Wired.com Uncovers Bitcoin Creator: Feds Raid His Home Next Day

Since bitcoin officially launched on January 9th, 2009 it has been a mystery who created the crypo-currency.  But with its rapid adoption and expanding value, the quest to uncover the creator is tantalizing.  Investigative journalists have been seething for year over the mystery, but Wired finally put all the pieces together and linked bitcoin to an Australian genius named Craig Steven Wright.  Literally the next day the man’s home was raided by the Australian Federal Police.  Cool, great job Wired.

Apparently this guy owns some of the largest super computers in the world, not something your everyday civilian keeps in their garage.  Anyhow, whether or not CSR is the Bitcoin mastermind, his home has been torn open.  No word on whether he is in custody.

This is probably why the guy has been so low-key.  Anytime you create something this disruptive and decentralized, someone is out to get you.  Good luck Satoshi Nakamoto.

I got an early start this morning and updated all my charts and levels to the March 2016 contract.  A younger Raul would stumble into roll forward after a hard night of cognac and Newcastle and be flat footed while the market ran amuck–like it tends to do during roll forward.  Not today my friend.  An older and wiser Raul is peculating.

NASDAQ futures are higher heading into Thursday after a globex session that featured normal range.  Volume metrics are n/a as the transactions are being spread between December and March.  Price traded the lower half of our Wednesday range in an overall balanced session.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims data came out worst than expected and the initial reaction is buying.

Also on the economic calendar today we have Household Change in Net Worth at 12pm and a Monthly Budget Statement and 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down.  This day-type carries the third-most amount of directional conviction and suggests an active higher time frame participation from both buyers and sellers, with sellers being more aggressive.  It looked like some year-end positioning into the FOMC rate decision.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory, take out overnight low 4612.75 and close the gap down to 4609.75.  Look for responsive buyers on a probe below yesterday’s low 4589 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers push early and take out overnight high 4640.25 setting up a short squeeze up to 4672.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 tight balanced trade.  Hold a range from 4644.25 to 4600.

Hypo 4 full on liquidation.  Take out 4589 early (yesterday low) and set up a secondary leg to 4580.  Responsive buyers here are overrun by more supply and we trade down to 4553.25 before two way trade ensues.

Here are my levels, fresh and ready for fades:

“Never let a good crisis go to waste.” – Winston Churchill

The fact is woman have been liberated from the kitchen.  Gone are the days when 2-3 meals were expected to be on the table per the chef wife–whose duties also included keeping the house tidy, cleaning the children and dog, procuring groceries, clothing, all holiday and birthday presents, and decorating the house with knickknacks.

The void has been filled with fast causal food.  Desolate men, living the American dream via 50 hours of hard cubicle time, rank file into burger, burrito, and chicken joints for sustenance.  They sit, alone or with other inmates…er coworkers, expanding their girth 1200 calories at a time.  This is not changing anytime soon.

Chipotle was a safe place for them.  It ‘looked’ clean.  The help was sometimes cute.  It was beans, rice, and guacamole so it must be healthy, right?  WRONG!  Poison bitches, poison…the terrorists aren’t the only ones winning, deadly bacteria is too.

Now what?  Where do they go?  These are real issues facing the first world.

My top pick is LOCO because it is delicious and crasy [sic].  I wonder if Wingstop paid dork Brian Sozzi to go fork and knife one of their wings today?  I digress.  I bought some LOCO today.

What is your favorite horse in this race?  This race to dethrone the big shots at Chipotle?

“People love it when you lose, they love dirty laundry.” – Don Henley

The NASDAQ just gave up 100 points in under 2 hours.  It went right down to the 4600 handle.  I was looking for this trade yesterday morning before a bull geyser erupted in my face.  These things happen all the time.  We do not fight bull geyser (extra thick Russian accent).  However when we pushed back down and through the Tuesday low bulls were not so fortunate.  Instead they faced total and complete annihilation (extra Putin vs Turkey).

The best part about market profile is that nobody a. talks about market profile b. understands the purpose of market profile and c. uses market profile.  These single print zones, or slip zones as I affectionately named them, are the air pockets that feed my coffers, regularly.  They are good to me, like baseball is good to the Dominicans.  See below:

Anyhow, we are neutral here, and as far as we have traded its likely we end up neutral extreme.  Therefore I am in no hurry to buy.  Maybe tomorrow.  In the meantime remember–if you keep poking the bear, you are destined to get the claws.

I can talk order flow all day.  I wanted to share this morning’s trade.  The market breaches its initial balance (range set during first hour of trade) 95.74% of the time (source: a recent study I conducted over 7 years of raw IQFeed data).  This is one of the stats I work to take advantage of every day.  Guessing which side breaks and getting on board is the tricky part.  That is where order flow comes in.  Today I had a few tools to work with, including a big iceberg on the exchange.

The financial times does a decent job defining an iceberg order, so I won’t do extra work:

An iceberg order is a type of order placed on a public exchange. The total amount of the order is divided into a visible portion, which is reported to other market participants, and a hidden portion, which is not. When the visible part of the order is fulfilled, a new part of the hidden portion of the same size becomes visible.

And since it’s public knowledge, I also had an Exodus hybrid oversold, which tipped Switchboard to long bias.

Anyhow, my software reveals these iceberg orders.  This one was sitting right at 4683 and was 4 price levels deep, check it out:

This order flow stuff used to be impossible to visually share because it just happened inside the DOM.  Now that I can show with you guys what I am looking at, I will from time-to-time, because I love my auction theory order flow nerds.

Despite my overarching Titanic theme today, I will not post that Celine Dion song:

NASDAQ futures are trading lower as we head into cash open this second Wednesday of December.  Today is the last day most active traders will be swinging the old NQZ5 around.  Tomorrow we switch to a March mentality via the NQH6.  The Globex session featured an elevated range on normal volume.  Around 3am, just as we approached the Tuesday high a strong sale came in and pushed price back down through the late-morning buy surge seen yesterday.

The economic calendar is quiet today, but energy traders will be keeping a close eye on the weekly Department of Energy report on oil as the commodity undergoes serious selling pressure.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  Price opened pro gap down and after some back-and-forth a strong buy thrust came through and closed the gap.  The market went two-way for a bit before an afternoon rally set up.  It was faded into the bell.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to make an early move on overnight low 4666.25.  This sets up a liquidation trade down to 4642 before I expect to see responsive buyers and two way trade ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers push into the overnight inventory and work a gap fill up to 4687.25.  Buyers stall out before 4700 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers firm up after closing the overnight gap up to 4687.25 and set their sights on overnight high 4707.50.  This sets up a leg up to 4718.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 the big liquidation.  Below 4642.25 is more single prints–all the way down to 4600.

Levels:

This morning I was working a short bias. We were down into some Market Profile single prints and often times price can zip right through these thin zones:

Just before we went range extension down bulls stepped up and blew out my position for a scratch.  But buyers did not stop there (like happens sometimes, you get stopped and then your trade plays out).  No, they regained the Monday range.  This had me flipping to a long bias.

How I got on board the long was a matter of order flow.  As price pushed up into the Monday range it blew though a huge offer.  Once that went down, I was waiting for price to come back to that blown out offer, as these spots often provide low-risk entry points.  The key contexts were the failure to range extend down, the open gap above, and the re-entry into the Monday range.  But, check out this awesome order flow setup:

You have to see this stuff a few times before execution becomes fluid, but it’s powerful stuff.  After riding most of the gap fill my trading day was over.

Ever since the session started the transportation index has been leading to the downside.  Despite the robust rally back to break even we saw this morning across the broad indices, the group still looks weak.

As we can see on the below chart of the NASDAQ Transportation Index, yesterday the market printed a strong excess high and reversed.  Today it went gap down and has been under pressure ever since.  This price zone is critical for this contextual piece.  If this zone gives way it is likely to trigger a retest of the late-August lows, see below:

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday pro gap down after an extreme range print overnight on elevated volume. Price managed to push down through the Monday low and test the conviction drive that set up last Friday morning. The most prominent feature of the globex session is a 35 point down rotation that occurred around 6am this morning.

There are no economic events to be aware of today.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down with a profile that suggests long liquidation. After going range extension down, sellers struggled to initiate further downside. Instead the profile skewed into a lowercase letter-b shape before the market had a small rally into the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to push into the overnight inventory and work the half gap fill up to 4673.75. I will look for responsive sellers here who try for overnight low 4645.50 but fail. Instead buyers push a secondary leg up through 4677.25 to target 4685.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers struggle with the half gap up to 4673.75, stalling before, and sellers go take out overnight low 4645.50. This triggers liquidation down the single prints, all the way to 4603.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 gap and go lower. No time is spent pushing into overnight inventory. We liquidate down to 4603.50 then target the 4600 century mark. Some back and forth here before w continue down to target 4587.

Hypo 4 buyers push a full gap fill up to 4701.75, negating the entire globex session before taking out overnight high 4705.25. Look for a test up through Friday high 4610 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

As much as the lunch hour felt like an ugly whipsaw, and the morning an obtuse trend day, come close the NASDAQ left a very clear footprint–the old long liquidation.

A long liquidation is just like a short squeeze only you flip it over, or “fun-gu-la” as they say in China.  We printed a lowercase letter b on the daily profile.

When you use my hand massaged profiles you see a slightly different picture–two nicely shaped humps, and we are nestled right in the middle of them.  Check it out:

If I was a degenerate man (I most certainly am not) then I would stay up tonight and trade these price levels.  GOD WILLING, they remain untouched come morning when a more dignified gentleman such as myself can lean upon them for gains.  Nevertheless, I bequeath them to you, the unwashed masses, for the betterment of the trading class.