Well That Was Interesting

Day-by-day, when you become emerged into a product and methodology, you begin to better understand “where” you are intraday.  One of my favorite developments as a trader has been understanding what the market tells me when my hypothesis is wrong.  For example, today I had an afternoon hypothesis we could trader lower and target the MCVPOC at 4066.  When the selling wave rolled through at lunch, I was expecting the second wave to push us lower than it did.  This made sense with my recent range study because it would have produced a 39 point down day for the Nasdaq.  That would be in line with the average down days according to the study.

When instead I saw a sharp responsive buy, eight and a quarter points wide (not normal), my trader antennas picked up on a change.  The afternoon hypo was negated and the other side became clear.  At this point I placed risk in CRM, GOOGL, and DANG.  I nailed the intraday move, citing a contra play back to the VPOC, which eventually shifted down to price right around closing prices.  My intraday eye is becoming sharp as I prepare to reenter the futures realm.

Something else happened, though.

Perhaps eating an entire chicken for lunch was excessive, for when I attempted my 3pm “power nap” to 3:30pm, I overslept and missed the closing bell.  Now I have a bit more risk than I really wanted (eek).  My plan was to cut something to make way for this fresh batch of risk.  All I managed to close was FEYE weekly calls which might not have even been the right move.  I have a bit too much weekly risk already, and it is Monday.  May the warm breeze of late summer drift us just a touch higher to allow a rotation out of shorter duration and into longer duration, amen.

To top it all off, I have to go under the knife after market close tomorrow, very routine dental procedure, but a bug in my head nonetheless.  Needless to say, I will have some interesting decisions to make tomorrow morning.

So what is working?  My long term investments are treating me exactly how I expected they would.  I think people are waking up to the huge lead Go Pro has in the wearable market.  You would be short sighted to consider them merely a “camera-on-a-stick”.  If they can use their momentum properly, then they should continue to outpace any competition in the tiny HD-video arena.  With panache I might add.  I stand by my $72.00 profit target which is calculated using the valuation Apple gave to Beats during the buyout.  Twitter added a “buy” button to tweets apparently and now we are headed for new all-time highs. Now, next year, or five years, I will own Twitter until the fabric of electronic society radically changes.  LO is sort of dead after the merger news but whatever, money is parked and earning a coupon.  Today might have been the day to add to XON, but I want a bit more information before adding.

Everything else is subject to liquidation. I am like a cat on a hot tin roof up here frying eggs. The timing is everything.