NASDAQ futures are heading into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher during the entire session, pressing up into the hard selling from last Tuesday and nearly erasing the losses.  At 7am MBA Mortgage applications data came out worse than last week.

Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am and the Fed’s Beige Book at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The gap down was quickly bought up and buyers continued pushing higher, to a new weekly high before sellers came in and reversed the entire move, briefly pushing the market range extension down before two-way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, working up to the naked VPOC at 5432.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 seller work into the overnight inventory and attempt to regain the Tuesday range at 5405.25 but fail, ultimately leading to a move up to 5432.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work a full gap fill down to 5389.50 then take out overnight low 5388.  Look for sellers down at 5383.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price took out the Monday high, briefly, during extended trading hours before a significant rotation lower pushed through.  The down move stalled around the Monday RTH midpoint. At 8:30am Housing Starts came in below expectation and Building Permits above expectations.

Also on the economic docket today we have Industrial/Manufacturing production at 9:15am, and a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  Price opened the week gap up and buyers bought into it before we spent much of the day churning sideways.  Then, the afternoon featured a ramp higher.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5394.50.  From here sellers step in and work lower, down through overnight low 5375.50.  Look for buyers down at 5374 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers work a gap and go lower, down through overnight low 5375.50 and continue lower, targeting the weekly gap down at 5358.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers work a gap fill up to 5394.50 the continue higher, up through overnight high 5403.75 triggering a rally up to 5430 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are heading into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked lower, down to a new low of week before stabilizing into two-way trade.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data came out mixed.

Also on the economic docket today we have the preliminary April read of Confidence from the U. of Michigan at 10am, then the Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we formed a normal variation down.  Price opened gap down and buyers could not fill the overnight gap.  Instead we worked lower, slowly, eventually closing on the low-of-the-day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5372.50.  From here buyers continue higher, up through 5382 before stalling around 5395.75 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers work up to close the gap at 5402.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 5355.75 and push down to 5348 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held the Tuesday range on balanced trade.  At 7am MBA Mortgage applications were better than last week.

Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am, a 30-year bond auction at 1pm, and a Monthly Budget Statement at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began gap down, a brief move higher closed the gap before sellers stepped in and drove the market lower, testing down into 3/27 prices, making a new low for April before recovering much of the move throughout the rest of the day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5402.75.  From here the continue higher, up through overnight high 5412.75.  Look for sellers just above at 5415.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 5386.25.  Look for buyers down at 5374.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers press up to 5430.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held the Monday range overnight on balanced trade.

The economic calendar is extremely light today.  we have a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am and a 10-year Note auction at 1pm.  Fed’s ‘crazy-eyes’ Kashkari is doing a Q&A in the afternoon but investors aren’t likely to pay attention.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day.  Price opened with a slight gap up, proved into the conviction selling after last Wednesday’s Fed minutes, found sellers, reversed down through the entire range, going neutral.  Then it held last Friday’s low before stabilizing into two-way trade.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push down through overnight low 5411.25 setting up a move to tag the 5400 century mark before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers work down to 5347 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers work up through overnight high 5429.25 and tag the Monday VPOC at 5432.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 stronger buyers press up to 5461.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into the new week flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held the Friday range overnight on balanced trade.

The economic calendar is light this week.  For today, we have Labor Markets Conditions change at 10am, 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am, a 3-year Note auction at 1pm, and a 4pm Fed Chair Yellen is speaking in Ann Arbor, MI.

Last week we marked time, essentially, before rallying into the Wednesday FOMC minutes.  We then reversed, hard and lower after the minutes.  Then, despite a strong initial risk-off move following news of Tomahawk missiles being launched at Syria, we stabilized ahead of the Friday opening bell and continued marking time into the weekend.  Here is the last week performance of each major index:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up.  Sellers pushed early on, just below the Thursday low before discovering a responsive bid.  We then spent the rest of the day working higher, going range extension up before settling into two-way trade.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a push up through overnight high 5433.75, which continues higher to 5461 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 5415.75 and tag the 5400 century mark before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down to 5374.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  Price made a sharp move lower around 9:13pm after the U.S. military launched nearly 60 Tomahawk missiles against a Syrian air base.  The reaction pushed down to prices not seen since Tuesday of last week before establishing a bid and worked higher, reversing the entire reaction.  At 8:30am Non-farm payroll data was mixed.  The initial reaction is a slight move lower.

Also on the economic docket today we have Wholesale Inventories at 10am, the Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm, and Consumer Credit at 3pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day.  A gap up Thursday morning was quickly sold into but sellers failed to take out the Wednesday low, initially.  Instead price worked range extension (RE) up before reversing the entire daily range and going RE down, briefly trading below the Wednesday low before two-way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work back toward overnight low 5382.75, trading down to 5374.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5422.50.  From here they continue higher, up through overnight high 5429.75, trading up to 5431 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers push down to 5348.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked just above the Tuesday high overnight before settling into balanced trade along the Tuesday high.  At 7am MBA Mortgage applications came in below last week.  At 8:15am the ADP Employment change was much better than expected.

STRONG ADP. 263,000 jobs created in March vs. expectations of 185,000. (Though weirdly a significant downward revision to last month)

— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) April 5, 2017

Also on the economic docket today we have Service/Non-manufacturing Composite at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am, and most importantly the FOMC minutes at 2pm.

Yesterday we formed a normal variation up.  Price opened gap down, but inside the Monday range.  Buyers made an early gap fill and found sellers right along the UNCH line.  Said sellers reversed the morning move but we unable to push range extension down.  Instead we spent the rest of the day working higher, but ultimate inside the Monday range.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to push higher, up through overnight high 5448 and to new highs, tagging the measured move level at 5462.50 before two way trade ensues ahead of the FOMC minutes.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 5435.5 and tag 5434.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers ahead of FOMC push up to 5481.75 before we await the Fed.

Hypo 4 stronger sellers press down to 5418.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight with sellers working down into the 40 point intra-day recovery seen Monday.  As we approach the open, however, the Monday low is holding.  At 8:30am Trade Balance data came out better than expected.

Right on the open, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will be talking in Frankfurt.  Also on the economic calendar today we have Factory/Durable Goods Orders at 10am, and a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  Price opened gap up and ran higher, briefly making new all-time highs before reversing and working lower.  We closed the open gap left behind on 3/28 before discovering buyers and spending the rest of the day working back to unchanged.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to make a quick move lower, down through overnight low 5406.75, setting up a move to 5383.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 strong selling, liquidation speed, takes us down to 5369.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap up at 5434.  From here they take out overnight high 5436.75 and continue higher to 5441.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are heading into the first day of the second quarter with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held inside the range of last Friday overnight in a balanced session.

The economic calendar starts out slow this week, picking up steam as the week matures.  For Monday, we have ISM Manufacturing data at 10am, then at 11:30am the US Treasury is auctioning off 3- and 6-month T-bills, $39b and $33billion respectively.

Last week the major indices worked higher.  But first the week began with a major gap down.  On the open last Monday, the Dow was down nearly -200.  However, after two trend day ups, the stock markets spent the rest of the week drifting, with a slight upward bias.  Here are the performances of each major index last week:

Last Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up.  Price opened gap down but still inside the Thursday range.  Sellers made an attempt down through Thursday’s low but stalled ahead of it before buyers came in and worked the market to a new high on the week.  The new high was quickly met with selling, twice, ultimately settling price out just below the Friday midpoint.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5438.75.  From here they continue lower, down through overnight low 5432.75.  Look for a move down to Wednesday’ naked VPOC at 5421.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers work down to 5406.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers press up through overnight high 5450.75 setting up a run at new highs.  Look for sellers up at the Fibonacci zone starting at 5462.50.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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