Ended the Week Iced Cold

I traded like a fucking moron today. I should’ve held my FNGD position and fucked off — but no I had to fall into sand traps and fight all day to just achieve LOWER LOWS. When I am cold like this, I buy when I should sell and I sell when I should buy. I do the opposite of what works and sometimes, being aware of this curse, I attempt to do the opposite of the opposite, but that seems to end up bad too.

In the end, it makes most sense, if I am being honest, to just buy a bunch of shit and sort it out the next trading day. I closed long and hedged with 20% UVIX. For this to work, all I require is WW3.

Perhaps news of a Russian MIG shot down in Kaliningrad, or maybe China will get involved by sinking an aircraft carrier or two. Bottom line: I need this shit to happen by Monday.

Either way, I will sell and start all over again — attempt to regain my balls. I am +1.5% for July and the month is young enough for me to really do a lot in either direction. I must admit to feeling flustered by today, since it was an ATYPTICAL day for me. Nevertheless, I press on and carry about my life with sincere hopes of catastrophe and doom.

HAGW.

I wanted to believe, so I closed out my shorts just about at the session highs and went long some names, keeping 80% cash, and this resulted in me EXTENDING my losses to 1.65% for the session. My knee jerk reaction is to remedy this and over-trade, but it’s probably best I do nothing until later on.

The rally failed and now we’re swimming lower and I was stupid enough to fall for the trap, so I deserve these losses.

Can we rally into the close?

Absolutely not.

On second thought, I might hedge right now.

Which, as you know, as soon as I hedge the market will bottom and my losses increase.

DEVELOPING…

Given the state of the market, which has been bullish as of late, I am cautiously bearish on this final day of the trading week. My positions from yesterday netted a loss this morning and now I sit here with just a 15% weighted FNGD position and cash, down 55bps.

The likelihood of a face ripper is remote and I really don’t have the stomach right now to deal with potential churn, so I’ll accept any losses that could result from holding the FUCK FANG stocks trade.

There are many out there who believe the market has bottomed and it’s smooth sailing from here. Those people are wrong.

The former Prime Minster of Japan Abe was shot in the back last night from what appeared to be a makeshift gun. The last word from officials is Abe was without vitals, not breathing, en route to the hospital.

Fire official in Japan says former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was not breathing, heart stopped while being airlifted to hospital for gunshot wound – AP

Here are some pictures/videos from the scene.

Seconds after Abe Shinzo, the former Japanese PM, was shot.
People are screaming,

"Call an ambulance!"
"Who shot him?!"

The guy on the mic at the end,
"Are there medical experts? Please give us your hand!"#japan #Abe

pic.twitter.com/FDiDKKnXM0

— Limeade JP (@limeade88361563) July 8, 2022

High quality video showing shooting of Shinzo Abe Japanese ex PM @AbeShinzo pic.twitter.com/Lwz9gtS9YA

— Suprmann (@Finance_d0ct0r) July 8, 2022

pic.twitter.com/o1RrJBDXUe

— ??mai?ke?? (@maike809588) July 8, 2022

UPDATES:
Reuters, citing Japanese media: The suspect in the shooting of Shinzo Abe is a former member of the Maritime Self-Defense Force.

The Nasdaq has been higher in 5 of the past 10 Fridays, marking a shift in the market on a day that had been a slam dunk for lower prices. The warmer climes have brought cocaine brains to the forefront, drunk, hedonistic, speculative thinking people without a moral bearing. There is nothing important about what is being said on CNBC — just the typical nonsensical recency bias permanent bullish jargon.

I closed the session higher by 200bps, STRETCHING my YTD gains to +58% in a public portfolio that cannot be debated. I have laid my case in front of all of you but have also given myself enough leeway to change, as any good trader should.

I WILL NOT BEND ON THIS POINT HOWEVER:

Betting on markets heading higher is a bet on globalization and the west. In my opinion, this is a poor bet and the inevitable outcome in this war being waged will be LOWER prices. As a society we are broken — a fractured people by an occupying force who intends to buy your blood. Only sentimentality and older men in America is worth regaling in. Everything else is rot and leadership is non-existent in what appears to be the most substantial shift in power experienced since WW2. Only this time, we are the Axis.

https://youtu.be/l12NQXmJ0JY

There is something to be said about hiding behind Ukrainian soldiers in the manner the west is doing so. They are sending everything they have, equipment, training, resources, intelligence — in an attempt to stop Russia from removing them from their vassal state. Thus far, they have slowed Russia — but the trend is bearish for the west and it is cowardly to continue this proxy war with the western leaders’ bold statements and provocations without actually putting western lives at stake.

In a series of choice comments today, Putin called them out.

PUTIN: WE HEAR THAT THEY WANT TO BEAT US ON THE BATTLEFIELD – WHAT CAN I SAY, LET THEM TRY

PUTIN: RUSSIA HAS NOT STARTED ANYTHING IN EARNEST IN UKRAINE YET

Russian Pres. Putin: We Don’t Reject Peace Talks But ‘The Further It Goes, The Harder It Will Be To Reach Agreement With Us’

PUTIN: WEST IS DEGENERATING INTO TOTALITARIANISM

RUSSIAN PRESIDENT PUTIN: THE COLLECTIVE WEST, LED BY THE U.S., HAS BEEN EXTREMELY AGGRESSIVE TOWARD RUSSIA FOR DECADES

RUSSIAN PRESIDENT PUTIN: SANCTIONS ARE CAUSING US DIFFICULTIES, BUT NOT ON THE SCALE INTENDED

And to cap it off.

PUTIN: WEST HAS FAILED IN NEW ATTEMPT TO CONTAIN RUSSIA

I kept one stock long just in case the rally continued, MOS, and it’s already down 2% from the highs. I hedged it with an FNGD long because the FANG stocks are weak. The bull market isn’t back. These pops are almost always followed by drops. Be patient and let the trades come to you late in the day. The risk to buying early is you risk a reversal. It is rare to see markets up and continue up throughout the entire session. Although we’ve had plenty of fierce rallies in 2022, the highest probability trade has been to be SHORT.

Over in Stocklabs, the last oversold signal has thus far yielded a 12%+ gain in TQQQ. It only flashed once, so my allocation is only a third. This account is dedicated only to the OS signals, +15.5% YTD.

It’s good to see stocks bounce, especially commodities. The reason I sold it simple: best to lock in what is assured than to gamble on uncertainty. At the moment, I am +185bps for the session.

As you readily know, I am long a pastiche of commodity names into this morning’s commodity bonanza, whereby the EMERGENCE of stagflation rears its ugly face again.

Copper is bid +4%, Oil +3%, and Natty +5%.

My game plan is the same everyday: take profits during the first 10 mins of trade and then relax and oversee my profits as they sit quietly in my accounts.

The FREEZE GERMANY trade is on, especially since they only have 2 months of gas in storage and their little tanks are getting blown to pieces in Ukraine. But they of course are not looking to upset the Russians, only kill them. God forbid they might provoke them — Russian gas supplies might halt just in time for the winter months.

You hate to see it.

In other news, the supreme faggot of the UK Boris Johnson stepped down after his entire staff, save the cunt LIZ TRUSS, resigned.

So sad.

Another fizzled rally and yet another cadre of bulls jumping in headlong to the concrete floor. Soon their heads will be bashed apart into pieces and their brains spilling out unto the hot pavement — courtesy of the very gay west and their losing war against Russia.

YOU MIGHT CHOOSE to ignore it but it’s not going away and the losses will become more elaborate and pronounced in the coming months —- as “the west” cucks themselves for NEOCON interests and blood sacrifices.

You may not realize it yet, but this is the opening salvo into another great global war and at the moment we are ill prepared for industrialized warfare.

Markets in the short term ignore these things until it can’t anymore and then we’ll get LARGE GAPS lower. The purpose of my trading now is to preserve my +54% YTD gains, whilst at the same time aim to improve upon them via incremental moves — most easily achieved in market divergences. I am hoping for another spike in energy prices, which could provide a rally in heavily beaten down shares. I will not pretend to understand all of those charts are broken and betting on oil now is most likely a losing bet.

ERGO, ALL BETS WILL BE HEDGED. We are one bad headline away from a down 10% session.

This is not a good reason to rally.

FOMC: “with inflation remaining well above the Committee’s objective, participants remarked that moving to a restrictive stance of policy was required to meet the Committee’s legislative mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability”

But we rally nonetheless, at least for now — because markets want higher. How long this rally will continue remains to be seen. I took some longs in various commodity stocks with only a 5% hedge long UVIX.

I do feeeel the commodity trade could be a trap here and oil might gap down again. Ergo, I won’t go too heavily long and will balance it out with other areas of the market. By the end of the session, my hedges will be 15-25%.