iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,414 Blog Posts

$NIB +50% For the Year, As Cacao Shortage Looms

Chocolate sales in China have doubled the past decade, whilst supply for the main ingredient for the decadent treat, cacao, dwindles due to poor weather and fucked up crops.

Because people in America are eating healthier, opting for chocolate bars consisting of high levels of cacao (personally, I prefer 70%) — a crop shortage looms by 2020.

It’s a $98 billion per annum market and chocolate nerds and global warming are menacing supplies to the point that some believe it will be extinct by 2050.

NOAA warns that 89.5% of land currently used to cultivate cacao will no longer be suitable by 2050. The agency recommends focusing on farming specific breeds of cacao seeds that are resistant to drought and supporting more efforts to grow cacao seeds using a traditional Brazilian method called cabruca, in which additional trees are planted in the rainforest to provide cacao trees with shade—a critical element the seeds need to survive.

The Ivory Coast represents 33% of world supply and they’ve been getting hammered with rain, too much rain in fact, which is damaging the second crop of the season. The first crops were damaged by drought.

Although an unseasonably dry spell has hit Ivory Coast, there has been so much rain in recent weeks that sentiment is shifting, said Commerzbank. The rains could damage the second crop of the current season and that “heavy rain could tear the fruits from the trees before they have fully ripened,” it said.

Citigroup is also bullish on cocoa. “Cocoa balances are expected to shift from surplus to deficit on lower world production and processors returning to the market,” it said.

The subsequent result of all this hand-wringing is +50% jump in the price of cocoa.

On the other side of the trade is HSY — lower by 15% for the year — all thanks to you gluttonous Hansel and Gretel acting motherfuckers stuffing your fat faces with gigantic bars of 70% cacao.

I can’t wait until there’s no chocolate left and you’re forced to eat shit.

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28 comments

  1. mensch

    Dark chocolate tastes like shit. In my locale you can barely find decent milk chocolate because all they carry in stores is the dark stuff past a certain price point.

    First world problems man.

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  2. ferd

    “Anyone who thinks that Assad is not completely retarded and that he is unlikely to have chosen to use chemical weapons after he had won the war …is Hitler”

    Deep Thoughts by Trader Confessions 2018

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    • sarcrilege

      the marxists are now saying it was a false false flag – Assad did know it will look improbable; thus, he can do it because if he did it it would look like he didn’t do it…. you follow?

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    • chuck bennett

      Trainer confessions is mentally retarded

      But I don’t judge him.

      Regards

      Chuck Bennett

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  3. ferd

    High comedy on Amanpour’s show last night …as, with a deeply furrowed brow, the former CIA chief under Obama criticized President Spanky for not having a strategy re Syria. As you know, it was Panetta, the CIA head under Obama, who destroyed that country. These fuckers live on a different planet.

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  4. traderconfessions
    traderconfessions

    Nope… just those who approve of using poison gas like SAC are bitty-Hitlers. Those who don’t believe Assad has used poison gas to kill his own people are just retarded. Okee-dokey?

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    • ferd

      No. We’ve been talking about the recent SPECIFIC INSTANCE that cause you warmongers to support an illegal air strike on Syria. No one that I’ve seen here has ever posited that the regime in Syria has never used such weapons. Don’t be a dissembling douche.

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    • juice

      NO-kee dokey

      but it’s good to know you approved of the US-taxpayers funding of $150,000 unloading of weapons on empty chemical-less buidlings

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      • juice

        $150 million that is .. my bad

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        • Lyndon Keltner

          Money well spent if you ask Trump. He needed to distract and he thought it was a mission accomplished but then shit (i.e., Sean Hannity) happened.

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  5. Lyndon Keltner

    @ferd

    Re: Silver

    I started the position at 17.15 this morning and added/will be adding to it up to 18.10 (every nickel higher) in the next 23 hours. The target exit is 10 ticks below the average position price. So, ideally, I would like to see another surge tonight/tomorrow so I get to average up.

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    • ferd

      If we get a move to 18.10 in the next 23 hours, I’ll have to change my shorts. In any case, if you’re doing futures …yikes. I would not to average short into a 95 cent move up.

      I figure that there may be a big move higher setting up. Might see a pull back to the 16.90 area before it rips. Who knows.

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      • Lyndon Keltner

        Just doing a couple of contracts per nickel. I don’t make bets that I can’t afford.

        Silver doesn’t have the momentum to move 95 cents in 23 hours. That’s why any blast higher to that magnitude will certainly be faded.

        The culprits of this systemic up-move are oil and aluminum. Gold and silver are just riding the wave.

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        • ferd

          If you can afford to short two contracts per nickel from 17.15 to 18.10 with out working up a sweat …I want to have your baby.

          Melania. Trump

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          • Lyndon Keltner

            I do a sufficient amount of math and backtest before entering any trade to reduce the amount of sweat. Also, I keep my max-loss triggers on to protect my accounts.

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  6. chuck bennett

    Dark chocolate sucks

    Regards

    Chuck Bennett

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  7. Lyndon Keltner

    @infinitezuul

    And of course you had to hoop on the one trade that I got wrong as quickly as you could, because you did’t get to say shit when I was right as fuck like I was on Monday.

    http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2018/04/15/military-industrial-complex-numbers/

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  8. og

    HMNY pumped before another offering…

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    • numbersgame

      I highly recommend that new traders/investors buy this stock.

      Investors will see how hype vs. reality pans out. Traders will feel like geniuses right up unitl the margin call. Pain is a good learning tool.

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  9. chuck bennett

    Og

    I saw that. Nice little move from sub 3 to 4

    Regards

    Chuck Bennett

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  10. numbersgame

    Adults (bitter):
    Wine, Beer, Dark chocolate/ dark hot cocoa

    Kids (sugary):
    Grape juice, root beer, Milk chocolate/Chocolate milk

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    • Lyndon Keltner

      You forgot about KETCHUP/catsup. A fucking abomination.

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  11. ferd

    Bunch of precious, leggings-wearing, kale-munching, anti-milkchocolate-ites. Chuck’s got it right.

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