Here is a few facts for you on this wonderful Sunday evening, in regards to the war in the Ukraine.
Typical casualty ratios in any war is usually 1:1.4, whereby the defender is offered an advantage due to fixed defensive lines and to overcome this the attacker must come with superior forces since both sides are going to suffer similar casualties with the advantage lying with the defenders. According to some reports I have been reading, Russia afflicting casualties on the UKR army at a 10 to 30:1 ratio — meaning for every thousand Russian death/injuries — Ukraine is being annihilated with 10-30,000.
The Russian method is slow and methodical and front line Ukrainian soldiers are saying they never even get to see Russian soldiers in the field, up until the point the area is mopped up. How is Russia doing this?
Unprecedented amounts of artillery attacks.
They are expending 60-90,000 artillery shells per day. To put that into perspective, during the entire Gulf War the United States expended 65,000 shells. Russia is doing that in a single day, in what seems to be an endless barrage of attacks supported by first class logistics and an industrial complex.
Since Russia switched tactics, from rapid big arrow attacks to the slow and methodical approach we see now — they have yet to lose a single battle — no matter how many wonder weapons NATO sends the Ukrainian army.
Over the weekend the daughter of an influential Russian philosopher, Alexander Dugin, was murdered in a car bomb in Moscow, in what appears to be an attempt on Dugin — since he’s close to Putin. These sort of provacations are desperate attempts to get the Russians off their methodical strategy — to perhaps respond emotionally and fall into a trap. I seriously doubt anything will change on the ground, other than more of the same.
Back west we are mostly bored of the news and have traded the markets as if this potential powder keg didn’t exist. Biden is financing the entire Ukrainian government and military, to the tune of $1-2 billion per week. It’s clear to anyone watching the actions of the west — they do not want peace with Russia and Russia doesn’t want peace with them.
Back on the issue of when will it matter.
It will begin to matter again when the weather turns and European industry is faced with the task of gathering enough supplies to make it through the winter. After that, the west will need to figure out what will a post UKR-RUS war look like for them — and how to maintain their grip on the resource rich Ukraine without getting into a shooting war with Russia.
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Those death toll numbers are completely unbelievable and the Russians have failed to win numerous battles. I guess what’s a loss?
But yeah I cannot see Ukraine winning. And check out that German PPI up 5% in a single month. That’s the biggest blow Putin struck; Europe got taken out without even entering the war. It’s over.
You believe all the Russian propaganda? Seriously? It’s easy to post large opponent casualties when you target schools, hospitals and nursing homes with missiles you doofus. Shooting fish in a barrel is not fishing.
Russian military losses are unbelievable and make visibly evident that their purported “first class logistics and an industrial complex” are really only WW1 relics. Half of their rocket/missiles don’t even detonate. No wonder the Ukrainians are inflicting heavy casualties on the Russians with Molotov cocktails, rocks and slingshots.
Russia’s worst nightmare is that Europe gets involved with real, modern weaponry. I don’t think that will happen before some Russian with half a brain takes Putin out. He knows that and that’s why he spends his days and nights hiding in a broom closet.
Hey Bob. I first want to say that it’s great to see you. Been a long time. Just over here wondering where you get YOUR news from. Just trying to get a balanced view and I am open to the possibility that the mainstream media and western governments are being truthful. Thanks!
No this is also unbelievable. Not only is Russia’s military up to the task but at this point they may be the only European power even capable of a world war level mobilization. Smart weapons aren’t supposed to be for major conflicts between nations; Bookings Institute morons ruled those out as even being possible in the “modern” era. Our extremely expensive and irreplaceable arsenal is for killing goat herders not fighting total war.
The 21st century arrives and we are witnessing trench warfare tactics. Reportedly when the Russians pass through a war zone, everything is booby-trapped with tiny but lethal munitions. An old boot on the ground? A bit of gear left behind? Don’t pick it up. Russian mines have been miniaturized, almost undetectable. Russian artillery barrages, the 60,000 or more shells per day, are designed to explode a few feet above the ground – there is no place to hide. Some of the Ukraine front-line forces are thankful for heavy rains and soft grounds – it helps to mitigate the artillery damage.
Front lines over 1000 km, with a force of 1 million active Russians, at any time about 150,000 at the front, being rotated in and out about every 6 to 9 weeks. The Russians will have 1 million+ trench/urban/forest/mountain all-terrain warfare-experienced troops. And this is just Ukraine; Russia has troops and ongoing activities in Syria and Georgia.
I believe that Putin has been slow walking the Ukrainian front in the distant hope that, by slowing grinding the Ukrainian military into dust, eventually the Ukrainians will come to the table. They won’t. Zelensky might want to but there are extreme factions in his own country that would lynch him and his family if he tried. He’s trapped within an impossible situation.
There is a real danger that it will go nuclear if the bombardment of 3XChernobyl scale plants continues. Will it escalate? I can’t see any other path; wars almost always escalate. Tit-for-tat contract hits and guerrilla warfare tactics will expand in both countries; and maybe elsewhere. For western countries, Ukraine is just as dangerous as Russia in this respect. As Ukraine degrades, she will see no allies anymore and will have nothing to lose.
Are the reported casualty rates realistic? From what I’ve seen and read I think they are; perhaps even underestimated.
On the other side of the globe, we have the idiocy related to Taiwan/China. Decoupling from and antagonizing China is a huge mistake. It’s going to lead not just to higher prices, or shortages, but longer-term a huge decline in innovation and technological advancement globally. For 40 years, innovators in western countries have used China to offset manufacturing risks for their new products. This is now gone and it will greatly slow time to market in western economies.
Reminds me of the lead up to WW1, the British were at their zenith of power. Reading about Whitehall at the time, no one, especially the thousands of Whitehall bureaucrats managing an empire upon which the sun never set, could imagine the conflagration that would break out in just a few months. In their eyes, the British Empire and the British Pound would never be eclipsed.
In the midst of all this are financial sanctions? Seriously, what is NATO thinking, what is the USA thinking? Have they all gone mad?
“Zelensky might want to”
NFW, quite the opposite. He’s worth $100 million.
Zelensky is an employee, not a decider.