The Semis Approach the Cliff

The semis fell anther 1.8% today, on top of the nearly 4% drubbing on Friday. I do not want to reconcile this move as it “being over” but we are fast approaching the pressure point of a mean reversion move higher or rout. For me, the rout option is preferred. Like, if I had a choice where to send the SOX index I’d send it all the way down to hell and lower. The fact that I’d lose vast sums of money would be a secondary concern to me, as I am fixed on presiding over a broken market — being able to at some point convert my Bitcoin back into dollars to acquire assets cheaply.

Nevertheless, do not count on the semis to fall much further. The overall trend is still up.

I closed the session +147bps, 50% cash, 6% $SQQQ and the rest a short list of low beta stocks. My positioning is defensive — since my MTD gains are nearly +4% and I haven’t even traded well. When I enter the zone I want to be in, which can happen at any moment, I expect my YTD gains of +13% to quickly jump into the mid 20s. It might happen this week or next month, or maybe later. But rest assured, my gains will hold and my losses will be minimal and the breakout to come will be obnoxious.