Exited Weed Stocks in a Plume of Smoke Victorious

I sold NBEV this morning, which was a double sized position, for an outrageous return of 45%. If you recall, incredulously, I bought MOAR on Friday, while it was +30% for the day. This is how I roll.

Additionally, I sold TLRY for a modest 21 point gain, or +15%.

Those two sales put my cash position back to 20% and now I’ll be reallocating the Exodus Quant for October.

As you can tell, I just saw Sicario 2 — a very good film and acting performance by Del Toro. The headline mimics a line in the film and applies nicely this morning, especially for GE and TSLA shorts. I don’t mean to ridicule or piss in your disgraced waters; but it must be said. You cannot keep up this routine, always being contrarian, attempting to profit during a great bull market.

The only way to be in a bull market is bullish. The only manner to trade in a bull market is to chase momentum. Period. For longer term investors, follow quarterly trends and allocate sensibly.

Pre-market, both TSLA and GE are up like cannabis stock, +15% a piece. Speaking of cannabis stocks, they’re running again and I’ll likely book profits in NBEV and TLRY.

Today is reallocation day for Exodus Quant, so I’ll be busy for the first two hours of the day.

Happy trading.

Just when you thought President Trump’s MAGA hat was out of style, in comes a new NAFTA deal to coerce everyone to start wearing them again. I fully expect to see all of my friends in Princeton prancing about Palmer Square tomorrow in their vintage MAGA hats, sipping on glasses of chardonnay.

The news is fruitful and also bountiful.

The deal will also modernize what was covered by NAFTA by adding provisions on digital trade and intellectual property, the administration official said.

A U.S. official also pointed to the prospect of enforcing the agreement, calling it “one of the most enforceable trade agreements we’ve ever had.”

“This is going to be real, and it’s going to change people’s lives, and it’s going to make the U.S. economy stronger and better,” that official said.

Of note, the new trade pact will come up for review every six years, which will give the U.S. a “significant new form of leverage” to make sure the arrangement is to its liking, according to that senior American official.

The issue of enforcement was front and center in a statement on the deal from Senate Finance Committee Ranking Member Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore.

“As I’ve said many times, NAFTA has long needed a serious overhaul,” he said. “The crucial test for a new NAFTA, or any new trade agreement, is whether it is enforceable, particularly with respect to promises to protect worker rights and the environment. Americans are sick of hearing speeches about the benefits of new trade agreements when the agreements in place aren’t even enforced and their opportunities don’t materialize.”

On this news, futures are +175. This is one heck of a way to start off Q4. I’ll be reallocating the entire Exodus Quant portfolio tomorrow, which will be focused on mega caps.

Sleep tight Tesla shorts.

I just got done cavorting in some of the dicier areas of NJ on a real estate expedition. Without casting wide aspersions and insulting stupid people without cause, it should be noted, as an observer of people and their ridiculous actions, that the poor are dumb and the dumb are poor. I mean that both figuratively and literally of course. There is a genetic reason for failure, abject perversion, gauche clothing, poor hygiene, and a general poor demeanor that is both mean spirited and criminal. People with money live gentler lives, and preside over generations of genetic curation. As such, they’re smarter, prettier, and easier to keep company.

This doesn’t mean the rich are a moral kind of people. As a matter of fact, too much money often perverts the mind and creates a vacuum and instills a lack of purpose in a man, which leads to all sorts of bad things.

Case in point, American Pickers. These fucking boomer retards travel the country in search of absolute junk, catering to an upper class in America that obsesses over collectibles. Believe me, I get why people collect. I’ve collected baseball cards, old newspapers, and bodies of my enemies for many years. But these fuckers take hoarding to a next level, sopping up random pieces of brass junk for $500 at a clip — a Harley frame for $10,000, old gas station signs for $300. FUCK YOURSELVES.

I hate these guys

I know some men who collect stocks like junk, with portfolios fitted for morons. I’ve seen portfolios with over 1,000 stocks in it — completely bogged down in mediocrity by men with too much money and not enough wits to grow properly. The most interesting thing to me is watching very smart people do stupid things, especially when it comes to investing. There’s never a reason to own more than 50 stocks. If you do, you’re asking for trouble. There’s no way you can properly keep track of so many positions. More importantly, you’ll never crush the SPY.

You know who you are, you fuckers. You’re the same type with junk in the attic, shit in the basement, fixing on how to hang onto your 4th wife.

David Einhorn is a legitimately good person, in spite of his immense wealth. His long term track record is one to be envious of and his grasp of financial matters is second to none. So how the fuck is his fund down 26% YTD?

We’ve all been there, haven’t we? But Greenlight’s struggles have been ongoing for years, resulting in redemptions and all sorts of fucked up articles like this one. But this isn’t meant to poke fun at David. Plus anyway, he’s winning the game of life in numerous ways, much greater than me, so who the fuck am I to critique him? With this particular tape, during this very moment, Greenlight Capital hasn’t a clue what they’re doing.

According to the most recent filings, these are Einhorn’s positions.

Why?

I get value investors need to droll on in boring ass stocks in a flaccid attempt to extract returns, but that right there is ridiculous. GM, really? The stock is down 18% for the year and showing no signs of a turn. Brighthouse Financial, ticker BHF, is down by 24% this year. MYL is also a bowser, off by 13%. In addition to his wrong longs, he reportedly has a ‘Bubble Basket’ of high value names that he’s short. I recall this revelation in 2014 and I attempted to mirror it based upon his criteria.

My Bubble Basket inside Exodus is +93% for the year.

In other words, Greenlight is short the best stocks, flying higher in the face of unreal and surreal valuations, whilst his value longs get beat down to a pulp. The entire value space has been disjointed and flayed during 2018. Have a look at some of these fucking stocks — spearheaded by the pavement apes at GE.

BALs (Big Ass Losses)

Is there a teachable moment here?

YES.

You aren’t smarter than the market. As much shit as I talk about being the best trader to have ever lived and not on the verge of suicide, I place 75% of my account in a Quant, designed by me, to track the market and become a slave to trends. If Greenlight wants to turn things around, they need to dump those fucking stocks and start fresh, long the names that are working — because during a bull market like this, one that defies all logic and tenets of value investing, you must conform or you will be eliminated.

Like all things in life, Darwinism applies here, filtering out those who’ve gotten weak and stubborn, rewarding those who are malleable and energetic.

Listen to me, it’s impossible for me to lose. And even when I lose, it’s more of a joke than anything else. I had an incredible quarter and a grand summer. I’ve been many things on this blog, comedian, artist, writer, malcontent, asshole, political hack, spammer, salesman etc. I am none of those things now. I am a blunt fucking instrument of profit, to be used expressly for the purposes of crushing everything in my path. Maybe the last part was a bit superfluous in its violent expression, but you get my drift.

What’s important to note is the data and also the trends.

Industry winners for q3

There’s no need for me to tell you about the losers. No one cares and you shouldn’t be focusing on ill performers during a bull market.

I want you to take a free trial for Exodus, only email is required. It is a priceless tool, both the data and for the people and community; I guarantee it’ll make you a better trader and investor. For swing traders, The Pelican Room is where the action is, with comments streaming 24 hours per day. For longer term investors, the Exodus Quant rebalances on a monthly basis and is geared to chase alpha, rooted in fundamental analysis. Don’t worry about not getting it. I have a comprehensive email process that is designed to teach you how to use the tools, seamlessly. If that doesn’t work, we’ll hop on a demo and straighten you the fuck out.

Gotta run — things to do, dumb bells to lift.

This is a calculated risk. Normally I wouldn’t do something as risky as this — but I’m feeling some zeal on this glorious Friday morning and figured what better way to show appreciation for the gifts bestowed upon me by my DNA sequence than to press the pedal down and turn up the gas on my NBEV position.

My basis is now $4.73 and it represents 10% of my portfolio.

Cannabis tea is gonna happen and what better brand than Marley Beverages?

Also, I stepped in and bought some XON — a Randall Fucking Kirk company, based on their interest in cannabis drugs.

We’re living in a new world now. Either adapt or become irrelevant.

NOTE: My cash has dwindled down to $00.00. I am fully invested.

Come take a free trial inside Exodus. Click on that link — only email is required. You won’t regret it, believe me.

I just bought this stock exactly $100 higher from where I sold it.

My price target is $420, at which point my funding will be secured, indefinitely.

Thus far, I am long three cannabis plays: TLRY, NBEV, and BLRX.

The reps are Merrill are no longer permitted to buy stocks under $5 or with market caps under $300m.

Below is my analysis. Prove me wrong.

Merrill Lynch bans low priced, low market cap stocks — because their reps are infants who only deserve to pound the phones all day long to hit their quotas. pic.twitter.com/TpoqrGQ9lX

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) September 28, 2018

People should not be dealing with micro caps all the time. They’re bad for your financial health. But having a ban on them is ridiculous and tantamount of infantile behavior, on behalf of the complianceFAGS at Merrill. Fact: complianceFAGS are salty AF and jealous of all reps because they make 10x what they take home. Fact: management only wants drones drilling the phones all day long to raise assets for advisory plans. Fact: if you work at Merrill, you’re an idiot.

Some of you forgot the credit crisis of 2012, when the Italians and the Spanish and the Greeks were the precipice of disaster. Things got so bad, even the French were at risk, with rapidly ascending bond yields. The only countries in Europe worth anything are the nordic nations, Switzerland, and Germany.

Italian markets are lower by more than 4%, dragging the rest of Europe down with it, due to new government spending, of the socialist nature.

Late on Thursday, Italy’s coalition government approved a budget that set the target for next year’s deficit at 2.4 percent of gross domestic product. That’s more than the 2 percent limit Finance Minister Giovanni Tria was said to be willing to tolerate, and high enough to ensure pushback from the European Commission when the government presents its plan in mid-October.

It’s not the headline deficit number itself that’s spooking bondholders. It’s less than the 3 percent level demanded of euro members, though still not low enough to tackle Italy’s debt-to-GDP ratio of more than 130 percent. And the euro’s muted reaction shows that traders don’t see this developing into an existential crisis for the common currency project.

More worrying is the febrile political backdrop to the budget proposal, which includes a basic income for the poor, tax cuts and a reversal of previously announced plans to raise the retirement age. There’s also justified concern that Deputy Premiers Matteo Salvini and Luigi Di Maio will continue to find new populist political projects that will need funding, further testing the patience of their finance minister.

Speculation that Tria will resign from the finance ministry has become something of a daily event. “I won’t quit, for the good of the country,” Repubblica cited him as saying. “There would be the risk of a financial storm. We would throw the country into chaos.”

He’s absolutely correct. Tria’s resignation would prompt another re-rating of Italy’s creditworthiness, and not for the better. Italy’s ratings are already at risk, with both Moody’s Investors Service and Standard & Poor’s slated to update their assessments of the nation’s creditworthiness next month.

Traders who drove Italian two- and 10-year yields up by 27 basis points on Friday, to 1.05 percent and 3.15 percent respectively, are right to be concerned. Italy’s newfound appetite for increased government spending comes just as the European Central Bank is planning to withdraw some of its support from the government bond market by halting its sovereign debt purchases by the end of the year.

“The fence that protects the prey will soon be lifted,” Claudio Borghi, head of the budget committee in Italy’s lower house, told Bloomberg News in an interview last month.

Moreover, falling government bond prices don’t just hurt bond investors. The so-called doom loop between European banks and their sovereign bond holdings is still very much in effect. The banking sector was the worst-performer in the Stoxx Europe 600 index on Friday.

“We don’t fear the markets,” Stefano Patuanelli, head of the Five Star group of senators, said soon after the budget plans were unveiled. But the markets do fear the next scene in this political and economic drama, and they are correct to be wary.

At current levels, Italy’s 10-year debt yields about 265 basis points more than German bonds. More tussles between the government and its finance minister, or signs that the European Commission will play hardball when the budget plan is presented, and the spread could easily blow through the 290 basis-point high set on Aug. 31.

Basic income for the poor? Good luck with that fucked-faces. You’re living off the German tit, Italy. Your country is insolvent because you’re government is led by criminals. Nothing to see here, other than sharply higher bond prices. We’re to deal with this bullshit again, the violent dance between German, Swiss, and the PIGS — scaring people back into a technocracy.

Our markets are weak in the pre-market, Nasdaq futures off by 26. The dollar is higher by 0.5% v the euro, not bad with all things considered. Since it’s a Friday and ‘who knows what can happen over the weekend’, you should expect markets to remain weak all day.