Exodus Quant +2.6% for March — +17% YTD

Not that big of a deal — to be honest. My Bubble Basket is +30% for the year. The impressive part of the Quant strategy is the mechanized approach to it all, coupled with the creativeness to find a system that can beat the SPY — and it’s working. Thus far, my gains in this account for 2019 is +17%.

Trading accounts are likely to have higher returns — but that’s highly subjective trading and not exactly repeatable. You get the flu, or a stomach virus — next thing you know — you’re long LYFT and end up getting blow out this morning for a -17% drubbing.

I digress.

I sold LYFT this morning for -17% loss.

For the month of April — the Quant is positioned more conservatively, sourced 50% from a value pool, and long TLT and some utilities.

Markets are +200 — but it feels a lot weaker. I haven’t had a chance to scour the market yet — as I’ve been busy with my longer term stuff this morning, as well as dealing with dog and her vet.

Sty tuned for my intra-day take soon.

Welcome to Q2, fuckers.

News out of China, robust — in spite of tariffs.

Shares in China jumped in early trade, with the rest of Asia following suit.

Factory activity in China jumped unexpectedly in March — rising for the first time in four months — according to an official survey released Sunday. The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index released on Monday also surprised on the upside.

On the U.S.-China trade front, high-level trade negotiations between the two economic powerhouses are set to resume in Washington this week following last week’s talks in Beijing.

How do ya like that? That’s what happens when you have dat exuberance.

Dow futures are +155, oil is up, yields are running higher. “The Fly” wins again.

Nite.

It’s the year 2019 and you have all sort of technology at your fingertips. You have wizards online, such as Le Fly, offering high powered algorithms and strategies for a song — and there you are — like a moron — paying an investment advisor 50-100bps per annum for useless advice.

Ninety nine percent of my IAR readers will agree quietly, but never acquiesce the sordid belief that somewhere, deep down into the recesses of their souls — they have a viable opinion on the matter.

The Nasdaq is within 5% of record highs. The gambler version of increasing your account size the coming month would be to go small cap, in the hopes that the degeneracy sloppily spills over into bad stocks. This, of course, could happen — but it’s a low probability bet — and not suitable for people who lack time or patience to trade in the cesspools of Wall.

But here’s a screen, courtesy of Exodus, that can very easily provide you with returns — as we stretch out towards the stars and high new, bright, clean, record, fucking, highs.

The screen is simple enough — but you can’t get it anywhere else but here. Tech stocks with market caps over $5b, Sharpe ratios over 1, proprietary technical rank above 2, average volume above 500k — within 10% of their 52 week highs.

If this doesn’t happen, I’ll literally kill myself.

Rates going down means nothing at all — total garbage and obfuscation. A sinking rate environment, not coupled with sinking stocks, isn’t a reliable indicator. As a matter of fact, I believe it to be a glitch.

What’s important to remember are the key drivers to stocks.

Oil — bullish
Junk bonds — bullish
Leverage Loans — okay, not great, but still semi-bullish
Technicals of stocks — great

Remember to ensure participation by tethering (extra Bogged) your portfolio to the market. This means you should not own bullshit micro-caps or any stocks with negative correlations to the market. Go with the sheep; they know where the tall grass is hidden — quite delicious and nutritious.

Heading into next week, the only thing that can change my mind is an Apple warning. This is earnings warning season, so be on guard for that. I’ll be closing out my Quant portfolio for March, a supreme winner. Final stats will be posted on Monday. For the month of April, I will be allocating half into value stocks, and also TLT. I am doing this against my better judgement. This is what the strategy says I should do — so I won’t fight it.

I want to see if oil can accelerate into the $60’s, and if gold will continue to break lower. I am heavily long NUGT, and several frackers in my trading account and like both — but will quickly sell them if the trends flag. These are not tightly correlated to the overall market. The Nasdaq can run 5% next week and I can lose money in frackers and gold. This is what I’m saying about owning stocks tightly correlated to the market.

Own larger cap stocks, preferably in tech or healthcare, for optimal performance.

Time to go clean to the olde garage.

Ciao.

Okay, I’ve had enough and cannot take anymore.

The market is within an earshot of record highs, and the Trump administration is calling on the Fed to ‘immediately’ slash interest rates by 50bps? What in the fuck?

No, you do not slash rates when times are good, when everyone is fat — living high off the hog — faces filled with puffed pastries and sordid cheeseburgers that fetch $50 a pop. Unemployment is sub 4% and wage growth is burning hot at 3.4%. The idea that we need an emergency rate cut is laughable. But, lo and behold, Fed Funds futures are now indicating a 62% chance of a cut in December and a 72% chance of one in January 2020.

We’re living in fucked times — when down is up and vice versa. Rates will, mind you, fall victim to ravenous market forces and bolt higher soon. You’d be wise to sell bonds short here — get long some banks — blow out of those high dividend payers that recently enjoyed respite. The REITs and the Utes will soon come under selling pressure, because no one gives a shit what Larry Kudlow has to say about rates. If the market is near new highs and the economy humming along — interest rates will be forced higher.

On this present path, higher oil, lower rates, the pipelines look like an idea that could stick.

Aside from that, I had a fine day — with gains in TIGR, GNFT and HCLP. I really like frackers here. Losses are accentuated by my emotionally driven purchase of LYFT. Quant was up and will be closed out on Monday for a new portfolio.

God speed and have a great weekend.

I’m down a quick 5 on LYFT — like a sharp punch to the jaw with some mustard on it. It stings — but I respect the specter of it all. The grande theatre of fuckery — the great Unicorn ipo that everyone hates and wants to sell short. I endeavor to fuck those people — good and plenty. I want those people to be dead — buried in me yard with all of the other enemies that I’ve since sheaved.

You might believe the market will fade today — but you’d be wrong. We’ve got the Exodus oversold signal working, the motherfucking golden cross, and all sorts of other shit — such as higher oil prices — seasonality — Trumpism, Mueller is dead…

The point here is PREPARE FOR A GRANDE FINALE — the final month of hedonism before your local hedge fund managers fucks off for the summer — amidst a whirring haze of cocaine clouds and dumpsters filled with whores.

If you faggots sell anything short, I will go to your place of business and break your noses off your wretched faces.

I bought some at $86. Stock is CHEAP AF.

I sold TLT for a 1.5% gain, TMF for a wash and rolled into JPM — initial purchase at 5% of holdings. I could’ve bought an ETF, or a regional — but why fuck around when JPM is clearly the dominant bank in the country?

We are enjoying yet another Friday melt up. Market breadth is at 74% and my Quant is higher by 0.5%. This is the last day of the March Quant portfolio, so stay tuned for April’s — to be announced inside Exodus on Monday. Take a free trial if you’re interested, or how about join for the month you fucking misers?

Don’t expect a fade today. As rates melt up, so will the banks. The combination of strong banks and tech is almost indefensible for bears. Expect a rout.

The LYFT ipo is going to be ultra-violent. At $72, the market cap will be around $25 billion. Estimated revenues for 2019 is $2.5b, placing their price to sales ratio at an astounding 10x revenues. If the company is growing 100% per annum, this is not a crazy valuation — all things considered. They are losing $1b per annum.

The problem here is the fucking IPO process. There isn’t a fat chance the stock will open up at $72. My guess, the stock will soar to $125 — which would boost the valuation to $42 billion or a price to sales ratio of `17x — making the shares almost uninvestable.

Here is an early Lyft investor, CEO of Oceanic Partners, shilling for this investment.

The yield curve is fucked up now, with the 1yr treasury yielding more than the 10yr. Banks borrow short, lend long — so this is a deleterious environment for them. Judging by their 5% pullback over the past two weeks, investors fret the future.

But will it last? What is the next direction for yields?

Look at the divergence between the Nasdaq and yields — uncommon. But the one thing yields haven’t been able to do is predict a downturn. If anything, when the spread between the two widens, it’s time to short treasuries — since yields bottom out and shoot higher with stocks.

The sector that will benefit most of a rise in yields are the banks. The sectors that will be hurt: REITs, Utes, and high dividend paying old man stocks.

Your opinions are invalid and undefined. This is exactly what is going to happen, which means I will be closing out my TMF and TLT positions shortly.

BTW: My Quant portfolio was higher by 2.15% today. What did your mechanized portfolio do?

Good day.