Stay Sharp as The Tape Slows

Opening trade featured aggressive sellers followed by a real slow grind down.  This action seems constructive, albeit only somewhat, after the spine twisting volatility seen over the last two weeks.  Still, ATRs are blown out across the board and will continue to be until an extended period of compressed volatility.  Said compression may already be underway.  Or we will continue thrashing about wide swaths of price range.  Either way, now is not the time to be aggressive with your bias.

I am watching Facebook.  This stock is consolidating nicely today.  The company is Best in Breed social media, and one of the few unbroken momentum charts out there.  What I am looking for is a nice rally this afternoon from the intra-day compression.  If said rally is sold into [“Rick Rolled” as the kids say] sort of like Netflix last Thursday, then I know we are still deep in the muck and subject to fake moves.

If Facebook breaks down from consolidation, sucks in the short sellers, then squeezes higher, I will still consider us deep in the woods–only Facebook will maintain its AKC Best in Show certification.

Third scenario, one for the dreamers, that would give me some confidence in the bull case, is seeing Facebook break this stupid intraday wedge to the upside then sustain higher prices.  This would be an old school breakout WITH continuation, something practically extinct in modern momentum trading.  A unicorn for the technical analysts.

Scenario 4 breakdown that sticks.  50 basis point rate hike imminent.  Hide your wife, hide your SHAK shares.