BOND YIELDS BUST LOOSE TO THE UPSIDE

At this point I can’t even keep up with the TIK TOK. The bond market is throwing misdirection on a daily basis — but today we have real doom casting upon us with the US 10yr +10bps to 4.05%. This is not a drill — Jack. This is the real deal.

Listen to me, mortgage rates will encroach upon 8% soon and the FOMC will hike again because the CPI will be 2.10%. Since they’re autistic, they need it to be exactly 2% or below. Once below, the FOMC will cut rates — but by then it’ll be too late.

Just like in 2006 when Greenfuck hiked until the economy broke, the Fed is attempting to do that now. But you slobs have been resilient and your stubbornness to break is causing them grief — because assets are still expensive and there aren’t any deals to be had, lest you want to by Bed Bath and Beyond’s inventory.

The NASDAQ is down 70 — but panic is low. But you should panic and the faster you do panic the quicker the Fed can have their COLLAPSE and be able to text their friends to buy up the asset forfeitures on the cheap.

It’s important that I receive credit — because it’s due.

I closed the way I was supposed to close and received what was coming to me. I stand before you on one limp leg and starving due to a self imposed diet to remove the fat which has infiltrate my life. I will not stand for it and do not require food  — because it’s secondary to my goals.

My trading account at RECOURD highs, the quant +7.2% YTD doing what robots do — and my new strategic account just getting started. It was an old account that had losses in it and you will soon find those losses to be erased! with gains. That’s a longer term account designed for men who work and cannot trade with me during the sessions.

Le Fly is an immense talent — able to navigate and dominate all markets in front of him. I do not tell you this to make you feel bad — but instead to make myself feel better. If given the choice to talk shit or not, I will always talk shit, even with just one leg, because that’s what men do.

I wish you the best in your endeavors. But truthfully, if I was you — some greasy mechanic spending his days in underwear — I’d follow me and achieve greatness thru me. We can’t all be stock market wizards — can we?

The faster you acknowledge and accept your limitations — the faster you will learn to delegate to people more gifted than you.

We have a fucking theme going for sure. With war in Niger looming large and the dreadfully frigid and icy winter looming just a few months away — it seems the CATAMITES in DC have stopped leaking the SPR onto the market — and so the price has rebounded in kind. The price of crude, that is.

Moreover, should the Niger situation spiral with PMC Wagner with s-400s there — I could envision a scenario of doom surrounding Europe’s energy situation, providing rallies in both LNG and coal.

That’s right, the continent of windmills will be sending their fucking migrants into the mines to fetch them the black.

Let’s catch you up to speed.

Former French colonies are now called ECOWAS. France prints francs for them pegged to the euro and in return they had to hold 50% of their reserves at the Bank of France. One of those nations was Niger. Last week the Niger govt was toppled by a military dictator, who is pro Russian. PMC Wagner operates in several adjacent African nations and might be assisting the junta in Niger.

Who needs Niger? 90% of Niger is without electricity and is one of the poorest nations on earth.

Well, it just so happens Niger is one of the largest suppliers of Uranium, actually the main supplier to France. Thirty percent of French uranium comes from Niger and they just suspended exports to France after France and other ECOWAS states threatened war. The military junta in Niger had been given a deadline to surrender and allow the western friendly regime take back power.

Spot Uranium

All of this leads to the trade I’m in now: spot 308. Befor this war uranium prices were squeezing higher, because let’s not forget Russia is a major supplier of uranium too. If France cannot get Niger back into its fold, there is going to be a problem in the EU and this might lead to another spike in LNG and coal prices.

It bears repeating, attacks on the new Niger junta are imminent. The way this will play out isn’t clear and I’m thinking a risk premium might be applied, especially if Russia actively supports Niger to fend off western attacks.

Since the entire market is 7 stocks, I will show their valuations and compare them to the past to get an idea on whether or not we’re in a fucking bubble.

APPLE
PE 33.15x
PS 8x

3 yr avg
PE 28x
PS 7x

MICROSOFT
PE 34.8X
PS 11.8X

3 yr avg
PE 30.6
PS 10.8X

GOOGLE
PE 27.9X
PS 5.8X

3 yr avg
PE 24.7X
PS 5.87X

AMAZON
PS 2.6X

3 yr avg
PS 2.69X

NVIDIA (LOL)
PS 45X

3 yr avg
PS 29X

TESLA
PS 9X

3 yr avg
PS 11.1x

META
PE 37.6x
PS 6.95x

3 yr avg
PE 25x
PS 5.5x

You be the fucking judge. Look here Jack, the only stock on that list that is “cheap” is Tesla and that guy is now solely focused on fucking with liberals at X. I am long Tesla and love it and have created a focus account just for it — but I hope it comes down so that I can buy more.

But you also have to take what I am saying with a grain of homemade salt. I, in fact, have just 1 leg now — with the other braced the fuck up after a heinous pickle ball injury. And, I am generally disdainful of how America is today — which is a family tradition in aging House Fly males. I remember my grandfather throwing his slippers at the TV because “some communist scum” had said something he didn’t approve of. THAT BEING SAID, there is a difference between now and then, such as now they’re targeting the children and they’re truly cajoling them to become gay and/or to sever their cocks. All of this, and much more, is in fact BEARISH for stocks — as societal collapse is deserving of a valuation DISCOUNT not a premium.

On the other hand, what if “this time is different” and we’re truly in a new paradigm of technological improvement, buoyed by productive SLAVE-CATTLE and innovation which will lead us to brand new discoveries and pleasure domains whereby men and women alike will live in harmony and fornicate with one another in public view and lavish themselves with the very best wares made by migrants in Europe — making everyone feel, individually, very grand and important — as if life was designed specifically for them to enjoy and not to procreate or build families — but to simply exist and become more and more important with each booster shot injected directly into their hearts.

A few days ago a new development in the wonderful world semiconductors was tweeted out — went viral — and then speculation ensued.

Today might have seen the biggest physics discovery of my lifetime. I don't think people fully grasp the implications of an ambient temperature / pressure superconductor. Here's how it could totally change our lives.

— Alex Kaplan (@alexkaplan0) July 26, 2023

What the fuck are superconductors and who makes them?

We can make layman bets based on rudimentary evidence. We know NVDA, AMD and MU are making high speed chips. But let’s get stupid — shall we? We can delve into the Quantum computing space and ASSume they’re gonna be players. The truth is, most of the early runners in a space rarely turn out to be players.

NEVERTHELESS, we play them anyway — for the honor and the glory.

I am playing the following

AAOI, AMSC (they have “superconductor” in their fucking name). I traded in and out of QSI, QUBT today — but there are others. I suspect there will be more speculation in this space soon. I also suspect certain areas of the market will remain hot.

What are some areas to look into?

RARE EARTH, LIDAR, AUTONOMOUS, EV, EV CHARGING, CRYPTO MINERS, AI,VR, BNPL, Quantum computing, Flying Taxis, Chinese buriito, and good olde fashioned oil and gas drillers.

I’ve found bull runs are often highlighted by themes and these themes are usually temporary — but explosive. I have all of these themes and others organized inside Stocklabs. I believe if you’re gonna play the runners — you must keep organized lists of who the players are. For example, this weekend I will research all I can about SUPERCONDUCTORS and try to learn about some stocks I’ve never heard of — which of course is rare for me.

I closed +28bps, after being down 50bps from the open thanks to opportunistic trades.

Listen to me again —

If you’re looking at this tape, NASDAQ +275, and thinking “maybe us bears still have a chance” — you Sir are most stupidly dispositioned. It’s important to know when to retreat and when to give them the bayonet. The field has been cleared — there is no one left to fight the tranny bulls. You have, Sir, been shot.

There is nothing more for you to see here — go home to your families and children and bask in the sun for the remainder of your time and know that you gave it your all — but the tranny bulls were just too much for you to handle.

We are in a bull fucking market — and nothing can be said otherwise.

Breadth is a paltry 67%, but the verve and trickery in which this market has operated this week — fooling bears into coming out of their dens only to shoot canister into their bearded faces — is remarkable.

If you’re thinking about an afternoon collapse — GET IT OUT OF YOUR HEADS — for that will never and can never happen!

I closed out my UVIX at the open for a loss and have done little trading until this past hour, as I am now long a pastiche of very low brow and degenerate stocks in the hopes of seeing them jimmy higher.

Good day —

Today we bore witness to a most grotesque market reversal and hundreds of stocks falling by more than 5%. Before we gain erections, you should remember that all market drawdowns, at least recently, has resulted in a mean reversion lift.

The difference is, this go around being different and all, JOE FUCKING BIDEN IS BRAINDEAD and the bond market is in turmoil — as the Federal Reserve fixes itself onto America’s middled class in a most deleterious manner.

I am trading small — but closed with a 10% hedge in UVIX. My intent or goal is to profit from America’s financial collapse. If that should not materialize, I also intend on profiting off sharply higher stocks.

All bear markets start somewhere. Let’s hope today is the start of something truly terrible.

The bond market is speaking volumes about the present situation. I had been sanguine on recent events, given the collapse in inflation. HOWEVER, judging by the US 10YR soaring above 4% today, up 17bps, I am once again motivated to remind you that PAX AMERICANA, as you know it, is most certainly over.

Whilst the NASDAQ is down just 42, the small capped index is off by 1.3% in line with the Stocklabs 4000 — down 1.4%.

Listen to me very closely.

There is a fever boiling in Ukraine that isn’t exactly favorable to the alliance. WTI is up 1.3% and the Euro is down 0.9% against the dollar, suggestive that the move yesterday was nonsense and the FOMC will hike some more and soon.

With VIX barely $14 and so much fucking risk out there, the easy play here, inexorably, is to sell this shit fucking short into the ground.

It’s pretty god damned hot out there — must be all of that global warming caused by hairspray which is preventing me from not being a little bit cooler. The market might appear to be boring, somewhat listless, but this is the process of consolidation that precedes another big move.

We must assume, as much as it pains our hearts, that markets will BUST LOOSE to the upside again. Do not get mad at me, for I am just a messenger.

I’m back to a most austere form of living — sustaining on about 1200 cals per day NO FUCKING BOOZE EVER and some form of working out every single day. I will do this as a penance for becoming so rotund. If just tuning in, I recently found out I had gained 10 pounds without knowing, most likely caused by leading a hedonistic lifestyle of being a foodie and generally stuffing my face with treats. Well, those fucking days are over and I will soon resemble a skeleton with people fearing for my well being.

I’m +12bps today, with zero trading other than a few random things. Markets are in full TRICKERY mode and I ought to be careful with it, lest I too might fall into a drum of gasoline and rolled into an oven.