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Raul3

I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations

Way too happy to trade

I dunno. I might not trade for the next few weeks.

First of all winter is finally here. It took long enough. Second I am due to travel over to Lake Tahoe on Wednesday and there just so happens to be some big snow hitting the mountain/lake region.

You must realize, there has been very little snow in the Sierras this year and yet, just maybe, we’ve timed our trip perfectly to have some powder days. I am elated.

I’ll also be meeting my new young nephew, son of our China correspondent, ROBERTO BREGANTE, whilst west…and the prospects of all these events has me in far to good of a mood to potentially sully it trading futures.

You see lads, there are events and people who mean far more to me than economic gain. Two of those things are family and powder days. Put them in the same place and well…good luck putting me to work.

I think finding a passion for something real and tangible can go great lengths in making you a better investors and trader. Gives you perspective and clarity on why you do all these silly things you do to extract fiat american dollars.

The pageantry around transitioning power away from the mean old man to the friendly old man doesn’t even move my meter. However, the women around me seem to be in better spirits and that’s always nice.  Maybe soon they will be up for something daring—like a long night in a cold warehouse drinking hooch while it snows and big speakers wale out metronomic beats for hours on end.

We don’t know.

For now I am content that snow is coming and I am due to ride it with the people who mean the world to me.

Ciao for now.

Raul Santos, January 22nd, 2021

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Pro gap up // not trading it // why do we work?

Greetings lads. By the looks of it, the NASDAQ is set to open above the prior record high after a barn burner of a globex session. Wall Street seems to be pricing in progress, at least in the pre-market, and with prices at these levels there is not much I feel confident doing at the open.

The higher time frame is likely to be active on the open, either covering shorts, adding to longs, or selling to raise cash. That activity could be erratic at times, and without trading levels to work with up here, I have no way of formulating a trading edge.

Which means I’m not going to trade. There seems to be growing interest lately around why people work. This is good. Having honest conversations about why we work is important to advancing as a species. Why do you work? And this isn’t a question about getting money. Forget that. We are talking about America. Why do you work in America?

You don’t have to. The votes have spoken. We are moving in the direction of universal basic income. That means, in our first world, basic human rights will included food, shelter, education and medical care. None of these things need to be worked for. They will be accessible to all.

Working, commuting, all that stuff, can be very detrimental to one’s health. Many jobs, even ones that currently require college degrees, will be eliminated by automation. If you didn’t have to work, what would you do? Why would you do those things?

These are the types of questions all of us should be meditating on.

Progress has won. The past is the past. Nationalism is dead. We are all earthlings and we’re all going to die. What we choose to do with our brief mortal existence is important. Will it be work? To what end?

Me, I don’t work. I do toil endlessly to grow food that actually has minerals in it. Why? It helps keep my family healthy and might extend our mortal existences by a few years. Also I like how outside work makes me feel—strong and tan.

Why be strong and tan and live longer? Because that means more time to be a ski bum.

Why be a ski bum? Because it makes me feel really, really good when I push my physical limits.

Yes, I am a hedonist.

I also enjoy trading opening bell. Competing in one of the biggest arenas of speculative finance and being good at it bring me joy.

I am a hedonist.

Why do I type these blogs and do all the research stuff? Accountability to my homework makes me a better opening bell trader and I like out competing other agencies and people who possess far more resources than me.

Why?

Because fuck them. Who knows whether they achieved the higher ground through honest or deplorable means, but the laws of large numbers dictate that all things eventually return to the mean. That means the underdogs have potential to rocket higher, overshooting the mean for a bit before reaching some kind of zero gravity, then eventually too reverting to the mean. All while the institutions nervously do their best to sustain flight above the mean. These laws of nature bring me joy.

I am a hedonist.

Anyhow, I am not too proud to know when I have no edge. Today I have no edge. Therefore I will go read books, exercise, peruse the latest seed catalogs, then lean into a nice nap.

Adios.

Raul Santos, January 20th, 2021

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Nothings happened yet // NASDAQ up a quick +100 // here is Tuesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the holiday shortened week gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price action during the globex session has not accomplished much despite price being +100 from the Friday close. Sunday evening sellers pushed us a few points below the Friday low before the rest of the session was spent rotating higher. Around 10:30pm New York the Friday high was taken out. As we approach cash open price is hovering in the upper quadrant of last Friday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week began with a small gap down that buyers were unable to reclaim all week on the NASDAQ and S&P. Sellers were seen active Thursday afternoon and into Friday. But the Dow and Russell were bullish divergent all week. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation down. The day began with a slight gap down. Buyers were able to resolve the overnight gap during an open two way auction but after briefly spiking about +30 beyond the gap fill heavy sellers stepped in and made a new low on the week. A second low was made before lunch but was met by strong responsive buyers who sent price up through the daily midpoint. After chopping along the topside of the mid fro several hours sellers assumed control of the tape again and we ended the day with sellers campaigning price lower but before a new low could be made market closed for the weekend.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to sustain trade above 12,900 setting up a run to 12,964.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up through 13,000 and sustain trade above it, setting up a move to tag 13,082.

Hypo 3 sellers press down to 12,812. After a bit of a battle they continue to campaign lower, closing the Friday gap down at 12,772.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Mostly neutral

Greetings lads. I have been summoned to a plumbing dilemma over at Elder Raul’s mothership. I went there, shut down the water, then sent Elder Raul to home depot to pick up the part we need for the fix. That gave me enough time to finish the Sunday research.

Most every indicator is neutral except for the Stocklabs hybrid oversold signal. That runs through Thursday. We have earnings from Intel Thursday after the bell.

Monday we’re closed in observation of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. day.

Basically I have little conviction heading into the holiday shortened week.

Last week I could just sit down and if I liked the way the chart looked instantly put three units on in the NASDAQ futures and start working the long while I wrote my report and be done by about 9:45am.

This week is not like last week. I have no clear conviction. That said. If we have open gaps in range, I’ll likely be here working them.

Be sure to tune into the morning reports.

Raul Santos, January 17th 2021

And now the 321st edition of strategy session. Enjoy.


Stocklabs Strategy Session: 01/18/21 – 01/22/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.03, neutral. Markets continue to hold up near the highs. Watch Intel earnings due out Thursday after market close. Earnings from this major chip maker could sway the entire NASDAQ 100.

**U.S. Markets will be closed Monday, January 18th in observation of Dr. Martin Luther King Junior day.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Small gap down into the week that buyers were unable to reclaim on the NASDAQ and S&P. Active sellers Thursday afternoon and into Friday. The Dow and Russell were bullish divergent all week.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Tech lagged for a second week, flanked by the key discretionary sector. Energy continues to trade independent of the market. Utilities up butt Staples down.

neutral

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Industry flows balanced out last week after skewing bullish two weeks prior. Most industry groups on the list are lower quality. Not much insight to gain from money flows.

neutral

Here are this week’s results:

III. STOCKLABS ACADEMY

What is Delta Airlines doing?

Delta earnings painted a bleak picture for the airline as folks continue to stay home. One of the interesting developments to their fundamentals is the massive increase to their cash holdings. This can be seen on the Financials page. They went from having $2.65b in cash this time last year to nearly $25b today. Likely government relief cash.  What are they going to do with all that cash?

Meanwhile the NASDAQ transportation index is hovering around all-time highs. All of this situation deserves a bit of our continued focus.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for buyers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Markets continue to hold up near the highs. Watch Intel earnings due out Thursday after market close. Earnings from this major chip maker could sway the entire NASDAQ 100.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Semiconductors, Transports both discovery up

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports are holding their highs after the Delta earnings and the current picture shows no indication that the uptrend is due to stop.

bullish

See below:

Semiconductors have a clear discovery up in place also.

bullish

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is neutral for a eighth consecutive week. No bias.

VI. Stocklabs Hybrid Overbought.

On Thursday, January 7th Stocklabs flagged hybrid overbought on the 12-month algo. This is a bullish cycle that runs through Thursday, January 21st end-of-day. Here is the performance of each major index so far:

VII. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“To the mind that is still, the whole universe surrenders.” – Lao Tzu

Trade simple, seek clarity over gains

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Market flat, indicators rise, here is Thursday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday flat after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing above the Wednesday midpoint after briefly exceeding the Wednesday high early in the Globex session. At 8:30am jobless claims data came out worse than expected and as we approach cash open price is hovering in the upper quadrant of Wednesday’s range.

Also on the economic calendar today we have 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am followed by Powell speak at 12:30pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up. The day began flat-ish and after an open-two way auction buyer stepped in and drove price up through the Tuesday high. The rest of the session was spend consolidating along the day’s high, with price chopping a tight range in the upper quad of the day’s range,making a little bit higher of a high in the afternoon and closing in the upper quad.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 13,015 setting up a run to 13,082.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 12,922.50 setting up a tag of 12,900.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down to 12,800 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Gap down in range ;-) here is Wednesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range on elevated volume. Price was balanced overnight. First it poked higher, then lower, but ultimately trade was confined within the Tuesday range. At 8:30am CPI data came out in-line with expectations and as we approach cash open price is hovering a bit above the Tuesday midpoint.

Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am, a 30-year bond auction at 1pm and beige book/treasury statement at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began with a slight gap down that buyers quickly resolved during an open two-way auction. Buyers would soon mark the high of the session, just a few ticks beyond the Monday mid. Then for several hours we chopped sideways before seeing sellers become initiative into New York lunch. These sellers worked price down into last Thursday’s conviction buying zone before discovering a strong responsive bid. These buyers assumed control of the tap and steadily campaigned price up through the daily mid. Then they defended the mid once late in the session before ending the day a bit above it.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 12,885.75. From here buyers continue higher, up through overnight high 12,935. Look for sellers up at 12,950 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers rally to 13,000 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 12,820 and test 12,800. If sellers overwhelm the bid at 12,800 we could sell a fast liquidation down to 12,700.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Off the highs, here is Tuesday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing in the lower half of Monday’s range. As we approach cash open, price is hovering near the Monday low.

On the economic calendar today we have JOLTS jobs openings at 10am followed by a 10-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down. The day began with a gap down in range. Sellers drove down into the opening print, taking out the Friday low and nearly tagging the naked VPOC from Thursday before catching a strong responsive bid about 15-minutes into the session. Buyers then campaigned higher, making an early range extension up before price fell back to the midpoint. Buyers defended the first test of the mid and made a new high on the day but buyers could not close the overnight gap. Instead the auction stalled and reversed before it could tag the Friday VPOC. The second check back to the midpoint saw sellers overrun it and late in the afternoon we pressed into a neutral print. Price worked a bit off the lows but still ended the day in the lower quadrant.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to press up through overnight high 12,959. Look for sellers up at 13,000 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 12,914.75 before continuing lower, down through overnight low 12,886.25. Look for buyers down at 12,866.50 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down to 12,800 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ down a quick -100 into second week, here is Monday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are off record highs heading into the second full trading week of the year after briefly poking to a new record high Sunday evening. The tech-heavy index made a new high when Globex opened for trade around 6pm New York before dropping off the high and going into a balance above last Friday’s midpoint. Then around 7:20am the overnight sellers became initiative and another down rotation formed. As we approach cash open, price is hovering below the Friday midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am followed by a 3-year note auction at 1pm.

Last week kicked off with a small gap up that was faded by sellers. Sellers managed to resolve all open gaps left behind Christmas eve with three heavy hours of selling before a responsive bid stepped in, marking the low of the week. An early attempt Wednesday to recapture the lows came close on the NASDAQ but the other majors were well off their lows and we rallied into the weekend. Russell 2000 continued to be bullish divergent for a third week suggesting risk tolerance remains high.

Here is the last week performance of each major index:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a neutral extreme up. The day began with a gap up beyond Thursday range. After a brief open auction outside range sellers stepped in and spiked price lower. The early spike failed to recapture the Thursday range. Instead buyers rejected the move and price made an early range extension up. Buyers held price above the daily midpoint until just after New York lunch when a strong sell rotation pressed the market to a new low of day, ultimately closing the overnight gap before a strong responsive bid was found. The rest of the session was spent rallying, from about 2pm onward, ultimately making a new daily high and closing on high of day.

Neutral extreme up.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and trade up to 13,082.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers work a full gap fill up to 13,118.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers gap-and-go lower, tagging 12,928.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Hard being so so beautiful, easy being so so on the right side of history

Good afternoon and good tidings lads. That first working week of 2021 was something was it not? Yes yes and while external events seem to continually trigger babied boomers and weak chinned men who hide behind even weaker beards, the woke or whatever you want to call us are just like…of course.

Nothing amuses me more than when a person logs into a social media platform to air their grievances about the social media platform using the social media platform’s tools. These are very special people. This one especially amuses me. Some folks think I bootlegged Mike’s handle when I made mine. Now here he is, up in his ivory tower somewhere in Florida (lol) tweeting about how he left Twitter:

Going on Twitter to talk about how he doesn’t use Twitter. L. O. L.

Alright now listen, I mean nothing ill upon Mike or anyone else. Life is hardt enough as it is. There is no need for me to project cruelty across the interwebs. I am a decent feller, predisposed with a heck of a beautiful build, who happens to have bolted a model onto the side of Le Fly’s dang time machine that analyzes the behavior of the four major U.S. indices using AUCTION THEORY to create a five day forecast for the stock market. In other words, I built and index model.

That’s it.

That is why my handle on Twitter is @IndexModel (follow me bb…for fleets and tweets).

I came up through the school of thought that said it is impossible to predict the behavior of the stock market. While I hold this to be true, I learned that using data to drive the decision process takes a bit of the mental anguish out of this profession.  Then, the more I began to viscerally understand auction theory and order flow, and the natural way that behavior can move and sway the markets short term, the more I realized I could develop a short term hypothesis that was correct more times than wrong.

I could see…what the market was likely to do over the next 6-30 minutes.

Not always correct.

But correct more times than wrong.

You can drive all the way across the country seeing only a small bit of highway illuminated by the headlights. Same idea. Take it one turn, one straight away, at a time. Okay now make a broad brush stroke in the general vicinity you wish to travel. Now pick your way across the land, back tracking if you reach an impasse, following the water, and so on. This is the five day index model forecast.

If you’re not good at being wrong trading, investing…not for you. Go find some fucking cave with a decent echo chamber, on parler or 8chan or wherever the autists have reconvened, and join along in the circle jerk fantasy of being right.

Hahaha…I’m “right” just barely more than I’m wrong. It comes down to risk management and having my ego stomped, ground up, mutilated, humiliated, and ultimately disintegrated into the ethereal realm where my being simply became just another orb of light occupying a fleshy chemical compound for a blip of time, before floating back into the darkness of space.

Preserving the bindu, I then made my way back to the speculative markets of high finance and began to make my way through the great rotarian scheme as a consistently profitable speculator.

Anyhow nothing lasts. For now things are going okay and that means my job is to convert the recent inflow of fiat into real assets. Places and things I can work with my hands. Earthships and ground-to-air heat transfer systems that will stand for hundreds of years, off the grid, sustaining plant and mammal life.

That’s all. Listen I don’t want to make anyone feel bad about being on the wrong side of history. But dammit, sometimes the only way to make you fuckers see the light is to demean you a bit. For the sake of clarity. The devil knows you’ll need it if you’re to make your way through a world dominated by artificial intelligence and constant surveillance.

Google is good. Amazon is great. We surrender or privacy, as of this date. I’d much rather my life be in the hands of The United Technology Congomerate than The United States of America. Big tech, the internet, these things are more powerful than the intangible (aka collective consciousness) notion of nation states.

Lines on a piece of paper, man. If anything, this place belongs to the trees, man. They were here long before us. They’ll be here long after us—if I have anything to say about it.

We own nothing. Land. We are merely stewards of it during our brief mortal existence. Our body…could easily be caged up by a team of robots. Stocks…L.O.L.

I think they get the point.

Ciao,

Raul Santos, January 10th, 2021

And now, the 320th edition of Strategy Session. Read and enjoy:


Stocklabs Strategy Session: 01/11/21 – 01/15/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.88, medium bull. Markets continue to hold the highs, perhaps trading sideways to mark time, perhaps with a slight upward drift. Keep an eye on Thursday morning. Earnings from Delta airlines and Taiwan semiconductor could put some directional movement into the overall tape heading into the weekend.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Small gap up into the week is faded by sellers. Sellers manage to resolve open gaps left behind Christmas eve with a three heavy hours of selling before a responsive bid steps in, marking the low of the week. An early attempt Wednesday to recapture the lows came close on the tech-heavy NASDAQ but the other majors were well off their lows and we rallied into the weekend. Russell 2000 continues to be bullish divergent for a third week suggesting risk tolerance remains high.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Lagging tech leaves reason for concern. Energy continues to behave independently from the overall market. Staples and Utilities lagged.

slightly bullish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Industry flows break and show big inflows after being muted for several weeks. Last big skew happened back on December 20th: http://ibankcoin.com/raul3/2020/12/20/how-to-invest-like-a-proper-degenerate/

bullish

Here are this week’s results:

III. STOCKLABS ACADEMY

Earnings

The biggest improvement to Stocklabs is the quality and amount of data fed into the systems. As we head into earnings season a key feature becomes critical for navigating the week—knowing who is set to report and when.

This information can be accessed from the Market Overview page. Click the “Earnings” heading to bring up a seven day calendar. Click any date to see who is set to report earnings on that date.

As noted in the executive summary this week, keep an eye on earnings out of TSM and DAL Thursday morning. Semiconductors are the primary driver of our secular bull market and TSM is a major chip maker that could sway the entire PHLX semiconductor index.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Markets continue to hold the highs, perhaps trading sideways to mark time, perhaps with a slight upward drift. Keep an eye on Thursday morning. Earnings from Delta airlines and Taiwan semiconductor could put some directional movement into the overall tape heading into the weekend.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Semiconductors back to rallying, Transports faked lower than ripped

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports nearly confirmed the failed auction set-up we’ve been watching for weeks. Instead the big red candle printed Monday was immidietly met by a big reversal higher Tuesday than an massive conviction rally Wednesday. This move takes the failed auction risk off the table. Now the question becomes, “are we in a fresh leg of discovery up or a balance?” Delta airline earnings Thursday morning may offer some clarity to our question.

See below:

Semiconductors continue to discover higher prices. MU earnings Thursday afternoon defiantly

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is neutral for a seventh consecutive week. No bias.

VI. Stocklabs Hybrid Overbought.

On Wednesday, January 6th Stocklabs flagged hybrid overbought on the 12-month algo. This is a bullish cycle that runs through Wednesday, January 20th end-of-day. Here is the performance of each major index so far:

VII. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“I done the best I could with what I had.” – Joe Louis

Trade simple, utilize your resources effectively

 

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Thoughts after the first week of 2021

There is nothing for me to do this morning in the NASDAQ futures, therefore I will not trade.

So far the ’20s feature an economy so robust (and nobody wants to admit it because we want more stimmi checks) that locking down has done NOTHING to stop the invisible hand. We are expanding so rapidly, in all directions.

There are not enough houses for everyone. More are being built.

There is not enough bitcoin or equity available. Their prices rise.

Anyone willing to work can find work instantly. There is this whole gig economy, thanks to our Big Tech leaders, that serves as an effective safety net for anyone who is out of conventional work or has overspent and needs to shore up their budget.

Everyone on finance twitter is obsessed with bitcoin and tesla. So many jack offs with three letter acronyms after their names find it necessary to lecture on selling telsa and bitcoin. Taking profits. Which is fine and all. But they can kindly go fuck themselves. Especially the ones who have missed this entire move. Even if they’re not jealous, coming off as pretentious is never looked back on with reverence.

Let’s say Tesla drops -40% next week. What then? These honorable cowards then retweet themselves? I’ve had folks telling me to sell Tesla since before the split. Which is fine. I’m glad I became a hardened speculator before their feeble minded trepidation could infect my mind. I know a generational opportunity and any external influence attempting to sway me will be met with a concrete wall aka my dense fucking state.

I do not seek your admiration. I never have. My stated purpose is to extract as much fiat american from the global financial complex as possible. That’s it. By doing so publicly, perhaps my efforts will empower others to take control of their financial destiny. I’d like to see financial service bros completely vanish, replaced by robots, but this is beyond my control, so I dunna really care to push on that initiative.

In my 15 or so years of being active in this community I’ve been told countless times that how I want to trade cannot be done or that what I believe to be true is wrong. When I started blogging, tweeting as an eager to learn 20 year old, I thought shoot…some veteran out there will show me the ropes and make me into a fine trader. Nope. It’s just been me against the machine the whole heckin’ time. I’ve met some decent lads. Real kind folks like The Fly and Ragin Cajun and others, and their interactions have been a blessing. Still, I had to come up with my own approach and show up every day to dial it in. There was no teacher. This is a learning environment. Not a teaching one.

In other words. We don’t know. We don’t know where Tesla will top out. If bitcoin will go to 100k. We don’t know. When the stock market will correct. We dunna kin.

The nice thing is…it doesn’t matter. Just take it one day at a time. Like a jolly alcoholic.

If you make a plan ( a plan can be as simple as five or six written rules) and then trade real money and then reflect on your results, eventually you’ll become a competent investor or trader. By the way these are two different things. Make no mistake. Investors are not traders and vice versa.

The next generational investment is already upon us. It’s psychedelics. Figure out how to gain decent exposure for now and wait for a clear Daddy Elon to emerge in the space. Then go all in invested in that Daddy Elon. Then think. And fast. And Wait.

It is not Paul Stamets. He’s not sexy enough. But he’s about the closest thing. Wait for someone sexier to emerge, hopefully a woman, and then gain as much investing exposure to them as they’ll allow for.

Either you construct some discipline around your work or it will be someone else’s job to do so. You either create work for others or have work created for you. Me, I don’t like to work but I really don’t like being told what to do. Raul is a hard one to manage. Even for Raul.

Raul Santos, January 8th 2021

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