Volatile Globex Session; Key Events and NASDAQ Levels

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range on elevated volume.  The Globex session started with a gap down and price continued lower until just after midnight.  Price then rallied back up through overnight range but was unable to fill the gap.  Sellers then reemerged and pressed down through the entire range.  Around 8:30am share of Microsoft halted and they announced a cash deal to buy LinkedIn.  Heading into the open the market is on session low.

See Also: Microsoft to Aquire LinkedIn for $26.2 Billion, All Cash

The only events on the economic docket today are the 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week the NASDAQ worked higher than churned sideways through Wednesday, despite the other major indices working higher.  Both Thursday and Friday the market opened gap down.  Friday was balanced until the end of the session when a sharp attempt lower was rejected by responsive buyers.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a shake-out push lower off the open, down to 4421.25 followed by a strong responsive bid higher.  Buyers work up to test last Friday’s low 4438.25.  Look for sellers to reject a move back into Friday’s range and the market to continue to probe lower, down to 4411.

Hypo 2 buyers push into the overnight inventory and regain 4438.25 early on setting up a move to target overnight high 4452.  Buyers then push a full gap fill up to 4458.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers close overnight gap up to 4458.50 early on and sustain trade above 4450, setting up a move to target 4470.

Hypo 4 full-on liquidation, sellers push down through 411 and sustain trade below it setting up a move to the 4400 century mark.  If the century mark does not hold, then we could see a fast move down to 4367.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

So it appears summer did in fact set out to trick the majority of participants.  It really cajoled them into aggressive weekly upside bets only to pull the proverbial rug during Globex.  Now it looks like we are in store for something a bit more direct, a bit more draconian.

Downside without the subtly of German design.  Global citizens, predominantly domiciled in the northern hemisphere, are being worked into a frenzy.  The sun is frying their brains and they are returning to their base instincts–snarling animals emotionally defending their territory and fucking for survival of the species.  Does this really surprise anyone?

We have:

• Russian and English soccer hooligans setting each other on fire
• Gordie Howe passing away [RIP]
• Mass shootings [old hat travesty]
• BREXIT
• One of the least anticipated summer Olympics in history being held in a corrupt, disease-infested 3rd world country

I am sure the Greeks are doing something stupid, as we speak.  All of this, and MOAR, will be plastered across your teevee screens this week.  Congratulations, you’re about to embark on the next negative news cycle.

Distinguished and piker members of Exodus, I have done my best research to keep us one step ahead of these summer markets.  You have, all of you have access to the same information inside Exodus.  Not one of you is a better member.  A more experienced analyst, sure, but together we stand in solidarity as opportunists.  Let’s continue to use the tools built by the benevolent ‘Fly’ aka Plutonium Peatie [rumored to go by Le Fly in France] to keep our decisions objective and consistent.

It is my belief that anyone would make the right decision if presented with the facts–as dirty as they may be.

All of this news, analysis, signalling, and posturing can be TRUMPED by our central bank overlords this Wednesday, so stay sharp!  Keep an eye on the bond auctions.  Watch for more perverted financial deals from Asia Pacific.  And for GODS sake, keep it classy.

Members of Exodus, the latest Strategy Session is out.  Give it a read, if only the Executive Summary.

The Exodus Strategy Session has been freakishly accurate for the first two weeks of June.

Think of the Strategy Session as a weekly research report that takes into consideration all the predicitve analytics inside the software.

The report also contains my working auction theory model, which has been running live for 81 weeks straight.

Attention to detail is paramount to any model because garbage in = garbage out.  The minute factors are presented each Sunday, but they utimately help shape each week’s Thesis for The Week.  Think of it like an executive summary.  Below is last Sunday’s Executive Summary:

Raul’s bias score 3.33, Medium Bull*. Look for bulls to attempt higher prices early in the week. Janet Yellen speaks Monday and may try to talk up the likelihood of a summer interest rate hike.

Expect price to roll and head lower as early as Monday afternoon.

* Rose Colored Sunglasses Bearish Signal triggered, See Section IV

Two weeks ago the summary was still bullish, despite the market being on a pistol hot run, see below:

Raul’s bias score 3.58, Medium Bull*. Look for price to continue working higher across all major indices. Keep an eye on the lagging Dow Jones, and whether it plays catch up or attempts to lead us lower. Look for Friday morning’s Non-farm Payroll data to provide market direction into the weekend and into the month of June.

Note: U.S. markets are closed Monday in observation of Memorial Day. For a full schedule on all trading products, click here.

* Rose Colored Sunglasses triggered, but extreme reading suggests calm upward drift. See Section IV

A great deal of passion goes into this research. It is one of two things your good pal RAUL takes seriously.  The other thing is my morning trading report.

The Executive Summary is a 10 second read based on 4-5 hours of research and is one more way you can outsource your analytics to the good folks at iBankCoin Exodus.

BONUS: When I have a conviction bias, I let it be known on snapchat.  For these updates, follow me.  My user name is VCali.

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal volume on slightly elevated range.  Price was balanced until about 3am when a half-hour’s worth of selling came into the market.

On the economic calendar today we have University of Michigan’s preliminary June reading of Confidence.  At 1pm Baker Hughes will report how many rigs they’ve counted, and at 2pm they will release a Monthly Budget Statement.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  Price opened gap down, below Wednesday’s range, and worked higher off the open.  Then just before lunch sellers came in and pushed the market range extension down.  Just below 4500 a responsive bid stepped in and two way trade ensued (see hypo 2).

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to make a hard push into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4511.75.  Look for responsive sellers right around here and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers push a half gap, stalling out just below the 4500 century mark.  Sellers then work lower to take out overnight low 4476.25 and find responsive buyers around 4470.75.

Hypo 3 sellers gap-and-go down, take out 4470.75 early on then find a responsive bid around 4465 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 full-on liquidation. Hard push down off the open then sustained trade below 4465 setting up a push down to 4420.75.

NOTE: All levels quoted above and shown below on Market Profile are for the June’16 contract despite most activity rolling forward to the September contract.

Levels:

Levels (zoomed in):

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

This is the kind of militant group I can get behind.  They have likely committed unspeakable crimes against the indigenous population, but looking past such atrocities these guys have all the markings of an 80’s action film.

I envision some British bloke, hailing from Johannesburg, running this outfit.  His top two guys are defects from the SAS.  They always show up in a Range Rover after their bandits complete the job, talking on a steel-case satellite phone, telling their clients where to wire the money.

Plus fuck oil and everyone who sucks it out of the ground.

Citizens of Nigeria are cursed by their commodity.  Violence will continue.  The attack was tweeted out and later confirmed by a Nigerian Security Official.

I wonder where they get all that kickass artillery?

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price slowly worked lower overnight, pushing the market down just below the lower bounds of value.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing Jobless claims data came out better than expected.

Also on the economic docket today we have Household Change in Net Worth at 12pm and a 30-Year Bond Reopening auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal day.  A bid sell push early in the session gave us a wide initial balance that would mark the day’s range through the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a flush off the open.  Sellers are aggressive in pushing the market lower, trading down to 4470.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers push into the soft-handed overnight inventory but stall ahead of the open gap, finding sellers up at 4515.  From there the market works lower to take out overnight low 4502, finding responsive buyers just below the 4500 century mark and settling into two-way trade.

Hypo 3 buyers push a full gap fill up to 4518.75 then take out overnight high 4522.50.  Look for a move up to 4529 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Imagine you have a question.  You go to Google. Your queries turn up nothing of value.

This is not Google’s fault.  You failed to properly search.  Fine.

You go to Twitter.  Hey, this place is loaded with experts.  Surely the proper hashtag will enter one into the conversation, right?

I am a normal person.

I posed the following question to the ‘Twittersphere’:

Minutes and hours went by.  OH JOY, someone loved it, one red heart for me.  The tweet does exist.

Then it was swept away in the stream, miles beyond sight, cast into the bottomless pit of dead tweets.

Nobody pitched me on their event. No algo replied with a low-brow offer.  Noone inhabiting the #fintech hastag had one single word on any trader expo, event, award show, anything.

Sell me on your event and I will come there and perhaps even write about it.

UPDATE: Harry Sears on Facebook knows what’s up:

Things are getting interesting on the NASDAQ 100.  In the last 4 trading days we have printed 2 normal days and one neutral day. Normal days are rare. I mentioned this yesterday:

last Friday we printed a normal day.  Normal days are anything but ‘normal’ …they only occur 6.36% of the time, according to my last study.  A normal day sets a large initial balance then never breaks it.  They tend to show up at-or-near inflection points.

Today’s normal print looks like the one from Friday, featuring a strong morning sell then no follow through.

Perhaps I amuse you, wringing my hat over the building nuances on the NASDAQ.  There is way more action in stocks, mostly to the upside, I could be making money on instead of ‘being right’.

But that’s not how I roll.  Having a bias when scalping /NQ_F improves my stats.  Also, when this balance breaks (and balance ALWAYS breaks) it will set up a huge move and I will eventually be working with the winning side.  Ahead of the break my bet is that the move out of balance will be lower.

Abnormalities are what I look for when trading.  Finding high probability stats and building trades around them.  That’s objective trading 101. We built Exodus around the premise that if we get people trading objectively they will find their path to consistent profitability.  This trading ethos manifests itself in pretty much my entire body of internet work.

Back to the present.  I have a bearish bias because rules. The caveat is every other index is acting super bullish.  So the NASDAQ needs to lead the whole shit house up in flames otherwise the march higher continues.

NASDAQ futures are set to come into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked lower last night and found a firm bid on the low-end of our current value.  The market then worked back up and settled into yesterday’s midpoint.  At 7am MBA Mortgage Applications data came in stronger than expectations.

Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am and a 10-Year Note reopening auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  Bulls struggled to push range extension up after a quiet open and a hard sell rotation came in.  Through lunch the market steadily climbed higher, printing a weak high at 4532 before traversing the entire daily range again and closing near the session low.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to squeeze higher off the open.  Look for a move up to target 4531 before finding responsive sellers and settling into two way trade.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4514.75.  From here they continue lower to take out overnight low 4505.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4504 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 strong buyers push up through 4531 and test above the weak high 4532 setting up a move to target 4537.  Stretch targets are 4544, 4546.50, and 4555.25.

Hypo 4 sellers sustain trade below 4504 triggering a liquidation down to 4470.75.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

There was something perverted about the way we sold off into the bell today. It was slow, methodical, distribution.  It almost felt German.  Not too much pressure because one mustn’t startle the herd.  But someone was cashing up.

Perhaps their signals read like mine.  The Exodus Overbought reading 9 days back performed sublime, adhering to it’s historical standards.  But it’s opportunity is complete, and now a more sinister model, one forged on a pile of painful lessons, fuck ups, and enlightenment is coming alive.  Like Victor Frankenstein, I watch my monster start to twitch and quiver.

IT’S ALIVEE!

I wish my conviction was rock hard, but I have three contingencies working against me.

1. We printed a weak high today on the NASDAQ at 4532
2. Swing high happened during Globex which usually doesn’t stick
3. the tape is slow, like really freaking s l o w

We are at an inflection point in either direction.  Good money will be made over the next few days.  The key is being on the right side of the tape.  My models say down, so I must be methodical and bet the down move.

Godspeed.