iBankCoin
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
3,778 Blog Posts

Exhibiting Complacency

Hello Friends,

I have been busting my trading butt this week and the result is my best week ever.  I could not pull tricks like this without the hard work I put in and all the discussions I have with everyone.

The iBankCoin team is strong.  Make us your cornerstone and you will become a strong trader capable of defining your own edge and bringing it to the market every day.

I am 90% long some wiry stocks, some of the most violent movers in town.  And I am cutting out early because things are about to get plum weird in la casa de Raul.  This is gluttonous complacency.  ONVO was/is my largest position.

I added to my chicken for the chicken is soon to ARISE!

For some excerpts of the hedonism and debauchery tune in this weekend via instagram at my handle @twosmuth

http://youtu.be/LoQYw49saqc

If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter

14 comments

  1. RaginCajun

    Well done sir.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  2. Belzile

    Way to go Raul!

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  3. TheHarper

    Phish fall tour starts tonight in Hampton. I am watching via my couch. you are cordially invited lol

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  4. heisenberg

    raul, i’m starting to loose all my faith in GOGO. What is your take?

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  5. sazfurb

    Hey Raul, re: PPC, could it be argued that there’s a descending triangle forming and it just needs to breakdown below the bottom trend line for confirmation? I’m looking at the daily chart and the pattern looks like it started on 8/14. Am I misinterpreting this? New to technical analysis so I wanted your input. Thanks!

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
    • raul3

      I will certainly be keeping this tiger on a short leash

      • 0
      • 0
      • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
    • raul3

      I see the triangle. It tells us a seller is hard at work–either a large investor reducing long exposure or a short seller building a position in a rather aggressive manner.

      We also have a buyer who considers the bottom of the triangle to be a bargain. The buyer keeps showing up, even Friday.

      Now we must observe PPC closely as we are near the tip of this triangle. Whoever wins the move away from this formation will trigger heavy order flow because either the buyer will be pressed to retreat or the seller to get squeezed out.

      The formation suggests consolidation, said consolidation precludes order flow, and order flow propels the market.

      • 0
      • 0
      • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
      • sazfurb

        Got it! Thanks for the very thorough explanation btw, that was very helpful.

        I was watching the action today per your advice to see what happened. Looking at the 30 min time frame, there was heavy sell volume at the open and close. In order to strengthen my understanding of triangle patterns, I want to ask you about the price action today:

        1. Would the heavy sell volume in the 2-min and 5-min time frames at the open be considered as confirmation to the downside? For example, if I was holding a position in PPC should I have sold it in the first 10 mins of the market open? I’m trying to understand at what point in time does one have confirmation of the pattern.

        2. I notice on the 30 min, 5 min, and 2 min frames, that’s there’s a large spike in sell volume at the market close today. Is this further confirmation of the downward move. At this point should one have already exited the trade if they were long PPC?

        I hope these questions make sense and I really appreciate your feedback and analysis!

        • 0
        • 0
        • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
        • raul3

          I really like these questions.

          1. An aggressive exit would be when today’s market took out Friday’s close. That was decent confirmation of the triangle. A more certain, but also higher risk (to initiate a short position) confirmation point would be when Friday’s LOD (low of day) was taken out. Overall, the triangle did a decent job confirming itself when it printed a lower high and a lower low verses Friday’s candle.

          2. Volume certainly supports the confirmation of a move. We especially like to see heavy volume coming in during new highs or lows to show the order flow occurring–in this case likely long liquidation. It supports the idea that value (not just price) was moving lower.

          3. More Thoughts – I have traded this stock before and I have a decent feel for it. I am obviously playing on defense at this point, which sucks, but I can usually hold though some pain and use the next bounce to reevaluate my position and perhaps cut the loss.

          Additional confirmation of the triangle would be if price retested the area and was again met with selling pressure.

          There tend to be nasty shakeouts at the tips of these consolidation patterns. Check out AMBA on 09/24 around the open…it faked lower then ripped higher for days. This doesn’t appear to be the case in PPC, but it is something to keep in mind when developing a skill set for trading these patterns.

          I tend to want to see a consolidation break hold into the close for confirmation.

          • 0
          • 0
          • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
          • sazfurb

            Glad you enjoyed the questions – your answers have been incredibly helpful!

            From the AMBA example, I understand it’s not quite as black and white as price breaking out of the pattern and always following through in the expected direction. You have to analyze multiple factors, like volume, location of candles and highs and lows in relation to the previous day, and perhaps wait for the consolidation break to hold into the close for validation.

            So about that AMBA example, if one had used the heavy sell volume at the open as their trigger, would this be a prime example of why having well placed stops is critical? If you had entered a short position when it broke out of the triangle, would you have placed a stop at the previous day’s close to protect yourself?

            Thanks again!

            • 0
            • 0
            • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"