PUTIN REJECTS BIDEN SUMMIT; RUSSIAN STOCKS CRASH

Last night when the fake news announced Biden would in fact meet with Putin, blue checked twitter ejaculated all over themselves — declaring Biden to be a “master statesman” in defeating the very weak and feeble Putin.

I am so grateful Joe Biden is President right now.

— Jack Cocchiarella (@JDCocchiarella) February 21, 2022

President Biden’s steadfast broadcasting of Putin’s every move might be one of the savviest war-avoidance moves made by a president in a generation.

— Jon Cooper (@joncoopertweets) February 20, 2022

The Biden strategy is working. Putin seems perplexed: his false flag pretexts for invasion? Exposed! NATO? Increasingly unified! Ukraine? Determined and resilient! Not too late for Putin to withdraw, and be happy to survive the crisis he created.

— Wes Clark (@GeneralClark) February 20, 2022

President Biden has done a masterful job at consistently tripping Putin up by publicizing intelligence, in almost real time, as the United States gathers it.

— Aaron Parnas (@AaronParnas) February 21, 2022

Putin is fully aware the US Intel Community is the best in the world. Ever. The US collection is exquisite, deep, and without gaps, especially on Putin and his universe. He was not prepared, however, for how aggressive the US would be in sharing our collection to the world.

— William Evanina (@BillEvanina) February 21, 2022

This arrogance might not spill into today’s twitter stream, as Putin flatly rejected a meeting with Biden, saying it was “premature.” The pressing matter, naturally, is to invade Ukraine. They’ve jimmied up enough hype where the separatist groups are begging for assistance. Russia also claims to have destroyed two Ukrainian vehicles and taken a POW. This is denied by Ukraine. It’s hard to believe Ukraine would provoke Russia now and provide them with pretext to invade. Then again, its fucking Foreign Minister went on 60 mins last night and smugly said his country insists on joining NATO.

UKRAINIAN FOREIGN MINISTER SAYS THEY STILL WANT NATO MEMBERSHIP pic.twitter.com/X04ZeAPt7N

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) February 21, 2022

And now we see Chechen units STEAMING TOWARDS Ukraine.

CONVOY OF CHECHEN TROOPS HEADING TOWARDS UKRAINE pic.twitter.com/q50b8NOndM

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) February 21, 2022

The consensus is the same now as it was last month: War, gentlemen.

The Blue Checkers are going to be livid when their little make believe democratic play country squeaky toy taken away from them.

European markets have Mcplunged lower by 2%, the Russian MOEX -10.5% and US futures are enjoying a -233 NASDAQS in the futures markets — with natty +6.5%.

Macron did it again. He brokered a summit between Biden and Putin TBD to get us out of this quagmire, all of those vaccine headaches are about to go away once Biden, the master statesman he is, negotiates circles around Putin and is declared the winner of the world for averted a world war that was so heavily hyped every 10 mins by US intelligence agencies.

Macron Proposed Putin-Biden Summit, Accepted by Both Sides: AFP

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 21, 2022

Once he nails this down, Biden might very go down as one of the best Presidents in US history, all but assuring him a 2nd term and grande statue in DC.

I should’ve seen this coming — expertly crafted message of doom for weeks to finally come to a head vis a vie an all important summit where the US delegation, led by President Biden, signs a peace treaty with Putin, ensuring Ukraine fucks off for eternity and never gets a chance to join the very cool and stylish NATO club. Once this is signed, bullish traders will ejaculate with joy all over the bears — futures STEAMING higher in celebration of world peace and American greatness.

If he fails, however, I am almost certain US intelligence agencies will alert us to the fact that a Russian invasion is all but a foregone conclusion.

We ought to just appoint John Bolton special envoy to Russia and send him there to declare war on them. We could institute a draft and conscript 30 million American Zoomers and then send them into the meat grinder of Europe to duke it out with Russia over our dear and beloved friends, The Fucking Ukrainians. We haven’t had friends this good since The Fucking Kurds in Iraq.

NASDAQ futs are down 160 and natural gas is +5%, after Germany said Russia might use natty to wreak havoc upon the European economies and freeze them to death.

It’s important to remember that the main gripe Russia has with Ukraine is US meddling in their ancient lands. I am somewhat mixed in that statement since on one hand it implies we should cower to Russia and do their bidding. But on the other, let’s be reasonable about Kiev — it’s their fucking ancient capitol. The idea of having Ukraine in NATO and then placing our tranny Cherry Marine brigades there, teaching CRT to the Ukrainian children and, outlawing the Russian language is enough to start a world war, isn’t it? If it came down to it and we started a war with Russia, I’d have no choice but to cease shitting on our govt in favor of Moscow — because there’s nothing worse than a countryman siding with the enemy in a time of war. True, they are not my enemy per se. But how different would I be than say Jane Fonda during the Vietnam war who defiled this country because she was a communist sympathizer? I get it — our wars are more than wrong — bordering on evil. But short of having a Freedom Truck rally in DC, I see no end in this malevolent vicious cycle and I was born here for good and for worse — so at some point I’ll likely die in a designer mushroom cloud of vengeance — whilst listening to some degenerate rap song blasting in the background amidst looting and BLM riots.

If you’re net short, don’t get too excited until you start to see mechanized units spilling into Ukraine. If that happens, the knee-jerk will be sharply lower, but I would cover into that dump because if the war is short and our response nil — than this will be viewed as an isolated/unfortunate incident that likely only affects energy markets in the near term. I wouldn’t view it as a reason to get long, but perhaps a reason to cover on the news.

Longer term, sanctions on Russia will have a profound effect on oil prices, no matter how much we cajole The House of Saud to pump more. One way we could possibly offset lack of Russian crude is global recession/expanding energy exploration at home — via loosening of EPA regulations on deep water drilling and frackers. Both RIG and SLCA come to mind; but I would not gamble too heavily on that with Fucked Face Jim Biden at the helm, sleeping all the way towards that wall we’re about to smash into.

I am watching BTC-ETH as a proxy for risk since markets are closed here in America to celebrate racist Presidents whose statues are soon to be removed and donated to black colleges so that they could be re-purposed to create wonderful Elephantine sized George Floyd tributes.

The news up until an hour ago has been grim, with a sharp acceleration in attacks from Russian separatists into Ukraine. Two Ukrainian soldiers died last night and Russian mobilization continues to ebb towards war — with many vehicles now marked with the letter “Z”. Typically this is done during combat so friendlies can be identified easily.

1600 CEASE FIRE VIOLATIONS TODAY — RAMP pic.twitter.com/FjthZbVpyf

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) February 20, 2022

3KM FROM UKRAINE BORDERpic.twitter.com/hVcgwpicMH

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) February 19, 2022

The notion of talks is constructive, but I would not get too excited about them. Just today UK’s Truss said Putin would look to annex NATO’s Baltic allies next.

TRUSS: PUTIN MIGHT LOOK TO ANNEXATION OF NATO BALTIC STATES AFTER UKRAINE *

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) February 20, 2022

The idea of that is gruesome, since it would mean Ukraine is to Czechoslovakia what Latvia is to Poland, ushering in WW3 for the final showdown with Russia. This is of course what the Neo-liberal and Neo-conservatives wanted all along, spill blood in order to capture Mother Russia. It’s all so tiring and most of us just want to eat a sandwich, demand Netflix stops putting out shitty content, and play some golf/tennis. None of us give a fuck about Russia and their designs to “meddle” in our sacred elections or the fate of Hunter Biden’s slush fund inside Kiev. Fuck you — I am not spelling it “Kyiv.”

At any rate, BTC isn’t really moving on the peace talk news — but we can still hope for the best before markets open on Tuesday. Asian and European trade will be the best proxies after BTC-ETH tonight.

In the Summer of 2020, we were locked down and yet enjoying the full zest of markets — all provided by Federal governments in their attempts to avoid collapse. They printed more than ever, and since we were bored and some of us scared, we didn’t say a word in protest. Why should we? Stocks had risen and the advent of the SPAC was upon us, an asset class that had tried and failed innumerable times throughout history — but this time was different because they were led by quasi famous people who had lots of money and prior success. We bathed in their splendor and then took upon new people on Twitter, or Reddit, who also enjoyed wanton success. We were going to be those people too.

And then we were all going to space. Virgin Galactic, Space X, and Blue Origin were a few of many space companies that were going to extend the inquisitive reach of people out into the heavens, creating endless opportunities for humans and exploring the wonders we’ve always seen in movies.

SPCE

I recall very vividly wording some things out loud, along the lines of “maybe they just need to get people out of the way? Maybe we as a global society are on the way to reach new levels of innovation which was unthinkable 20 years ago and maybe things are about to get very very good.”

That was the top, February 2021 when things crested and the Chamaths of the world slipped by the way side back into their sewer holes leaving the rest of us without gurus to fend for ourselves. It was the best of times, trading at night long past the market’s close because rippers were on the move and we could not afford not to partake. There was a period of time when I’d wake up at 4am just to sell an array of rippers up 30%+, go back to sleep, and start the process all over again in the regular session. It was impossible to lose money and gains of 10% daily were very common. It felt good because it was good. The people who were left behind and angry at the world for entering a paradigm shift were relics, to be mocked and quarantined.

I’ve been down this road before, got my series 7 license in 1997 and traded through all of the crashes and the booms and the crashes again. I even wrote two short books about it. It always feels different — because humans want to be lied to. It’s not that we purposely want to be deceived per se, but we willingly acquiesce to fallacy over reason and logic in favor of ideals. We want and need purpose and sometimes it comes in the form of a lotto ticket, NFT, crypto, trip to the racetrack or casino. We believe, a least some of us do, that becoming extraordinarily wealthy is the answer to happiness, when in fact it’s not; but the glamor of it all is enough to risk freedoms and families and everything that is truly sacred because, in the end, we are all going to die.

So as we race against time chasing down our dreams just beyond our reach, fallacies are revealed and the truth always renders itself to be obstinate. Here we are in the throes of crisis again, stocks beclowned and traders in ruins. The shiny veneer of innovation and paradigm shifts now look like childish dreams of an overstimulated teenager, but that’s only because the adrenaline and dopamine have stopped pumping into our brains and the dark and sinister nature of some people are laid bare once again — shattering the future we were supposed to have.

I almost don’t want to do this blog. Let me review what happened.

First headlines, in order from morning until recent.

DONETSK BEING EVACUATED OF CIVILIANS

The US has obtained intelligence suggesting that Russia’s claim of pulling back forces earlier this week was deliberate disinformation designed to make the West think they were de escalating while moving more forces toward the border – CNN

Russian President Putin says sees ‘deterioration of situation’ in eastern Ukraine:

PUTIN ORDERS EMERGENCIES MINISTER TO GO TO ROSTOV REGION ON BORDER WITH UKRAINE – IFAX

PUTIN ORDERS MINISTER TO ORGANISE SHELTER FOR RESIDENTS FROM DONBASS – RIA

RUSSIA’S RIA NEWS AGENCY REPORTS LARGE EXPLOSION IN THE CENTRE OF SEPARATIST-HELD CITY OF DONETSK IN EAST UKRAINE

DPR and LPR leadership have refused Kiev’s offer to hold an extra session of the Trilateral Contact Group: Russia, Ukraine and the OSCE – RT

Men from 18 to 55 years old banned from leaving the territories controlled by the LPR and DPR.

169,000-190,000 Russian troops in and near Ukraine compared with around 100,000 on Jan. 30, U.S. envoy to OSCE says. “This is the most significant military mobilization in Europe since the Second World War.”

SEPARATISTS IN SELF-PROCLAIMED DONETSK REPUBLIC IN EAST UKRAINE: WE INTEND TO EVACUATE APPROXIMATELY 700,000 PEOPLE TO RUSSIA.

U.S. OFFICIALS WARN OF IMMINENT RUSSIAN INVASION OF UKRAINE WITH TANKS, FIGHTER JETS, CYBER: DJ

RUSSIAN COMMUNIST PARTY LEADER ZYUGANOV: PUTIN WILL ANNOUNCE AN IMPORTANT DECISION ON DONBAS ON FEBRUARY 20

Head of LPR says “I call every male person able to carry arms, to take arms”

PUTIN CALLS FOR MILITARY RESERVE FORCES TO UNDERGO TRAINING WITH A DECREE TONIGHT – DOCUMENT RELEASED BY THE UKRANIAN MEDIA

SENIOR US ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: PUTIN’S DECISION TO OVERSEE NUCLEAR DRILLS ON SATURDAY IS AN ESCALATORY STEP

SIR —

Why did you buy stocks?

I entered the session in perfect form — closed em all out by 9:45 +40bps and feeling fine. Then the market started to rally. You fucking saw it. Stocks like AFRM were ramping and I got hooked first early and did ok — took small gains out into what was a much larger rally than I expected. As it kept lurking and my losses increasing due to my UVXY and SQQQ positions, I added beta and it got fucking HAMMERED when markets finally reversed lower. Instead of what would’ve been a fine day, up between maybe 30-50bps, I closed DOWN 108bps, off by 5.5% for the week. There is no excuse for this, as I broke every trading rule known to mankind. I was just looking, I was just looking, for a small window of opportune, Sir. I did not mean to do it — but I did. And now I closed the day hating the market and hating all of you, even though I don’t know you. I hate it all and I need to stop this shit because, well, it’s gonna kill me.

Back to my worldview.

Of course it makes no sense to fucking rally into WW3. I don’t even want to debate something that hasn’t happened. I don’t disagree with anyone’s ideas if they are rooted in logic. My logic is this: Russia is flooding markets with oil ahead of sanctions. Russia is gearing up for what seems to be a much larger war than just Ukraine. Why are they calling up reserves? That’s millions of men. In all, I don’t know. It’s funny — because it’s so fucking stupid and I hate this era with all of my guts.

Nevertheless, I am -1.4% YTD and I am better than that. BTW: If you think I am just full of myself I am not. I’m not very good at many things. I can’t even fix a car. But I can trade and make macro calls and I have always managed to trade my way out of messes.

I am long treasuries, volatility, short NASDAQ, long oils, coal, and for fuck’s sake SHOP and NVDA, 23% cash. I win when cannon fire erupts from the Black Sea.

Yeah have a good fucking weekend too. Hopefully we’re all alive by Tuesday.

The news from Ukraine is getting grimmer by the minutes. Separatists are refusing to negotiate with the Ukraine govt unless concrete proposals are on the table. Evacuations of as much as 700,000 people are underway. Putin will give a speech on Sunday regarding what to do with Donbas. Biden is talking at 4pm. As the moment, there is artillery fire underway in Eastern Ukraine and the situation only seems to be escalating.

At the same time, both natty and oil are stable, nothing in their prices suggests a supply shock. Is this Russia dumping crude on the market in lieu of sanctions to come? No idea. Numerous stocks from many industries are rallying off the lows and gaining momentum and it begs the question: Is the market taking this threat seriously?

Another one: Do you want to be long into the weekend with this threat looming?

The answer is probably in the middle somewhere. On one hand, any non WW3 news might stoke stocks and propel a fierce rally. On the other, the based on current trends, it seems those fucks are heading for war. Aside from Putin’s words, is there any evidence to the contrary? I believe there are as much as 190,000 Russian soldiers at or near the border.

At any rate, I’ve seen crazier shit happen and rallies occur in the depths of the worst economic news known to mankind, so it’s anyone’s guess what stocks do on a day by day basis, let alone intraday.

At 2:20pm the market is rallying. Do you think we run to the close and end green in what could potentially be catastrophic news, geopolitically?

Let’s see.

The retestoors always get their way. It’s a mental illness with them, always needing to revisit previous lows in order to “test” them. This process has always played out and the way it works is as simple as it is childish.

Choose a level to crash to and then rally. After said rally point to previous lows as a level to “test.” Upon manifesting this, either two things happen next.

1. We pass the test.
2. We fail the test.

If we pass it, we go higher.

If we fail it, we tank.

Sounds stupid?

Because it is.

We seem to be rallying OFF THE LOWS and the fact this is occurring is offering courage to those who are afraid of the retest. However, and this goes without saying, Russia aside, earnings have been fairly abysmal and the post earnings drops catastrophic. That said, maybe it’s already priced in? Let’s see.

For me, not exposing myself either way. The oil trade is not behaving right and pretty much everything is on edge, with little consistency amongst asset classes. What I mean is, yes there are small pockets of defensive stocks holding up — dividend payers. But the war trade in the traditional sense has also been dislodged and the oil markets are behaving like Russia is flooding it with crude, ahead of potential sanctions.

Let’s be perfectly clear about something. It is not an illusion that Russia has 150,000 soldiers on the Ukraine border and it’s not pretend that the soldiers in Belarus and surrounding areas are in staging formations for an attack on Ukraine. It is not “fake news” that Russia has moved more than 50% of his eastern district military units to the west for “training exercises” and it is not a fiction to see violence ebbing up in Eastern Ukraine, followed up with a coincidental appeal for independence.

It is also not imaginary that sirens are going off in Donetsk to evacuate civilians in the area.

DONETSK BEING EVACUATED OF CIVILIANS pic.twitter.com/VR8DFiJ3DR

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) February 18, 2022

Markets were supposed to gap up on news the US-Russia would meet for talks next week; but here we are barreling lower on all this non-imaginary news.

People are so psyoped due to years of fake news and misinformation that they do not believe things, even when they see it with their own eyes. This doesn’t mean Russia will 100% invade Ukraine and that the worst case scenario will play out. However, I think it’s worth bearing in mind that it’s possible. Don’t take people at their word, even the holier than thou Putin, whom people only like because he appears to be a straight shooters and doesn’t ascribe to lunatic levels of western wokeness. At the end of the day, he is a leader of Russia, not the world, and he is only looking out for the best interests of Russians, not retards from Nebraska angry at the Democrats, wanting Hillary Clinton in jail..

Sir —

If I am disintegrated tonight amidst Russian mushroom clouds of joy, I’d like to tell you its been an honor coming here blogging like the wind all these days. We have been through a lot and I am sooooooo happy to have quit my 7 fig money management gig in favor of this — an ad-less site sparsely visited, software platform filled with degenerates. This is the life.

As we heave and ebb towards perdition, I have given you everything I have. Whether that’s of value to you is subjective and my style isn’t for everyone, especially day trader Fly with an attention span of 10 mins. However, I would like to highlight a salient point in all this geopolitical melodrama, we are entirely, as a nation, to blame. No sense is beating ourselves up about it now as we will soon be forced into allegiance and observant of the weaklings who’ve gotten us here and placed in a position of serfdom — ancient rituals for ancient folks. The game is always the same and I apologize for being cryptic — but I like my bank and I want to keep it.

I closed the session +100bps, off from the highs but still solid. I am short banks, long volatility, long oils, gold and even 1 biotech with 38% cash reserves.

Now I must admit to you I am a bit of a pessimist. It’s something I picked up young, a defense mechanism that keeps me from being let down and disappointed. But at the same time, I can honestly tell you beneath all of the hubris and the shit-talking and inappropriate behavior, I am incredibly empathetic and must tell you I do not want to see people die. War is a horrible business and I hope I am wrong about reading the tea leaves and I hope I lose money on my positioning if it means people didn’t have to die in combat.

Alas, this is the nature of man — the evolutionary spirit that binds us to violence and forces us to resolve differences through kinetic means.

Tomorrow is Friday so of course we are already facing a steep hill to climb. The only news that could be viewed as positive tonight is an acceptance between Russia and the US to a summit, to discuss the recent events over a nice cold bowl of borscht.