First, last Friday we printed a normal day. Normal days are anything but ‘normal’ …they only occur 6.36% of the time, according to my last study. A normal day sets a large initial balance then never breaks it. They tend to show up at-or-near inflection points.
Next, we had an extreme spike on the NAS100 TRIN Monday morning–a spike higher than any level seen since 12/31/2015:
We also printed a neutral day yesterday. Another low probability day type, though not quite as rare–occurring 23.32% of the time according to past stats.
I am looking for slightly higher prices before I book a few longs and initiate shorts. I may be playing it too slow, but I will begin working the short side up around 4538.50 /NQ_F
Tue Jun 7, 2016 9:01am ESTComments Off on Night Session Tests Major NASDAQ Level; Finds Sellers
NASDAQ futures are set to open gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price worked higher for most of the session, finding sellers just ahead of the key MCVPOC at 4546.50. That was around 6am, and since then the futures have been pushing lower.
On the economic calendar today we have a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am, a 3-year note auction at 1pm, and Consumer Credit at 3pm.
Yesterday we printed a neutral day. After coming into the week gap up, sellers were unable to fill the gap. Instead initiative buyers came in and worked price higher during the morning, pushing the market range extension (RE) up before lunchtime and Fed Chair Yellen’s talk in Philadelphia. During her speaking the market traversed its entire range and went RE down briefly. A sharp responsive bid stepped in and we formed an excess low. The market then traversed the entire range again to make a new high on the day before ultimately settling near the daily mid.
Quite the OTF battle.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4525. Look for buyers here who test up to 4540. Sellers are here, ahead of overnight high and begin working price lower, down through overnight low 4520.50. Look for a move down to 4513.25 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 sellers close overnight gap down to 4525 then take out overnight low 4520.50. From here a move down to 4513.25. Look for responsive buyers up at 4506.25 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 buyers push up off the open, take out overnight high 4545.50 setting up a move through MCVPOC 4546.50. Look for sellers to try and defend up at 4549.75. Stretch target is 4555.25.
Mon Jun 6, 2016 9:18am ESTComments Off on Markets Saunter into Monday; Yellen Talk on Deck
NASDAQ futures are coming into the second week of June gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price managed to exceed last Friday’s high briefly before settling into two-way, balanced trade.
Today is arguably the most important day of the week for economic events. Kicking it off, we have a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction at 11:30am. Then, during NYC lunch, at 12:30pm Fed Chair Yellen is set to speak in Philadelphia.
Last week price traded sideways with a slight upward drift. The action seemed choppy at times but overall was methodical and balanced. On Friday we printed a normal day, which is anything but normal, occurring less than 20% of the time and often at-or-near inflection points.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4509.50. Look for responsive buyers ahead of overnight low 4504 then a move up to take out overnight high 4524.75. Buyers target the open gap up at 4532 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 sellers work the gap fill down to 4509.50 then take out overnight low 4504. Look for responsive buyers down at 4497.75 then two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 3 buyers gap-and-go, take out overnight high 4524.75 early on then close the open gap up at 4532. Buyers sustain price up here, outside of balance, setting up a move to target the MCVPOC up at 4546.50 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 4 strong selling down through 4497.75 sets up a test of Friday’s low 4478.75. Look for responsive buyers down at 4470.75 then two way trade to ensue.
Across the northern territories, where men pursue industry and drive U.S.A. prosperity the honest way, not drilling into our mother and sucking dry her oil, up here in the north, where we forge steel into machines, people are feeling rather jovial. The lands have bloomed, and the skies are filled with emerald green trees who compliment the resilient conifers in a wind-driven ballet of ecstatic movement. Mating season has taken hold, with plebeians flocking to town square 5-7 nights/week to have a go at courtship and good tidings.
It is all so magical, rising again from the desolate cold, so magical one may see the world through false lenses. Rose-colored lenses.
Everything looks better through rose-colored sunglasses, even the stocked market, which is saddled with maturing oil debt. Meanwhile Europe is flaring up, like it always does this time of year, yet nobody is taking it seriously…yet. Soon the imperial guard will lead the United Kingdom out of the hell hole that is Europe. German festivals will be infested with slobbering refugees, men of fighting age, who encircle and assault local Germanic women, much to the Dalai Lama’s chagrin.
The summer Olympics will begin–with the torch inviting people around the world to come and contract the deadly Zika. Perhaps this is our mother’s retribution for an unsettled population who would rather see billions spent educating and healing their youth instead of GAMES.
The land will begin to boil as the sun reaches its apex in the sky, summer solstice.
All this, and more, is on the horizon. So prepare. Clean your home like a crime scene, stock your food stores and potable water sheds. Tend to your gardens so they may bear fruit while the vine of your enemy withers. Temper your lust and gluttony, and prepare for austerity. Welcome it.
They may paint a rose picture across the stock index markets this week, but I will be at the front of the queue, selling my risk wares and stacking my nuts far away from your prying eyes.
Distinguished members of Exodus, the 81st Edition of Strategy Session has been published. Be sure to check it out.
Fri Jun 3, 2016 9:44am ESTComments Off on The Cake Has Been Baked on The NASDAQ
Pardon this morning’s delayed release, I was in an NFP trade. If you want to see what was driving my trading decisions live, check me out on Snapchat: VCali
NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an abnormally stable overnight session pre-NFP. After Non-farm payroll the session normalized, printing a range and volume within the statistical norm [67%]. Price managed to exceed swing high overnight before coming into balance within our current micro structure.
Also on the economic docket today we have ISM Manufacturing and Durable Goods at 10am, also the Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm.
Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. Sellers made a hard move lower off the open that found a strong responsive bid. The rest of the session was spent trading higher with price briefly making new swing high right at the end of the day.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the NFP sellers and close the gap up to 4532. From here we test overnight high 4538.75 then target 4546.50 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 sellers push down through overnight low triggering a move down to 4500 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 sellers take out overnight low then stall out setting up a move up to 4530 before two way trade ensues.
Change in non-farm payrolls 38k verse 160k forecast
Unemployment rate is lower but so what? Look at that change in NFP, brutal.
Traders expectations for a June rate hike have been tempered. The initial reaction is selling across U.S. index futures. They are currently pricing about a 5% chance of a June rate hike down at the CME Group:
UPDATE – Traders are pricing in only a 3.8% chance of a rate hike, post NFP:
NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price held range during Globex on balanced trade, suggesting little has changed since yesterday morning. At 8:15ma ADP Employment data came out slightly worse than expected and at 8:30am Initial/Continuing Jobless claims data was mixed.
Neither of these employments statistics managed to move the market which appears to be waiting to hear tomorrow morning’s Non-farm payroll lead before breaking the current balance.
Also on the economic docket today we have crude oil inventory at 11am.
Yesterday we printed a normal variation up. The market drove higher early on then buyers held session mid through the closing bell.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4521.50. Buyers then continue higher and take out overnight high 4526.75 setting up a move to test above the Wednesday high 4531. Look for responsive sellers at 4535.50 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 2 sellers take out overnight low 4508.25. Responsive buyers step in ahead of 4500 and two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 strong buyers close gap up to 4521.50, take out overnight high 4526.75 then sustain trade above 4535.50 setting up a move to target 4546.25 before two way trade ensues.
His holiness Elon, speaking from the pulpit of Re/code, delivered a sermon to his devoted followers. His words are being feverishly transcribed by disciples onto internet parchment–places like the iBankCoin and Wired. The disciple Mikey (no mouse) captured this sacred proverb from Elon, preserving it on the pages of Apple Insider:
“I think it’s great they’re doing this, and I hope it works out,” he said. “It’s just a missed opportunity. It’s a couple years…they’ll make a good car and be successful.”
The entire article can be found by clicking here but I will sum it up for you non-believers: Elon Musk is the living, breathing, walking son of God and he has come to deliver us from the evil that resoundingly originates from oil.
The price of oil is flat relative to yesterday but the last few sessions have been anything but calm as investors anticipate the outcome of the upcoming OPEC meeting.
Some chatter from oil nations is hitting the wires this morning.
1. Iran's Oil Minister Says Oil Production Ceiling Without Quotas is Meaningless;
Says OPEC Can Control Nothing Without Country Quotas; Says Iran's quota should be
14.5% of OPEC output.
2. Qatar's Energy Minister Says Oil Market is Positive, Heading in Right Direction
of Balance; Says Need Oil Above $50/bbl to Encourage Investment
3. Saudi Energy Minister Says Oil Market Rebalancing; Says Wants Long-Term Market
Stability; Says No One Can Determine Equilibrium Price
4. Angola Oil Minister Says $60/bbl is Good Price, $80/bbl is Better
5. Kuwait's Acting Oil Minister Says $50-$60/bbl is Appropriate Price
6. Venezuela's Oil Minister Says OPEC Agreement Could be Extended to Non-OPEC
Countries; Says hoping for $60-$70/bbl oil.
Their commentary may seem meaningless since the price of oil will ultimately be determined by U.S. open markets. But if you trade a macro product like oil you need to have this information.
Wed Jun 1, 2016 8:21am ESTComments Off on Here Is A Quick Look at Which NASDAQ Levels Are Key Today
NASDAQ futures are set to start the month of June out gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price managed to trade up above yesterday’s high before settling into balanced trade. At 7am MBA Mortgage Applications came out below expectations.
Also on the economic calendar today we have ISM Manufacturing and Construction Spending at 10am, a 4-week T-Bill auction at 11:30am, and the Fed Beige Book at 2pm.
Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up. After price briefly went range extension up late in the morning sellers stepped in and traversed the entire range. Responsive buyers defended ahead of last Friday’s low and a strong ramp took hold, higher, near the end of the day.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4525.25. From here look for buyers to continue higher to take out overnight high 4537.50. Look for responsive sellers up at 4546.50 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 2 sellers work lower early on, take out overnight low 4508.25. Look for a move down to 4497.75 before two way trade ensues.
