Here is a few facts for you on this wonderful Sunday evening, in regards to the war in the Ukraine.
Typical casualty ratios in any war is usually 1:1.4, whereby the defender is offered an advantage due to fixed defensive lines and to overcome this the attacker must come with superior forces since both sides are going to suffer similar casualties with the advantage lying with the defenders. According to some reports I have been reading, Russia afflicting casualties on the UKR army at a 10 to 30:1 ratio — meaning for every thousand Russian death/injuries — Ukraine is being annihilated with 10-30,000.
The Russian method is slow and methodical and front line Ukrainian soldiers are saying they never even get to see Russian soldiers in the field, up until the point the area is mopped up. How is Russia doing this?
Unprecedented amounts of artillery attacks.
They are expending 60-90,000 artillery shells per day. To put that into perspective, during the entire Gulf War the United States expended 65,000 shells. Russia is doing that in a single day, in what seems to be an endless barrage of attacks supported by first class logistics and an industrial complex.
Since Russia switched tactics, from rapid big arrow attacks to the slow and methodical approach we see now — they have yet to lose a single battle — no matter how many wonder weapons NATO sends the Ukrainian army.
Over the weekend the daughter of an influential Russian philosopher, Alexander Dugin, was murdered in a car bomb in Moscow, in what appears to be an attempt on Dugin — since he’s close to Putin. These sort of provacations are desperate attempts to get the Russians off their methodical strategy — to perhaps respond emotionally and fall into a trap. I seriously doubt anything will change on the ground, other than more of the same.
Back west we are mostly bored of the news and have traded the markets as if this potential powder keg didn’t exist. Biden is financing the entire Ukrainian government and military, to the tune of $1-2 billion per week. It’s clear to anyone watching the actions of the west — they do not want peace with Russia and Russia doesn’t want peace with them.
Back on the issue of when will it matter.
It will begin to matter again when the weather turns and European industry is faced with the task of gathering enough supplies to make it through the winter. After that, the west will need to figure out what will a post UKR-RUS war look like for them — and how to maintain their grip on the resource rich Ukraine without getting into a shooting war with Russia.
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