CLASSIC BULLISH CHICANERY INTO THE BELL

Just when it looked like we broke down, BAM! you get one fuck you candle in your face after the next after the next. Who was there to stop this farce? Certainly not me. I’ve been trapped in a room for 7 days and I’m about to lose my fucking mind. I will bust loose after this blog.

My quant gained +177bps and is barely down for the week. My trading has been shit and all over the place, off by 67bps. Each breakdown was met with a candle to the face. Each candle was met with a fucking meltdown that gave me PTSD. Sometimes a trader just needs to stop trading.

The market feels unresolved, as if another shoe is ready to drop. On the bright side, it’s up. The downside, banks and important materials and consumer oriented names are lower.

One might forgo the annoying process of critical thinking at this stage and simply go long. The idea is, Biden is in full control, Putin is on the run, and the Fed will do whatever it takes to stop inflation. Under such an umbrella, I cannot see what could go wrong. Imagine the freedom of spirit to just think that way and be happy. We’ll probably be up 300 NASDAQS tomorrow and those exact people will be here to “told you so.”

We as traders often over complicate things, make situations a lot more obtuse than needed. The drama we lack in real life is transposed into this one and in this one, unlike in real life, we are comic book heroes. Our thoughts and actions are deliberate because we see past the time and space veil and to be special means to be loved. It’s all psychodrama bullshit to be honest.

STOCKS GENERALLY TRADE UP. When they trade down we worry and blow it out of proportion and declare things like “it’s over.” Well, I’ve been at this since the mid 90s at least and it’s never finished. We just keep going.

Eventually if you own good stocks, even META, you’ll make your money back and more. If you’re Dollar cost averaging into a portfolio, ignore the daily fluctuations of stocks and keep focused on legacy. For all others, day traders and swing traders alike, just know the market is doomed…until it isn’t and then the market is good.

Energy stocks are exploding to the upside. I got my face ripped off in a cute little DRIP position this morning because I was a hedgooor. Now I have just two stocks left: BTU, NET. One could argue “scared money makes no money” and I’d have no argument against it. However, I’d also like to point out brave men most often find their heads detached from their bodies in their pursuit of glory.

I’m still recovering from COVID. Give me a break here.

BIG DICKED move in natty today. I can just feel the winter breeze already. Getting chilly Europe.

Will we bounce today?

WE SHOULD, at least a little.

Should we continue down the sewer again without a fight, that would simply be depressing. This market is filled with tricks. I’m sure you retarded bulls have some sort of fight left in you, no? Let’s give it one more shot, no?

Good evening lads.

Now that you’ve had time to think about your sins, I hope you have come to accept the fact that there isn’t a plan, no one is coming to save you, and stocks are going back to and much deeper than the annual lows.

2022 will preside over the markets on par with 2008, twin towers of loss looming ominously above all other years.

We are in September after all and it’s hunting season and the prey is you.

I do these blogs as a warning, a charity, to keep my conscience clean. I owe you at least that, being such loyal and devoted readers after all of these years.

We will get a break in the selling, which will be intercepted by the mean reversion algorithms of Stocklabs. Other than that, expect liquidation of increasing ferocity into the winter, into the dark cold.

The Dow lost 1,276 and the NASDAQ nearly 700 and yet the bools have still not learned their lessons. This wasn’t a profitable session for me with wallet, but with spirit. I quite enjoyed seeing row upon row upon row of bulls being mowed down, trampled over into the dirt from whence they came.

There was something that threw me off, however — bonds rose. It would seem implausible to me that markets could’ve already priced in all the Fed hikes. Not a chance.

Larry Summer just got finished tweeting he’d go 100bps hike on the next meeting. I think it’s fair to say 8% CPI is the new 2%. Ergo, rates are going, eventually, to 8%.

I traded down 98bps for the session, mostly cash now with some small bets both long and short. Although I had hoped for a session like this and I most certainly also warned you we could get one, I did not take a very bearish position because it was on par with gambling. “The Fly” doesn’t gamble.

We should expect further downside tomorrow, which might lead to a Stocklabs oversold signal soon.

Just yesterday the fanciful bulls told you we were in a new bull market. Putin was on the run and Zelensky had bountiful levels of cocaine to see him through the entire war.

Today those same people are cocaineless shells of who they once were. The NASDAQ is plunging lower with speed, off by 400, the Dow down by 860.

Now you must be thinking “Gee fly how did you manage to do it Fly? Tell us your secrets?”

I’m actually DOWN 1% today and in an full cash position. I was positioned wrongly into these numbers. I blame COVID. I had too many high risk longs and my shorts weren’t big enough. After I sold my longs I was down 75bps. I closed out my shorts because -75bps was enough for me and didn’t want to press shorts into an opening plunge. I then took two positions on the long side, both failed. And here I am now.

I’m not in a rush to gamble in this market again and can easily accept -1% on an otherwise apocalyptic day. As a younger trader, I’d probably would’ve traded 100 times today in an attempt to “get back to even”, but it’s only my money and I simply don’t give a fuck.

Into the late afternoon, I’ll likely position light in both longs and shorts.

In short, SHMITA LOOMS.

I did attempt to warn you.

Headline at 8.3% v/s 8.1% expected, 8.5% prior
Core at 6.3% v/s 6.1% expected, 5.9% prior

Now it’s too late and the NASDAQ is down 300. The euro and yen are straight in the shitter, yields are soaring, and equities are cascading without brakes.

We had been priced for perfection. Now we are pricing for sustained inflation over 8%. The notion of stopping rate hikes at 4% is absurd. We’re really gonna have to go all the way.

Of course they will you dumb son of a bitch.

Raw commodities, 1 mo returns

That’s a mean of 3.55% over 1 month. Meanwhile you cunts thought inflation was abating and yet here we are FUCKED in cotton, corn, uranium, coffee, nickel, soy boyyyyyy.

Numbers come in hot, yields take off and your dicks get guillotined right the fuck off. If by chance numbers are light, they’re rigged. If in line, fade any bump. Basically hope for rigged and then deal with inflation in real life whilst the govt tells you that shit doesn’t exist.

You dumb cunts.

Let me just say, the new House of Dragons appears to be complete shit. I tried to give it a chance, but 4 eps deep it continues to malign the best character (psycho brother) whilst at the same time attempting to make us give a fuck about the little girl who would be queen. Complete rubbish.

I hedged the close, +77bps for the day, trading with COVID and all. I’d say I’m feeeeeeeling 80% better, but still harangued by a feeling of sloth and intermittent fevers.

Tomorrow is the CPI print and it’s gonna come in HOT AS FUCK. Do not be surprised to see the NASDAQ down 500 on a fucked number.

I’ve been told “you’re very particular about what you like, from my prisoner guard outside the door inside of my house — in reply to what I like to eat and drink now that I don’t have a sense of smell nor taste.

I have recently awoken from my loooooong slumber, because I prefer to sleep with COVID rather than not. I missed a scary drop; but now we’re back.

Breadth is very strong amidst the mega and tera cap stocks, but appreciably weaker amidst smaller. Nevertheless I’m not stupid and cannot be fooled. I shall not bet against the all mighty stocks so early in the Ukrainian victory. There is much yet to be enjoyed and celebrated, as Pax American is extended for another 100 yrs or so.

Biotech appears strong and Apple, Amzn and the usuals. Energy is weak, but not as weak as I thought. AG stocks are getting their faces ripped off as if all of Ukraine has been freed and Ukraine was about to take Russian grain fields.