2019 is More like 2011 Than 2008

We all want to relive the dastardly days of doom, mostly due to unhappiness, but partly for a desire to buy really cheap stocks. Too bad life doesn’t work out that way, fucked face. Only with the benefit of hindsight do we learn of great bargains and opportunities.

Is there a credit crisis brewing like in 2007-2008?

Definitively, no.

I haven’t seen any notable banks going bust, or industries, aside from retail, in utter disrepair.

Have we imposed some wounds upon ourselves, similar to 2011 when Germany refused to bail out Greece?

Yes!

With Trump’s trade wars, government shut down, and lack of coherent policy to stimulate the economy for 2019, it appears this is the real reason for lower stocks. I can prove it if you want me to. Trump escalated the trade war in September of 2018, and the market topped out on October 1st, 2018.

If we are traveling along the 2011 timeline, what should be expect next?

Well, for one, the 2011 narrative led to stocks dropping by 17% from May, 2011 to September, 2011. I recall being in Turks and Caicos getting my brains blown out, having to quickly move to cash and buy puts on the market, which saved me. We rallied sharply in October by 11%, similar to how we’re moving now, and then consolidated for the next two months before blasting off for good. More to that point, after the 11% melt-up, we dropped by 3% in the next subsequent months. It was apathetic and demoralizing.

Here’s the chop-boxes of 2011.

It’s not likely that we V-shape up from here and recapture record highs. As a matter of fact, in all of the bear markets dating back to WWII, the average time to recovery is 39 months.

If forced to guess a likely narrative, I’d say up another 2-3% from here, running into a wall of sellers — then consolidate for the next 3 months in a frustrating and dizzying whir of fuckery — coming to resolution by Q2 amidst earnings announcements. I think it’s fair to say we don’t know what the extent of the weakness is now, especially with AAPL. If AAPL pre-announces in March, markets are going to steam lower and not come up for air until summer.

You come here to laugh, but now I’m going to make you cry.

Look at this chart, fucked face.

See all of those ‘downs’? That’s when I was bearish. By the third “up” I switched to bullish, because only morons look at something dead to rights and deny its existence.

Will markets top out and barrel lower again? How the fuck am I to know, without the benefit of a time machine? Your job, as a trader, is to follow trends, not to counter them. Your job is to make money, not to fight metaphysical forces and pine for political change. It’s all well and good to crave for an equal playing field and to eat the rich — but consider the last time it happened, French Revolution 19th century, it led to Napoleon seizing power and barreling thru Europe like a rabid storm of aids, killing all the way to Moscow.

I sold out of my entire TLT position — 20% weighting. With some of the proceeds, I stepped in hard and bought SOXL. It might seem to you, the untrained DNA junkyard, like a dastardly move — with the broader indices pressing +350 for the session, following a fantastic move higher for the month.

Listen to me now: markets will be higher by 10%+ for January. Meaning: we have MOAR to go before we’re done giving it to the bears. You’ve got to admit, very few people saw this coming and now that it’s here, very few people accept the reality.

This is not December, fucked face. Follow those god damned long white candles to Elysium.

As for Le Fly, perhaps a foray into the mountains for some skiing this weekend. Perhaps not, being that I spied someone casing out my house this morning. One thing is for sure, winship reverberates around House Fly, the infectious feeling of dominion over wide swaths of morons shall, forever, be the legacy of Le Fly.

Why are you not accepting of this rally? Why do you care if stocks trade up or down?

Be the sailboat and accept the winds into your sails; sit back, relax, and let it take you to wherever it needs to go.

Long until wrong.

Get used to the new normal. We used to never bottom on Fridays. More recently, we never trade down.

I sold BZUN for a quick 7% win, bought some MDB and more SMAR.

Seriously, I cannot be stopped. All of your efforts have failed. I made coin on the downside and now on the upside, incredulously. It would please you to see me fail, but I only disappoint you with my unbridled success. I am, quite seriously and severely, the best god damned stock market trade of the past 250 years.

It’s tempting to sell everything and become a hermit isn’t it? But before you do that, consider the following.

You’re an idiot.

Here is your workflow.

Is oil up?
Is HYG up?
How is SRLN doing?
How about oil stocks? Are debt/eq levels improving?

If you answered yes to all 4 questions, you must remain long, until wrong. You’ll know when to get out after seeing one of those dastardly black candles. Sure, you’ll give back some gains and likely be mad for not selling the top — but only retards sell tops. Real men enjoy the fat middle.

What stocks to buy?

That’s simple — whatever works.

Let me walk you through my work flow using Exodus.

I like tech, so I look at what areas in tech look good, based upon returns.

Then I sort by our proprietary tech algorithm and also view Sharpes to gather a firm view of the best stocks in space.

After that I view what stocks are within 1% of intra-day high. We have a screen for that too, and then revenue growth. I don’t want to be caught dead with stocks not growing at least 20% per quarter.

See how easy?

Even a god damned idiot can do it.

I did warn you about the buying and your inability to stop it.

Futures are +150.
WTI higher.
High yield higher.
Trump did shady stuff with Cohen.
TSLA is laying off 7% of workforce.
TEAM is hitting all time highs in pre-market following results.
SAAS stocks should catch fire today.

Now get to work.

Stocks were bad in December, but it isn’t December any more — now is it?

Now you might be over there eating marmalade all day, sipping from your faggotry bags of tea — eagerly and viciously awaiting stocks to reverse lower. You keep refreshing Zerohedge to read some negative news about pending upheaval, in order to placate yourselves whilst devouring pistachio muffins and rubbery panned cakes.

But I have news for you now and severely.

It doesn’t matter what you think. Your opinions are meaningless refuse, a trash heap set upon piles of rancid shit.

For the session, I bargained my way into ATTU, CLF, and BZUN. Your hatred for progress is duly noted. But just know, Le Fly is a captain of industry, a man moulded from sturdier stuff, strong, and powerful, able to shatter your jaw bones with one sweeping blow. I am both invincible and incredulous, swiftly and vaingloriously moving thru these markets with alacrity and precision. You cannot stop me; but I hope that you will try.

It seems the news about Trump and China might’ve been fake and the people who issued that leak evil; but it doesn’t change the fact that the snowball of greed is rolling very fast downhill and nothing can stop it now — not even fake news or bad news.

For the moment, prices are strongly biased to the upside.

Magic bullet fired.

*DJ U.S. WEIGHS LIFTING CHINA TRADE TARIFFS–SOURCES

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaOne) January 17, 2019

I bought some CLF and BZUN. If this news is true, we might very well rally another 10% from here.

POTENTIAL FAKE NEWS ALERT:

JUST IN: Treasury spokesperson tells CNBC: "Neither Secretary Mnuchin nor Ambassador Lighthizer have made any recommendations to anyone with respect to tariffs or other parts of the negotiation…" https://t.co/Av6jyw2WOk pic.twitter.com/ACOZdA38m1

— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) January 17, 2019

Positive breadth is once again milquetoast, lending to an air of annoyance that often frustrates me into pieces, until I writhe and toil until my bets become so gigantic that I scare myself back into cash. Now I don’t think the market is in any danger, nor do I have any issues with being aggressive with just 25% of my overall account. But what I do take issue with and fear is the complacency that seems to have taken foot again, the same snobbish demeanor that presented itself to markets in late 2007 — just before the absolute collapse.

On the other hand, there is a wide swath of you vermin on Twitter and other social media outlets prognosticating the fall of western finance, based off forlorn assumptions that was debated a century again. America is okay, in spite of its indecorous ineptitudes. Would you prefer to live elsewhere and why?

Markets were supposed to trade lower and now they’re higher. This is exactly what one likes to see if one is bullish.

I added a little something to my trading portfolio — a high conviction trade, one that cannot be stopped, no matter how many sell orders you place in front of it. It will burst thru your pitiful blockades and shit on your heads. It will, why, it will blackened your faces with the smoke from its exhaust.

Big miss at MS should not concern you. More or less, the banks are an irrelevant heap of shit. Instead, look towards the oil markets, for they are filled with all sorts of dangerous stories that can make or break this market. Consider the following, we’ve extended ourselves quite a bit the past 2 weeks.

The Nasdaq is up 8.5% since then and just about everyone forget about the pangs, and the bangs, now pretending the bear market never happened. All things considered, this could very well be just a respite, a one month sojourn down memory lane, just prior to markets resuming its down-channel. Consider it.

Early going, WTI is lower by nearly 2% and bond yields are slightly lower. Definitely look at IWM as the major tell for risk assets, but study WTI and bond markets, especially high yield markets, represented by HYG.