BACK FROM THE DEAD

Without sounding too bitchy about the whole ordeal, there are times when I feel, due to my seasonal allergies, I’d prefer to be on the Bakhmut front lines lobbing hand grenades into Ukrainian trenches. Then again, I very much doubt the Bakhmut front lines have my preferred foods and beverages. I often wonder if the soldiers fighting there suffer SEASONAL ALLERGIES as well.

I was awoken to my own sneezing at 5am, and then again at 7am, and again when the market opened at 9:30. I didn’t bother looking at the tape. All I did was deleverage myself and go back to sleep. Because you see, when I am asleep I am not suffering. But now I am awake again, suffering in spite of Claritin 24, down 1% and looking for a way to get my money back.

I am running out of time — and the late afternoon looms. I have no opinions thus far, other than to suggest the market is rancid. I was hoping for something grandiose to shuttle me into the weekend feeling ebullient and proud. I’d venture over to my wife and say — “you see this here? This is my account balance at my brokerage firm. I’d like very much for you to thank me now for my good work and all of my efforts.” She’d glare at me in a combination of pure hatred and respect and change the subject to something like “when are you going to put your shoes away.” And I’d say “indeud, I will take that as a thank you. Next time make it snappier.” And we’d carry on in this carousel of nonsense for the next 25-30 minutes.

Today my brain was addled with sneezes and thoughts about my dead tree. Tomorrow, I shall feast on the bones of my enemies — as I closed the session, albeit weak, up 65bps. I am now 147% LEVERAGED LONG into what I view as a no brainer long trade.

My visions aren’t the result of too many sneezes to the brain, but what I’d like to believe is a vast reservoir of experience and a wealth of knowledge. However, should my gambit fall flat, I will most likely blame it on my seasonal allergies.

Understand something, you are reading the missives of a man whomst is +40% for the annum. The very fact that I bother to update this blog — you should feel fortunate for it and thank the Gods I am charitable enough to offer my insight — FREE FROM CHARGE!

I understand the pecking order of things and know the poor olde hedge fund managers are desperately seeking out higher stocks in order to secure their comfort this summer at the Hamptons — cocaine fueled parties festooned with trannies and mountebanks.

The entire crypto concept was called into question last year, as asset prices dropped — so did BTC-ETH. This chagrined people greatly who said cryptos would be a safe haven during a period of inflation. The flaw in that thinking was to presume another fiat currency would become more attractive than dollars and that inflation would provoke people to move their assets away from dollars.

WRONG.

The inflation was global. All things being equal, the dollar still reigned supreme.

However, during the recent mini banking crisis — we saw something much different. People SOLD dollars and moved those assets into cryptos. There is no debating it. The price of BTC soared as the shares of SBNY, FRC, SIVB and others spiraled lower amidst digital bank runs.

Which brings me to my next suggestion: diversify yourselves against the specter of de-dollarization. The effect won’t happen overnight. Perhaps we’ll see the dollar trade percentage drop from 59% to under 50% over the next decade. Bear in mind, the vast majority of global wealth is still heavily concentrated in the west. However, the trend is undeniable and the risk or even the suggestion that the dollar might fall against other currencies is reason enough to asset allocate into a battle tested currency: Bitcoin.

Because of this, we are seeing the miners soar: MSTR, RIOT, MARA, SDIG, CLSK and others. Whilst they are fun to trade, they are NOT serious replacements for a currency and should not be bought as representation for Bitcoin.

I want to scratch my eyes out. I have been sneezing for the past 30 mins straight, in what seems to be the worst seasonal allergies I’ve had since the morbid times I lived in Staten Island, NY. In that house, similar to this one, I planted lots of flowers and enjoyed gardening and I paid the price in spades many times over. There is no solution or cure, only suffering. I am all but immune to Claritin and the other stuff is child’s play to whatever my idiot head is rejecting.

NEVERTHELESS, I managed in between sneezes to sell my shorts at the open and let me longs bust loose, especially SDIG, and now have gains of 1%. They could’ve been better, no doubt. But given my circumstances, I am lucky and so very fortunate to even type these words into the keyboard without SNEEZING right into the fucking screen — festooning with with mucus and spit.

I’m hungry. Off to fetch myself a snack much to the chagrin of Mrs. Fly who is sure to immediately kick me out of the kitchen on sight.

The fucking people inside of Stocklabs made fun of my terrible tree situation today — all but declaring my new house a hazard zone with a faulty foundation and underground sewage leak — all due to a dead tree in the front lawn. My landscaper is warning me to not plant another tree there, so it looks like I’ll have to fucking seed it and fuck off forever with my tree ideas.

Today’s market was all about good news and bad news.

The good news was I lost money, which means the FUCKS WHO FOLLOW MY TRADES inside the Pelican Room lost money too (join now!).

The bad news is I lost money.

Let there be no fooling here. I am in complete control here and my 1.28% drawdown was nothing for me to worry about. I am still in a state of excellence and the amount of money I make isn’t determined thanks to external events, but the amount of time I want to invest in my trading.

Presently, I am busy with my tree and sneezing. After I get through that, I will depart for Europe for two weeks to see it before it gets destroyed.

All is good at House Fly. The iBankCoin redesign is underway and a multitude of upgrades are planned for Stocklabs. You should join now, in order to replace the fucks in there now — this way I can feel good about making money again.

We plunged the open and looked dead for a bit and now we’re jimmying back up, although slowly and methodically. This is the sort of day you go fishing for your own balls and determine if it’s worth the trouble, or perhaps eat a sandwich and traverse the house for the remainder of the day in search of entertainment.

I have no special insight to feelings in regards to the tape, other than to think very strongly that a massive crash is more than unlikely to occur during the month of April.

I have greater issues at hand, such as a Crape Myrtle tree that appears to be dead. I had it planted in the Fall and was looking forward to its blossom and I traversed the entire country club and my tree is the only one without leaves, so it’s dead and it needs to be replaced.

But why did it die? Is this hole doomed to kill any tree that is planted in it?

Upon burying another tree in this hole, I will have them dig deeper and replace the soil and also test the PH. I will be damned if a 3rd tree dies in this fucking spot.

All I want is to see these plants grow without being too much of a menace. Even so, my allergies all but assure that I suffer enough for just going outside to look at them. I cannot venture out for too long, or else I’ll suffer the entire night. Yesterday Mrs. Fly took me on one of her ludicrous sojourns with the fucking dogs for a 3 mile walk and I paid the price in sneezes for about 10 hrs afterwards.

Into the final hours of trade, my health is middling and my mood grim.

The CPI numbers came in at 5%, steadily trending down. The initial reaction was way up and as soon as stocks opened, it plunged.

I had both UVIX and SOXS at 10% a piece in addition to other leveraged longs and I closed them out at the open, wrongly assuming the small dip would be shallow. But now I see the dip turned into a crevasse and the entire market is being consumed by it.

I’ve since taken a 5% SQQQ and 10% LABD position to stem the tide.

With oil up and rates down, I figured today would be another green day.
But we have given back over 100 NASDAQS and now menace a “sell the news” spectacle over the longs.

For now, I’ll keep the hedges and will likely increase SQQQ to 10%, keeping the shorts light since I already blew it once with them and would prefer to limit my trading errors to a minimum today.

Typical end of day COLLAPSE on mid volume and breadth. It was easy to imagine this could happen. However serious you might take it, I would advise you to avoid being fooled again — for we are heading higher.

Even so, I took out some hedges in UVIX and SOXS for a just in case scenario. I gave back a little, closing +195bps — now boosted by a PERMANENT BTC position at 5%. I will permit that position to balloon no greater than 10% of assets. The rationale for having a BTC position is a conservative one rooted in the belief that when the dollar loses reserve status and falls under 50% of all trade, we might start to see a profound weakening of the dollar leading to an eventual collapse. Under such a grim scenario, people will flee for BTC and we can see the price of cryptos skyrocket way past anything you ever imagined. I can see this scenario playing out following the inevitable defeat of NATO in Ukraine and potential embarrassment in Taiwan against China.

We are led by un-serious people and their plots and schemes are spiteful and not coherent. They are not all knowing, but instead incompetent. I will continue to play the market in front of me — but know the eventual path is towards perdition and ruin.

Let’s quickly analyze risk.

Are FX crosses wonky?

No

Are commodity prices out of control?

Mixed.

Sugar is +31% YTD, Cocoa +16%, and Coffee +15%. However, natty is -50% YTD, nickel -21%, and wheat -14%.

The most important commodity oil is about flat.

Are yields spiking, potentially causing more bank failures and potential housing collapse?

NOT ANYMORE.

The US 10yr is at 3.43% and TLT is now +7.4% for 2023.

As far as I can tell, we have two things that can derail markets and send them into another panic.

1. Ukrainian war

2. Major earnings misses.

The latter should not be ignored and although the major factors that determine risk have abated — these things can move quickly should earnings come in much worse than expected. We will shift from inflation fears to deflation overnight and the Fed will then be expected to cut rates, which may or may not be applauded by Wall St — wholly dependent on the severity of the drawdowns.

For now, and ahead of any major reports, markets will trade on momentum.

Listen to me. You were warned in advance of an impending rally from America’s biggest bear and did nothing about it. Now your losses are strewn across your portfolios as you listen to former hedge fund managers on acid for your top ideas. The past of maximum resistance is the path we’re on. The spring mud will soon harden under drought and the wheels of war will hasten, so you ought to be ready for breakouts.

My gains amount to +225bps for the session and it would’ve been a lot more — had I actually traded from the open. Nevertheless, the indices might not be ripping higher — but the smaller capped high risk plays are indeud soaring and at the vanguard is BTC. To play this, I had some IREN at the open but have now moved onto others, such as WULF and SDIG. I have hedged my portfolio with a 20% SQQQ position to arb the divergence between oil stocks/higher risk and large cap tech. This week’s quant is heavily leaning towards oil stocks.

When you’re reading me and following me you’re also following a consummate professional — a man very capable of making money in any market at any time. It’s not very hard and if you’d only listen and shut the fuck up — you too can set aside your feeeeeeelings and trade well.