NEW WEEK, NEW FLY POSITIONS!

Good day

My new trading stratagem is in full effect today, as I sashayed out of present positions this morning for +74bps. I will be repositioning into WEEKLY holds after the 12 o’clock hour, not based upon superstition but science.

Above is an hourly chart of returns per hour for the QQQ since June. As you can clearly see, evidently, my decision to wait is based not upon hunches or rote base instincts, but eloquent and incontrovertial data science.

There isn’t much to say, since my opinion on the matter is no longer relevant. I have been absorbed into the Borg. My resistance was and still us futile. I will, however, supplement my positioning with day trades and hedges, something I am still quite able to willing to do.

I have adopted a new banner, from which I will now resume a reign of terror not seen since the days of the crusades.

Believe when when I tell you, that flag you see above “might” be representative of some depraved gay subculture trend, but I have adopted it here as a unifying force for all people: the blacks, the jews, the orientals, the brahmins (no Dalits permitted), and of course the whites to ATTACK and defeat the most annoying group of people on the face of the earth: the bulls.

I think we can all agree, all religions and races alike, that our common enemy are these fucking bulls and their talking points to almost always, at all times, prefer HIGHER stock prices no matter the news or the condition of the economy. These people, in my estimation, pose a risk to mankind as a whole and need to be defeated.

In this day and age of hatred and divisiveness, there are bloggers out there, who also run trading rooms, who talk extreme levels of shit and draw wedges between people based upon any number of issues. There are rumors, at least I am told, that some of these bloggers even cast out his own readers and members based upon investment preferences of cartoons rather than stocks. I am not here to cast judgement on those aforementioned bloggers, but instead offer a unifying cause that even transvestites can get behind (pause).

Let us set aside our hatred and come together under that flag and KILL the bull market and everyone in it. This way, after it’s all said and done, we might live in peace and harmony without FOMC rigging and Goldman Ballsachs/ JP Morgan schemes.

Post Pax Americana, I intend to become a rancher of sorts, walk about my land with a large hat and a lasso, presiding over my cattle — squinting at wolves in the brush to fuck off and to not even think about eating my family of future steaks.

Anyway, I hope you have a nice weekend and enjoy the ladders you’re on for the Xmas decorations you’re programmed to display each and every holiday season — like retarded children festooning your homes with Satan Claws trinkets and fanciful fictional beings who come to life every year for the express purposes of imposing RUINOUS costs upon your person.

GOOD DAY!

Markets did a lot better than the indices suggested. Inside Stocklabs I created my own fucking indices and the general index comprising of 4,000 stocks was +1.3% today.

I managed +275bps in trading and +175bps in the quant.

To repeat, I am no longer WHIP SAWING like a fucking moron all day with my entire account. I am only whipsawing with a smaller portion using leverage. The rest of my positions are fixed each monday using the algos.

That’s all there is to it. I credit myself to be some sort of savant fucked for face when it comes to stocks. But I think I might’ve just cured my unhappiness and emancipated myself from being a TRADE-SLAVE in exchange for a rather GENTEEL existence as a mere manager of my assets. This new trading method will lead to a long period of success and fulfillment. I can envision myself now CAVORTING, sashaying even, doing all sorts of decadent things whilst my portfolio works on auto drive, on par with serving and DRINKING martinis whilst having your Tesla auto drive you across a pastoral landscape with nothing but sunshine and golden skies as a backdrop.

Look, I am deserving of win. Just today the FUCKED FACES at Pottery Barn called me up and said “we lost your furniture” and there’s not a damned thing I can do about it for the next few months. They have to get some 11 yr old Thai boy to make me a new one. In the meantime, my living room is fitted with a Pottery Barn couch that looks like a Tasmanian devil gnawed at its legs whilst in the shipping crate from Thailand en route to me. Those rotten hell bastards said I can’t get a new couch until February. So I am stuck without a chair, gnawed out couch, and a general discontentment just swashbuckling though my life for the better part of the last decade!

So fuck you very much, I will accept this 2.75% return and like to think my problems with the market have been all but solved from here going forward.

More of the same middling down day without any real energy in it. You can tell the bears are dickless pieces of shit, unable to truly mount an attack on the bulls. I’d like, ideally, to see markets down — say — 5,000 points. With a 5000 point drubbing, all of the bulls would be put into their places. Sadly, I have been doing this forever and the sharp drops NEVER last. The bear lifespan is no more than 1-2 years and then his brain is skull fucked for another 5 until he’s able to recover enough energy to strike back.

I +2.2% today and I deserve those gains, mainly because I am a good person. People think I am rather polite and well mannered, although at times there are enemies of mine who hate my guts and hope that I die. But who cares? We all die. Most of us go about our lives making fools of ourselves, saying crazy stuff — and a select few actually carry out crazy ideas with action. My words are mainly tailored for the internets. In real life, I mind my business and rarely even look at my neighbors, let alone attempt to carry on lengthly discussions. I would not call myself a recluse — but I certainly don’t give a fuck about social circles.

Travel?

What the fuck for — when I can see all of that shit on the TV. Nevertheless, Mrs Fly has ordered us to travel to Europe this spring and I agreed — but only because I have a suspicion that Europe will be completely destroyed soon and I’d hate to miss out on all of the GOOD FOOD before ICBMs level the place.

Lads

The jobs numbers were good. We are in the midst of a soft landing. Nothing can stop the buying.

I wanted to briefly touch upon my life as a trader.

It’s fucking exhausting trying to figure out each and every turn. In recent months, due to my obsessive behavior, I have micro managed my account — doing between 50-100 trades PER DAY with little to show for it. I had ups and I had downs; but at the end of the day — I have my dick in my hand and have been flat.

My quality of life has been ABHORRENT — always out there running about for deals and collapses — throwing dry hay into fires because it’s fun and waiting impatiently for the end of Pax Americana.

The solution (maybe).

LET THE FUCKING QUANT INVEST ON MY BEHALF. After all, it’s my brain just digitized without the emotion. I will turn it over once per week — every monday — and instead of using our 1mo algo I will use the 1 week.

Simple.

To boost my returns and/or protect my account from the ending of Pax Americana, I will employ LEVERAGE to sell short or boost returns with other longs. The idea is to keep a 100% long portfolio at all times and use my instincts on an intraday or overnight scale to outperform even MOAR.

Thus far, I am +2.1% today, as I walked into today with a long panic SOXS position at 22% of my account — and I booked it for a 6% gain.

Presently I have a small 10% hedge in SQQQ and might cut it loose or add to it later on in the day — depending on my mood.

BOTTOM LINE: The economy seems to be doing unbelievably resilient with today’s jobs numbers exceeding expectations. The Fed hikes, and the war, have ZERO effect on the economy — as evidenced by all of the data.

Good day

On this first day of “trading around” a long only portfolio I pretended to be a bull, all the while trading in and out of inverse and upside ETFs. The net result was “success” as I only LOST $2600 or -0.36%, whilst booking trading profits of $2600. In other words, had I not traded anything and only kept long, I would’ve had DOUBLE the losses.

Hence the term comes to mind, “The Fly wins all the time, even when he’s losing badly.”

Markets looked like shit today, as it does on most days I bother to really look at it. Ergo, I took a 22% position in SOXS — because who can fucking stop me? I am +50bps in the AHs on the whole kit and caboodle thanks to this long penis sized position in SOXS.

What can I say? I am a permanent bear who meekly wants to only see the bare minimum Pax Americana destroyed.

These are the last days lads. BATTEN DOWN THE HATCHES. The big one is coming soon!

My Quant closed +1.07%, now +17% for the year. Name a better quantitative strategy.

XMAS LOVERS: GET YOUR NEW IBC/SL MERCH NOW — for the wife and kids. New COLLAPSE sweaters. OR, dress up like a hedge fund manager with your new Stocklabs vest.

ALSO, you might want to buy junior my books as bedtime tales.

The 10 yr is -15bps to 3.55%, after the Fed said they would HIKE by 50bps in December. The way bonds are trading now would suggest the FOMC will EASE in 2023, which isn’t happening.

The dollar is down 1% against the Euro and risk is on.

Markets aren’t really rallying, but we are digesting yesterday’s gains quite well.

My Quant is +155bps and the final quant portfolio for 2022 was been posted. It has been an impressive year for that strategy, so good I’ve decided to allocate my trading account into a weekly version of it and trade tactically around it.

Fundamentally, we are doomed. EPS are down 30% YOY but markets want higher. So what can we do other than give in and follow the peanut shells?

We’re at the lovely part of the cycle that denial has taken on levels of delusion and market participants pretend, mostly because it’s fun, that their version of reality is the one that will shape the future. For example, under normal conditions an earnings miss at CRM would result in most SAAS stocks getting hammered to pieces. But instead of focusing on CRM, the market chose to focus on OKTA — a marginal player who beat numbers and is +20%. The SAAS index inside Stocklabs is +1.7% for the session, a number that should be impossible with CRM down 10%.

The Dow is down 320, NASDAQ is up and crude is +2.5% but crude stocks are weak — because fuck you. I have to be honest here and just say it: I don’t agree with the bullishness of the market but I have to respect the price action. Because of this, I am forcing myself to maintain a 100% long only portfolio and will instead hedge and/or trade around it based on the machinations of my mind.

I sold out of November quant this morning, +1.28%. I will be issuing the final quant for 2022 around 12pm.

Before I get into what I think will happen into the end of year, I want to discuss November.

The month was a dud, only +1.4% for the SPY, Dow up a little more, but IWM was down up until the Powell speech today that caused an absolute explosion of prices higher, with stocks exploding for +4%. This pushed the gain for all stocks up to around 3.4% for the month. If you did better than that, congrats.

The whole push higher was and is predicated on the repeated notion of a “Fed pivot”, which is partially obvious and partially dangerous since we know the Fed cannot keep hiking in fear of destroying the economy and also we know that every single rally higher has been matched with a spike in commodities.

Here is my evidence.

People tend to only look at gas and oil but the commodity markets are much bigger than that and the prices of everything going UP does not bode well for inflation. On a whole, the raw commodity basket inside Stocklabs was up 6% for November.

The market was mainly buoyed by a weakened dollar (down 4% for Nov), lower rates, and assumption of a soft landing. If all true, we have good reason to rally. After all, the unemployment data has been ok and spending seems fairly robust. If I didn’t know better, I’d say the hike in rates was having a little to no effect on business — which doesn’t seem logical at all. Then again, the war in Ukraine was supposed to lead to all sorts of commodity shortages and we have seen a substantial drop in all of the Russia-Ukraine centric commodities the past 6 months. The rationale for these declines has been slowing in China or overall slowing in global markets — a “de-globalization” trade which goes against what we are seeing today in stocks — up so much on soft landing expectations.

Then there are those who credit the rise in industrials to some nirvana taking place in US industry. Apparently there is a wide swath of American companies “coming home” to open up plants in the US, bolstering the economy. Again, this seems fanciful to me, as the whole point of the mult-national brand of crony capitalism is to seek out the lowest wages and import back to the US. With minimum wages rising in every single state, it seems incredulous that large corporations would abandon their 20 year plans in exchange for small shifts in FX markets over small periods of time.

For this rally to continue, we’d need more of the same:

lower dollar
lower rates
lower inflation
lower Fed hikes
lower commodity prices
Better than expected economic results

As for me, I entirely squandered the month, down 1.3%, of which -0.55% was achieved today in a most egregious way — fully long but with a late day 20% allocation to SQQQ which lost me 4%. I am carrying this hedge into tomorrow.

Generally speaking, I have traded flat for nearly 6 months in large part to my disbelief in any rallies and, at the same time, I’ve been reticent to short too much into the hole for fear of days like today. The net result has been slow and methodical progress or regression, quite the opposite from the beginning of the year which led to my +50% gains.

To reconcile this I’ve decided, at least for the time being, to employ the tactics I use with my quant, but instead of using the 1 month algo I will use the 1 week algo and simply reallocate once per week and trade around it.

My confidence lies in the fact that I am still fairly good at catching the downside momo and intraday trades, whilst at the same time keeping a fully long portfolio that has proven to be excellent this year. My quant closed the month +5.7% and is now +16% for the year and it has beaten me the past 4-5 months.

Overall, I am harder on myself than I reveal. Losing 1.3% in a month should not upset me, since it’s really nothing. Last month I made 3.3% and I haven’t lost money in the market since 2016. Nevertheless, I expect better for myself and keep missing out on trades that seem obvious but for whatever reason fail to act in time, sort of like today’s boondoggle with SQQQ. Had I just done nothing, my trading would’ve been up more than 1% today.

I believe the nature of the rally to be misleading and it will eventually be revoked. All of the overly optimistic viewpoints are based on ideologies that no longer exist: such as the Fed nationalizing the bond market to help stocks go up. The Fed hiking 50bps in December isn’t the same as the Fed cutting by 50bps. You cocksuckers are out of your god damned minds and I hope you permanent bulls die and rot in hell for causing me so much grief.

Classic spike post Fed speech, which we already knew was coming but so many of us opted to not act. The NASDAQ has spike more than 150 in the past 10 mins after Powell said the FOMC might slow the pace of hikes starting the December meeting.

The net result, as you could imagine, perversion on a scale that would make any ardent bear sick. We are seeing Chinese stocks, EV, FANG, and even the oils rise. The fucking gold miners are rising too.

Now whether this rally sticks is another story. Often times we get these initial Fed spikes only to collapse later on after the sugar rush wanes.

I will not be chasing into this lift, as I am content with small gains or losses on the last day of November.