NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price worked lower overnight with sellers working down into the 40 point intra-day recovery seen Monday. As we approach the open, however, the Monday low is holding. At 8:30am Trade Balance data came out better than expected.
Right on the open, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will be talking in Frankfurt. Also on the economic calendar today we have Factory/Durable Goods Orders at 10am, and a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.
Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. Price opened gap up and ran higher, briefly making new all-time highs before reversing and working lower. We closed the open gap left behind on 3/28 before discovering buyers and spending the rest of the day working back to unchanged.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to make a quick move lower, down through overnight low 5406.75, setting up a move to 5383.50 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 strong selling, liquidation speed, takes us down to 5369.75 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 buyers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap up at 5434. From here they take out overnight high 5436.75 and continue higher to 5441.50 before two way trade ensues.
Levels:
Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:
