There’s Only One Way to Survive a Market Like This — And Life Advice from Dr. Le Fly

The Chinese-America trade war doesn’t officially go into effect until mid-May. God willing, there will be negotiations that fail and the tariffs could go right into effect, absolutely fucking all of you morons long Chinese equities.

Just last week, China’s second largest maker of communication equipment, ZTE, was slapped with a 7 year ban from the United States for being an egregious company, currently and now deemed a national security risk.

ZTE sold sanctioned equipment to Iran and for that — fucking banned.

“ZTE made false statements to the U.S. government when they were originally caught and put on the Entity List, made false statements during the reprieve it was given, and made false statements again during its probation,” Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said in a written statement. “Instead of reprimanding ZTE staff and senior management, ZTE rewarded them. This egregious behavior cannot be ignored.”

This had an ancillary effect on US optical makers, such as Acacia, who’s shares fucking plunged last week by 30%.

Now China is throwing shade at the proposed $44b merger between Qualcomm and NXP — causing both stocks to Mcplunge lower by ~5%. The possible blowbacks to a true Americana trade war with China will be hardest felt in the semis and the textile industry.

Perhaps you should be making arrangements to exit these shares?

The semis topped in March and are now steamrolling lower.

As per the NY Times, here is the short-term timeline on the looming trade war.

On May 1, exemptions to the tariffs on imported steel and aluminum expire.

On May 22, the public comment period ends for another $50 billion worth of tariffs, and the Trump administration can announce a final list of targets.

And Aug. 18 is potentially the deadline for the administration to act on an investigation into Chinese trade practices. But there’s a provision for a 180-day delay after that.

Key caveats: President Trump has the power to pursue trade policy almost at whim. And a W.T.O. proceeding against China could take years.

Over the past two years, I’ve seen first hand an incredible amount of media censorship. Some of it made sense, but the vast majority of it was for political purposes. Breitbart is reporting this afternoon of a scheme by senior engineer, Alon Altman, who actively lobbied the company in internal memos to “brick” Trump’s Android, ban his gmail account, along with members of his administration, ban alt-right videos from youtube, and the demonetize websites with a conservative slant.

Apparently, this is her face.

Alon Altman, Senior Engineer, Google

And here is her retarded email.

This information was revealed in the discrimination lawsuit of a James Damore vs Google, who was fired for publishing an ‘anti-diversity’ manifesto.

Each and every year, the seasonal trends repeat themselves. About this time of year, the faggotry media run articles like this — DON’T MISS OUT ON THE GREAT COMMODITY RALLY TO COME…

Truth is, the person who wrote that article is probably a fat faced alpha male who is a shitty investor. If he bothered to take a look at the facts, he’d see this trend is persistent and incredibly predictable.

Notice how people made money in commodities before May and then blew the fuck up afterwards? That’s right — if you find yourselves heeding the advice of CNBC — you’re liable to get beat the fuck out in about two weeks flat.

Here’s one way to use big data to make investment choices. Gather up enough information on seasonal trends and form a thesis. Exodus has a thousand different ways to help you win — quit being so damned stubborn and join the league of top hatted gents already. Summer is just around the bend and the champagne parties will be keeping you too busy to mind the portfolio. Plus, your fat faced manager is likely to blow your account the fuck out. Have faith in the algorithms and the data — for they do not lie.

In short, be long oil and other basic materials, short semis, biotech.

Some names.

A visual on how predictable oil is this time of year.

WTF sort of propaganda is this? Do you mean to tell me Carl ‘give me three seats on your board’ Icahn is a shitty investor? Or how about Dan Loeb?

Nerds did a study using over 3,000 test subjects, categorizing men by (get this) their ‘facial width-to-height ratio’ — and have concluded that, scientifically, they are inferior traders to betas.

While we’re on the topic of short-wide faces, there is data that backs up the theory that these men should be eliminated from society. In fact, en masse, they’re far more likely to be convicted and executed than men with longer faces.

In fact, the facial width to height ratio is an excellent predictor in all types of behavior, stemming from criminology to sex drive, even to success. While short fat faced men are more apt to be overly aggressive, claw-hammering-violent deviants — that same behavior tends to make them utterly useless traders.

After years of underperformance, researchers may have discovered what’s plaguing the hedge-fund industry: too much testosterone.

Hedge-fund managers with high testosterone underperform those with low testosterone by 5.8 percent each year, according to a study conducted by University of Central Florida and Singapore Management University.

The researchers used a software to measure the facial width-to-height ratio — proven to be a proxy for testosterone levels — of more than 3,000 hedge-fund managers. After controlling for variables such as risk and market environment, the researchers found that not only do higher-testosterone managers’ funds produce lower returns, but they also have a greater propensity to be terminated.

High testosterone managers “trade more frequently, have a stronger preference for lottery-like stocks and are more likely to succumb to the disposition effect,” the report said.

The researchers also found that hedge-fund investors — specifically, hedge fund-of-funds — select managers based on their own testosterone levels. In other words, higher testosterone fund-of-hedge funds are more likely to invest in higher testosterone managers, while the reverse is true for lower testosterone.

The results of the study may have implications for hedge-fund performance as well as hedge fund culture, which tends to prize aggression, competitiveness and drive.

If this study is true, perhaps the prevalence of alpha males is what’s eroding alpha.

Alphas are attracted to other alphas, who the get blown the fuck out by alpha like behavior in hedge funds that are treated like giant lottery pools. This is great news for those of you searching for investment advisors — just look at their fucking faces.

If they have faces like this — don’t invest.

Alpha-male, moron investor

If your manager is a flaccid soft spoken cuck and looks like this:

Cuckold, Legendary investor

He’s likely to make you a fortune.

Feel free to prove this theory wrong.

Pro-tip: you can’t.

Every retard west of the Nile is long FAANG in their asset management plans because MUH hedge fund hotel, liquidity, and MUH awesome returns. The profile of the FANNG basket is as follows:

FB, AMZN, AAPL, NFLX, GOOGL

Median market cap: $590b
Median PE: 59
Median P/S: 6.8
Median Sharpe: 1.20

Avg YTD Returns: +21%

The trillion dollar question is, can Exodus find the next gimmicky acronym based investment strategy?

Answer: fuck yeah.

BEHOLD: CARBS

CRM, ADBE, RTN, BA, STO

Median market cap: $93b
Median PE: 30
Median P/S: 2.4
Median Sharpe: 2.29

Avg YTD Returns: +23%

Here are good reasons for you to swap out of FAANG and into CARBS.

#1 CARBS represents war, and missile, and shit.
#2 CARBS got some Norwegian oil in it, and FANNG has none.
#3 valuation wise, CARBS is far less retarded than FAANG and the laws of large numbers aren’t at a critical stage yet.

Now that I’ve solved the issue of finding a new acronym based investment theme, you can quickly call your clients and tell them the good news.

Chocolate sales in China have doubled the past decade, whilst supply for the main ingredient for the decadent treat, cacao, dwindles due to poor weather and fucked up crops.

Because people in America are eating healthier, opting for chocolate bars consisting of high levels of cacao (personally, I prefer 70%) — a crop shortage looms by 2020.

It’s a $98 billion per annum market and chocolate nerds and global warming are menacing supplies to the point that some believe it will be extinct by 2050.

NOAA warns that 89.5% of land currently used to cultivate cacao will no longer be suitable by 2050. The agency recommends focusing on farming specific breeds of cacao seeds that are resistant to drought and supporting more efforts to grow cacao seeds using a traditional Brazilian method called cabruca, in which additional trees are planted in the rainforest to provide cacao trees with shade—a critical element the seeds need to survive.

The Ivory Coast represents 33% of world supply and they’ve been getting hammered with rain, too much rain in fact, which is damaging the second crop of the season. The first crops were damaged by drought.

Although an unseasonably dry spell has hit Ivory Coast, there has been so much rain in recent weeks that sentiment is shifting, said Commerzbank. The rains could damage the second crop of the current season and that “heavy rain could tear the fruits from the trees before they have fully ripened,” it said.

Citigroup is also bullish on cocoa. “Cocoa balances are expected to shift from surplus to deficit on lower world production and processors returning to the market,” it said.

The subsequent result of all this hand-wringing is +50% jump in the price of cocoa.

On the other side of the trade is HSY — lower by 15% for the year — all thanks to you gluttonous Hansel and Gretel acting motherfuckers stuffing your fat faces with gigantic bars of 70% cacao.

I can’t wait until there’s no chocolate left and you’re forced to eat shit.