iBankCoin
Home / Raul3

Raul3

I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations

Stepping back

I am feeeeling very fragile this weekend. There are all sorts of nice folks here on the interwebs and I appreciate the interactions. I cannot describe what is going on any more than saying ma vibe is off.

I am going to be off the desk through Tuesday. Maybe by Wednesday I’ll wiggle myself back into tune.

Okay for now.

Raul Santos, October 17th 2021

Here is the 360th Strategy Session. Enjoy.


Stocklabs Strategy Session: 10/22/21 – 10/18/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.43, medium bull*. Selling pressure early in the week. Then look for markets to pivot higher either Wednesday or Thursday, perhaps fueled by Tesla and Intel earnings.

*Rose Colored Sunglasses bearish bias triggered, see Section V.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Little rally Monday morning was faded through Tuesday. Choppy but up slightly Wednesday. Strong rally Thursday with some follow-through strength Friday and into the weekend.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Materials lead the way. Not great. But they were flanked by Discretionary and Tech and sectors were up across the board.

slighty bullish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Seven weeks back we had a major bullish skew and that really hasn’t been negated yet. Last week the ledger skewed slightly to the positive side but not in a major way.

slightly bullish

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

Indexmodel pinned bearish?

I am beginning to wonder if the tweaks to Stocklabs algorithm are leading to IndexModel producing all these bearish biases.

I have to see how the performs these next weeks, but my antenna is definitely tingling.

Something might need to be tweaked. I will leave everything untouched for now.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Selling pressure early in the week. Then look for markets to pivot higher either Wednesday or Thursday, perhaps fueled by Tesla and Intel earnings.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Clean levels heading into next week

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports might be starting a new leg of discovery. They are coming into the week right on the golden Fibonacci level from the entire down move that began in May.

See below:

Semiconductors broke down from the rising wedge. Heading into next week price is returning to the scene of the breakdown, which aligns nicely with the Fibonacci also.

I speculate that the breakdown may have done wonders to stop out some traders and this key index may resume its uptrend.

But for now we can monitor this level and assess whether we are still in balance or instead resuming discovery up.

Intel earnings Thursday after the bell may give clarity to this situation.

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is Rose Colored Sunglasses [RCS] bearish for a second consecutive week after being neutral two reports back after signaling Rose Colored Sunglasses [RCS] bearish three weeks ago. It was neutral the prior two weeks after being Rose Colored Sunglasses [RCS] bearish six weeks back after being neutral seven reports back and Rose Colored Sunglasses bearish for the two consecutive weeks prior to that.

We had a Bunker Buster thirty three weeks ago.

Indexmodel keeps flipping between neutral and bearish and I am slightly skeptical of the data.

Here is the current spread:

VI. Twelve Month Hybrid Oversold

On Tuesday, September 28th Stocklabs went hybrid oversold on the 12-month algorithm. This is a bullish cycle that runs through Tuesday, October 12th end-of-day. Here is the final performance of each major index:

VIII. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“Man is not above nature, but in nature.” – Ernst Haeckel

Trade simple, relax

Comments »

Sold the american franchisor; bought the german hedonist

I spent more than a year long Del Taco only to take a small loss on the position today. My thesis was sound:

This place makes delicious tacos using Beyond Meat and you can also buy crinkle cut french fries. CRINKLE CUT. They are the crack. Their restaurants are the right format to serve folks weary of the COVID bug. There is room for so many more of their shops throughout fat america. This is a growth story that just perfectly fits our current environment.

I listened to the  conference call this morning using the QUARTR app which you should all go download right now. It is an amazing app for working through conference calls, which are really quite interesting. You can skip right to Q&A and they have transcripts. I have no idea how this app is free.

Anyhow I’m listening to the Del Taco conference call whilst doing leg lifts in front of my 70 inch Samsung television, watching dozens of delicately interconnected securities drift along as I keep my core tight and clean. Discussion between the Wedbush analyst and management made it obvious minimum wage is killing them and I don’t see that trend changing course since Universal Basic Income is inevitable.

A huge crispy chicken campaign. Attempts to gain exposure to high-density regions like downtown Los Angelas. Have you been to LA? The best taco snacks you’ve ever had in your entire life.

If they focused on making beyond burritos and their delicious crinkle cut fries available at high volume throughways and via delivery apps I would be all about Del Taco. But I sense a whole lot of tone deafness on the executive team and I left.

Meanwhile, I invested into a biotech company in Berlin that is developing therapies using ketamine, nicotine, MDMA and ibogaine; basically all the drugs us degenerate ravers have used recreationally since the ’90s. Some of the world’s finest hedonists live in Germany. And I’d be so brave as to say the period of Bavarian enlightenment chronicled by Herman Hess to be one of the most meaningful advances in human psycho-technologies over the last 150 years. I like the idea of them heckin’ sex loving Germans being free to tinker with a bunch of really nice chemicals in the name of therapy.

Therefore I swapped out a long-term investment in TACO for one in ATAI.

The way biotech has struggled these last several months reminds me of how energy was totally wrecked during The Great Valentine’s Day Massacre flush:

Remember how we went long WES and PTR then? And have continued to be bullish on oil since? Despite conventional thinking being that oil plays would suffer under Joe ‘Executive order’ Biden?

Same approach here.

Just dumped Del Taco at the same time and it seems funny to compare a tone deaf fast food executive to an ambiguous german drug dealer.

Okay for now.

Raul Santos, October 15th 2021

Comments »

Semiconductors buttressed by $TSM earnings // retail sales strong // here is Friday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday up a modest +50 after an overnight session featuring elevated range on extreme volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing up above the Thursday high. We briefly traded up into the 09/27 range. At 8:30 am retail sales data came out stronger than expected, and as we approach cash open price is hovering just below the 09/27 lows.

Major NASDAQ component Taiwan semiconductor reported stronger-than-expected earnings on improved margins. Shares of the chip maker are +2.44% in pre-market trade.

Also on the economic calendar today we have business inventories and consumer sentiment at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a trend up. The day began with a pro gap up and after a brief two-way auction outside range price drove higher, pausing for a bit along the 10/07 VPOC before continuing to campaign higher. Price chopped along the 09/28 high for a few hours before ramping up into open air into the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up through overnight high 15,112.75 on the way to tagging 15,141.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers close the 09/27 gap up at 15,185.50.

Hypo 3 sellers work down into overnight inventory and close the gap to 15,049 then take out overnight low 15,020.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ stabilizes overnight, here is Wednesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was fairly balanced overnight, bouncing along the weekly lows a two-ticking below them briefly before a little 3:30am rally saw price decidedly return to the Tuesday midpoint. At 8:30am CPI data came out in-line with expectations. As we approach cash open price is hovering along the Tuesday midpoint.

Also on the economic calendar today we have a 30-year bond auction at 1pm. Then at 2pm we have a Treasury statement along with the FOMC minutes.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began with a gap up in range. Sellers quickly resolved the overnight gap and then took out the Monday low. Sellers held the mid for the rest of the session and we chopped below it until settlement period when sellers pressed price back down to the lows.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers press up to 14,800 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 14,613.50. This sets up a move down through the overnight low 14,586 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers liquidate down to 14,500.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ reclaims Monday range // here is morning trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price initially drove lower overnight, pressing down through the Monday low and about a quarter of the way into last Wednesday’s range. Then price stabilized and we balanced below the Monday range until about 4:45am New York when buyers reclaimed the lows. Since then price has rallied to tag the Monday midpoint briefly, and as we approach cash open price is hovering along the Monday lows.

On the economic calendar today we have JOLTS at 10am, 6-month bill nd 3-year note auctions at 11:30am. Then we have 3-month bill and 10-year note auctions at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down. The day began with a gap down below the prior two days ranges. After a brief open auction outside range buyers stepped in and drove higher, effectively closing the overnight gap and continuing higher up through last Friday’s midpoint. Buyers stalled after a brief range extension up and sellers pounced on the tape. Said sellers reclaimed the daily midpoint by about 1:15pm and the defended the mid, setting up a liquidation into settlement that pushed us into a neutral print.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to press up to 14,859 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers test above Monday high 14,897.25, setting up a run to 14,950.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 14,586.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

That could have been the exit pump

I don’t like to speak in certainties. I have a software and a spreadsheet that spit out data. I forecast price action using statistics. Anyhow this Monday morning boop may have been high of week.

I was out in the fields all day, with a crew mind you, toiling.  Been up since 4am speculating and then toiling. Okay for now.

Raul Santos, October 11th 2021

Comments »

Happy Indigenous Peoples day // super bearish report coming your way

Greetings lads,

We’ve finally rid this country of the wretched celebration of Christopher Colombo, that no good colonialist murderer. Thanks to our dear President Jimmy ‘Executive Order’ Biden we will now celebrate Indigenous Peoples day and I am here for it.

Italian Americans, especially on the east coast, hold Columbus as some sacred forefather, for whatever reason. I suppose there aren’t many good Italians to look up to historically, so they attach their pride to some jackass who got lost on his way to India and by a sick twist of fate found the most sacred lands in the world.

Me, I have an Italian immigrant to look up to whose accomplishments are far superior. Elder Raul. A swarthy little guy. Sent away from the old country along with his brother. They were causing more trouble than their small mountain village could handle. Death threats were being made. My grandpa had six children. Three before the Great War, and three after. He was a prisoner of war in Africa for seven years and some speculate there may also have been an African Raul created during that time.

Elder and Uncle Raul were born after the war and began to cause more mischief than dear old grand papa could tolerate. Uncle Raul was a heavy smoker, drinker and gambler by the age of eight. A real unruly lad. Sharp with numbers and not afraid to stab a paisano, regardless of their connections to the cosa nostra. It was too much to bear.

So with the suits on their backs Uncle Raul and Elder Raul were sent to America. To Detroit. To live with their older sister and find their place in the New World.

Uncle Raul continued his rambunctious ways and cut a path that I forge onward today. Many the resources he accumulated along the way have been endowed to me and it is my duty to keep bringing the wrath of the old country to these soft-handed americans.

Elder Raul took a more conventional path. His first order of business was finding the biggest, blondest american woman and starting a family. By the age of 32 he had his third child, your dear and humble blogger RAUL [DaHR]. And as of last Saturday he has kept this family together for 45 years.

I find Christopher Columbus to be a real shit head. First of all what kind of an Italian name is that? It’s not. It’s a christian name and a weak one at that. Second, not a good human. Finally, I find indigenous people more relatable, so if battle lines are drawn I would wholeheartedly side with the brown people of america.

Any who.

I cannot continue to ignore the signals coming from IndexModel. It is bearish again heading into next week. This is an option expiration week, so the selling may not trigger a full-on liquidation but my guard will be up nonetheless.

I am coming into the week very long. By Tuesday afternoon my goal is to lighten my bag a bit and carry some disgusting fiat american cash into month-end.

So it is written. So it shall be.

Raul Santos, October 10th 2021

And now the 359th edition of Strategy Session. Enjoy


Stocklabs Strategy Session: 10/11/21 – 10/15/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.30, medium bull*. Bounce/rally through Tuesday afternoon. Then equity markets pivot and turn lower. Watch for FOMC minutes and Treasury statement Wednesday afternoon to introduce selling pressure into the market. Then Thursday morning earnings from major banks and Taiwan Semiconductors to accelerate prices to the downside.

*Rose Colored Sunglasses bearish bias triggered, see Section V.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Heavy selling Monday morning but no follow through. Then a reversal Tuesday. Bulls reversed a gap down Wednesday setting up an all-day rally. Follow through strength into Thursday morning. Then a steady rotation lower into the weekend.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Tech lagging. So is Discretionary. Meanwhile Utilities and Staples strong

slightly bearish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Six weeks back we had a major bullish skew and that really hasn’t been negated yet. Last week’s ledger is faily balanced, though the industries on the positive side of the ledger are not the type bulls prefer to see leading the market.

neutral

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

bullish cycles ending, Indexmodel bearish again

Stocklabs 6-month overbought cycle ended last Thursday. The 12-month oversold cycle ends this upcoming Tuesday. As of now, after that bullish cycle ends, all we will have to work with is the RCS bearish signal from IndexModel.

This systematic framework is how the Executive Summary at the top of this report was formulated.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for buyers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Bounce/rally through Tuesday afternoon. Then equity markets pivot and turn lower. Watch for FOMC minutes and Treasury statement Wednesday afternoon to introduce selling pressure into the market. Then Thursday morning earnings from major banks and Taiwan Semiconductors to accelerate prices to the downside.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Contextual indices both neutral

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports have a well-established range and until this breaks we are neutral.

See below:

Semiconductors sort of broke a rising wedge we’ve been watching to the downside. But for now they appear to be in balance. Watch how this index behaves Thursday after the TSM earnings. That could be the proverbial ‘tell’ for the direction of price heading into month-end.

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is back to Rose Colored Sunglasses [RCS] bearish after being neutral on the prior report after signaling Rose Colored Sunglasses [RCS] bearish two weeks ago. It was neutral the prior two weeks after being Rose Colored Sunglasses [RCS] bearish five weeks back after being neutral six reports back and Rose Colored Sunglasses bearish for the two consecutive weeks prior to that.

We had a Bunker Buster thirty two weeks ago.

Indexmodel keeps flipping between neutral and bearish. We haven’t seen a cluster like this since February-through-May when similar signals were coming through.

Here is the current spread:

VI. Six Month Hybrid Overbought

On Thursday, September 23rd  Stocklabs went overbought on the 6-month algorithm. This is a bullish cycle that runs until Thursday, October 7th end-of-day. Here is the performance of each major index so far:

VII. Twelve Month Hybrid Oversold

On Tuesday, September 28th Stocklabs went hybrid oversold on the 12-month algorithm. This is a bullish cycle that runs through Tuesday, October 12th end-of-day. Here is the performance of each major index so far:

VIII. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“I believe the very best money is made at market turns.” – Paul Tudor Jones

Trade simple, stick to the plan

Comments »

Just trading the signals

Good morning gang. Your local metaverse junkie here. I done speculated the NFP report well so I am taking the rest of the day off from trading.

We lost some good lads these last few weeks. Trading has its streaks. I swear to you. There are other trades where this happens. If you speak to most small business owners they’ll tell you the same thing.

Trading is a business. So is selling strawberries. Or software or jpegs or cars. Sales is good honest work btw and the bots are going to have a hard time replacing sales people.

Let’s be clear on one things — I receive zero fiat compensation from iBankCoin/Stocklabs. Dear Fly has offered me funds in the past I always say, “Keep it. Invest it into making Exodus/Stocklabs better.”

Because I make my money in the markets.

And a big part of my edge is being an above average executor of systematic signals and Dear Fly has built one heck of a time machine.

We lost some good lads these last few weeks.

I saw an interesting tweet a few weeks ago that said technical analysis is astrology for men. That’s interesting to me because a trading system based on celestial cycles can be just as profitable as one based off of price charts and I don’t think the author of that tweet knows this.

The challenge is consistently executing a strategy. We lost some good lads these last few weeks.

Listen, I am not going to stand here on my humble soap box and say I enjoyed September. I didn’t. I could have done better and I didn’t and I will have to go back through my notes and think about what obstructed my performance.

My job is not to trade from the gut. My trades are based on statistics that are indifferent to me. The market does not try to kill me. Markets only exist to facilitate the maximum amount of trade. That’s it.

The numbers on the screen are a human attempt to organize the interaction of millions of humans. In essence, markets are the collective conscience of humanity.

Which is why this 2021 drift deeper into the metaverse has been so fluid for me.

You see lads, I’ve been alone for nearly 10 years now, eating what I kill. Starving when I fail. These days I grow much more food. Because for real there were periods during this trading journey where I for real wasn’t sure if I was “gonna make it.”

It is feast and famine at the house of Raul. I’ve hit some grand slams these last few years and that has taken my back off the wall a bit. But that time. When I wasn’t sure and had to scrape by broke. That changed me.

Maybe for the worse.

There is an alternate Raul who kept his 75k/annum salary back in 2011 and just kept spening 32 hours a week in a cube, denying meeting requests, building giant corporate spreadsheets and eating Five Guys hammed burgers. He’s probably very fat and wealthy.

Instead I am a wiry fucker. Shitposting on the internet whilst dancing in a minefield of thieves, institutional militias and profiteers. Foraging nuts and berries off the floor, building a utilitarian compound in Detroit.

All I hope to demonstrate here through, in the hallowed halls of iBankCoin, is the ability to execute simple signals consistently.

I keep most of the other wild speculations on Twitter. A stock, mind you, that is overdue for a one hundred dollar roll.

And that’s all I have to say for now. I’ll be back Sunday with updated research.

Raul Santos, October 8th 2021

Comments »

NASDAQ extends bounce overnight // here is Thursday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday pro gap up, up beyond the prior six days’ ranges after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price steadily campaigned higher overnight, pressing up beyond the Wednesday high early into Globex and continuing to advance, balance, then continue throughout the night. At 8:30am jobless claims data came out slightly better than expected, but it seems investors are more keen on tomorrow morning’s employment data. No reaction to this morning’s data. As we approach cash open price is hovering in the upper quadrant of last Tuesday’s liquidation session.

Also on the economic calendar today we have 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a gap down in range. There was a drive higher at the open. it stalled right along the Tuesday midpoint, before filling the overnight gap and sellers made a sharp move lower, effectively taking out Tuesday low and closing the Monday gap in one fell swoop. Here we formed a sharp excess low, and did so before the first hour of trade was complete. This would be low-of-day. Buyers pressed to an early range extension up, closing the overnight gap. Very methodical. Then we checked back to the midpoint. Methodical. Buyers held the mid for several hours before an afternoon rally saw price work up near the Tuesday high. We balanced along the high for a bit before ultimately taking out the high during settlement.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a gap-and-go higher, buyers squeeze up to 15,006.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 half gap fill. Sellers work into overnight inventory and close a half gap down to 14,870 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers work a full gap fill down to 14,759.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ traders *edit:undo* Tuesday’s gains overnight // here is Wednesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap down about -150 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price fell down through the Tuesday midpoint around 9:30pm and then consolidated until about 3am. The 3am hour has been dominated by sellers the last month-or-so. Around 3am sellers pressed down through the Tuesday low and down into the lower quadrant of Monday’s range. Then around 6am New York bidders stabilized the selling. Then around 7am the auction reversed higher. At 8:15am adp employment forecast came out well above expectations, and as we approach cash open price is hovering back inside the lower quadrant of Tuesday’s range.

Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a  slight gap up in range. Buyers drove higher shortly after an open test. Sellers made an attempt shortly after to gap fill but failed and then a steady buying/accumulation campaign took hold. Said buying continued until about 11:30am. Then after several hours of balance/consolidation buyers made another push higher but stalled around 3:30pm before closing the weekend gap. Instead we saw quick selling into the close. We ended the session above the mid.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 14,660. From here buyers continue higher, trading up through overnight high 14,674.75. Look for sellers up at 14,700 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers reject out of Tuesday low 14,497.50 early on setting up a move down through overnight low 14,422.50. Look for buyers down at 14,388.25 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 full-on liquidation lower. Sellers take out Monday low 14,367.75 early on setting up a gap fill down to 14,324. Stretch targets 14,300 and then 14,272.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »