Happy Thanksgiving

You and I have something in common. We want to make money in the stock market. There are many ways to do it which is wonderful—it means you can find a method that suits your strong and weak traits. I found this site, iBankCoin, right at the beginning of 2008. It is one of the things I am most grateful for.

Everyone is here to help, even if it’s tough love. You will not find many places like this, where idea flow is constant, the environment is stimulating, and comrades all have like-minded goals and ideals. This is my ride-or-die internet familia.

I am also grateful to have an audience, even if many of you are in-fact robots, for your existence gives these words purpose.

May we continue taking this market one day at a time and banking coin along the way. Eat up, for tomorrow we return to hunting opportunity.

A slew of economic data pertaining to Durable Goods and Personal Income and Initial Jobless Claims was released at 8:30 am and the mixed data ushered a bit of selling into the globex premarket. Looking ahead we have Chicago purchasing manager at 9:45 am, U of M Confidence at 9:55am, and New/Pending Home sales at 10am. Energy traders will also be keen on the 10:30am oil and gas inventory numbers and the 12noon EIA Natural Gas storage numbers.

Nasdaq volumes are still running at a fairly normal rate, just on the low end of normal. However the range compressed overnight to only 13.50 points which is below normal as we head into the final day of trade before Thanksgiving.

Overnight markets managed to make new swing highs on verses the RTH session yesterday and overall maintained trade in the upper half of Tuesday’s range. This is holiday grind-type trading at its finest.

There are a two volume pockets that have formed while we drifted higher out of balance. They will likely come into play at some point soon. The pink one might see some action today. When they do trade they will offer a quick opportunity to earn a few points. I have noted these levels and other key levels I will be observing on the following volume profile chart:

The momentum pockets in stocks dried up a bit today after being cornucopious [I just made word up feel free to swoon your tribal women with it.] yesterday. But if you have a deadeye and a steady hand you could still pick out a few strong spots. I will let my colleagues expound on this opportunity. They are my source as well as yours.

Instead why don’t you and I talk about something else important, yes? Let’s you and I talk about the plan, execute, repeat model, fair?

You can spend 100s of your precious hours researching a way to make money. You can base your findings on statistics because they are cold and dead and logical. You can build boulders to lean on and fortify yourself to make decisions from a position of confidence.

You can practice objective judgment now at this very moment. You can cultivate this unselfish mode of action now at this very moment. You can will yourself into accepting the random nature of external events and still go into the world and execute.

You can take the wins and the losses without imposing your will on the markets, on the world.

But you choose tomorrow. You always choose tomorrow.

In closing, UGAZ, my top trade idea from last weekend’s Weekly Strategy Session is working. They won’t all work, but this one is working. You have the map, scored in detail by your faithful General, don’t miss your profit targets and don’t stretch your risk.

Also note, there is a weekly Nat Gas inventory number tomorrow. Check the calendar I provided you and have your safety off and finger on the trigger at 1200. No excuses. Plan, execute, repeat.

The Nasdaq continues to make new highs this morning as volumes begin to dry up. The overnight range is in the realm of normal but still exhibiting a slightly compressed range. GDP data came in stronger than expected at 8:30 am and the initial reaction was buying. Keep in mind we also have Consumer Confidence data set for release at 10am today.

My initial outlook on the week was that the extended Nasdaq had done a good job finding sellers on Friday with the big gap higher and subsequent selloff. However, the market is again drifting higher in search of a fair sell point. Yesterday prices managed to exceed Friday’s high and push value higher on a session that featured many pockets of momentum under the surface.

The low volume environment is showing evidence of favoring buyers and traders are likely to benefit more from targeting opportune individual charts than trading the index itself. However, I have highlighted the key context levels I will be observing today on the following volume profile chart:

The turkey gods have made their presence known, today to all of you, via indigenous thrusts at the vital organs of the short sellers. It is a most violent sight to see in real time, one piece after another being squeezed by the cold vise grab of the fowl claw.

GOOGL, BABA, LNKD, CREE, DDD, YELP, Z, FEYE …the fire stocks. The coveted cracked cocaine of the performance chasers.

Those who managed to wrap some risk onto these devious stud stocks are now in a position to rain moneys down on the retailers come Black Friday and its crooked nephew Cyber Monday. Those on the sidelines, rattled by the back-and-forth of seasonality and macro obfuscations must chase as if their animal life depended on it.

Who do you want to be, the chaser, or the The Birdman?

As the mothership is assaulted with howling 50mph winds I am reminded of just how harsh the winter conditions can become in the north. The gas trade is not for you faint of heart Alcoa types. This market is a battle ground strewn with the corpses of men who waged battle with the gods.

Their folly was resisting to the flow of nature. This flow is something I am very in tune with, something cultivated through hours of deep oneness with the earth. In short, do not bet against the man with the gilded heart, for it shines a blinding light upon the galaxy.

Weekly Strategy Session clients, you have my road map for this idea. Do not let risk get away from you if you follow. And may the whip of Boreas lash the faces of our enemies.

Nasdaq futures are higher as we enter the week on a tight Globex range grind up. Volumes are a little light but still in the realm of normal so far. German business climate numbers gave a boost to markets overnight and Asian stocks saw a strong rally as well. Just after the open today we have Markit PMI stats at 9:45am and this evening the Bank of Japan will release minutes from their October 31^st meeting, the stimulus meeting.

Before the market opens Tuesday the US Q3 GDP data will be released as we as several other key economic statistics.

Price are set to open inside of Friday’s price range, above the mid of the slow-fade session. Friday showed signs of excess after going gap up to a new highs and finding sellers. It will be interesting today if sellers can build on their reaction or instead back off. The shortened holiday week might favor the longer term uptrend, however Friday’s auction activity is worth keeping in mind as we head into the week.

The double low that had me concerned last week is out of range unless we saw an abnormal selling-type day and the overall context is balanced. My primary expectation is for sellers to push into this overnight inventory, churn about Friday’s VPOC at 4252.25 before ultimately closing the overnight gap to 4249.25 and testing the overnight low at 4248. I will be looking for signs of responsive buyers just below the overnight lows. Sellers may target the HVN at 4242.

I have highlighted these levels and observations on the following volume profile chart:

The Raul3 Santos Weekly Strategy Session has been published. Let’s have a good turkey trade week to fill our goblets.

Listen, the market is stretched and then we went gap up big into OPEX. That event was just as risky to the financial complex as a big down gap after weeks of trading one-direction lower. Literally billions of premium that was hard earned by market makers was at risk of being blown to bits.

This simply cannot happen.

The market can rally next week, when all of that option leverage is good and dead. Will it? Without looking I cannot say. Next week is short, I am long, and the turkey gods are on the horizon.

The Chinese eased their lending rate a bit this morning. The Chinese love LED lighting, love it. This was why I had to pull the trigger on CREE. I know PHG is the king of LED lighting, but the lighting industry is a funny place inhabited by even funnier people. CREE is a bigger Nasdaq 100 component then traders give it credit for, and has been dead money for nearly a year and a half—literally a year and a half without a sustained rally. It is a pure LED play while Phillips still sells a little of everything.

It only takes a little bit of leverage applied to the right spot to loosen a boulder of profits. They cannot all be SUNEs, but if you put 1-2 of those bad boys in your book while managing your risk on everything else then you’re cruising.

I intend to pour everything I have into this second Weekly Strategy Session. Let’s plan out the turkey week to put us in the favour of the turkey gods. ARISE!

Do not be the guy buying the market at all times highs. Sure, you have banked hefty sums of coin this week on the backs of central bankers and dead shorts. But is that any reason to go all in up here? Why put all your hard earned coins in risks way?

I am a slightly different animal. My earnings this week are ‘big dicked’ [No SCOK] and I have thus earned the right to allocate some risk.

This morning I sold off my TZA hedge [adieu, my comforting friend] and started positions across the marquee risk complex via DDD, YELP, and CREE.

These moves are certainly not for the faint of heart, and have been implemented at smaller-than-normal size due to the elevated nature of the tape. Nevertheless, I intend to position my book where I see opportunity. Let us hope I am not viewing matters through rose colored sunglasses.

http://youtu.be/bmXumtgwtak