BRILLIANT!

A few random data points for this Saturday.

We are technically strong. Any ideas of us barreling directly to hell should be labeled as fake news and the sender executed for violating state laws.

Aggregate earnings busted loose last quarter. It appeared, at the time, we were dying. But in hindsight — we were in the process of turning it around.

What are the lessons to be learned?

Inflation was caused by the fucking COVID stimulus checks you stupid piece of shits. The FOMC has been running gambits forever and never caused the type of inflation we saw last year. The only difference was the stimmy checks.

The Fed 100% knew this and used the cover of inflation to hike rates back to a normal range. Understand something, ZIRP was a major problem for central banks — because it prevented them from staving off MASSIVE COLLAPSE in the event it happened. So what they did was — they used COVID and the inflation it would 100% cause by sending the poors TRILLIONS in free money to get interest rates back to traditional levels.

Place aside your hatred for the Fed and please acknowledge the brilliance in these moves.

What are the net results?

People, for a time, enjoyed some money and for a moment had to pay $12 for paper plates. But now ordinary folk, especially retirees, can earn 5%+ in treasuries, effectively stabilizing many pensions.

The rate increases, for whatever fucking reason, did not collapse the economy. I am still trying to figure that one out. My hunch is the upper 5% is so rich now — the lower 95% no longer move the needle and are mostly chaff and/or slave cattle to be spent in wars and factory accidents.

The NASDAQ closed down for the week — but the SPY was up. I listed steady and made +0.4% — closing with a fully long book of conservative stocks with a small hedge. We all want to see the fires accelerate and for strategic loss to be absorbed on a wide scale. HOWEVER, it seems that isn’t in the cards — JUST YET.

In the meantime, we bide our time hiding inside of stocks — making money and stockpiling things for survival. We might stumble upon the BARBIE movie by accident and become egregiously offended by the abject nature of our enemies and how they continue to kick America down into the sewers — drowning the youth in excrement and waste.

This is what we do know.

Inflation has been defeated. The global economy isn’t failing off a cliff. The war in Ukraine is frozen. The dollar isn’t collapsing. The far left is winning. We are all aging.

If, for example, markets tumbled 10% from here we’d still be in an uptrend — but there would be reason for concern. The NASDAQ is DOWN 0.7% for the week and some people out there are acting like the world is ending.

Yes, it’s true — markets haven’t gone up every single day. But it’s also true that the bears haven’t been banking either.

We are in a consolidation mode aka trading sideways — which usually portends a violent move up or down. My bias of course is for a horrendously lower tape amidst volcanos busting with mean fire. Alas, I am rarely entreated with these surprises, so expect more of the same.

At the moment I am 100% long and levered with an SQQQ short at 20% of equity — flat for the session. I am focused on risk averse stocks — because I too am consolidating and cannot truly focus on trading well whilst harangued by broken knees and such.

I have to keep this short, for two reason.

1. I just got back from the pool and need to shower.

2. My kids have their friend from NJ here and I am being forced to see Barbie at 4:50pm.

I have been trading in and out of inverse ETFs to hedge against a long book and so far quite successfully. I am +5bps in an otherwise drab day. I was correct in assuming risk averse was back on the table. I am nearly fully invested now in low beta divvy payers and enjoying the carnage in tech.

My dream, naturally, is for this all to end. This perverted distortion of free market capitalism produced by people who hate me. I’d like very much to see them fail and in doing so make America rise again and become glorious. The interlopers, of course, will be upset by this and if being honest with you — I feel they’ll win because they have the resources and the means. Everyone else, you and me both, are chaff — cannon fodder to be used at their discretion.

There used to be benefits in this global order, when it was benign. But now it’s wholly malignant and I’m afraid the fractures on society are so great, due to the 4th turning, that the only way forward is through the fires.

In terms of professional money management, no one does it better than me. But I do hope you well and for your families to prosper into what can only be described as an acute cataclysm with profound consequences.

Big move in the 10yr today caused me to stop out of my TMF. Although crashing of rates is a conviction trade for me, the timing isn’t now — apparently. I have no interest in sitting around for things to materialize.

Having said that, stocks are cratering, Nasdaq off by 150+ after a series of earnings reports. For the record, I’m not too concerned. On the other hand, now is a good time to hedge.

I’m mostly long secular stocks now, slow growth divvy payers and they’re all up.

What’s happening is called rotation, out of shit stocks into quality. How long it lasts is an interesting question.

For now 35% cash, 15% hedged, the rest in boring names like MDLZ — but I’m up 9bps unlike you — who are likely roasting inside of hell.

Here is my thesis, at least for tomorrow and perhaps into the future.

Rates will decline, which will provide a benefit to the balance sheets of regional banks. With yields dropping, large cap dividend payers will be bought. This might coincide with overall weakness in the tape — because let’s face it — this market is fucking nuts.

The specter of a reversal to the downside is very much in my heart; but I have yet to see any actual evidence that this is happening. Ergo, before getting short — it might be wise to reduce risk and bulk up on lower beta high divvy stocks.

This is my play.

Tactically, I’m up 3% for July, 49% for 2023, and to be honest have nothing to spend the money on. I will never remove it and really need to get myself a S. Dakota trust ASAP. There isn’t a sense of urgency for me to make 50% more or 5% more from now through Fall. I will, however, impose my will upon any tape that possesses violence.

Good day.

If you look at the biggest winners throughout history, you will find them to be companies with very high profit margin. Amazon wasn’t killing it until they started selling cloud services on an enterprise level, which greatly increased their gross margins.

I am going to steer this right back the fuck into Bitcoin and there is nothing you can do about it.

Here are the lowest producing Bitcoin miners.

You see WULF at the very highest margins? Do you want to know how they’re able to achieve it? I’m gonna tell you anyway.

NUCLEAR FUCKING POWERED MINING MACHINES.

While you cunts twiddle your thumbs with windmills and solar panels, the men at WULF are using clean energy that works, via boiling water.

While WULF is small, they’re growing. They produce about 12 BTC per day and there’s a reason why the stock price has been hot. Coming in at #2 on margins is CIFR — again small but highly profitable.

When BTC catapults to new RECOURD HIGHS, you will remember the day I posted this and be grateful for it.

OR, these CEOs of those companies turn out to be criminals and you’ll really hate me.

My new strategic portfolio is intended to receive all of my best ideas, conviction trades that I often miss out on because I’m too busy trading to and fro. One of my best ideas, if not the very best, is being long US long dated bonds. This trade has been poor and the specter of renewed inflation is always just around the bend ready to grab our legs when we start running. Nevertheless, it’s only a matter of time when we see MATERIAL WEAKNESS in the global economy, from which will bring forth a flight to safety into bonds — cascading yields and general acrimony.

My other dunk shot investment is UBER. People talk shit about UBER — but always use it when in the city. Their brand is unassailable and once they can figure out how to rid themselves of drivers — margins are off to the races.

I am trading extremely light today, since I do believe in my heart of hearts a great calamity looms.

More later, +16bps.

Inside Stocklabs there was a general sense of entitlement today — with members cavorting around the room feeling grande because markets rewarded them once again with outsized returns. There seems to be some confusion amongst the general populace who feeeeels as if this life is supposed to be fun, filled with passport stamps, and feeding until portly and disjointed.

This is a fallacy.

Life is hard and should continue to be hard. You should work until you are dead and travel very little, especially to places that do not have proper civilizations that understand how to produce clean water.

You have been lied to your entire lives and believe your own happiness is paramount to all and that your legacy should only be that of a jovial person who liked to smoke pot and eat cheese with his wine on a Saturday night whilst watching FOOLSBALL.

YOU SIR are wrong and your disconnect from the natural order of things is what is wrong with society today.

I hedged heavily, bled out by 81bps for the session, as the fats inside Stocklabs poked fun at me and pretended to be smart. I look forward to the reckoning to come and the great many pains that will be inflicted upon those who opted to soften themselves before the fires.

I am not focused on trading today, as I deal with day 4 without proper usage of my right leg. I am now incredibly grateful for once having full motion of my right leg and really would prefer if the Gods stopped clowning around with me and permit healing to expedite.

I had gains — but now they’re gone — down 65bps and I’m fully exposed to the perils of risk. I just had to blow out of both ACHR and JOBY for 4-5% losses — who the fuck knows what’s happening in the flying taxi cab space.

Truth is, I am bored of making money so frequently and stacking gains atop of gains without challenge. What am I doing it for? What in the fuck do I get out of it?

Exactly.

Into the close, I’ll attempt to build for tomorrow. My bias is for a continuation of a commodity run — but this trade has been a very stupid one for quite some time now.