Let’s Talk About Something Important

Part 1:

Part 2:

If you did not read Chart Addict’s post, regarding handcuffing strange men to metal pipes, I strongly suggest doing so. Great stuff.

I want to expand upon what he said, with a little “Fly twist.”

I have tried all sorts of investment methods. During my career, I have been a Warren Buffett type of investor, bond guy, small cap guy, big cap guy, niche play guy, day trader, swing trade and finally, what I am now: “don’t give a fuck ’cause I am right guy.”

Everyone out there, trying to bank some coin in the markets, will endure staggering losses. It’s part of the game. However, with experience you can skirt dumb rookie mistakes, most likely executed by most of you retards— day in and day out.

My “Godliness” came to me, in increments, after the crash of 2000. Naturally, I made obscene coin in 98-2000; but who didn’t? However, only after wiping out my personal brokerage account, within a few quick weeks in 2000, did I learn the value of “Trading with the Gods.”

See, “The Gods” don’t give a shit about bull markets or bear. It’s important to understand your risk threshold and NEVER approach it. All of my big mistakes came when I was pressured to cover a short or sell out a long, due to margin issues. During the years of 2001-2003, I pigeon holed myself, trading only on a cash basis, fucking around with big dividend stocks and distressed debt. An experience of solitude, to say the least. But it gave me time to see things in slow motion, instead of the knee jerk action of idiot high beta stocks.

If you think stocks are stupid, you should see the bullshit that takes place in junk bonds. But that’s a whole new topic.

Before I execute a trade, my mind is already set on where that stock should be, within 1 day, 1 week, 1 month or even 6 months time. And, I always have a general thesis to trade around. For example, in 2006 I loved oil/gas. In 2007 I was a big restaurant/beverage fan. In 2008 I was all about shorting the shit out of China and banks. And in 2009 I am all about shorting commercial Re and oil.

The market runs in cycles and it is important to identify what cycle we are in, prior to setting a thesis.

After that, you need to understand that even though you feel a stock like BAC should go to zero within 6 months, it can triple in two, before going lower. NEVER put yourself in a situation that will force you out of a position, because “the pain is too great.” Whatever plan you have in your little head will likely be tested, via egregious losses. Be prepared for losses.

Fuck all of the greed. Greed is good, but it bankrupts more people than a drunken CDO manager at a Bear Sterns annual BBQ.

I view investing like driving on a road. I know where my destination is, short VNO, BXP, ESS, KIM etc. However, on the way, I might drive off road for a quick snack (scalp trades) or take a nap (cash). Nonetheless, at the end of the day, I know where I am going; and I know that I will be right.

Hence, “Trading with the Gods.”

UPDATE: Santelli still on fire.

Big fucking house for a little fucking man.

UPDATE: Denninger

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PbNJU_5jLCc&feature=channel_page 450 300]

I warned you to sell out of the refiners and the oils. You chose to ignore me.

I warned you that commercial Re was due to get lambasted. You bought a building.

I warned you that WFC was fortune cookie. You opened up a new checking account.

I warned you against betting with the criminals at XOM. You drank Texas Tea.

Now, I am warning you to stay away, for this market is impossible to game. You can mess around with gold, oil, currencies and stocks until your head falls off. At the end of the day, the game is rigged.

I am working on a new investment thesis, which will be unveiled on Monday, exclusively on The PPT, which, incidentally, will launch on Monday. What a coincidence! It has a lot of do with gloom and doom and nothing to do with hanging out with men who wear 10 gallon hats.

At the end of the day, “The Fly” wins all the time, even when he is saddled with cash. For the day, I powered ahead, led by gain in my oil shorts. Frankly, today was my best day in more than a week, mainly due to my previous neutral stance.

I am sick of the rumor milling at CNBC and Realmoney.com.

The clowns are scurrying about, offering all sorts of rumors, from capital injections at BAC to outright nationalization for C. Then we have the asshole, Geithner, telling people there will be more details of his “plan” revealed for us plebs, early next week.

Look, I can’t stop you from grabbing hold of that one arm bandit. All I know is, this market is not safe, on the long or short side. We are too oversold, yet on the precipice of economic collapse.

“The Fly” always has an opinion on where to place money. However, for once, I am going to sit this fucker out, grab some popcorn, and watch the rats run around on the sinking ship.

We all know the danger spots: C, BAC, WFC, USB, STI, FITB, ZION, GE, HIG and KEY, just to name a few. But, who will be left holding the bag? Lots of managers are long these names, U.S. financial bellwethers, and will now begin to suffer the ramifications of poor risk management practices. The whole system is intertwined. A failure of the banks above will cause a domino effect that will take down money management firms, other banks large and small, insurers, annuity players and legendary investors.

Below is rough sketch look at the firms with the most exposure to the companies listed above:

C: STT, BCS, Capital World Investors,  Fidelity, Vanguard

WFC: Berkshire Hathaway, STT, BCS, Fidelity, Canguard

BAC: STT, BCS, Vanguard, Temasek Holdings, Fidelity

USB: STT, BCS, Berkshire Hathaway, Capital World Investors, Marisco

STI: Capital World Investors, STT, BCS, Vanguard, UBS

FITB: AXA, Lord Abbett, UBS, STT, BCS

ZION: BCS, STT, WFC, Argyll Research, Vanguard

KEY: Fidelity, STT, BCS, Hotchkis, TROW

HIG: STT, AXA, Capital Growth, NWQ, BCS

GE: BCS, STT, Vanguard, Capital World Investors, BK

It appears the ungodly  folks at STT have a lot of worrying to do over the weekend.

No, at some point GE is not a buy. At some point GE catches a credit downgrade and shits down Immelt’s neck.

I just sold out of my entire BUCY position, into strength. It is not the price I was looking for, but fuck it.

MCO is catching liquid swords to the cranium, as investors realize that there is no point in having credit agencies that do not function properly. I say “MCO to zero.” Why the fuck not?

As for oil:

Oh boy. You oil barrel loving motherfuckers are about to get bowled on by men levitating on space aged hoverboards, who gingerly sip Monster Energy Soda, while kicking old men into traffic. There is no reason to be long oil stocks here. For the most part, most of the oil stocks that you see on your little bullshit screen will get cut in half again or file for bankruptcy protection.

I repeat: You do not walk away from a 70% decline in crude unscathed. The executives at XOM are purposely manipulating their share price, through buybacks. What responsible manager buys $15 billion of his own stock, inside of 2 quarters, all the while the core commodity behind his business drops by 70%?

Look, we all see what’s happening here, right? Are we clear? For once, I am trying to genuinely help you help yourself. There is no getting out of this mess. I am pissed the fuck off, just thinking about how my kids will make a living in 10 years. I am pissed off that our leaders are unable to instill confidence in the markets.

I gave the long side a try. I fucking bought a bunch of shit a few weeks ago, but quickly sold most of them out, when I sensed a change for the worse was a comin’. Right now, about 10% of my holdings are long, 35% short and 55% cash.

I will not add to shorts. I will not try to bottom fish. Believe me, something is going to happen real soon that will make you cry into your SHAM-WOW rag. With my money, aside from betting against oil (DUG, ERY)and select cre (ESS, MAC, SLG, FRT), I am sitting this crisis out.

For all of the shit I talk about “Chinese Fuckery,” I have it all wrong. It’s “American Fuckery” that I must keep a watchful eye on.

Unlike the capitalists in China, here in America, fucking loser scum bags walk around, with hunched backs, asking for handouts—and they get it! Here in America, billion dollar hedge fund managers dedicate their shallow lives, creating elaborate ponzi schemes, instead of creating wealth for others.

Here in America, our politicians are corrupt as the night is black. And, here in America no one gives a fuck.

My apologies to China.

Goodnight.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zxtn6-XQupM 450 300]