iBankCoin
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
3,781 Blog Posts

Expect Very Little Before Brunch

This morning we have Nasdaq futures up a bit, just over 5 handles, but until we hear from the dovish Yellen at 10 am it is likely the markets just chop around.  We are currently priced to open inside yesterday’s value which suggests little-to-nothing occurred overnight to change the perceived value of the index.

The intermediate term is in near-perfect balance.  As exciting as that may sound, it means an increased risk of long liquidation exists.  We likely need another 10 points of Nasdaq progress atop our current swing high before price can escape the gravitational forces of mean revision.  See below:

07152014_IntTerm_NQ

Elevating the likelihood of a mean revision even more is the 11.25 point gap we printed yesterday morning.  If buyers cannot defend their initiating drive tail (pictured below) today, then we could be in store for a quick gap fill which could very well set the tone for a complete mean revision trade.  This is only one scenario, of course, as sustaining trade above the initiating drive tail could be the catalyst to launch a new value discovery phase up.  Remember, there is still a 14-year-old open gap above, an artifact from the dot com bubble.  I have highlighted this driving tail, as well as a few other price levels on the following market profile chart:

07152014_marketprofile_NQ

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7 comments

  1. raul3

    hypo 1 – early pop, perhaps new swing high to MM target 3933, then sideways chop/balance above LVN at 3923.25

    hypo 2 – push lower on the open to overnight VAL 3920.50 before finding responsive buying back up to overnight high 3929.75 and balancing out

    hypo 3 – push lower on open, take out overnight low 3915.75, run overnight stops down to 3913.25 before finding responsive buying back up to 3919.75 to test overhead supply

    hypo 4 – drive down, take out overnight low at 3915.75 and slide through initiative buying tail and into gap fill down to 3898.25

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  2. matt_bear

    YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  3. matt_bear

    SWORDS OUT!!!! (no homo)

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  4. UncleBuccs

    The return of the dark knight… I’m gonna have to break out that ashtray…

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  5. UncleBuccs

    Even though we slipped a little this morning, I’m viewing the grande return as a very bullish omen…

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