iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
21,892 Blog Posts

GOLD BACK TO BREAKOUT LEVELS ACHIEVED A DECADE AGO: Is this time Different?

I have a few very solid hunches here.

1. Russia is going to invade Ukraine.

2. Oil will spike, alongside potash.

3. Gold will finally get its safe haven status.

4. Stocks will fall.

5. The Fed will not have to tighten too much because stagflation will crush the economy.

6. Treasuries will also receive safe haven status.

It seems the Russians are intent on doing something in the Ukraine, not sure exactly how it happens but it’s likely to occur. If they do not attack Ukraine, then some premium will be removed from Natty and Oil. But that will be transitory.

The other stuff is pretty standard except for gold. Is gold, dare I say, be trying to bust loose here?

Let’s be clear. One does not compare gold to BTC. That’s stupid. Gold has been a terrific safe haven for storing value. There can be no question about it. With Russia steaming towards war and US threatening to hit them with severe sanctions, perhaps gold will somehow play a larger role in Russia? Unsure, other than the fact that Russia owns 7500 tonnes of gold.

This tape is ugly and there are few safe havens, but there has been stabilization in various defensive areas.

The rest of the tape has been chewed up and spit out — completely useless assets other than to gamble with and I can see no valid reasons to buy tech down 50% while posting numbers and sinking another 20-50% on earnings shortfalls.

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Uninvestable Tape — I’m Out

I had a nice blend of VIX and other things working today and at the peak saw my gains at 1.8% and the an array of cross currents took the market all over the place, from shippers to gold to Chinese stocks and to and out of oils. It was too much and because I had gains, mostly thanks to my big position in UVXY — I decided to close it all out, save one oil stock.

With a lull in news, there is a distinct chance we can gun higher intra-day. I would rather not bet on it or against it, so instead I will choose to position for tomorrow.

Plainly, the market WANTS higher, but these news items are in the way. Let’s not even discuss the earnings reports which keep coming out bad. It does not matter. All that matters is the price action after the fact and we are buoyed all the time by tera-cap monopolies. The rhetoric out of Russia is war like, literally.

It seems the market digested it and now is calling Russia’s bluff. It’s 11am and how we end at 4pm is all that matters. For now, I am out.

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RUSSIA EXPELS US AMBASSADOR; FUTURES COLLAPSE

Last night violence broke out in Eastern Ukraine with Russia quickly saying it was Ukraine’s fault and it seems awfully coincidental with Russia soldiers teeming on the border.

The big news this morning is the expulsion US Ambassador from Russia and the likelihood we will now expel the Russian Ambassador. These are typically things that happen before war.

Putin is also in preparation to make a speech to the Russian parliament and the rhetoric on both sides could not be more intense.

Sec Blinken is en route to the UN and then Germany. He knows plenty about Ukraine, being of Ukrainian descent and founder of private equity firm Warburg Pincus. This all has the feeling of being over our heads — a narrative is being played out here that is not what it seems and I can promise you this — our interests in Ukraine have nothing to do with democracy.

NASDAQ futs are -123, not really a big move down considering the drama.

It should be noted, BTC is not behaving defensively but gold is and I would think oil would jimmy higher but it’s not. I do not believe the market is pricing in the gravity of the situation, with VIX up just 7%. This all could be solved easily if NATO would just say “Ukraine cannot join NATO.” But they won’t.

Instead they say this.

Why?

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RIGGED: OIL STOCKS FADED HARD OFF HIGHS, HOUSE FLY AGAIN IN SHAMBLES

I made you a chart to look at. It is GUSH, the leveraged oil stock ETF, which was my fate today. I was long so many oil stocks and ag stocks and gold stocks and military stocks to go with my hedges. I was all loaded up, General Faggot Patton in the PR serving up bombs.

 

To be clear, by 12pm I knew I was cursed. I knew no matter what I did it would go wrong. I could be both long and short at once and both would decline and that’s exactly what happened. Longs down, shorts down and I closed at my session lows -2.1%. Today was even worse than yesterday, a day which I opened -3.5% only to rally back to -1.6%. Today was a larger loss and a more severe loss mentally, since it seemed the market was my shadow and it cursed me at every corner and in every alleyway I looked. I am now down 1% for the year, after blazoning ahead last week +13%. I am also down more than 5% this week and the pit in my stomach is turning tight and I can feel the anxiety and the stress mount — with all of the cross- current news items and wild gyrations in the tape. It’s also worth documenting here, there was news in this oil trade before the news hit, if you know what I mean. ALL DAY the oils were getting hit and it made no sense with WTI +3%. Yet methodically and then all at once, it collapsed on some stupid fucking Iran-nuclear deal to come. No fucking idea what that means — but likely Iranian oil back on the market. Biden seems to love sucking Persian cocks.

What next?

I ended the session a true moron, long 3x UVXY and some SOXL, LABU and MOS, a plainly stupid combination which should amuse you to know ALL CLOSED DOWN for me except MOS — since I bought that 2 mins before the bell.

Today could not have been worse even if I tried. It was so bad, I am thinking about not trading for the rest of the week — because -1% for the year isn’t bad all things considered. But what is bad is my mental state, furious and frustrated at the state of things, prone to error and poor choices.

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Fed Minutes Causes Furious Rally Off the Lows

No idea what’s going on here but scam wicks are everywhere. The news can be construed as flaccid, Fed faggots concerned with asset prices suggests if markets drop they’ll suck our dicks.

Lots of headlines, mostly useless. People just wanted to rally.

In more concerning news is the Russian-Ukraine drama.

Which way do you go? Do you buy into the rally or run from it, scared Russia will attack tonight! LOL — fuck this shit.

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Everything is Sold Down as Russian War Jitters Continues

Just when I thought Russia wasn’t going to attack there are reports the Russians are building a field hospital near Ukraine.

Couple that with the fact that no one can verify actual Russian withdrawal from the area, we have a game of chicken and perhaps deception taking place. Would the Russians really lie about invading Ukraine in such a manner that would make their word useless in the future? I don’t expect them to tell us if they were or not, but perhaps saying nothing would suffice. Maybe a SURPRISE ATTACK when everyone expects it? I don’t see the logic in this anymore. Nevertheless, we have markets on edge and oil and gas prices elevated.

I entered the session +130bps now sit with losses of 70bps after a swift drawdown in my oil stocks. The equity portion of this oil trade isn’t doing as fanciful as the commodity today; hence the drawdown. I would prefer to make money on days when the underlying commodity is up and I understand nothing can go up forever — BUT FOR FUCKS SAKE THROW ME A BONE YOU COCKSUCKING PIECE OF SHIT MARKET!

The White House is non stop with their RUSSIA IS GONNA ATTACK SOON rhetoric and it’s all so very tiring. The war hasn’t even begun and I am fatigued.

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The Era of COVID Lockdowns is Officially Over; $SHOP Plunges

Shares of SHOP are down 17% after posting what appeared to be solid results. But that was’t good enough. The also suggested growth would slow in 2022 due to an end of the COVID era lockdowns.

Year-over-year revenue growth to be lower in the first quarter of 2022 and highest in the fourth quarter of 2022 due to three factors. First, we do not expect the COVID-triggered acceleration of ecommerce in the first half of 2021 from lockdowns and government stimulus to repeat in the first half of 2022. Second, our new terms with apps and theme developers cause two differences from last year’s first quarter: the elimination of Shopify’s rev share on partners’ first million dollars of revenue annually reset on January 1st, and the shift from gross to net revenue recognition for the sale of themes as a result of revised contract terms with our theme partners. Since these terms didn’t come into play until the second half of last year, these will be a headwind to Subscriptions Solutions revenue in the first half of 2022, particularly in the first quarter. And third, we expect certain commercial initiatives and sales and marketing investments will gain momentum over the course of 2022.

We have seen this story play our painfully the past year, as once high flyers come crashing back down to earth. It started with ZM and DOCU and now its hitting the online stores like AMZN, SE, and SHOP. The basis for valuation is simple. What were the pre-covid price to sales and where are they now?

SHOP is now trading 21x sales, even with the stock CUT IN HALF in 2022. In 2018, the shares were valued at 18x. There’s your line in the sand. Another 10-15% lower from here and perhaps a bottom gets put in, providing the economy doesn’t fall apart.

SE is already trading at 2018 valuations and ZM is below it.

The fact normalcy is creeping back into the economy is of course good news and we’d like to see people going out again, eating out, going on trips. I suspect once the lunatics remove all of their restrictions for vaccines — we might see a true revival in GDP. Until then, restrictions are abound and people would rather not shop online anymore. Perhaps they’ve gotten sick of it and want to hide their money under their mattresses? Or, maybe just maybe the wealth effect of runaway stocks and cryptos has truly reversed, given the negative returns, and discretionary income amongst the dumbest people on the planet is now lacking.

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Are Natural Gas Wars or Real Wars Breaking Out in Europe?

I am fairly certain, based upon these comments out of Russia that they do not intend to invade crazily like we feared a short while ago.

If they did, it would suggest a scorched earth stratagem of total war against the west and I doubt they’d want that.

And then there’s this.

RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY SPOKESWOMAN SAYS UNITED STATES IS TRYING TO GRAB EUROPEAN GAS MARKET SHARE FROM RUSSIA – TASS

Since the conflagration with Russia, US shipment of LNG to Europe have soared.

The US supplied 24% (4.2 Bcm) of the EU’s overall LNG imports (17 Bcm in Q1 2021); Russia placed second at 21% (3.7 Bcm); and Qatar was third at 18% (3.1 Bcm)


US LNG SHIPMENTS TO EUROPE

It appears the US, for the first time in 60 years, is the largest exporter of natural gas to Europe and Russia isn’t too happy about this, since this is their bread and butter. The main play for LNG is LNG, but there are many others.

Here’s my LNG watchlist inside Stocklabs.

Bottom line: The economy is the main hangover for stocks now, probably not World War 3. We have bad inflation, a hawkish Fed, and the 30 year mortgage rates above 4% while prices are at record highs. The tightrope we are attempting tp navigate is treacherous and will likely lead to a housing collapse, at some point in the future.

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Markets Explode Higher; Biden Warns Russia

Big rally today because Russia seems to have moderated from their position of attacking Ukraine. Biden came out at 3:30 and warned we financially rape Russia if he attacked our pet Khazar state and offered to engage in military combat if he opted to fuck with any NATO states.

Since I had some hedges and lots of oils, I was entreated to losses of 1.7% and that trend is continuing in the AHs, due to the fact I chose to take an earnings gamble into the AHs and of course…TOST blew up. Toast must be the worst company in America to sink like this, 15% in the AHs — providing a dying industry of Nazi collaborators with software to keep track of their patrons vaccination status.

I added to UVXY before the bell for the sake of averaging down. It’s a high stakes bet; I am however very long in other areas and view it as a hedge.

These past two days I have forsaken my good fortune and given back more than 3% — thanks to being wrong about the direction of the market. Just last week I could not miss — making 12% in a period of turmoil.

My ideas have gravity and they’re mostly well thought out aside from the occasional trade. I cannot accurately predict the actions of nation states but can merely view what is normal and what is different. It is normal to assume peace will continue and that other countries might not choose pain and suffering for their people’s. But then you see things like large military build ups on borders and cannot help but to wonder what is really happening. Is it all a ruse or is it really happening this time?

For me, this is a RARE occasion to place bets. I could very well lose betting this way, heavily long oil/gas and short small caps and long volatility. Should we get a break in inflation, not that we will any time soon, energy stocks will crater and tech might rise terrifically. In a scenario such as that, I could lose 5-7% in a single session. Alas, I trust the Gods won’t harass me in such a manner and merely toss obstacles and toasters in my way towards success. We shall see this evening what the news from Moscow brings.

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BIDEN TO SPEAK AT 3:30 REGARDING UKRAINE

What can this cocksucker possibly say? Perhaps he will tell us again the grave dangers Russia will face for attacking Ukraine, a NON DEMOCRACY, and non member of NATO. Our obligation to Ukraine is 100% grift and corruption and all for malevolent purposes. Perhaps this is merely the talking notes of a Russian spy, or perhaps it’s the opinion of one man based upon countless instances of improprieties. Or maybe the US govt is just misunderstood and it’s way above my pay grade as to why Hunter Biden deserved $83,000 per mo while Daddy was VP.

Either way, how is it our business? Does Empire America help you? Perhaps one could argue without Empire America the dollar would not be reserve status and we could not spend to our heart’s delight on social programs that ruin the fabric of this country. So again, how does Empire America help you?

Nevertheless, we haven’t any say in the matter and we’re all just disgruntled subjects lashing out at our masters. While still legal, I will mock and jeer and denigrate as much as I can.

Biden speaks at 3:30pm. I’m sure that bumbling sack of shit will do wonders for stocks.

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