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Raul3

I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations

No trading report // headed to CVS for my second vaccine

There is not much for me to do with the NASDAQ up at these levels, and I have several matters to attend to today not the least of which is having the second Moderna inoculation, therefore I shall not be trading or posting a trading report today.

The reason I have opted into the vaccine program is simple—I seek out and engage any opportunity to signal my virtue over the smooth-brained conservatards who suck down beef and chicken meats like homicidal maniacs while typing away their fat-headed nonsense with greasy fingers all the while whilst their tiny cocks whither away from neglect.

I intend to have my vaccine card lamented and will brandish it to every single clerk, doorman, barkeep or other service professional to let them know I am a fucking care bear and did my part.

Whether or not anyone else takes the vax, I couldn’t care less. My life is one of privilege, surrounded by high class people who are never rude to those in poverty. My virtue is my light. I only see unwashed macho shit heads at the hardware stores and when driving between safe spaces.

Drugs are a big part of my life. I love to experiment. Having my RNA modified is the most exciting test since taking a heroic dose of LSD at a masquerade.

Mushrooms will show you what you need to see. If you have demons in your psyche, fucked up things you’ve done to nature, well, you gone see them. If you’ve been frolicking around the secret enchanted broccoli forests, healing birds and shit, well, the mushrooms are going to open your eyes to the entire universe because they dig the vibe.

I try so fucking god damned hard not to stoop to the level of these paranoid hicks flying ten Trump flags on their 10-acer lawns.

I do better in the city. Isolation of the “Police Lives Matter” crowd into bum fuck rural towns is a punishment well suited for these wannabe Vic Mackey rejects. They had a social group for a few years, a leader of sorts, a 70-something fat man full of hamburgers and hate. Then democracy did its thing and now they’re back to their bleak isolated existences, wickies in a broken lighthouse, desperately seeking ways to rekindle their Handmaid’s Tale fantasy.

Well fuck you. It is never going to happen.

Weed—federally legal. Universal basic income—inevitable. Jobs in accounting, transportation, and more—automated away. Graduates of higher learning institutions—debt erased.

Wake up or be relegated to the boon sticks by the woke.

Now I am off for my apex predator breakfast—COFFEE.

Lunch—Soylent.

Dinner—Moderna#2 with a side salad.

Raul Santos, April 14th 2021

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Gunning for all-time high, here is Tuesday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up beyond yesterday and last week’s highs after an overnight ession featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight until about 8:30am New York. Whether or not CPI data came out at the top-end of expectations at that time led to the rally that followed is debatable. But since then we’ve rallied nearly to all-time highs.

Also on the economic calendar today we have a 30-year bond auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up. The session began with a gap down in range. Buyers poked higher during opening swing and filled the overnight gap before sellers stepped in. Said sellers eventually pushed us into an early range extension down which was met with strong responsive buying. Price then chopped along the top of the day’s midpoint for a few hours before rallying into a neutral print. Price checked back to the mid once more, than ramped into the close to end near the highs.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a probe up beyond all-time high 13,863.75 and a tag of 13,900 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers rally to 14,000 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press into overnight inventory and reclaim Monday high 13,828.75 and sustain trade below it, setting up a move down through overnight low 13,772.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Small gap down in range to start the week ;-) here is Monday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the second full week of April with a small gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on normal range. Price was balanced overnight, balancing along the upper quadrant of Friday’s range. As we approach cash open, price hovers in this upper quad.

On the economic calendar today we have 6-mont t-bills and 3-year notes up for auction at 11:30am, 3-month t-bills and 10-year notes auctioning at 1pm and a Treasury statement at 2pm.

Last week featured a strong rally Monday. Then a consolidation of the gains through Wednesday. A gap higher Thursday and continuation rally through Friday and into the weekend. Russell 2000 lagged. Here is the last week performance of each major index:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a gap down in range. Sellers made an early attempt lower, probing below the Thursday range briefly before a sharp,excess low formed. Price shot back through the mid, checked back to it, then rallied to close the overnight gap and make a new high on the week. Price flagged along the high for several hours before ramping higher into the weekend.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 13,809.50. From there buyers continue higher, up to probe beyond all-time high 13,878.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 13,767.75 and tag 13,753 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down to 13,700 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

 

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Still bullish

G’dday lads. Not much on my mind so I shall keep this brief.

You have, all of you have, perhaps 70 productive years on this rare planet we call earth. Consider what you leave in your wake.

Not so much as legacy, but in the words of Franklin D. Roosevelt, “The nation that destroys its soil destroys itself.” What are you leaving behind besides poop? What are your other waste streams? What will you leave behind.

On that note, I must be off. I have undertaken a large soil remediation project and with the power of my brain I intend to right what my predessors have wronged, or at least prove the gen-pop wrong in a strange new way.

This is what I do. I challenge conventional wisdom. I make people money. And I fuck.

Models have a slight bullish tilt heading into next week.

Raul Santos, April 11th, 2021

And now the 333rd edition of Strategy Session:

Stocklabs Strategy Session: 04/12/21 – 04/16/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.60, medium bull*. Sideways drift, with any big moves in either direction being faded back to unchanged by week’s end.

Major bank earnings due out Wednesday and Thursday before market open may have an impact on overall price action.

*IndexModel flagged extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses bullish bias, see Sections III and IV.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Strong rally Monday. Consolidation of the gains through Wendesday. Gap higher Thursday and continuation rally through Friday and into the weekend. Russell 2000 lagged.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Another week of out performance from key Tech and Discretionary sectors. Everything else besides Energy flanking alongside with small gains.

bullish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Five weeks back we had major buy flows. It wasn’t until two weeks back that we saw follow through on them. But now we have. The last two big money flow pushes have been to the buy side.

Last week was totally balanced. Neutral.

Median return last week a bit less than +50 basis points  and volume delta over the last 30 days is quite negative.

No word yet on having 1-week volume delta added to the screener.

Money flows are neutral.

Here are this week’s results:

III. STOCKLABS ACADEMY

Extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses

This signal comes from the market model I built and managed which is called IndexModel. It is based on auction theory.

When it goes extreme rose colored sunglasses we historically have seen calm action which is usually better suited for stock picking then it is for futures trading.

That said, when the signal is live I will definitely be trading any gap down in range for the fill and then be playing to take out either (or both) overnight high and range extension up.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Sideways drift, with any big moves in either direction being faded back to unchanged by week’s end.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Semiconductors flag along the highs, more discovery?

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports continue to steadily discovering new higher prices.

See below:

Semiconductors performed a mini discovery phase up out of recent balance and are now flagging along the highs. Heading into next week this is anything but bearish.

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is flagging extreme rose colored sunglasses after being neutral last week and having  flagged extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses two weeks back after being neutral three weeks before that after signaling Bunker Buster six weeks ago after being neutral for the thirteen weeks prior to that.

Extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses calls for a calm sideways drift, perhaps with a slight upward bias.

Here is the current spread:

VI. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“it is unwise to be too sure of one’s own wisdom.” Mahatma Gandhi

Trade simple, stay curious

 

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Stocklabs wins again

Readers of the Strategy Session know I’ve taken a keen interest in the 6-month technical oversold signal generated by Stocklabs. That’s because on a 10-year back test of 47 instances it has a win rate of nearly 64% over 10 days. The most signal occurred on March 24th and did a solid job of nailing a rally. Behold:

Seeing The Fly’s Time Machine consistently forecast market action all these years has kept me loyal to the iBankCoin banner. It is my duty to be accountable to the team behind the scenes here and also to anyone who wants to take ownership of their investment fate using these tools.

Anyhow, I am out of rythem with the markets after sitting out the last couple opening bells. Therefore, and without regret, I shall take today off as well. No sense sullying my weekend mind by forcing some trades into the /nq.

Have a strong cocked weekend, and I shall be back Sunday,

Raul Santos, April 9th 2021

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Do nothing conditions

One impulse commonly exhibited by the ego of a trader is to short a move like we’ve seen this week — usually this low-value instinct kicks in after missing the primary move.

Makes the trader feel smart again. Yeah. Bet against the primary move and fade the herd yeah.

No thanks.

First of all the humble Raul blog (hRb) has been advocating for heavy investments in Big Tech all along. Secondly, the last four weeks of Strategy Sessions have leaned bullish. Thirdly we had a bunker buster back a the end of February and that’s when I deployed lots of fresh capital into the markets. Now my job is to get fat off the land. The seeds were planted, they grew, now I just gotta feed them occasionally and give lots of water and wait for them to ripen at the end of the year. Then harvest.

I didn’t buy any Tesla in the first quarter and I may not buy any in the second quarter either. It is still my largest position by quite a lot, but an astute reader may have picked up my subtle drift towards advocating other Big Tech tickers. There’s a reason for that. Tesla printed a failed auction right at a big fat round number many moons ago. Those can take months, quarters, to resolve.

My optimistic outlook for daddy Elon’s Tesla has not changed, but being a modern chartist (no head and shoulders plebbery) I must acknowledge when it is best to back off a thesis and let it simmer while pressing other campaigns. Campaigns like Noble Jacked Dorsey’s Twitter. I am more bullish on Twitter than ever. They banned the people who were ruining the platform. Jack’s humility is contagious. And there are rumors that they’re on the hunt to buy other agencies like gay boy Clubhouse. All of this is bullish.

I am also super bullish on the FTT brokerage tokens. That feller in charge at FTT is some kind of idiot savant, sleeping on beaned bags and making billions, developing synthetic equities. Did you know coinbase stock is already trading on FTT? Think about that, while you’re left trading fucking NIO and PLUG and other shit stocks. FTT has found a way to make Coinbase shares already tradable. Also, U.S. residents aren’t even allowed to own FTT tokens. That barrier to entry also present a unique opportunity.

So I am busy elsewhere, in stuff like that and building pineapple fountains, all while I wait for the damn counter contractor to show up so I can finish the heckin’ kitchen.

I’ve planted beets, carrots, mustard spinach and started asparagus.

That’s about it. In essence. Now is the time do to nothing.

Ho ho ho,

Raul Santos, April 8th 2021

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Early bird already got the worm // no NASDAQ Tuesday trading plan

There isn’t much opportunity for me here left today. Around 7am NEW YORK the buyers stepped in and did the only thing I would’a done which’is’to work price back up through yesterday’s trend day high.

That’s a high probability set-up.

I deal in high probability set-ups and hustling opening bell.

I work too hardt.

On a day like this, when the weather folks are saying its gonna be about 80, and the NASDAQ has a tiny risk/reward, my job is to go work the land.

The stock market (and cryptos) have an ‘all clear’ to rally through the rest of the year. You’ll have some ‘sell in May’ types trying to stoke up some fear here soon. Ignore them. Just hunker into the best tickers and cruise into year-end. Once Elon’s Tesla starts printing CyberTrucks we’ll be looking for a broad, multi-year correction in big tech equity and crypto as humans start to shift their positioning into real things.

So it is written. So it shall be. I expand on this line of thinking at the bottom of last Sunday’s blog.

Trade’em well today lads. I am off to survey my next hole dig.

Raul Santos, April 6th 2021

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NASDAQ hops higher into Q2 // Here is Monday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the first full week of the second quarter pro gap up after an overnight session featuring normal volume on elevated range. Price was balanced overnight, first testing last Thursday’s high then rallying away from it. As we approach cash open price is hovering up at levels unseen since February 22nd.

On the economic calendar today we have factory orders and ISM services index at 10am followed by 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week was choppy through Tuesday then price rallied through to end of Thursday. Closed Friday.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Thursday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up. The day began with a gap up beyond range. Buyers drove higher off the open and managed to print a range extension up early on. Then price chopped along the mid for pretty much the rest of the session before ramping back up to the highs near the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, driving up to 13,500 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 13,325.75, take out overnight low 13,304.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers trade up to 13,550 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Rumors of Strategy Session ending have been wildly exaggerated and my worthless year-end prediction

For three hundred and thirty two weeks I’ve sat down and done one-to-four hours of stock market research, augmented by Exodus and Multicharts and MICROSOFT EXCEL. I will not stop doing this work because it is what got me to where I am today — a consistently profitable trader who can safely trade alongside institutions. Institutions, mind you, who command exponentially more resources then your sweet Uncle Baby Raul.

The report is simply being transitioned out from behind the Exodus paywall to here, on the public blog, free for consumption.

I’ve never been a fan of hoarding information.

When I started this odd adventure as an anonymous internet trader some ten years ago it was because the institutions of higher learning had failed me. Turns out a degree in finance doesn’t get you any further along the path to being a consistently profitable trader.

I went online to learn more.

I assumed an alias because I was earning a meaningful salary from Corporate America (Sonny says the working mans a sucker and I agree) and didn’t want them to see me out here, riding-round-gettin-it, while also drawing a salary.

Paywalls always bothered me. I paid thousands in the quest to learn more. Dealt with so many charlatans and a few all around decent traders.

Oh boy I am rambling. In short — I never did this for any of you. It was for me and it continues to be for me. I’ve managed to meet some great people along the way, and I like to think I’ve helped a few others experience that glorious “a-ha” moment in their own trading.

And that’s good enough for me.

I’m doing real fine. Weekend research shall continue. Peep the bottom of this blog for this week’s entry.

One thing I hope to make abundantly clear is that before I take my style of trades, many of which last less than ten minutes, I have put several hours of work in beforehand. I am like crocodile. Sitting in the mud thinking about making to kill but doing nothing, then all at once attacking with the rip force of ten women.

Enough of that. Here is my prediction for the rest of this year. I will start to amplify this prediction as the weeks and months go by because it came to me while I was gardening and it was the first good thought I’ve had in months and I expect it was sent from the old gods and I want to share it with you:

Big Tech and crypto currencies, all of them and their NFTs, can rally until Elon’s Tesla starts printing Cybertrucks. The moment Cybertrucks start rolling out of those tents in the desert and being delivered, will likely market (not the end) but the beginning of a solid pause in non-tangible asset appreciation. The Cybertruck really is a perfect mechanic representation of who these people are. Technocrats KIND OF. Big Tech/crypto investors are like everything that was promised in 1990 as being futuristic, plus Saved By The Bell, with a dash of Reddit, made into a human. And that is what the CyberTruck is, a car in meme form. We are going to see these investors shift their resources away from the fucking fairy dust that is crypto and BIG TECH and it will start with buying a Cybertruck. And then that purchase is going to change their life. They’re going to start seeing everything differently. More like how I already see things. And realize that money is better invested in real things — cement and energy generation and steel and irrigation. And as their/our wealth shifts to real things, crypto and Big Tech prices will stagnate.

So it is written. So it shall be.

Now whether or not this plays out I can assure you of two things — my predictions don’t matter to you. They matter to me because everything is a game in my jalopy of a brain and having good explanations is how I can have faith in my long-term moves.  Faith in the trajectory of my brief mortal life. Second — even if my prediction plays out, to the tee, and I milk Big Tech and Crypto for the next nine months then sell a bit, live, under the premise of this prediction, I still won’t be popular on Finance Twitter.

Selah.

Alright enough of that also. Cheers to a fruitful second quarter.

Raul Santos, April 5th 2021

And now the Strategy Session. Enjoy:


Stocklabs Strategy Session: 04/05/21 – 04/09/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.53, medium bull. Rally into Wednesday afternoon. Then look for third reaction to the FOMC minutes to provide direction into the second half of the week.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Choppy through Tuesday then a rally through to end of Thursday. Closed Friday.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Rotation into key drivers, Tech and Discretionary. Everything else sort of mixed.

slightly bullish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Four weeks back we had major buy flows. It wasn’t really until last week that we saw follow through on them. But now we have. The last two big money flow pushes have been to the buy side.

Median return last week was nearly +2.5%  and volume delta over the last 30 days is negative.

What we need. And I will discuss this with The Fly, is a 1-week volume delta. That would help us make actionable use of the volume delta data Stocklabs has.

Money flows are bullish.

Here are this week’s results:

III. STOCKLABS ACADEMY

Looking back at the confluence of bullish signals last week

On Thursday, March 18 Stocklabs flagged oversold on the 3-month technical and hybrid signals. You may notice I never include any 3-month signals in the Weekly Strategy Session, but lately I’ve been giving it more consideration. That signal cycle ended at the end of Thursday. Here is the final performance of each major index during the cycle:

The 3-month technical oversold is worth tracking. It has a decent probability of success into the second half of the cycle.

We also had a 6-month Tech oversold cycle trigger March 24th. The tech signal has better stats on this timeframe than the hybrid. Here are the performance stats of each index so far for this cycle:

Finally, last week we had Indexmodel going extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses bullish bias. A third bullish signal.

When the proverbial deck stacks up like this, that is the time to press our convictions.

That said. We have only the tail end of the 6-month oversold signal and nothing else heading into next week. Maybe we are not pressing our trades as hard. Quicker scalps.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Rally into Wednesday afternoon. Then look for third reaction to the FOMC minutes to provide direction into the second half of the week.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Semiconductors pop out of range, testing sellers

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports continue to steadily discovering new higher prices.

See below:

Semiconductors, if you recall, had that obvious-looking head-and-shoulders pattern in place for a few weeks. We mostly ignored it, but noted its existence, because often times those overly apparent chart patterns don’t work out for the arm-chair analysts.

Instead we focus where we always focus—is it balance or discovery? The last trading session of last week makes it look like we’re abandoning the range we established in a campaign to start a fresh leg of discovery up. However, I am not so sure. The range below is likely to exert some magnetic force, at least it has the potential, heading into next week.

My call is that we are still in a range-bound market on the semiconductors but I am not certain.

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is neutral after flagging extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses last week after being neutral hree weeks before that after signaling Bunker Buster five weeks ago after being neutral for the thirteen weeks prior to that.

No bias heading into next week.

Here is the current spread:

VI. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“Don’t be a hero. Don’t have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability. Don’t ever feel that you are very good. The second you do, you are dead.” Paul Tudor Jones

Trade simple, accept your weaknesses

 

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Testing above the Fed trap // here is Thursday trading plan

NASDSAQ futures are coming into the final trading day of the week, the first trading day of Q2 (sloppy alignment) up a quick +140 after an overnight session featuring extreme range on elevated volume. Price steadily rallied overnight, unidrectionally rotating up through the Wednesday high and up beyond the gap left behind back on Wednesday March 17th. At 8:30am jobless claims data came out worse than expected. As we approach cash open price is hovering up near those 03/17 highs.

Also on the economic calendar today we have ISM manufacturing and construction spending at 10am followed by 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a gap up beyond the Tuesday high, up near the Monday high. Buyers drove into the open, rapidly sending price up to the 13,100 century mark before a brief pause. Then price continued a bit higher but near took out last week’s high. Instead we spent the rest of the session chopping along the upper quadrant of the daily range.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap and go a touch higher, tagging 13,255 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers tag 13,300 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 13,085.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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