The iPhone Is Stale and Apple’s Tax Deal with Ireland Under Attack

News out of KGI’s Kuo suggests iPhone SE sales were abysmal on opening weekend:

According to Mac Rumors, KGI Securities’ analyst Ming-Chi Kuo commented in a
research note that iPhone SE sales “has been significantly lower than that of past new models” since its launch on March 31. The analyst cited the poor sales to poor demand for smaller-size smartphones and the fact that the iPhone SE offers no significant upgrades from prior models.
“We believe this is due in part to lackluster demand for smaller-size smartphones and, more importantly, that the product itself offers no significant upgrades to form factor or hardware specs,” Kuo added.

It has been disappointing, watching Samsung innovate their hardware, while being pigeonholed into the Apple ecosystem.

Meanwhile the EU is hard at work scrutinizing the agreement Apple hashed out with the beer guzzlers in Ireland.

Reuters is reporting the EU probe into the Apple tax deal with Irish Authorities is expected to take longer than expected amid ‘Large amount of material involved’.

Ireland is making a name for itself due to the sweet tax breaks they are offering tech giants like Amazon, PayPal, Google, Facebook, etc.  When it comes to cash hoards, everyone wants to claw off a piece of it, which is exactly what the European Union, a failing institution, wants to achieve.  They want some of that sweet tech money landing on the green slopes of Ireland.

None of this bodes well for the mature tech giant.  They are losing momentum while regulators find ways to go after that cash stash.  Not good!

The warm winds of seasonality, the gentle cues of the index model, and the downside tenacity of January and February have all contributed to an uninterrupted 2-month rally.

I took a shot betting against it, which was proven wrong and a losing proposition.  Now model scores are back into grace land, readings so extremely high they usually portend sideways or slight upside action.  It looks like the market is setting up for another week of volatility compression.

Last week I slowly made my way down to the southern tip of Florida, a place inhabited by rare birds and barracuda, while rarely checking in on the stocked exchanges.  Why do you work extremely hard?  I do it for freedom from corporate oppression and to satisfy my hankering for exploration.   But soon I will be back to my turrets.  I suspect the market will be teaming with opportunity to flip NASDAQ futures when I return, and it it my intention to gather said NASDAQS into my purse.

However this week is shaping up to be relaxing, docile, dare I say benign?    Furthermore stock pickers know the rug pull is inevitable, but if they have participated thus far, this ought to be of little concern to them.  Well done, especially to the Trade Lounge crew lead by Ragin Cajun and Option Addict.

Exodus members, the Exodus Strategy Session has been published.  Be sure to check it out.

NASDAQ futures are set to come into the week gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range on abnormally low volume.  Price managed to push up above last Wednesday’s high briefly before settling back into the day’s range.

At 8:30am we have two big data points, Advance Goods Trade Balance and Personal Consumption Expenditure.

Last week price started the week flat and continued sideways until Tuesday when a gap down found strong responsive buyers.  Said buyers were overrun on Wednesday.

Thursday was the last trading day of the holiday shortened week and started gap down.  The rest of the session was spent slowly trading higher.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4397.50.  Look for responsive buyers at 4391.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers continue pushing lower, down through 4391.50 setting up a move to target 4377.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers defend ahead of the 4400 century market and begin working higher.  Price pushes up through overnight high 4425.75 and buyers target the overhead gap at 4435.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Long time reader and Exodus Strategy Session member UncleBuccs once noted that he looks for markets to change direction around holidays.  Sort of like the ‘Sell Rosh Hashanah, buy Yom Kippur’ axiom.

See Also: Buy Lent, Sell Easter

Along those lines, and given a slew of data that was parsed and analyzed for actionable bias, I am bearish heading into the upcoming week.

Exodus members and lingering free trial takers, check out the Exodus Strategy Session that was just published for more details about how to trade next week’s action.

Happy Easter lads, check out the cresting wave formation on the Dow Jones:

According to my theory [FD: it’s an odd one, based on sorcery] the lurch up-and-out of the wedge was your best short entry opportunity since the beginning of the year.

SEE ALSO: The Dow Jones Is Forming The Wedge

NASDAQ futures are set to enter Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price managed to recapture most of the FOMC buying reaction from last week on action that is seller controlled.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data looked slightly better than expectations, as did Durable Goods Orders.  Ex-transports, the 8:30am Durable Goods data looked weak.

Also on the economic docket today we have Markit Manufacturing PMI at 9:45am and the Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  Price opened gap down and sellers pressed lower off the open.  Responsive buyers stepped in ahead of Tuesday’s low but were ultimately overrun late in the day before two way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and trade up to 4381.25.  Look for sellers to defend here and work to take out overnight low 4365 setting up a move to target 4343 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers press up through 4381.25 and sustain trade above it setting up a gap fill to 4396.75.  From here overnight high is an easy take up at 4397.25.  Look for responsive sellers at 4412 then two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press off the open and trade down to 4342.75 early.  Responsive buyers defend here but are ultimately overrun.  Downside target is the measured move down to 4337.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

According to the most recent data at the CME, the probability of a rate hike at the April meeting is only 12%, see below:

Going out to June, the probability rises to 41%

Let’s see if the market continues to behave itself as the date nears.

SEE ALSO: Fed’s Bullard: Brace Yourself for An April Rate Hike

NASDAQ futures are heading into Wednesday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price briefly took out the Tuesday high before settling into balance.  At 7am MBA Mortgage Applications had no impact on the tape.

Also on the economic docket today we have New Home Sales at 10am, Crude oil inventory at 10:30am, and a 2-year floating rate note auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  Price opened gap down and a strong open drive worked price higher, closing the gap in the first 30 minutes.  From then on price went trend up, slowly.

The action was directional enough to break us away from the massive value area that began building on 3/16 after the FOMC rate decision [see market profile below].

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the tape and take out overnight low 4422 setting up a move to test 4408 before responsive buyers step in and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers push up through overnight high 4441.25 setting up a move to target 4445.  Look for a continued move up to 4447 to close the open gap then responsive selling and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers push down through 4408 and sustain trade below it setting up a move to target the massive VPOC at 4395.  Trade gets choppy here, with responsive buyers the first go around, but any subsequent retests are likely to explore down to 4386.

Hypo 4 buyers sustain trade above 4447 and test 4452.50 before selling comes in.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Twitter is down -27% year-to-date as it continues it downward spiral of mediocrity.

We’ve all come to accept that Twitter is most valuable when something horrible is happening in the world, like a GOP debate or dress color argument.  I am sitting, bagholding, wondering if the terrorist attack in Brussels will put a bid in Twitter.  Appropriate, wouldn’t it be?  Just as the rally reaches maturity, for the bird to attempt flight.

It probably won’t go well.  Look at April seasonality for this loser:

But I am hopeful because Twitter was the first place I went this morning to find out what the hell was going on in Brussels.  I wanted to hear it through the filter of my stream–some of the finest people in the world, as far as I am concerned.

SEE ALSO: TWITTER IS THE WORST STOCK ON THE PLANT

That little chart consolidation it is forming maybe, just perhaps, will break to the upside and stick and provide some tinder for a rally.  I’ll keep holding my breath.

Please keep your thoughts and prayers with the friends and families affected by the senseless terrorizing of Brussels.

See more: 28 Killed, Scores Injured in Suicide Attacks Across Brussels

NASDAQ futures are set to enter the session gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price briefly exceeded yesterday’s low before coming into balance at the apex of a multi-day value formation [see market profile image below].

On the economic calendar today we have House Price Index at 9am, Markit Manufacturing PMI at 9:45am, and a 4-week T-Bill auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  A choppy open gave way to selling, albeit briefly, which pushed the market range extension down.  Moments later bidders arrived and worked price back up through the entire daily range, eventually closing the day out near the highs.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4416.25.  This puts us in range to test above overnight high 4420.50.  Look for responsive sellers up at 4424.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers defend the 4400 handle and work price lower to take out overnight low 4383.75.  Look for responsive buyers around 4370 and two way trade to ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buying pushes up through 4424.50 and sustains trade above it, setting up a secondary leg higher to target 4445.

Hypo 4 selling liquidation takes hold.  Take out overnight low 4383.75 early then sustain trade below 4370 setting up a move to target 4345.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves: