I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
3,852 Blog Posts

Put your Vs up, still bullish, bullish into 2019

My bullishness these last 5-or-6 weeks looks foolish in hindsight.  I realize that as well as you do.  There is not much I could have done to avoid this drawdown.  I could have given the failed auction at the beginning of October more weight.  There’s that.  At the risk of looking like a broken clock [not caring so much what I look like] I am once again writing a bullish Sunday blog entry.  I am bullish heading into 2019.

I do not acknowledge that we are in a bear market.  The way people numerically assign this market as being a bear or some other market as being a bull is just another social construct that only exists inside the human brain.  Quite frankly, I think humans are the most out of touch mammals on the planet.  They do not spend enough intimate time with plants or mushrooms.  If they lived in closer proximity to both, and stopped being flesh-eating maniacs, then maybe I would assign more value to their collective thoughts.

We have a long way to go.  The NASDAQ is about 18% lower than its October 1st close.  One of the positions I initiated at the beginning of October [$ALGN] is about -50% over the last three months.  It’s as much a loss of time as it is U.S. fiat dollars on a computer screen.  Other names have been resilient, real resilient.

Like Tesla, all these flat earthers have been mother fucking wrong about that one, ammirite? I’m sorry for swearing. Listen, Larry Ellison joined the Tesla board or directors last week.  Larry, the evil billionaire from Oracle.  If you work in the finance department of any major company, you know what Oracle is like—you cannot escape Oracle.  Oracle makes it all work and you pay your tithing to Larry Ellison whether or not you want to.  The fate of all corporate souls lies in the hands of Larry muh fuckin’ Ellison.  That sort of genius is now a personal guide to Tesla.  I’d imagine they are no longer paying tithing to Oracle either.  Have fun betting against that.

It’s not too late.  To buy Tesla or solar or CRISPR or whatever public stock has a mission you believe in down to your plums.  Truthfully, a lack of faith in your investments will result in you losing lots-and-lots of money.  Will Google’s ideals persevere over the next ten years?  Will Fords?  Two totally different scenarios.  Each able to invoke an emotional response.  Avoid that.  Emotions and investing don’t mix.

There’s still bitcoin.  I had far less bitcoin conversations this holiday, but the few I did have were significantly more meaningful than hearing the regurgitated media talking points 100 times last year.  I still like bitcoin, and since I have no idea what all this forking business is about, I like having some exposure to the other bitcoins too, CASH, GOLD, and SV.

To me, I see little difference between the current market structure and the structure we’ve seen at the beginning of any other ‘v-shape’ recovery since this bull market began got its legs back in ’16.  Fractals of fractals, magnitudes are different, measurements are different, shapes are the same.

There is a key piece of context I will be watching into 2019, it’s the PHLX semiconductor index.  Semiconductors have been the primary driver of our recent growth.  If you recall, our big theme heading into 2018 was Moore’s Law, exponential growth, the rise of AI, and the ushering in of the roaring ’20s, a period of economic prosperity the likes of which no living human has ever seen.  After seeing the behavior of our new Federal Reserve Chairman, Jay Powell, I will only add that this exponential growth theory that economic prosperity will be concentrated among less people than I initially realized.  The wealth gap will widen, super wealth will be enjoyed by a select few.

If you have any ideas for pushing yourself over to the right side of the wealth gap before hyper-growth really takes hold, I suggest you put your head down and execute those ideas with an intense urgency.  Otherwise prepare to be left in a massive pool of poverty while others are gilding their staircases with gold and lining their purses with blocked-chain.

You can lose your temper because forces beyond your control are affecting reality in a way you don’t like, or you can remove yourself from the observation, open you third eye, and take a bite out of the pie for yourself and your people before it’s too late.

Ideals are fine unless they hinder your ability to create and execute a solid plan.

Finally, you have no idea how much it means to me that you invest your time into reading my blog,  that you invest your time and money into my research, and how must all your interactions my content help me.  I am so grateful for the community of investors and traders I have to opportunity to interact with both locally in Detroit and online.  I truly believe we can rise up together.  There is plenty of opportunity and no reason for us to wish ill upon each other.  I am not always the best at communicating how you guys help me become a better trader, investor, business man, and human, but you do!  Thank you for all you do.

Here’s to another year of approaching the markets with a steady hand and calm mind, explicitly for the reason of extracting U.S. dollars from the global financial complex.


RAUL SANTOS, December 30th, 2018

Exodus members, I know the fourth quarter has been a grind.  The 215th edition of Strategy Session is live, check out exactly what I am looking at on the PHLX semiconductor index, and be sure to read through all of Section III and let me know if you have any questions, thank you!

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  1. unclebuccs

    Thanks for all you do, Raul. Definitely looking forward to what 2019 brings…

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  2. tjnyt

    Appreciate your wisdom and upbeat sentiment. wish you all happy and prosperous 20019.

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