Note: All price levels mentioned going forward will be in reference to the March contract.
If you were just waking up to the market, you may be unaware of the wild ride index futures took overnight. The S&P printed over a 20 point range in the overnight session after reversing early weakness. The Nasdaq traded over 40 points in range. In short, last night featured violent indecision of the overnight/low volume variety.
As of 8am, the S&P is set to open above Friday’s range which tells us we are in a high risk/reward environment. The NASDAQ is not quite above Friday’s range, but is outside of Friday’s value which gives us a similar context to frame our day.
Early on it will be interesting to see if sellers can reject the overnight progress and press back into Friday’s value. Turning our attention to the NASDAQ, we are opening in the slippery single prints from early Friday where sellers aggressively auctioned lower. We may see a similar push from sellers early on and should monitor trade at 3461.50 which marks the value area high on Friday’s session. Below there we have a VPOC at 3458 and a value area low at 3452.25. Short sellers will be on the lookout for a rejection of this range as it may signal a bullish reversal is materializing.
I have noted these levels, as well as key resistance points and a few possible scenarios on the following market profile charts: