iBankCoin
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
3,601 Blog Posts

A permabulls take on Tesla

I have an optimistic bias towards Tesla and anything else Elon Musk touches.  Unlike a journalist, I have told you my bias up front.  Now, let’s look at a few relevant details regarding Tesla.

The bonds everyone is talking about, with the increasing premium?  They are still being serviced.  They do not expire until 2021.  Also news flash: interest rates are going up.  Did you happen to look at $TLT during Monday’s bloodbath?  It was red.  Welcome to the Jerome Powell Federal Reserve.

The Model 3 production numbers that are being repeatedly thrown under the bus, they have issued more than 20,000 VINS.  A Model 3 typically delivers within 9 days of being issued a VIN number.  Here is a Twitter account you can follow to track VINS on your own, without some negative spin being added to it:

Are the Model 3 production numbers below forecasts?  Yes.  But behind every VIN number is a person elated to receive a Tesla, a person who will spread the word of Tesla faster than any traditional disciple ever could.  BEHOLD:

I wonder how much BMW or General Motors or Toyota spent on advertising last year and how many times those add dollars yielded the kind of brand excitement shown above…

Regarding the Model S recall, I believe our very kind and benevolent Leader addressed the media hullabaloo surrounding the recall sufficiently:

I am not here to convince you Tesla is going to succeed and be the biggest company in the world, surpassing Apple slowly, that all at once.  I already believe.  And I have my money where my mouth is, long a considerable amount of $TSLA shares.

The value I can add, aside from being the loudest bull when it matters most, and otherwise quiet, is to show you how I expect $TSLA price action to play out over the next several months.

Here is how I envision Tesla price action playing out, going forward:

Is the above chart accurate?  Perfect?  Not really.  These are broad brush strokes.  With any luck, share price will be compressed for many years, allowing me to continue accumulating shares.  But I think this gives you a sense of my mentality.  I am extremely long term.  The shares I am buying will not be sold.  They will be passed onto my kin.

This is my take as a permabull.  We are in the middle of a negative news cycle, and journalists from all publications are showing their true colors—they despise the hope and change Tesla and Elon bring.

Fine.

I will continue to be a voice of hope in the sea of negativity.  Also I bought more $TSLA today.

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13 comments

  1. tonka

    Any thoughts on SpaceX or the other ventures? I’ve long thought that they are basically just there to build up good will, in order to fold into Tesla when the going gets tough.

    If they pulled another Solar City and folded in SpaceX, I can only imagine it’d buy them a lot of time, regardless of what the finances look like. People freaking LOVE SpaceX. It’s like they have a get out of jail free card in their back pocket.

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  2. oilerua

    Tesla wil have to live with other car makers . period .
    Electricity is every car maker plan.

    Remember to clean your horse blinders from time to time

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    • Raul3

      Every other car is every other cell phone before the iPhone. Teslas are iPhones and Samsung Galaxy and Google Pixel do not exist yet.

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      • numbersgame

        This anaology may be more accurate than you want: not everyone can afford an iPhone, and even less can afford the “iPhone of cars”.

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        • Raul3

          I don’t invest in companies making products for everyon. I don’t buy products made for everyone. I got to stay in my pocket baby. I buy products like a Santa Barbara housewife.

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  3. oilerua

    new Elon businesses will draw much more attention ( and speculation ) in the years to come then the one to carry a 400$ stock to 600$

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  4. sarcrilege

    bankwupt

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  5. anonymous

    something about this reminds of HODLers

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  6. gappingandyapping
    gappingandyapping

    It would be nice if Tesla cared about their older cars more. They won’t help or support people that are trying to restore damaged Teslas. They would rather see them thrown into landfills and polluting the environment than help. If you have the smallest amount of damage on a Tesla the insurance companies will total it because Tesla charges unrealistic amounts for even the most minor damage.

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    • raul

      sounds like an opportunity for someone to open a specialty shop #capitalism

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