18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,150 Blog Posts

Bet Against Stocks; Lose Your House

NASDAQ returns by month for 2023, data by Stocklabs.

Jan +10.6%
Feb -0.13%
March +9.2%
April +0.5%
May +7.9%
June +4.6%

What exactly are you waiting for to finally concede that nothing can stop the market from going up? I am talking to myself as much as I am chastising you. It is possible that this is the top. This post in its grande eloquence is the peak of market ignorance and we will all harken by to it later on and expose me for the fool that I am. You can pull it up whilst chewing on some pastrami and show your wife how dumb I was for “telling everyone” to go long just before the market collapsed. What a jackass. KILL HIM!

But seriously, you need to adhere to the laws of motion here and follow the market up.

OR, maybe this is a big scheme of mine to trick you into doing that. Perhaps this post is also a trick or an omen to jinx bulls and cause some sort of karmic reversal. This post, perhaps, can lead to the destruction of the entire world.

So go ahead and get out there — buy some fucking stocks — and snort cocaine and drink some booze. The 4th of July looms and we all have much to celebrate — as this nation has never been better managed or cohesive in the way people just love each other.

I’m +55bps early on, no hedges.

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I Spent the Day in a Circle Jerk

Not really, but figuratively. I did 99 trades for a gain of 20bps. You might think this is wanton waste of time — but I had fun doing it. At this point in the month, given my recent successes, I am simply running out the clock.

I do not need to make money. I do not need to make 10% this month. I do what I want, when I want, and will stop at any time.

I’m not a narcissist or a sociopath — just a normal person with modest desires tweeting and trading for a living.

Plus you have to understand, and this might come as somewhat of a surprise to some of you boomer GOP-retards: American is under foreign occupation and it isn’t China. Decisions are not made for the benefit of Americans — but instead global elite interests who view you and your children as SLAVE-CATTLE. So, we are now hoping for their strategic defeat — not so Americans suffer — but the leadership up top come rolling down in a bloody headless mess.

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Trading is Always Fun and Easy to Do

Ever get your pink levels up to 10,000% and feel like you’re about to get clubbed to death by the market? This feeling is the worst, the pit or knot inside your stomach turns and you’re watching every tick because you bet too big because you’re a greedy son of a bitch.

For the millionth time, I am going to give you ground rules for trading that will reduce your pink levels and keep it fun and easy to do.

These are random rules, in no particular fucking order.

Gravitate towards stocks with 1 or 2% of session highs.
Avoid stocks +500% for the session. Do not even look at them.
Gravitate towards stocks heavily short during rallies.
Gravitate towards stocks within 2% of 52 week highs for overnight holds.
Avoid weighing any one position more than 5% of assets. If doubling down on a trade, max size should be 15% and in that trade your risk must be mitigated by the period of time you are willing to hold it. If the position is large, you must sell it, win, lose or draw, inside a day.
When markets are uncertain, raise cash and/or hedge using 3x ETFs.
If you are 100% long, utilize margin to hedge using ETFs. If you want to be net short whilst long 100%, you’ll need to have a 30% weighting in SQQQQ to get there.
The purpose of hedges should be to make yourself feeeeeel better about risk. When up on hedges, take profits quickly.
Day trades should be plentiful, if you’re ok with taking small gains of 1-2%. If you are waiting for larger day trade gains, you will fail at being a day trade. Stick to swing trades.
Max drawdown on day trade should be 3%. If down 3% in a hedge for a day trade, you can double the size of that position to reduce basis — but that trade must be closed out today.
In choppy markets, holding longs with a hedge is smart. Avoid niche hedges like LABD or FAZ — unless there is specific pressure on those areas.
Identify opening trends over past two weeks and position opens accordingly. If dips are being bought at opens, close hedges and add to longs and vice versa. There will be periods when opens are sold, which is when you should hold hedges and sell longs first.
When lost in a tape, reduce exposure by raising lots of cash. Lots of cash is anything more than 50%.
Avoid stocks with market caps under $1b.
Avoid stocks that trade less than 500,000 shares per day.
Do not chase gap ups on news. News if often sold after the stock jumps on it.
When day trading, focus on stocks moving, not laggards.

I can go on forever. Start following these rules and you too can trade well and be a professional and reduce your pinks levels to bring joy again to your current miserable trading career.

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The more bullish I get the more I feeeeeel I can jinx the rally. I don’t believe in luck or curses, really. Although I do believe people can indicate sentiment shifts via their emotional state, causing some to almost always time the market wrong. This is the whole point of Stocklabs mean reversion overbought oversold algorithms. We measure your pink levels and produce data that proves betting against you is profitable. The irony, for you at least, is you too have access to my algos and simply choose not to believe them.

Early going I had to reshuffle my stocks for things working better today and I’m up 30bps. The market is quick moving so anything can happen.

The one cardinal rule all traders must adhere to these days is to buy all morning dips, no matter what.

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What’s the Fucking Bear Case Now Pal?

I’m sick of waiting around for something bad to happen. This market has gone through all of the worst case scenarios and nothing seems capable to place a hard dent into the faces of those longing stocks in size here. These people are unbelievable and will stop at nothing to get markets back to recourd highs.

I closed FLAT for the session — because anyone can make or lose money on any given day. Try closing flat pal.

I kept my SQQQ short out of sentiment — hoping and if I was religious I’d be praying for a great calamity to strike this evening to send equities lower.

I have friends in the business and they’re all very happy — making more money than me — gay and fat and slow — but making more money than me. I ask myself “do these people deserve to make all of that money?” Now, I am not jealous and really couldn’t care less if they have more money than me. BUT, do they deserve it is the question I grapple with. Some of these people are basically evil — definitely not deserving of winning on the scale they’re winning now.

So how do we stop them?

We basically cannot. There is nothing that stops these degenerates from making all cash offers on NYC apartments and beach homes in the Hamptons. The only thing that can stop them, from my vantage point, is a nuclear war. And then I ask myself “would you like to have a nuclear war in order to stop them?” After careful deliberation, I discard the question as null and void since nuclear bombs do not exist.

Along that train of thought, I am looking forward to Nolan’s Oppenheimer movie next month. It should make for a fine backdrop on the precipice of WW3.

My best sense here is for higher prices. We had a Stocklabs mean reversion oversold on Friday and lo and behold we ripped fucking tits today. I am sorry fellow bearsshitters — but it appears you’re about to get routed once again.

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July Will Be Up

Happy trading day, Fucked Faces.

It appears we have a seasonal grift to deal with, in the way of the inevitable COLLAPSE we all crave. Look at the seasonal chicanery of the SPY in July.

All of this data, alongside much more, is available inside Stocklabs.

Because of this trend, as unfortunate as it is, I am mentally prepared to be very bullish. I might even pretend to enjoy it.

I am +33bps today, heavily hedged SHORT the QQQ’s — up only because I am a good trader and understand my limitations and capabilities. Into the close, I am hoping for a downside reversal and that’s not just wishful thinking. I am hoping I can piece meal sell my longs, at the same time retaining my shorts, and turn today into a very fine session for me.

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I’ve Been Waiting for the End of Western Finance My Entire Life

I was introduced to the stock market during the crash of 1987. I remember looking at the Ny Daily News cover and was mesmerized by it and then was scared to death because a roach was crawling up my stomach. This was of course part and parcel of growing up in a crowded housing tenement, with mice and roaches running all about in search of bounty. Ever since that fond childhood moment I wanted the market to implode.

For a brief period, after I became a stockbroker in the late 90s, I wanted stocks to trade up. That was during the dot com era and I was a new broker without any money or know how to sell short. Naturally for my own good I wanted stocks to increase and so I kept buying and buying even after the market had blown up, taking me with it.

That was the last time I was fooled, tricked even. I was fully prepared and expecting the chicanery of 2008 and if you have time on your hands, you can search my archives here for proof.

Ever since the glory of 2008, I’ve been eagerly waiting for the bear to return, but this time to finish off western finance for good. I suppose HARD MONEY fools have their own gambit relating to their fetish with gold; but I don’t have any interest in fixing the economy.

I dream of a Mad Max dystopian hellscape whereby I can maraud about the countryside as a warlord, granting gifts upon the serfs living on my fiefdom. Whilst some of you might believe this is a pie in the sky delusion, I can assure you that there is a greater chance of it happening than say me winning the lotto and living happily ever after.

I only tell you this so you can understand my struggle, forced to buy stocks and pretend to like AAPL. It’s very hard for me and when markets drop a little, I have a tendency to get eager, as you could imagine — harkening back to the halcyon days of little Fly cavorting inside his housing tenement, learning about the 1987 stock market crash alongside his pet roach.

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Potential to Cascade Lower Exists

I got today wrong and lost 1.12%. In fairness to me, I wasn’t really trading much today and just sort of poked at the market without much thought. I do prefer to be backed into a corner and all of my recent successes called into question — permitting me to prove my worth once again. The very best version of myself is one that is miserable, in a slump, and grim.

The past two weeks I’ve been somewhat content — in spite of the leaders in my country attempting to drag American boys into a slavic conflict. To be clear once again for those reading: Fuck NATO and fuck the GLOBOHOMO and to hell with Ukraine. That said, I do not want the war to persist and would much prefer young boys over there had a chance to love and live than fight for the benefit of the homosexuals in DC.

I hedged at the end of the day via SQQQ and UVIX at 30% of assets, which is basically net short. I do believe the close was bad enough to warrant some sort of risk off, especially since we’ve recently gone up and up without much news and we are a nation filled with demons deserving of a much lower S&P 500.

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Breadth is Too High for Collapse

Fuck — we’ll just have to take what we can. I have no shorts at the moment and rather enjoy this long oil trade. I will tell you my vision now.

By August of 2023 the war in Ukraine will be at its worst state for the pride parade folks in Brussels. Then it will dawn on people that perhaps this time Europe can and will freeze. The Russian gas will be in short supply and the odds of a nice and balmy winter is remote. This will cause a panic — as European catamites struggle to fill their inventory to prepare for the winter to come.

Gas and oil prices will soar, all the while people begin to worry about the SPECTER of another inflation scare. This will in fact zero bid stocks and most of the bulls you see now will be skinned alive and tossed carelessly into boiling vats of oil.

The trade will be SHORT EQUITIES, LONG OIL and we’ll all be better for it.

As for today, it appears markets don’t want to believe in my grim tales and have instead opted to invested in homosexual tech companies. My entire life has been filled with choosing between my passion and what’s the right thing to do. Once again, I must follow my brain and invest long — since the time isn’t right to jump ship and swing merrily in the fiery waters of vengeance.

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Can We Get a Co-Fucking-Llapse Already?

The Russian saga ended without much bloodshed. If you look at it from a Warlord/Tsar point of view, everyone who was involved in the coup has to, at some point, be skinned alive OR participate in a suicidal mission for the state. The homos from SLAVA UKRAINE-TWITTER are elated because they believe the Wagner forces will “melt away” with weapons into the ether. This of course isn’t even a remote possibility. What is likely to occur is the Wagner people are going to spearhead another adventure deep into Ukrainian clay. They bob and weave from all of those HIMARS rockets and land themselves firmly inside Kiev.

Markets tricked me this morning and I’m now down 72bps. I haven’t been trading much — just sort of sitting around and waiting for the market to collapse.

Reasons for collapse?

Why bother? Let’s just wait for it to happen.

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