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Feeling Squirrely

A few of my largest positions have been sedentary throughout this quiet low volatility environment.  They did not participate in the rally and the continued to sleep today.  There is a certain element of squirrel that enters my mind when I spend 4-5 days with size in a company like Candy Crush maker King Digital Entertainment.  They make free iPad games for goodness sake.

Oracle missed earnings expectations after the market closed and the shares are getting hammered.  This should serve as a friendly reminder how pungent and nasty the price action was during earnings season a month or so back.

I managed to end the day green while giving back my quick gains in Facebook.  There are definitely winners and losers in this stock pickers market.

I bought the early selling in Amazon with options, a move which seems too soon in hindsight.  These fast moves down are not the best time to buy options.  Then again, buying yesterday afternoon would have been worse, yes?  I will see how they trade tomorrow and hopefully carry the calls through the weekend.

Tomorrow is a quad witching of option expiration and index futures expiring and the action may spike into the realm of violent.

I joined RC on the FRO late in the session, I am working the short side in NFLX whist riding a small YOLO runner into tomorrow OPEX, and I am overall feeling groovy even while I lose trust in some of my largest positions.  I have a plan here, it is working, and I will stick to it, even if I feel a bit of paranoia.

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Taking The Film Industry by Storm

I am currently short NFLX via some YOLO 445 puts (note: I took a scale already), and long Amazon calls on this sweet morning dip.

Amazon is a champion, NFLX is an old tiger.

#PairTrade

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Dropped The Hammer at Two

As the very dapper Janet Yellen discussed margin levels and dismissed the concerned questions of whether the stock market was priced too high, I was pressing piles of chips into leverage.  First Facebook, then Fords.  All the excitement about cell phones while Amazon was officially releasing their new smart phone enticed me into the ultra kool IFON.  The international splendor of the World Cup also encouraged me to join the elite men of iBankCoin in IFON.

The timing of the leverage was sublime, as it was soon followed by a wave of buy flow, swelling up beneath me and carrying me to glory.

Trading has gone exceedingly well these last 10-12 trading days, and I am down only 10% on the year.  I made more aggressive mistakes then most during the rough months of trade, and to mount this much of a comeback is rewarding, although I want MOAR.  I started feeling a touch greedy, and a bit of post traumatic stress kicked in toward the closing bell.  I remembered waking up down a quick five stacks and the aloof weeks I spent wondering how to go forward.  This memory pushed me to buy some NFLX puts.  I bought Friday’s $445 puts, for 2.13 each.  This may put a damper on any gains I stand to make on the long side tomorrow and Friday, but it gives me piece of mind.

Also, for $199 and a two year plan, YOU my friend can be the lucky owner of an Amazon Fire phone with a FREE one year Prime membership.  Once the masses come to find out Amazon Prime has more streaming content (cough, HBO) than NFLX on top of FREE two day shipping, they will be like, “maybe it is time I put NFLX out to pasture.”  At least that is my take on the news.

This Amazon phone is a killer across the board, a pure disruption of the highest tier.  It has a button you press and can then scan ANYTHING, and instead buy it on Amazon…likely for less.  Retail showrooms are the free advertising of Amazon.  This will not end well for most.

All this Amazon pumping aside, the Nasdaq trended hard for 2.5 hours this afternoon.  We are likely to see some continuation tomorrow.  But if not, I have some NFLX puts.

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Run Free

The Nasdaq index has gone into wait and see mode since dipping off the highs last week, and it appears we are taking a pause in front of the market moving FOMC tomorrow afternoon.  If this activity was taking place near swing lows, we could very likely be seeing momo stocks down 8,12,15% a day.  But, since we are trading near the highs, this quiet chop allows momo to run higher.

We are starting to see a bit of euphoric sentiment across the twitter/stocktwit streams, however, this is difficult to gauge and is subjective at best, emotional at worst and potentially distracting.

I have four full size stock positions, none of which are for the particularly faint of heart: TWTR, KING, BALT, and LO.  KING joined the ranks today after starting as a half position, and BALT went full size yesterday.  Also, if you are not already aware, I am long Twitter since $51 because TWITTER TRADERS CAN’T LOSE. I am pressing longs into the FOMC with an eyeball toward the exit in this burning hot summer heat.

My book is full of winners-JAZZ and TSLA to name drop the headline standouts.  I am up nearly 15% on TSLA, a wonderful position as Elon Musk and team hurtle red tape with elegance and panache (LINK: New York-DONE).  I sold TRIP today, booking a small win.  I expected more action from the name today, and when the consolidation became very old, I bounced because it seemed much buying power had been exhausted during the chop.

The market is in aunt Yellen’s hands, all we can do is manage risk.

Do you know where your risk is?

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BOATS and $HOS

I have liked the constructive action in shippers for a solid 6-7 trading sessions, first grabbing a win in EGLE then being persuaded by the candid Randad to consider looking elsewhere.  I did not have to look much further to find BALT, a company thoroughly researched by the blogfather himself, and a chart just as enticing as what I was seeing in EGLE.  Well, not quite, but a better financially positioned company nonetheless.

I started buying BALT last week and went full long on the name today.  The price action started working, then I added, then I came to find out there are DEALS going down in the shipping lanes as SBLK bought OceanBulk this morning (h/t PPT member @momono and 12631 member @equalizer).  As it has been described, a world of liquidity sloshing around, trying to find a home, it is a pleasure to see these loose funds finding a home in shippers.  The industry continues to be the beneficiary of rotation.

Who the hell wants to buy shippers with the Mideast going to war?

I have no idea.  I can tell you with absolute certainty one tactic that saves me tons of time and keeps me from going bananas—I stopped looking for the “why”.  It is a very human tendency to get to the bottom of everything, to find an absolute, an answer to every question, a perpetrator for every injustice, and an environmental theory to explain our climate.  If you ask me why shippers have gone up over the past 10-12 days then expect a simple answer, more buyers than sellers.  If you want me to put on a show, then I will make up a funny story to please your monkey mind.

Into the bell, BALT was my second largest position behind only my Twitter investment (RLOL).  I took short dated risk in TRIP, bought some RGSE, and closed out FEYE for a 15 bagger.

On these big waters, I like driving my small fast boat.  Stocks need to work early and often or they are gone.  I am talking to you, KING, get your act together.  Note: talking to and personifying your stock positions if very NOOB.  With my behavior in mind, watch your risk because a post with this much swagger usually portends calamity.

For now, enjoy the prosperity like it is 1986:

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ELONMANIA

elon-musk_meme

With the Mideast heating up again, energy prices BOOM! take the tip top of everyone’s agenda.  Funny how fast we can forget $5 gas and convince ourselves into the BIG HORN 6 liter engines.  Surprising to no one, we are again faced with energy tension and rising prices.

And we all want to make some money off of such conditions, right?

Solars

Oil Services and Components

The Raw Commodities

and TSLA

Sometimes you have to accept that the world is filled with all sorts of people who couldn’t care less about your needs or beliefs.  We all want new technology, but the salty old villians with their secret societies keep us hooked on oil.  Keep in mind, the combustion engine is one of the most efficient pieces of technology on the planet for creating energy.

However, we have an established wildcard.  He flies cargo to space, he builds electric cars that race, and he calls fuel cells bullshit.  The bold leadership of Elon Musk cannot be discounted.  It IS a reason to own shares of TSLA, as is their steady success.  Good businesses don’t just make one good decision or have one solid product.  They pile solid decisions one atop another.  It does not take a genius to make the right decisions.  Anyone can choose the right and wrong when presented with the right information.  So the discovery process must be logical, data driven, and then we make decisions and carry on.

The Tesla vehicles produce volumes of objective data, the Tesla brand is in high demand among the new elites, and the Tesla brand gives big ups to the man himself, darling Nicola.

My play on Iraqi conflict is long TSLA to $1000.

(Full disclosure: I am long since last week)

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Hanging Tough

Late in the session, the market was hit with a nice fake news piece that the Iraqi Prime Minister was blasted out of the sky as he flew around in his chopper.  The news sullied a YOLO I was fleecing but otherwise did little to disrupt the status of my day, which ended up being a 2 bagger.

Whether someone just used their “get out of shorts free” card or not is something we can brood over in my tinfoil lined laboratory, or we can simply focus on continuing to take high quality trade setups.

I made a few adjustments to my book, nothing major.  Waste Management (ticker: WM) was acting pathetic and weak into the bell, so I scratched my position.  I am not trying to get in bed with the garbage man.  I took two new longs in its place:

BALT and KING

I am mainly attracted to the shippers due to the collective showing of their charts, so you must bear with me if the fundamentals are putrid.  I am looking for intermediate term order flow, not fundamental change of any kind.

KING has this lovely base below which formed over the month of May.  The stock never went on a run, instead it IPOed and was tossed in the toilet.

Although part of me wants to shift all my focus to trading the futures, I know the possibilities of these low float stocks during a dead market.  The market is churning its way up the roller coaster hill.  You can carefully play very precise futures positions with tons of leverage, which I am, but you can also toss a few hand grenades carelessly at crap like KING.  Both are coin making endeavors.

So while the world becomes increasingly bearish during the 24 hours of negative news (we are in a negative news cycle) , I will simply howl at the moon and toss idle funds into 2-12 day swing longs.

http://youtu.be/PDYhNn8D_bI

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Slow Rider

With the Nasdaq switching pace to fast, I want stocks that are slow. It is summertime, after all, and where there is smoke we are much more likely to see fire and a bear wearing a silly hat.  Said bear becomes seriously perturbed if you trash a campsite with beer bottles and carelessly leave your fires unattended.  Said bear finds you, and beats you with a shovel.

Those were my very logical, well thought out—thoughts today.  In their wake lies one change to my portfolio—I scratched EGLE and started a position in COST.

Costco is the bane of my retail existence.  Somehow, I cannot escape their efficiently lit warehouse aisles without dropping half a stack on groceries, home items, and clothes.  Given the overall tart sentiment for retail, and the slow nature by which Costco shares trade, historically, I started buying into a company I have long supported.

However, I feel my foray into the shippers is still green both in money and age.  I will continue stalking the space, and more than likely re-enter.

The move I have been waiting for in the NASDAQ futures for several days happened, and I was not prepared to capture it.  I made too many errors early in the day, was too far inside my head, and as a result the move I theorized played out with me on the sidelines.  The contract is bidding up after hours, ahead of The Fed releasing their balance sheet.  We are over 20 points off the lows.  What does it all mean?  I am not sure, but my book of stocks was green as spring all day, despite the weak NASDAQ.  Someone is not being truthful in this market of stocks.

If we return to the intermediate term balance we broke lower from, in short order, you best believe we rip clean through the other side of it.  Then we will see the ramifications of the Full Moon Friday the 13th visited upon the cerebral lobes of bears on a global scale.  Be careful out there.

Here is my current book, one that is down for the year and olde in stature:

By size, of course, largest-to-smallest:

TWTR (so committed), LO, MNGA, COST, TSLA, WM, UGAZ, HOS (I’ve got), XON, JAZZ, FEYE, and CREE June 47.50 calls.

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Pulling Out The Stops

This week has been pure churn inside the Nasdaq futures, ahead of what may be a very interesting closing trade to the week.  We printed a second neutral day for the week (Monday being the first) after making a new contract high.  The move from the high was fast and if you were still in an AM long, it took you out of that long.

They key was not being overly shaken by the move, recognizing the neutral print, and preparing yourself for a return to the mean.  Neutral context is very tricky, but vital to understand as many are often perplexed by the “rigged” market when they flip bias from long-to-short, then see their shorts torn clean from their derriere by a high pressure water geyser (buy flow).

This grind house is taking place ahead of tomorrow, which is the Thursday before OPEX.  Remember, how we imprinted this ultraviolent day on our brain computers?  Expect the unexpected and sheer unorthodox, especially ahead of FRIDAY THE THIRTEENTH, which is also a full moon.  This calendar/lunar spectacle will not occur again for 40-some years.  You may want to hide your wife, hide your kids, and curl in the corner of your office with a shot gun pointed at any entry points.  Or, you may want to channel your inner wolf, and find yourself a feast.  Be aware, that wolves much bigger than you are always a possibility, and if you see one then it’s fight, flight, or freeze.  Those are your primal choices.

I closed out my WDAY call runner.  It never materialized as I expected, and it may over the next 7 trading days, but I wanted to keep my focus elsewhere.  EGLE is fluttering its wings, whetting its beak with river juice, and considering a carnivorous bear dinner.

I also initiated a mangina long, MNGA.  I know the good stuff is what is moving, but then I also know I have shares in TSLA which wound up like a fresh baseball, just waiting for some juiced up freak to whack it out of the park—either way.

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Eagle Mode

We can learn much from observing the apex predators of the world.  Harnessing the information you obtain from studying their behavior is a matter of becoming mindful and searching yourself for the animal within.  I trade stocks best when I hunt like a bird of prey, the hawk, the pelican, the eagle.

The eagle utilizes its incredible vision and finesse during the afternoon when the sun is high an enhances his view.  The rest of the time he rests, nurtures his family, and does other patriotic activities like watching CSPAN.

Thus it is with great pleasure that I spotted EGLE from my sky view this afternoon.  I am back in Eagle Bulk Shipping as it, and other shipping stocks, take shape into the hot summer months.

I bought stock in Tesla too because Elon will eventually provide the masses with electric space vehicles and then be like, “now what?”  No excuses, this is a slow swing in a company I want long term positioning with.

I covered my Netflix short too.  They caught an upgrade today, and it is not my place to overstay my welcome sitting upon boiling geysers.

My only other thought on this lazy Tuesday afternoon is whether I should add to the very well-behaved JAZZ Pharm.  I may because robots are suggesting it might be a decent idea.

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