THE SEMIS ARE TRAPPED IN A FAG-BOX

Good day

The last time I discussed the semiconductors I was prescient in the sense that November was going to hoist upon us a terrific rally of sorts, gleeful turkey loving market trades piled in and piled the fuck out for a magnanimous trade of +20%. Since then the index has been stuck, TRAPPED EVEN, inside the fag-box. Observe.

My analysis is as follows:

If you’re looking for the SMH break out of this prison it finds itself in, let me remind you that it is not going to happen. The keys have been tossed out and the locks are very strong. Overall, the facility in inescapable — surrounded by a moat filled with deadly sharks and outside the perimeter there are bears.

You feel good today due to recency bias. This is a mental disorder that greatly afflicts mostly low IQ market participants, who regularly soil themselves when markets trade down. As soon as it trades up, these submentals jump up and practically smash their heads against the ceiling — so excited by the markets resolve. Truth is, the market’s true resolve is to go lower. Any brief period of time that elapses with actual gains should be considered something of a gift that should be taken, POST HASTE.

I am higher by 1.7% today, not because I am particularly fond of the market but because I am fully invested based upon the advice provided to me by my computer brain inside Stocklabs. I discussed this in great length before. But if you’re just tuning in now, I am using the algos for weekly picks that I will hold no matter what — supplemented by trades that I might do intra-day and overnight, which are mainly hedges.

I was tempted to close out my 15% SQQQ numerous times this morning but just couldn’t pull the trigger. It’s like a safety blanket for me, since I’m 100% long with picks exclusively from Stocklabs. With those picks, I’m up 1.6% today and if being honest here, I’m quite happy with myself. The pressure to scrounge to look for money grubbing ideas has been eliminated. The system has proven to be reliable and with my Intra day trades and overnight hedges, it’s very possible that I’m on the cusp of glory and attaining a high quality existence.

As for markets, we all pray for its downfall. But who are we kidding? The son of a bitch is strong and is bouncing today, so watch out if you’re net short.

Oil is up. Tech is strong etc.

Markets dipped at open and now straight the fuck up. Sound familiar?

I have a BAN on new users to comment on the blog and it has been that way for several years now — not because I hate you and want you to die — but because I haven’t gotten around to a site redesign and have been harangued by spam. In the event you feel like extricating yourselves from Twitter and other venues and comment on the olde blog here, if you have not been preapproved — you’re plum out of luck until I do the fucking redesign.

So now I will ask you, the unwashed reader, a question — one you cannot answer because you have not been approved for comment.

WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?

I’ve been playing with this Chatgpt all day, the google killer.

Here is a poem it created for me.

A BEAUTIFUL CHATGPT POEM $SQQQ pic.twitter.com/UWokIxs01P

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) December 7, 2022

Very lovely.

Markets are doing a lot of nothing, quite boring which usually means a fucking rampage is just beyond the bend. I, however, am not closing out hedges because I have hope, hope for a grimmer future.

At any rate, not much to report. Breadth is 52% and things can go either way.

Wish me luck!

We popped as soon as the market opened to a large degree, luring in a fresh batch of permanent bulls into the markets furnace. We are now roasting them and selling down pretty heavily. The NASDAQ FUTS were sharply lower overnight -150+, then we popped up to +30 and now we are -75.

My prediction is as follows:

More trickery and then afternoon swan dive into an empty pool of rocks. I only have a 5% position in SQQQ, but reserve the right, BY LAW, to increase it up to 40%.

At this point in my life, I just want to see fireworks.

This is exactly what is going to happen.

There is a sense of entitlement in this market — with a cadre of traders solely depending upon fantasy and dreams of success to magically produce before their very own eyes, which in turn will afford them extravagances which in turn will produce partners to fornicate with in acts of grave debauchery. Let me remind you, the idea you are deserving of anything is folly. You get what you deserve and whether you like it or not is grossly irrelevant.

To start the day, I was entitled and delighted to see gains of 2%. I caught a buyout with VVNT and my hedges worked and I just held 100% long waiting for the cadre of optimistic dip buyers to step in and bring forth gains of perversion. Instead, market longs were offered the Black Flag, no surrender. One by one I bore witness to my comrades receiving bayonets into their livers. To escape this fate, I smarty traded and made 11 day trades, with 10 producing profits. Had it not been for my trading, my day would’ve ended in misery with me feeling dejected and depressed. Instead I stand before you like a man in the gymnasium hopped up on HGH, anabolic steroids and caffeine, down just 41bps for the day.

My hunch, or my feeeeeelings, point to an idea of Christmas joy and stocked market rallies. But then I get to thinking about the Dow +20% the past two months and all of the scam and all of the fiction and come to realize the bulls are going to be broken into pieces this holiday season. Whether you celebrate Christmas of Hanukkah, or perhaps even the CIA holiday of Kwanza: you shall be dispatched Sir into the depth of hades where you will then stew alongside Jeffrey Epstein for a while before coming to the conclusion that it is over and the only appropriate course of action would be to SELL SHORT THE SEMICONDUCTORS, or long SOXS — as all men of means are doing right now as we speak.

Alas, I have been blogging for your pleasure since 2007 and have accurately predicted every single bear market, even the ones that never materialized. I am telling you now, so hear me loudly, WE SHALL FORTHWITH BE SHATTERED INTO PIECES on par with a Blackened Swan event that will darken your souls and blacken your portfolios with losses.

It’s not as bad as it looks: promise. You might be thinking to yourselves now “oh no what will I do?” Stocks are down 3%, give or take, and the month has only just begun. At this rate, markets will drop by 25% by the New Year, truly ushering in Centaurs to the NYSE to ring in the bell with the heads of decapitated traders.

But before you get all scared like a pussy, bear in mind the 10 1000 point rallies you have been ENTREATED to this year. It is your right for magnanimous rallies. You deserve it because you’re an American and democracy is the light. Ergo, just sit there and snort some more cocaine and wait. I am almost certain Fed’s Kashkari will say something to really get people going again. Hey, how about *only* 25bps for December instead of 50 or the dastardly 75bps? I bet you’d like that — wouldn’t you?

In many ways, 2022 was a bull market for stocks. Sure, we had periods of disarray and many Reddit tier stocks dropped 90%. But on the whole, if you were nimble, you got to enjoy, and savor, multiple THOUSAND POINT RALLIES, which were all, mind you, well deserved for a man of your stature and station.

We are not trading like a healthy market ought to.

I got lucky this morning and caught a buyout with VVNT. I closed it out and will replace it after 12pm today. I also stepped in with a 31% weighting in SQQQ/TZA and closed them out, perhaps a bit too early. Nonetheless I’m up 1.5% at the open: back to annual highs or *55%.

It was suggested that I wish my haters, both imaginary and real, to die since I’m now rich again at highs and that’s the sort of thing one does when they want to make themselves feeeeeel better.

“Hey you over there, why don’t you drop dead, now seeing I am back to annual highs?”

But I’m not a monster and am without ego. So you may live and press on and continue to read my blog and get angry at my success.

I’m tempted to reapply my hedges since markets look like rotten hell. Maybe I should go for a walk as if to avoid it.

Let me elaborate on several items, so we are clear.

I never believed in any of the narratives that pointed to stocks going up. They are going down for a long long time and you’ll have to deal with that reality going forward. The idea we rally based upon the Fed sticking their knife only halfway into your heart instead of fully — IS ABSURD.

This is what is going to happen, with exact measure.

RETAIL SALES WILL MISS EXPECTATIONS.

THE CHINESE ECONOMY WILL IMPLODE, TAKING WITH IT EVERYTHING.

THE RUSSIANS WILL FIELD A MILLION MEN TO WAR WITH UKRAINE, DRAINING WESTERN RESOURCES TO THE POINT OF COLLAPSE

THE FED WILL STOP HIKING BECAUSE IT’S OVER. THE ECONOMY WILL SHRINK BY MORE THAN 3% NEXT YEAR.

Rallies are to be sold lads. If you’re dumb enough to believe in the fantasy of democratic capitalism, I have a laptop with the President’s son smoking crack with whores to show you.

I managed the session like a champ, +38bps — fully hedged via SQQQ and TZA into tomorrow’s almost assured collapse. Had I not been hedged and waited to reallocate to my weekly holds, I would have been down more than 250bps. But thanks to 4 for 4 day trades and a little luck, I escaped the market’s wrath and now stand before you, a towering and terrifying visage, which will haunt you in your nightmares as a reminder that it’s over and there is nothing you can do to stop it.

Based upon the assumption of a tight Fed, oil and has prices, alongside every single other commodity in the world, have collapsed? Is that the narrative?

BULLSHIT

The only reason for a rout like this is SLOWING GROWTH and a crushing lower of GDP and earnings.

LOOK AT THIS SHIT.

So you mean to tell me wheat is down 3.4% because the Fed is MUHHHH hawkish? INCORRECT. The only logical assumption is the following.

Russian exports are at record highs and intermediaries like India are reselling to the places that need it. There are NO SHORTAGES of basic materials. Any slowing of growth will naturally hit prices because there will be lessened demand. That’s all there is to it. There are no real sanctions on Russia. Prove me wrong.

NASDAQ is -200 and I dodged the entire meltdown because I had gone to cash, BASED UPON SCIENCE, at the open. I am now 100% long, just closed out a monster SOXS hedge — and reserve the right as a tax evading citizen to apply more hedges into ze close.