PAX AMERICANA IN FAST DECLINE!

Markets are down today and luckily I dodged the morning bullet and kept a 20bps gain for the session. We are suddenly waiting for and interested in inflation data — because oil has been soaring and our fat hedonistic brainless leaders want war — so the price of things, almost all things, is inexorably at risk of going up.

Ladies and Gents — you might not know it but you should. America is on its last legs as a coherent populous with shared history and culture. I chanced upon a year in review of 1985 a week ago, at that time I was 9. We live in an entirely different world. The immigration policies of this country has assured that by 2045 American’s of European descent aka “the whites” will be a minority at 45%. Whilst to the ordinary non-racist plebeian — this news is benign. After all, you’re not against some diversity and you’re certainly not hateful.

To quote a great man: “well, that’s just like your opinion, man.”

The collapse is 100% assured, partly due to the fact that people no longer want to have babies and are much more interested in having fun and going on watered slides and stuffing their fat fucking faces with pie. They’d prefer to date women well into their 40s and visit concerts and drink beers with their homosexual bachelor friends, and then wake up the next morning and drink juice from the bottle. We are a listless people because our purpose has been annihilated.

Having said that, maybe a great big world war is exactly what we need to cull the herd and wake people up. Perhaps this is just the way things have to be to reset people. You must admit, this is a wholly stupid way to get people to create families and to make interesting things. What if we had a state level effort to promote traditional values? I bet a sense of normalcy would return to a mostly atheistic and gluttonous people. But that’s not part of ZE PLAN!

The country doesn’t belong to you. You simply rent it. The people who own it are changing it and if you don’t like it — well then — go make your own country.

I actually wasn’t bearish today. I even stated as much in an earlier blog. Sure the opening trade was dreadful and I opened up down 2.2%. But throughout the session I bobbed and weaved and traded well, actually. You can tell where there is going.

I held one hedge, a small 5% position in UVIX and didn’t pay it any attention because I was, like I said, trading well and booking profits. But then UVIX dropped 5% from my basis and I thought about what I should do. Normally I’d simply sell it out and forget it. But for some reason I was intrigued by the seemingly nonsensical collapse of volatility. Then again, why should I have been “intrigued” since all VIX does it drop. Nevertheless, I doubled down with an intent of dumping the whole thing on a small market drop.

That never happened.

The losses were now double and the ETF just kept sinking. All this time I kept trading exclusively to the upside and booking small profits, a little here and a little there. Slowly but surely, just like the other day when I did a gazillion trades, I did a gazillion trades today and closed exactly at my session lows. I ended up closing out the UVIX trade for a $15k+ loss.

I’m not mad or even disappointed. It’s just one of those odd things that happens to people and you soon forget about it because it had no bearing on your life whatsoever. In spite of being down 7.5% for August, I am trading well, seeing the market fine — but history will only reflect upon this month in 2023 as a loser for me.

I closed smaller with 42% cash, allocated into more conservative names because the method I need to enact now is slow and steady attempt at redemption for the balance of the month.

Yes of course I fucked my year and I’m not even up 40% anymore — instead +38%. But I don’t care. Perhaps it’s my diet or maybe the knee — but I possess zero emote in this regard and feel, almost mechanically, that all of my recent drawdowns can and will be easily recouped.

Lots of bad news today, such as Moody’s downgrading a bunch of regional banks, Chinese exports to the US collapse, Italy affixing 40% taxes to their banks — etc. The Nasdaq is off by 183, and the US 10 yr straddled at 4.01%.

The breadth is an appalling 35% and VIX is spiking.

All of this would lead me to believe a rally was NOT in fact even remotely possible. There is simply too many reasons to sell, especially since the market has risen so much and we’re in August and only losers are trading a lot now, instead of going on boats to drink seltzer water and look at the fucking fish through the lenses of $400 sunglasses.

But we’ll likely rise anyway — since the new approach to Post modernism is to go towards and gallop into the dumbest of all scenarios. The worse the news is the better. The biggest degenerates are the most celebrated and any semblance of cognitive thinking is eschewed, mocked even, by soulless demons without families or a future.

As a permanent bear, it’s important that we WADE THROUGH IT and resist the temptation to short everything into dust — because odds are the dumbest path will be the one most readily traveled, worn out even.

Have you ever talked to people outside — get a sense of what they’re thinking or listen to their syntax and vocabulary range?

We are most certainly living in the last of Empire Pax Americana. I only wish I can live long enough to see it though and to profit from it — puts on the whole thing — the entire experiment as it bursts and concaves into flames and the savage beast of its populace busts loose like zombie hordes to cannibalize in open fields and prey upon the weak — but regularly offered shotgun bursts of metal into their faces when chanced upon towns of the minute varietal.

Naturally I am entering today without hedges, fully exposed to the horrors of the morning, NASDAQ futs down 120.

Here are the low lights.

ALREADY WEAK ITALY BANKS COLLAPSE pic.twitter.com/pQo428SbGu

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) August 8, 2023

MORNING MELTDOWNS pic.twitter.com/XwFdKWWzS8

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) August 8, 2023

Looks like we have a hard miss out of DICK DOG, which is sending shares of other SAAS plays interminably down into the sewers and beyond. I will face horrid losses at the open, one day removed from having glorious hedges. Alas, this is the story of life — here one second gone the next.

The trend has been to inverse the open, so perhaps we might climb higher today in spite of all of the negativity.

My arrogance and sloppiness produced a loss of 1.59% today, a day which saw the Dow up more than 400 and the Nasdaq +80. All I had to do was buy and own good stocks, keep them, and wait for returns. But instead, as is always the case, I attempted to outsmart everyone else and position for a pivot — which is close to impossible to do on an overnight scale.

If I was truly attempting to seriously time a top — it would be a process that could take months. I’d have to dedicate myself to the thesis and average into positions in the hopes of a meaningless payoff.

Without being too wordy, the simple fact of the matter is — stocks are heading up. You can attempt to time tops and then enjoy drawdowns like me. OR, you can cave in, like me, and just go long and wait out the summer haze and hope for something of a frost to occur this fall.

I’ll just do a data dump of some of the top rated stocks here for various Stocklabs algos.

YTD
BLDR, NVDA, PHM, TPH, ELF, META, IAS, KBH, HUBS, VNT

3MO
VRT, TDC, RCL, BLDR, UPST, DFH, OC, IONQ, LZ, PHM

1MO
TTI, LZ, NE, NEX, NOG, CHX, HTGC, THO, FBP, LBRT

2 WEEKS
AROC, NOG, FBP, CPS, CVBF, LI, PARR, EDU, OVV, LZ

1 WEEK
FBP, MOD, VRT, CPS, LI, AROC, OVV, KALV, CNX, NMRK

Notice anything, you cunts?

I awoke to losses of 1.2% and then proceeded to fuck off. After many decades of chasing stocks and attempting to turn things around, I gave up and let the God’s punish me. I came back and my losses have increased to 1.68%, so I sold the losers. The natural thing to do is to trade like an organ grinder’s monkey — get all of my money back and then come back onto here to my adoring audience and tell them the news. Perhaps I could’ve done it while wearing a red fez and brocade shoes and gilt music box.

Instead, I think I’ll fuck off some more — enjoy my -5.5% losses for August and let the world do without my exquisite market genius for perhaps another day, or maybe even two.

Only oils did well the week which past. Those stocks jumped by 2% — but everything else was dropped into a crevasse. For the month of August, markets are down 3% — which is almost a lot considering the month is usually listless.

I’ll throw out some data via Stocklabs.

If you’re reconnoitering this market in search of treasure — take into consideration that we have, in previous bad summer trading, gone down by 5% before. That seems to be where it sticks the landing.

The losses were innumerable.

Is all lost? Shall we resort to hiding inside our basements or attics? According to the Stocklabs intelligence algos, we should be out there buying and quit being such pussies.

How can I blame the machines? All recent dips have been bought and to think “this time is different” takes courage.

So is it different?

The US 10yr is up above 4% and oil is crushing higher at $82 and gasoline is back to the highs, if that counts for anything. The CEO of PXD said we’ll be printing $100 WTI by Xmas. If so, the FOMC will remain hawkish and hike rates until people start committing suicide.

For me, this drop is an opportunity to get in on a new bear market early, perhaps. They have to begin somewhere. Should markets reverse higher, I’ll simply obey and not in a manner that I did on Friday, when I traded frantically in a flaccid attempt at recovering losses. I will most likely resort of buying stocks at or near 52 week highs and then supplementing those trades with day trades sought by using SL Alpha screener tools, which relays RT movements in all stocks down to a 30 second scale. The way I am able to bag so many day trades is using these tools.

I remain eternally bearish on stocks and look forward to the day when margin calls cut into the bulls like canister grape shot, taking off limbs along the way. The bull class of investor is a very weak and frail group of people and it won’t take much to frighten them back into their tranny penthouses.

It was my second most active trading session since I’ve made my portfolio public back in 2021.

This is what the market did today, way up and then all the way back down.

I had an especially vicious open due to an earnings miss with MTZ down 15% and a 20% weighted UVIX down 10%. I closed both positions out near session lows — not because I enjoy to sell at session lows — but because I lacked the eternal fortitude to hold. Part of my super-presence in the market stems from my malleability, neither hot or cold about anyone thing for too long. My caprices shift with the tide, in spite of my deep desires to see it burn. When things move against me, I tend to avoid conflict and move out of the way. You could argue this is a form of cowardice, not being able to hold firm. On the other hand, financial markets isn’t a battlefield — but instead a parlor where men of industry cavort and set prices for associates businesses. Ego, in my experience, will rack you with losses. At times, ego can and will make you extraordinary rich. I’ve tried almost every method since trading back in the early 90s and found that this method of chaotic shifting works best for me.

I conducted 139 trades today — not out of boredom or desperation — but an attempt to catch lightening in a bottle. There have been times I have done this and turned big down days around. Today was not that day.

Early on I kept hedges on and traded long. And then I towards the end of the day when markets were diving, I took a shot and went 50% short. The portfolio was jumping 10bps per minute and it wasn’t long before I realized I had missed the big move — so I closed most of the shorts out.

But because the market has truly reversed from what analysts said was a ‘Goldilocks’ jobs number, I reapplied some shorts at 30% of my portfolio and then built some longs around it.

I kept 25% cash and consider today a non-event in as far as expectations. When I wrote “done at 9:55” today — I didn’t mean I was done trading per se — but that my chances of reversing my doom was extremely limited to nil. I closed almost exactly where I opened, -3%. I tried my best to make it happen — but for every pop there was a drop and due to my lack of grit in keeping that UVIX position, which not only recovered the losses but went higher by 7% — I stand before you a profound and pathetic loser. Had I fucked off and went to exercise my knees — I’d been up today talking shit about how the American economic experiment since 1776 had ended and there was nothing that you or your stupid friends can do about it. Instead, I am 4% in the hole for August and now forced to trade my way out of a market that is apparently and inexorably unstable in both directions.

I’m finished for the session, more or less. I had taken some “highly correlated” positions into today and got blown the fuck out clean. My hedge was the devil itself via UVIX at 20% and I ordered an appetizer of LABD with it too.

I had an “earnings play” with a great stock MTZ which was Oppenheimer’d for -15% and then I had of course the UVIX down 10% and that’s all she wrote. I blew them all out, grabbed my nuts and took some SOXS and two other piece of shit stocks to pair wonderfully with this shit steak I’m eating and I’m fin.

I’m down 3% for the sesh and that’s pretty much my redline. If I invest heavily now I risk turning 3% into 5% — a blowout too great to be endured.

I’ve had plenty of days, such as this. They’re never enjoyable or nice and they always inhibit the way I see the market, for whatever reason. I go from seeing it perfect to not at all in a day.

Of course everything I’ve done today was wrong. Of course I sold UVIX at the session lows. That’s how it goes when you’re a fucking moron for the day and can’t do anything right.

The diagnosis for me, at least for today, is grim. I’ll need to concoct some real low beta portfolio by end of day for Monday, as now my task is to recover these losses in manner that doesn’t exascerbate them.