THIS IS NOT ZE BOTTOM

Happy SHMITA day.

Last night the British pound got annihilated, down as much as 5% to 1971 lows. The FX markets were absolutely lit and the only thing gaining v the dollar was King Ruble, which is up 22% against the dollar YTD and +34% against the Euro.

The sanctions have been an absolute disaster.

We are rallying now and it must feeeeeeeel good to those of you on edge and on the hook. I’m here to tell you, however, this is most likely NOT the bottom. It’s too clean and easy. Typically we get a false move up, collapse again, and then bottom.

But maybe this is it. Maybe the worst is behind us and it’s purple unicorns and gay giraffes from here.

I’m long with ample cash, no hedges, but skeptical.

The autocratic scum of the west are seething over the Meloni triumph in Italy, which means she is likely a normal person with normal ideas.

Color me skeptical. The last time “Hitler” was elected was Boris Johnson and he ended up being nothing less than a big business, globalization, NATO muppet with Biden’s hand up his ass. On the surface, Meloni seems credible and the Italians are not the faggots out of Brussels. Nevertheless, the status quo always seems to find a way to remain constant.

I’m a firm believer in change via violence and the election process, as far as I can tell, is completely rigged.

NASDAQ futs are little changed, commodities bid higher.

First of all let me just say — Stocklabs is now flagging oversold for the overall markets. Although the recent data isn’t all that encouraging, I’d be remiss after using these OS signals, quite successfully might I add, if I did not use them and position for a bounce. Some will argue “this time is different” but I rarely find that to ever be true or a valid argument to deviate from a planned path. Whilst there have been missed oversold signals in the past, usually at a time when things break in the world or the market, again, I’d be doing myself a disservice if I did not at least try the long side at this juncture.

Also, and this is purely anecdotal, the website traffic on Friday was +245% over last year, +96% for the week. I typically only see traffic spikes like this during periods of duress and it almost always leads to a bottoming process in markets.

That being said, I was doing some research and wanted to share some beaten down ideas.

Hardest Hit Industries, 1Mo

The next bit of data are hardest hit stocks the past month with a minimum dividend yield of 2.5%

Next are hardest hit stocks, min cap of $5b, no divvy filter.

I find little reason to play individual stocks now, unless of course the aim is to hedge in some way or attempt to play some sector that might greatly outperform, such as oil and gas. In my experience, the first move is usually a false one, so expect the initial rally to fade and then disappoint — which will lead to a true bottom where larger returns might be enjoyed.

Although stocks have sharply decreased in value the past month, fear has largely been absent due to the spoiled rotten nature of participants, who have been programmed to believe the Fed will save them. This time around, no one is coming to save you and the only way out is through the fires.

Once we get through this oversold condition and markets bounce, I will once again take on a bearish disposition — which will hopefully coincide with the complete destruction of western finance as we know it.

Early this morning rumors of President Xi being placed under house arrest made the tin foilers on Twitter go fucking nuts. Then we had rumors of war and Blinken meddling in Iranian affairs — providing “INTERNET ACCESS” for those who wish to overthrow the Iranian govt. It’s an endless stream of fuckery and on par with crisis.

At the core of this current squall is DEMAND FOR DOLLARS, best seen in FX market crosses in Europe. The dollar is at 37 year highs against the pound and drilling the Euro on a daily basis. We also saw USD/CNY cross at 2015 crisis lows.

Let’s not forget SHMITA.

I had 65% cash into this absolute carnage and had been adding to just 3 stocks: TNA, BTU, DK. I got drilled to the tune of 2.8% today and I took a 10% UVIX position at the close, in order to prevent a truly horrible Monday crash opening. If God is great, American stocks will crater on Monday to the tune of 25%. Under the present conditions, the VIX will skyrocket and my losses will be manageable. I am most keenly interested in buying and drinking the blood of those letting out. At my core, I am a Vampire and hail from Transylvania when markets careen lower. It’s important to never panic and always keep composure. But most importantly, it’s imperative to NOT be fooled and go all in for some final battle as if this were a fucking movie.

LISTEN TO ME: PAX AMERICAN IS OVER. You will have plenty of time to SHORT THIS SHIT DOWN TO THE 2009 lows, 82% down from here. But before that happens, we’ll have a symphony of true believers, late empire shills, running out into the hills to pick strawberries for their villagers. On their way back with baskets of fruit and cream, their arms will be cut off.

The hills will bleed.

HAGW!

YOU WERE WARNED.

You chose not to listen. It’s all your fault.

Remember when oil was negative $37 per barrel? The price action isn’t as bad — but algorithmically today’s pin action is on par.

I do not ascribe to the fact that “this time is different.” I am hammered for -2.8% with 63% cash. My stratagem is of the Martingale Varietal. I shall endeavor to AVERAGE DOWN into the maelstrom and continue to buy as we circle lower into the sewers. I understand and acknowledge that President Biden is the biggest piece of shit to have ever been born — but mean reversion and markets sing to a different tune and right now PANIC is setting in and plebs are RUNNING for cover.

My best guess is for a CRASHING OF THE CLOSE, followed by a CRASHING OF THE MARKET ON MONDAY, at which point I would have likely tossed in another 15% of my assets into the fires.

I always marvel at the grande stupidity of numerology fags, placing credence into numbers like 33 or heaven’s forbid 66. The year of 2022 happens to be a very important year for these psychos and it’s part of the SHMITA cycle.

All that aside, we inside Stocklabs were given ADVANCED KNOWLEDGE of today’s crash a month ago. The end of the crash will culminate on Monday, at which point your portfolios will be entirely dead.

Fun facts in regards to the Stocklabs mean reversion algos.

We are most oversold since 2008-2009. The percent of large cap stocks bullish reading is the second lowest on record.

The Chinese Yuan is down 0.85% v the dollar, the lowest since 2015. We have a true and palpable crisis underway. The US 1yr is now yielding 4.10%.

It says “it’s over” is a gross understatement. I’m only buying here because we are in panic mode. But after this panic subsides and we have the economy to observe, it’s gonna get a lot worse before it gets better.

Inside the Pelican Room we were given advanced knowledge of the specific day markets would crash: 9/23-9/26 — all to do with SHMITA. On this news we are buying the blood and attempting to extricate a win from this, on the long side — which is retarded.

I added to my TNA holdings this morning at the open and now bore witness to a horrible blood letting in both markets and specifically energy. We have a full fledged rout underway in oil (-5%) and the euro is down another 0.7% vs the dollar.

We are pricing in something awful and the June lows loom.

I netted out +18bps today because I am a professional. See pal, that’s who I am and you’re a piece of shit.

On the matter of stocks, we have respites found in risk averse names like CL, CPB, SJM and TR. We have quality monies barreling into BIG COAL: BTU. We have a widening spread in Brent-WTI helping refiners mint money. I am long DK.

There are a billion reasons to panic, only one reason to buy: greed. There is no fundamental reason to own stocks now and I expect this sentiment to crest tomorrow, possibly Monday. Today’s dabble into fear is only the beginning. BRACE YOURSELVES for a deleterious heart stopping decline into what will be described as an 8 year market cycle calamity.

SHMITS is here lads. It’s almost over.

COLLAPSED CLOSE

This is precisely the type of tape I want to buy into. When traders who were formally permanently bullish give up hope and acquiesce to market forces, I buy their blood and drink it up. We have FX dislocations, market pricing shenanigans and most importantly the treasury market is in flux, with bonds PLUNGING in price. This will have a deleterious effect on our under-funded pensions, such as the States of NJ and CA.

But that’s for a later discussion.

When we are talking the end of Pax Americana, our timeframe is a decade — but it’s happening now and has been happening for over a decade. Our influence is waning and China is ascendent. But nothing goes up or down in a straight line and we are approaching levels of apathy that make for an appealing buy the dip moment.

I usually buy at 5% increments, but will now reduce that to 2.5% in order to achieve flexibility.