18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
20,345 Blog Posts

Taking L After L After L After L…

I can’t say this has never happened to me before — because losing streaks are awful. You get loaded up with a bunch of stocks at the same time and you start paring them down one by one and it seems like you just keep booking Ls, when in fact you were wrong on the timing of one group of trades and not the fucking trades themselves.

After my magnificent virus trade victories, I edged into a number of stocks, mostly runners who reported solid earnings in an effort to see some continuation. Most of the time this is a high probability trade — eek out another 3-5% on a stock up big with momentum. Not a big deal. Not happening now, fucked face. All of those stocks are getting lit. Ergo, I sold out of IRBT, just about capping off my recent sojourn into stupidity, for an 8.7% loss, making it my 8th consecutive losing trade.

Very fucking nice.

My Quant is doing fine, up more than 70bps today — invested without emotion and growing without fear.

In my trading account today, 10 of 14 of my stocks are higher, so it’s not all losses. As a matter of fact, I’m up today — but I keep getting forced out of stocks due to breakdowns in price action. Many of those stocks will probably bottom and go higher now — but because I bought them at the wrong price — I lost the right to own it.

There are some names I will double, even triple down on. These stocks are low conviction plays and I’d hate to turn what seemed like a quick profit momo trade into an oversized investment just because I was too stubborn to take the L. Been there and done that.

The moral of the story is to fuck off. I know what you’re thinking: “The Fly has lost it. Had a little juju and now it’s gone with the city of Wuhan.” Well, you’d be wrong to ever think that about me. I have a mind like a fucking computer, constantly learning new shit — able to adapt and crush my enemies in head to head trading combat at any given time. I will overcome this losing streak and once again walk these halls in magnanimous fashion, accompanied by two slaves fanning incense in my wake.

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Anyone Buying SHITCOINS Now?

Bitcoin has thrusted above $10,000 again, streaming a whole new cadre of millennial retards into the fray. Whilst stocks shatter new highs on a regularly basis, these absolute fools are still trying to achieve a 50% drawdown from 2016.

Nothing would please me more than seeing this western finance business shattered to bits and pieces, in spite of being a handsome beneficiary of it; but it’s never going to happen. People like John McAfee personify the SHITCOIN space — absolute clowns who aren’t formidable.

So have fun trading and be sure to fuck yourselves when preparing to offer me a rebuttal.

As for stocks, I am concerned about the linear growth of the coronavirus. It suggests the Chinese haven’t been able to test at scale and it’s much worse than presently understood. And then there’s shit like this to process.

At any rate, I’m watching the oscars with my daughter now, laughing at the charade. I’ll see you fuckers tomorrow.

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Eventually, Everyone Will Blog Again

I started blogging in the early 2000s, first political and then after realizing I hated politics — I did finance. For those of you who were there, 2004-2009 was the peak of the blogging period, especially for finance. You could find wonderful new blogs almost everyday, until Twitter came along and dumbed down the narrative to 180 characters. At first I hated Twitter for destroying an otherwise great medium. It’s important to read and to write and, as humans, to express ourselves. God knows no one likes a complainer in real life — best to relegate it to the blog.

Since the 2016 elections, politics swept thru Twitter and the people in charge of it have expressed their bias. Because so many people are on Twitter now, banning someone is on par with excommunication — a banishing from the public square. It’s a way for them to say “your type isn’t welcomed here.”

A lot of people have shown support for Tyler at Zerohedge since Twitter decided to ban him last week. While his opinions on the markets might not be what mine are, I valued his Twitter account immensely because he shared information that made me a smarter person. It’s nice to laugh and to read inane tweets about people shitting themselves, but every so often I like to be intellectually stimulated. Lucky for the world, Tyler has a blog and on that blog I suspect he will launch a product to replace the headline news medium he generated on Twitter. I will gladly pay for such a service.

Which brings me to my next point. If blogging were a stock, I’d be long in size. All of the social platforms have exercised their demands upon its users and have undergone a process to demonetize and deplatform whoever they do not like. Eventually the people banned, and people who dislike the policies of these companies, will realize the only true way to express themselves freely is by the written word.

Unlike a Twitter account, or an Instagram, or a fucking Youtube account, when you have a website — it is yours. You own it — digital property. No one can kick you off of it and no one can fucking stop you. I think this is the reason why podcasts have become so popular again, a sense of ownership and control over content.

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Do Nothing Friday: Eat a Sandwich

As a matter of fact, I don’t eat bread anymore. I don’t drink any form of alcohol, and I don’t eat sugary snacks. “The Fly” is now an austere man, circumventing life as a minimalist and lifting heavy objects at the gym daily — no longer partaking in unhealthy habits that are the root of ruin. I don’t spend money on things I don’t need and I rarely take outsized risks with my investments. My business, now being just the site and software, is run as a center of profit and not designed to burn cash in order to fuel growth in order to someday sell it to someone else. That sort of model is for someone else.

Everything I just mentioned about my person is the exact opposite of Fly from ten years ago, a person who spent ruinous amounts of dollars on luxury items, made outsized investments designed for clowns, and drank booze and indulged in sweets whenever the fuck he wanted to.

The longer you live the more you realize things. For many of you young punks, you probably have a father figure to teach you these things. I didn’t have any of that and had to learn thru the fires of error. If I could impart anything onto the next generation of investors, it is this.

Avoid the things that are common amongst failed people. While it might not happen to you on the scale that leads to ruin, it is unproductive and will not bring you happiness.

As for markets, nothing to see or do. I sold off some losers and have some cash to invest for next week.

As for the virus, I don’t what to think, other than wow.


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Bond Yields Have CRASHED to the Lows

In early 2016 they got down this low and then roared higher and once again we are here with the 10yr at 1.59%, down 5 bps wondering what it all means. The economy is supposed to be robust and big titted and strong. If it was, would rates be this low? I think not. Then again, profits are real and we’re raking in trillions. Businesses are firing on all cylinders. Monopolies go unchecked and we’re winning trade wars left and right, as our enemies deal with the plague.

Over in Europe, they still have negative rates, quite deep actually. If you have any decent sized account there, you’re paying a negative interest rate to your bank for the pleasure. This all gives me a sickened feeling in my gut, but alas — markets are at record highs and nothing seems able to disrupt it. Plus, and let’s not forget this, the central bankers have finally figured out how to eliminate the business cycle. No more boom-bust, just boom all the time because of excess liquidity.

Nevertheless, I have a mixed bag today, down on the day. Following my sojourn into virus stocks — I haven’t traded too well, aside from nailing the top in TSLA with puts.

I usually got to the gym in the morning, after taking my daughter to school. But today I slept in because her school was canceled and I feel great. I rarely get more than 4 hours sleep these days. About a decade ago, when I was a salamander like financial advisor, sitting poolside taking in the sun, I’d regularly get 7-8hrs per day and I never aged. Word of advice for the young punks reading this now, try to max out your sleep — it really does make a difference.

At any rate, back to work. Since I’m not making any money today I either need to cull some losers or find some winners.

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BEHOLD: The New StockLabs Summary Page

Not finished, obviously. I am curious as to what metric you value and would appreciate some feedback so that I can place said metrics on the summary page. What I have now will stream dynamically, adjusting to price movement, so anything static — like revenues or earnings would be an idiots choice.

Sign up for free access to beta trials here.

Off to the gym.

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No Cocaine: Markets Up But Fizzling — No Dazzle!

Looks like gold is the outperformer again, which is way under-owned by people…by the way. The commodity has held firm this entire run in stocks and is at recent highs. If it could ever get over $1600, it might be something to act upon.

To be honest, today is a big disappointment. Although I’m up and making some money, I expected a lot more — a cocaine rally for the ages. Instead, I get this… milquetoast.

A few IPOs today, including Casper the online mattress co. Call me olde fashioned, but I like to feel the mattress first before buying. And, how do they manage the expenses for shipping a fucking mattress? Seems like a scam.

Coronavirus blah blah blah. Lots of rain here in Cary. The weather is very mild, nearly 70, not missing the snow shoveling days of the northeast.

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Just when you thought markets might’ve topped, after seeing young girls take to Tik Tok to teach a new generation of imbeciles how to trade — the Gods blow cocaine into the faces of trade, by way of China.

China on Thursday announced that it will halve tariffs on hundreds of U.S. goods worth about $75 billion.

Tariffs on some U.S. goods will be cut from 10% to 5%, and from 5% to 2.5% on others, according to a statement from China’s Ministry of Finance. The adjustments will take effect from 1:01 p.m on Feb. 14, it said, without specifying which time zone it was referring to.

The cuts apply to about $75 billion worth of imports from the U.S. that was slapped with tariffs on Sept. 1, 2019, according to a separate statement on the ministry’s website. It was not immediately clear which products are covered.

The statement on the Ministry of Finance website said the move was made in order to “advance the healthy and stable development of China-U.S. trade. ”A separate article on the website noted the cut in tariffs was timed in conjunction with a U.S. decision in January to halve tariffs on Feb. 14 for $120 billion of Chinese goods from 15% to 7.5%.

China said that the next adjustment will depend on how Sino-U.S. trade ties evolve, adding it hopes to work with Washington to completely eliminate all tariff increases.

Not only did the democrats make a mockery of themselves with a failed impeachment gambit, fiasco in Iowa, now Trump is castrating them all by way of gargantuan stock market rallies and trade war wins.

So much winning, I can hardly contain myself. Look at me go.

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Dow Explodes Higher; Tech Stocks Wrecked

I’m through spelling wrecked incorrectly. It’s not only juvenile, but also fucking retarded. All of my stocks save 1 went lower — because tech growth got nailed to the wall, in spite of the Dow rising by nearly 500. Markets like today are most frustrating, but part of the narrative of man — which is to miss out. No one likes to miss out on all of the fun. It leaves a sinking feeling in one’s gut and causes us to make errors. While yesterday’s purchases might look like FOMO from your end, on my end, it was simply normalizing my trading account to its pre-virus conditions.

I’m heavily long SAAS and those stocks got wolloped today, in earnest, because of an earnings miss or two.

Without question, ZEN is heading for $100 and much more than that. In the SAAS sector, two stocks stand out to me most as long term holds: HUBS and ZEN. When they go lower, you should consider buying them.

Towards the end of trading, I bought two biotech stocks — because that’s where the fast money is. Speaking of which, and just to recap, I bought some TSLA puts yesterday at around $35 and sold them at $115. That trade saved my profit and loss today and for that I am eternally grateful to all of those longs out there who got sheered on the altar of Musk.

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Markets Post Big Gains — But Internals are SOFT

SAAS stocks are getting lit up because of PCTY and NEWR. This is partially sad because I own a bunch of fucking SAAS stocks. Good thing I kept some dry powder for average downs. Market is up 50 Nasdaqs, but it feels like it’s down.

Maybe I’m just in the wrong stocks, for today.

Speaking of wrong stocks, TSLA is getting lit up and I actually bought some puts yesterday, my first options trade since 2012. Why did I stop trading options? Long story, but let’s just say it brings out the gambler in me. I had the 2/7 900s — up a cool 220% from basis. Not a bad way to make a living — but I will admit it’s too enticing. If I could make these sort of percentage gains all the time, I’d immerse myself all the time in it and my life would be absolutely miserable. This will be the only options trade I do for the year. Maybe I’ll do one per annum.

As for my other positions, I’ll be a little patient (not too much) and think about buying more if they drop again tomorrow.

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