NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price took out the Thursday low briefly before recovering and settling into two-way trade.

The economic calendar is light as we wrap up the week.  At 10am Leading Indicators data is out, and at 1pm the Baker Hughes rig count.  There are no other economic events.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  After an early spike took prices to new highs, sellers made two hard rotations lower before we marked time for the rest of the session.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5301.  From here we take out overnight high 5303.25.  Look for sellers up at 5308.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 5286.75 and continue lower, down to 5278.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong sellers press down to 5270 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

*REVISION: This post originally stated that the Snapchat IPO was today, February 17th.  It has since been updated.

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price made new all-time highs before settling into two-way trade along the unchanged line.  At 8:30am Housing Starts data were below expectations, Building Permits above expectations, Initial/Continuing jobless claims data worse than expected, and Philadelphia Fed data was much better than expected.

The only other economic event on the docket today is a 30-year TIPS auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a trend up.  Steady buying all day from open-to-close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to take out overnight high 5313.50 and continue exploring higher prices—open air.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 5304.50.  Look for buyers down at 5295.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers press a move down to 5279 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked to new all-time highs overnight before retracing much of the gains.  Then a second wave of selling came into the market just after 8am.  At 8:30am Consumer Price Index data came out in-line with expectations and Advance Retail Sales data was better than expected.

Beware Janet Yellen’s Semi-annual Testimony to the House of Representatives, which begins at 10am.  We also have crude oil inventories at 10:30am and Long-term TIC flows at 4pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  After opening gap down sellers made a move to take out the Monday low but stalled out.  Then, as Yellen was taking questions from the Senate Banking Committee, prices began to rise, pressing up through the entire daily range.  The rally accelerated into the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to push into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5276.  Look for sellers up at 5278.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 strong buyers close overnight gap 5276 then sustain trade above 5279 setting up a move through overnight high 5285.  Continue exploring open air above.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 5265.25 and find buyers just below at 5264 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 selling liquidation triggered by sustaining trade below 5263.25, sending price down to close the gap at 5227.  Stretch target is 5251.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held above the Monday midpoint and inside Monday’s range overnight on balanced trade.

On the economic calendar, beware Janet Yellen speaking to the Senate Banking Committee at 10am.  We also have a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  The week began with a gap up and buyers were eager to drive price higher off of it.  Price worked higher, up through open air, tagging the Exodus Strategy Session measured move target before finding some responsive selling and settling into two-way trade.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 5261 and continue to probe higher, up through Monday high 5261.50.  No upside targets exist.

Hypo 2 sellers push down through overnight low 5252.25 and work lower to 5234.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers close the weekly gap down to 5227 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into the week gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, mostly after 6:30am.  Before then it was balanced.

The economic calendar is light to start the week–only a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction on the docket, both at 11:30am.

US markets worked higher last week, across the board.  Here is the performance of each major index last week:

Last Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up.  Price opened gap up, just above the Thursday high.  Sellers worked down into the the gap, closed it, revealed buyers and we spent the rest of the day auctioning higher.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to probe higher into open air.  Look for sellers up at 5261.50 if we tag it.

Hypo 2 sellers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5227.  This sets up a move to take out overnight low 5226.75.  Look for buyers just below at 5224.75.

Hypo 3 strong selling moves in, sustains trade below 5223.25 setting up a move to target 5210.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, achieving new highs before settling into two-way trade.

The economic calendar is light as we wrap up the week.  At 10am we have U of Michigan Confidence, at 1pm the Baker Hughes rig count, and at 2pm a Monthly Budget Statement.

Yesterday we printed another double distribution trend up.  After opening flat a strong buyer drove the market higher in the morning and buyers continued bidding the market, turning initiative in the afternoon and pressing value higher before two way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5212.  From here we take out overnight low 5209.25.  Look for buyers down at 5194 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers press up through overnight high 5227.25 and continue exploring higher prices.

Hypo 3 strong sellers press down through 5194 and sustain trade below it setting up a move to target the open gap at 5191.25 then 5189.25.  Stretch target is 5175.75.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked to new highs briefly, around 6am, before flattening back out.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data came out mixed.

Also on the economic docket today we have Wholesale Inventories at 10am and a 30-year bond auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  A gap down was sold early on but quickly formed an excess low suggesting the presence of strong responsive buying.  We then rallied up through the Tuesday high and sustained above it.  A late-day ramp higher was faded.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press into the overnight inventory and close the small gap down to 5191.25 then continue lower through overnight low 5186.25.  Look for buyers down around 5175 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers continue exploring higher prices, take out overnight high 5201.75 and probe higher.  Open air.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trigger a liquidation down to 5157.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held high balance overnight in slow, two-way trade.  At 7am MBA mortgage applications data came out better than last week.

Also on the economic docket today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am and the US Treasury is auctioning off $24 billion worth of 10-year Notes.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  After starting the day gap up to new all-time highs, price drove higher until nearly lunchtime.  Then, we formed excess high right around where one would expect to see algorithims hunting stop orders.  Sellers pressured the tape for the rest of the afternoon but gained little traction.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press down through overnight low 5171.25 and work a gap fill down to 5158.  Buyers show up here and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 take out overnight high 5187.75 and continue working new highs.  Take out Tuesday high 5192 and tag the 5200 century mark before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong sellers press down to 5138.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures set to gap higher into Tuesday after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, trading up to and sustaining new highs as we approach cash open.  At 8:30am Trade Balance data was slightly worse than expected.

Also on the economic docket today we have JOLTS Job Openings at 10am, a 4-week and 34-day T-bill auction at 11:30am, $24 billions dollar’s worth of 3-year Notes being auctioned at 1pm, and Consumer Credit at 3pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  After starting the week gap down, buyers quickly showed up and bid the market higher.  They continued their campaign late in the afternoon to close near session high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a squeeze higher early on, up to 5182.  Look for sellers up here and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger squeeze up to 5191.25, then seller show up and begin reversing the move.

Hypo 3 strong buyers sustain trade above 5191.25 setting the stage for a real rally.

Hypo 4 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5158 then set their sights on overnight low 5154.25.  Look for buyers down at 5150.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into the first Monday of February gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price chopped around inside last Friday’s range in balanced trade, however as we approach cash open there is some selling pressure hitting the tape.

The economic docket is light all week, and today we only have two T-bill auctions to monitor, both at 11:30 am, the 3- and 6-month duration, $34B and $28B respectively.

Last week began with a hard sell that was bought.  Then a gap down Tuesday that traded the same way, lower in the morning than higher in the afternoon.  Wednesday was gap up and range bound, and the rest of the week marked time.  The performance of each major US index can be seen below:

On Friday we printed a normal variation down on the NASDAQ.  After opening gap up closing the gap left behind when we came into last week, price stalled, and excess high formed and we poked below initial balance low for a second.  Then we slowly traded higher through the rest of the session.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push off the open and trade down to the open gap down at 5130.75.  Sellers continue lower, closing the gap down at 5119.25 as well.  Look for responsive buyers down at 5118.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5154.75.  Buyers continue higher, up through overnight high 5160 and test above all time high.  Look for sellers up at 5182 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 range trade, from 5156.50 to 5123.50.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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