Let’s catch you up to speed.
Former French colonies are now called ECOWAS. France prints francs for them pegged to the euro and in return they had to hold 50% of their reserves at the Bank of France. One of those nations was Niger. Last week the Niger govt was toppled by a military dictator, who is pro Russian. PMC Wagner operates in several adjacent African nations and might be assisting the junta in Niger.
Who needs Niger? 90% of Niger is without electricity and is one of the poorest nations on earth.
Well, it just so happens Niger is one of the largest suppliers of Uranium, actually the main supplier to France. Thirty percent of French uranium comes from Niger and they just suspended exports to France after France and other ECOWAS states threatened war. The military junta in Niger had been given a deadline to surrender and allow the western friendly regime take back power.
Spot Uranium
All of this leads to the trade I’m in now: spot 308. Befor this war uranium prices were squeezing higher, because let’s not forget Russia is a major supplier of uranium too. If France cannot get Niger back into its fold, there is going to be a problem in the EU and this might lead to another spike in LNG and coal prices.
It bears repeating, attacks on the new Niger junta are imminent. The way this will play out isn’t clear and I’m thinking a risk premium might be applied, especially if Russia actively supports Niger to fend off western attacks.
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