Fri Jun 6, 2014 12:37pm ESTComments Off on Shuffling The Deck
Ahead of the weekend, I booked my EGLE long and will look to revisit the EGLE or anther shipper on Monday. I bought some UGAZ alongside chessNwine because I really like the picture across all timeframes when looking at UNG.
I took a scale on WDAY, but have a runner in place, should the chase race begin to take shape.
I am with the YOD trade in a very uniform matter, single file.
I still have upside levels on my radar in the Nasdaq, and the summer is heating up. I will now sit in the shade of a wise tree in the tall grass like an apex predator.
Money has been rotating into shippers. The group has seen some lovely moves, today especially. As I mentioned earlier, I am long EGLE, the most ultraviolent of the shipping stocks. However, many of the other charts piqued my interest, as did their performance inside The PPT as of late.
Sure I spend my nights pool hopping and participating in other poolside activities such as poolside conference calls, but in the mornings I forage behind buildings like a raccoon, hungry for my next can of tuna. If the crowds I run with, pinky up socialites of the highest cloth, knew how I spent my days they would certainly not invite me to their next chip-and-dip mixer.
Which is why they are homos.
Moving on, abandoning FCEL ahead of earnings yesterday afternoon afforded me the opportunity to hunt a new dumpster pick, and I went with one I have been stalking for days, patiently, like a raccoon. Unlike a raccoon my latest pick immediately took flight like it wants to naturally. Naturally, because it is ticker symbol EGLE, like eagle. I am only getting started with this one, and as we revisit the range we so falsely abandoned yesterday less than 24 hours later (pinch), my only contemplation is when to ADD MOAR.
The ever famous and intoxicatingly potent falsie fastie reversal pattern has a stench of aged gouda that cannot be mistaken for miles around, like the garbage incinerators of Hamtramck on a balmy summer night.
Now I must wash myself and comport my mind for an afternoon of potential trades. Stay hungry baby babies.
As the summer rolls in, I am focusing more on my futures trading. I went live this week and my focus during active hours has to be 100% otherwise I will miss the subtle clues of the intraday auction. Trading is going well this week, and I am managing to avoid many of the pitfalls I used to incur while attempting to “trade” while being an accountant. Now I simply trade without the, “you hurry up and buy” of returning to spreadsheet chimp work.
I made a few changes to my swing portfolio today. I stopped on in SINA before it went on an afternoon rally. I also closed out BIS, a levered biotech short ETF, when I suspected a rally may be afoot. The rally never quite materialized even after the picture set up. This is like the dog that doesn’t bark at the thief in the night. Something may be afoot, and buyers may be in a risky position. This is all speculation, of course.
I took a WDAY long. The PPT likes it, I think OA still likes it, and at times RC likes it. I can’t say I hate it, but this is a slightly unfamiliar chart picture on the daily chart so I took a small position. We shall see.
I closed out FCEL ahead of this afternoon’s earnings announcement. This is not something I feel to participate in. Instead I will find another tradable stock in the waste dump. Speaking of which, my Wm sold off a bit today, but is of the old man variety which pleases me. I will seek out more slow stocks to swing slow on while I focus my efforts on the nickel-picker-upper machine.
It is very hot outside and I must be on my way. I have many meetings this afternoon. Be well my friends.
As energetic as the bounces have been in some of the most beaten down momentum studs, you should always have one foot facing the exit and an itchy trigger finger. Case in point: the trading action in ANGI. I was able to book a small win on my options position today before it really went south. It may go higher from here, or lower, but one matter is certain, the context changed from dead cat bounce to violent horror show for both teams…and the sellers seem to have speed on their side.
You have been reminded of these contextual conditions repeatedly by the sage (no Impala) cast members of the iBankCoin hegemony. I had stops in place for SINA today as well, but it behaved well enough to earn a pass to Tuesday’s trade. My only other trade was buying BIS near the open. I am underwater slightly on the name but take solstice in having the position in these precarious times. It helps me hold onto XOM which, goodness, we nailed some kind of entry on. I am up nearly 30% on the name. Of course, I started this position half sized, uneasy with the knife catch but impressed by the story. I am waiting for a pullback of sorts, something that grinds both sides up, so I can add more size. I may not see it until much higher.
I am pressing FCEL right up into the earnings grill, which is tomorrow after market close, if POS, ehm, TOS has the information correct. Finviz also states after market close, but you never truly know with these back ally stocks.
We printed a normal profile today on the NASDAQ. The normal day is classified as having an initial balance which is so wide, so dynamic, the rest of the days’ trade is unable to breach the extremes. The name is deceiving, and I am not sure why Dalton named it as such, because the days are anything but normal. They are actually very rare and an undisrupted initial balance occurs less than 20% of the time. They typically occur when a news driven open makes such a large move we are unable to disrupt it for the remainder of the session. The volume profile is fat and has three different distributions. The actions marks indecision and will certainly give participants something to chew on this week.
We had an open-test-drive where sellers one ticked higher and immediately drove price lower. This suggested strong directional conviction by the shorts. However, we found a strong responsive buyer just below last Wednesday’s low. The two sides duked it out and it looks like the bulls used their intermediate term control to press a ever-so-slight victory on the day. See for yourself, and interpret the profile as you may, this is how we learn:
I was trading /NQ live today, and was actually making money on the long side during the drive lower. There were some healthy counter rotations going on inside the liquidation which was a slight hint we may find a strong responsive buyer. This type of trading takes 100% dedicated focus as I truly was picking up nickels in front of a steamroller. But have you ever seen those little birds who run along the shore break and snipe clams? Nature has a place for the nickel-picker-upper, so don’t hate the player babe.
Fri May 30, 2014 3:06pm ESTComments Off on You Have To Expect an Element of Uncertainty
Today has been another day of doing very little. I bought a small starter in FEYE and stopped out on some weekly FSLR calls and stopped out my WB calls. I simply did not have patience to stick with WB when it broke consolidation lower. The throwback was the real tell that the trade was mush for me.
The Nasdaq June electronic miniature futures contract hit all-time contract high today. There was a sharp selloff, but it put us into another neutral print. The trend is still favoring longs, and I will see the rest of my positions into the new month, June, the finest month of the year.
So embrace uncertainty, know you risk, and execute like you always wanted to. Now if you will excuse me, I have a poolside conference call at 3:15.
If you are trading stocks, then it is mandatory that you know how to take a swing trade because sometimes there simply is not enough volatility to merit day trading. In the low volatility environments, we also see cheap option pricing. The pricing of options is something I actually know very little about because I am most concerned with timing my swing and knowing two key price levels:
MY FIRST TARGET AND WHERE I AM WRONG (Stop loss)
My typical swing trade lasts from 2-12 days with my most recent successes being in shorter duration swings. Since my holding period is this long, I like to use a 9 period exponential moving average for reference. This tells me what the average price was over the last 9 days while skewing slightly to the most recent data. I feel like old news is exactly that, which is why the exponential moving average which weighs more recent price action (or news) heavier is more effective. I also use the 33 ema because through extensive testing on multiple timeframes and instruments it proves time and time again to be the center of the universe. This gives me an idea of the longer term swing.
Finally, I like two run two CCI channels to gauge momentum. A longer duration CCI tells me the direction of longer term momentum and the turbo CCI helps identify pullbacks. Most of the time I look to buy pullbacks in the direction of the trend, but lately I have been looking for bases in beaten up momentum plays because they offer a simple consolidation to base risk upon. Take my recent ANGI long:
Remember, these types of trades work best when the broad market is trading in your favor, especially the Nasdaq. When we had large ranges, big chop, and violent down days, swing longs were dismantled one by one. You have to know when to change gears and go back to day trading. It is much like riding a roller coaster. The slow, anxiety ridden ride up is great for swings, the fast plunge down is day trade mecca, as is harsh chop. Stay cool out there.
“Markets take the stairs up and the elevator down, babe.”
You need to know when to change gears in this market, much like hitting a lower gear for a big hill climb on a bike. If you miss your gear when the slope changes then you will be passed by several more focused cyclists. There is no opportunity to “go with” momentum in the futures this week, the Nasdaq is a choppy, two-timeframe mess with a positive skew.
Perhaps it is the warm breeze gliding across the reprieved northern bones that has everyone a bit slow moving and happy. Perhaps we are nearing enthusiasm, hell I feel enthusiastic.
Either way momentum pockets are working on the long side better than the short side. I will remember this next time we are establishing a swing low, to instead push on momentum shorts. These instruments, mere acronyms and numbers, now swing both ways.
The Nasdaq ripped higher into the bell and that has me anticipating keeping risk elements on the screen for the mornings trade. I really like EGLE here and have no position yet. What a tight daily chart after putting sellers in the pinch. It feels/looks like YELP did last week or SINA two days ago. It is a tight consolidation after a sharp move off the low.
Stocks are blowing up, and the key is not to start shooting everthing that gains a slight pulse. But have a few ideas in mind and be ready to group think as the day progresses.
Now I must get back to my aerobic exercises. They say aerobics is like taking a little bit of Adderall and Prozac. I say OK.
I have a few well positioned June calls in CREE and ANGI which I am pressing into a lazy Nasdaq tape. We found a responsive seller on the highs today, but the overlapping-to-higher value positioning suggests buyer control. The range extension higher does too. It is tough to trade a churning balance in the futures, and better to focus on tight charts in individual names.
I have not bought anything yet today. I tried to short NFLX for a moment but once buyers established a decent foothold on the day I cut my loss.
“Cut your losses quick babe.”
Slightly tighter price targets have been working well to string together some singles and as of this post my annual losses are just under 12%. We are building over here, and positioning mentally for the next big opportunity.
I am never one to complain about heat. Being a man of the north, the steamed air comes as a welcome reprieve after a hard winter. My computer on the other hand decided to “give up” and I believe it may have died, at least a little today. It may be a sign I need to turn on the air conditioning.
Before my computer combusted, I was trading NASDAQ futures and sashaying from one position to the next, ensuring I do not overstay my welcome with any of these hot potatoes.
I sold my YELP calls and SCTY shares. I bought FSLR calls, SINA shares, and more FCEL. It is with earnest intent I participate in the order flow which is drawing short sellers to question their hypothesis on FCEL as earnings creep closer, and closer, and closer. With risk elements ripping a la carte their position is a rather precarious one, if I may be so bold.
I must be brief for I am writing you, finest people of the interwebs, from an olde relic and I need to tend to my damaged mother ship.
