and will continue to do so, the closer we get to the March 18th Fed Day. However, I will “redouble” my shorting efforts, if the sector bounces.

Finally, I am amazed that sane people are not alarmed over the spike in gold. Frankly, there is way too much complacency in the market, as indicated by a paltry 25 reading on the Vix index. If you haven’t done so yet, be sure to protect your downside, going into earnings warning season, scheduled to occur in about two weeks.

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Redux: Bear vs. Bull

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=THn4OmwxT_I 450 300]

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Fly Buy: REW, SRS

I bought 5,000 [[REW]] @ $72.90 and 2,000 [[SRS]] @ $113.

Disclaimer: If you buy REW or SRS because of this post, your patents will be deemed worthless. And, you may lose money.

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Fly Sell: RIMM

I sold short 4,000 [[RIMM]] @ $93.

Disclaimer: If you sell short RIMM because of this post, your wife will leave you for Dennis Kneale. And, you may lose money.

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What’s Good For Oil is Good For Oil

Oil stocks are fucking ripping today, with monster gains in [[HOC]], [[DRQ]], [[VLO]], [[TSO]], [[OXY]], [[WNR]], [[FTO]] and [[DK]]. Within oil, refinery stocks are up the most, due to nice gains in gasoline. In my opinion, it’s still too early to load up on the refiners. I’d rather wait until mid March, at the beginning of the “driving season.”

Farm related stocks have gone parabolic, with outrageous moves in [[CF]], [[POT]], [[MOS]], [[AGU]], [[LNN]] and [[MON]].

Without doubt, there is a looming shortage of food. I’ve outlined my food commodity bull case numerous times. However, I believe too much cash is chasing too few stocks, effectively inflating the commodity related names to unsustainable levels. Thus far, buying [[SMN]] has been a fucking loser, thanks to the gains in MON. Nonetheless, I will continue to average in, in order to take advantage of when the fucking wind comes out of the sector. Trust me, at some point, they will break lower.

With regards to the general market tone:

Brokerage stocks are weak, with losses in [[BSC]], [[GS]], [[CS]] and [[LEH]]. In addition, retail related names are weakening, as the morons who manage your money realize that higher commodity prices, at a time when people are “jailhouse poor,” is a worst case scenario.

Don’t get me wrong, I do not wish death and destruction to all stocks, just the ones I am short.

Right now, [[REW]] seems like a low risk short side play, with [[MSFT]] being the largest holding. Keep in mind, MSFT is breaking the bank for a 3rd rate internet company ([[YHOO]]). With all the arb players leaning on Softee’s stock, I think buying REW is a no brainer and a good bet against big tech.

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Bagels Are on Fire

So, England nationalizes Northern Rock and I’m supposed to feel better about myself? I don’t think so, fuckfaces.

At the end of the day, the price of a bagel is out of control inflated, selling for nearly $1 per, thanks to skyrocketing flour expenses. We have commodity prices running like internet stocks circa 1999, unemployment on the rise and a “tapped out” consumer—due to depreciating home values. And on top of that, we have the worst credit crisis since the Great Depression.

Don’t you fucktards get it?

The price of the bagel is going up. How can we live with 1 dollar bagel expenses and what will we eat?

Answer: We can’t. Nothing.

Seriously, because food is so vital, paying very high food expenses can actually deflate other prices—enabling the Government to declare low core cpi data. Think about it.

If people aren’t shopping at [[M]], because everyone is spending their money on inflated essentials, the price of 100% wool sweaters will drop.

In the meantime, I anticipate a long/arduous battle for the market. There are too many money managers, with far too much assets. These men are stupid, mind you. They will “acquire” shares of XYZ in the middle of a “thermo-nuclear” war because that shit will be “priced in.”

With my money, I will sell short more [[RIMM]], [[LEH]] and “acquire” more [[SRS]] and [[DUG]].

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