Markets Win No Matter What

We are sort of in a win win scenario with rates, given the backdrop of the ECB already cutting. If we cut we accelerate, particularly with companies with high debt burdens, such as builders and industrials. If we don’t, financial shenanigans ensue with a potential Euro Dollar carry trade.

You might find it incredulous to believe, but markets appear to be heading higher no matter what.

Today we have the US 10yr cascading lower by 16bps, which is providing succor to an otherwise bedraggled homebuilder sector. We are also seeing commodities shoot up and a general contentment sweeping Wall, although limited to just 61% of stocks higher.

As for me, I have been BOGGED DOWN in attempting to extricate any gains from $GME. Shortly after getting my face pummeled in for a 7% loss, I bought the stock back substantially higher, but with only 1% of assets with the intent to use dips to buy. Almost immediately, the stock tanked again, as if it were waiting for me to get in. I added another 1% to the position and it has tanked ever since then, providing me with a unrealized loss of 6.5%. I should be buying another 1% but my gains have collapsed to just 1.3% for the session.

Although appreciative to make money, this is underperformance largess and it would behoove me to risk too much whilst pink levels are elevated and the perspiration builds above my furrowed brow.

I have about 36% cash and will allocate it long into the close.

I had it all figured out. I was long a pastiche of real high beta stocks into what I assumed was a layup CPI number. I nailed it and markets jumped the fuck higher and I rejoiced by way of selling all of my positions. I say atop a throne of trophies up 200bps, smug and condescending to all of the plebeians down below.

Then I saw $GME and remembered they had $4b in cash and the stock was heading up, so I stepped in and bought some. Immediately, the fucking stock careened lower in a frenzied manner and 15 mins later I booked a 7% loss, placing my gains down to just 1.52% for the session. Now I have the unenviable task of getting back those 50bps because fuck you. I am, however, reticent to step in too large with the NASDAQ up over 300. My fear, if being honest, is that I won’t get them back and that makes me feel like my insides are being twisted and turned.

I’m not mad at $GME, per se, as I am the one who timed it wrong and lost the right to hold it. I have a simple rule and I abide by it. If I buy a stock and it sinks below my mental stop loss, I must forfeit it. I will not wait 10 mins or see if it’ll turn up later. That’s how a down 7% turns into a down 10% and then a down 15%. I simply fucked up and do not deserve to own the shares.

All else equal, I like the market here and I really do like the $GME story with $4b in cash and a $9b market cap. There are all sorts of potentialities abound.

The bears are about to have their tits ripped from their bodies. Even the $GME longs should make some money.

What we saw today was an excellent demonstration of short seller ineptitude. They lack the resilience and the staying power to press their rights; ergo, and this goes without saying, they will be dispatched soon.

The Gamestop jump of 22% is representative of a much larger risk on narrative being played out here and many stocks that have large short interests also jumped. There is a palpable fear amongst the professional short sellers that their cocks will soon be cleaved off by a gaggle of incels who posted memes on the faggotry forum known as Reddit.

Once upon a time I was an admin on Wall Street Bets and was BANNED from the fucking site after exerting my powers in a way that was viewed to be hostile to the community. Out of many genres of persons online, the WSB crowd on Reddit could very well people the type of person that I hate the most. If provided with ample and sweeping powers, I’d have them all arrested, tried, and exiled to Africa to have their skulls crushed in by natives who’d believe gold bars were stowed away in them.

Good day.

We have like 6 or 7 good up stocks today: $AAPL $PLTR $ARM $FSLR $ILMN and maybe $RDDT. Coming off the sugar high of meme mania, which presides over a large cadre of tranny Reddit users getting zeroed the fuck out in the stock exchange, we have some apathy here. However bored you might be, bear in mind we are still in a bull tape and these dips, although annoying, are good.

As such, I am in a constant state of bullishness and would prefer for my rewards to be expedited so that I could do a real fuck you post, casting aside my enemies as if they were crumbs at the edge of a table.

SAAS stocks are up, which is the largest component of tech, so the rally to come is just a matter of waiting around and finally seeing it happen now.

This is the last notion of negativity coming out of me in regards to $GME. If you peered deep into my soul you’d find I want $GME to pop and all of you fucking morons make swaths of cold hard cash. I’d like to see you in stretched out limousines smoking cubans and telling people to ‘fuck off’ when approaching you for autographs. My apprehension about the stock has less to do about the stock itself but the stock operator and the ramifications of being early or wrong and how it might affect the poors.

It’s important to remind you of these things every so often, as your attention spans are weak, just like your stock picking prowess.

Early going we have strong pin action in $AAPL and we are seeing some action in meme stocks, notable $GME. But the overall tenor of the tape is down and we’re all just sitting around now waiting for the stock Gods to bestow its blessings unto us.

Godspeed.

It’s very possible I am setting myself up for disappointment, bullish into a tight Fed based off a theory of Euro Dollar carry trade potentialities. Nevertheless, in a boring tape we must amuse ourselves and I haven’t been able to amuse myself via profits recently, gaining just 22bps for the session compared to +163bps for my quant and +88bps for my longer term account.

I can conjured up ideas as to why I suck and think about routines to help myself think differently, in order to get back on track. But the only thing that works is to study the tape and try to find correlations and attempt to anticipate future movements in a manner that doesn’t place myself in danger.

Focusing on a particular sector can do two things: lead to underperformance or overperformance. When in squall, it’s best to diversify equally just to ride the coattails of a trending market, which we are in. You lose if the trend stalls and tanks lower. God forbid that should happen now; I might be rather upset at the specter of it all.

At the opening tick this morning, the Russell traded lower by more than 1% and it closed up 0.15% with a massive move in crude. If you timed it right, you made more than 1% today.

Semis and industrials were standouts, an overall all American bull market vibe.

The worst part of the Roaring Kitty story is that he’s micro fixating on a really bad company with a really bad CEO in Ryan Cohen. Some will argue the opposite and suggest that $GME is the single best company in existence; but you’d be a fool to suggest that.

As someone who trades for a living and has people watching my trades and sometimes following them, I’m extremely reticent of this notion and understand my level of risk is different from others and the acceptance of losses differs too. With this in mind, I purposely leave out any option ideas I might dabble in or some other risky ventures out of fear people following me might catch a bad one and get injured. Don’t misconstrue my careful wording here since I do risk plenty and have been known to take some high octane bets; but nothing too crazy and certainly not for an extended period of time.

So when I look at Roaring Kitty, who at one point was a licensed professional, I wonder what he’s thinking by showcasing his book. The only reason why you’d showcase your book is to either help people or help yourself. If you’re buying shit you want others to buy it with you and juice your returns. If you have value to add and some good ideas, you offer those ideas, either for a fee for out from the kindness of your heart.

What do we have here with $GME? This was supposed to be a crusade against the bankers, a venue to extract vengeance against the system because they’ve been having their way for too long. Is that what buying $GME really is or is it something different? Perhaps some have figured out how to corner a stock and rig it higher no different from the big bad bankers. At the same time those shopping $GME around as the best thing since sliced bread are marketing a brand of investment that is ruinous for normies. Instead of telling them to compound their gains over 20 years, they’re telling them to get rich quick and take some shortcuts by invoking populism into their stock picking and introducing the most riskiest form of investing (call buying) into the lexicon in a manner that is entirely unacceptable.

What I am saying to you is, most of you are fucking idiots and cannot be trusted with investments. More so, you’re easily tricked by wealth and the allure of having shiny things because you think it’ll make you more attractive and it’s all so tiresome. What you need to do is fuck off and buy an index fund and go back to work.

Right wing electoral wins were reported all across Europe last night, as people rejected the “new world order” in droves. Let’s not pretend these right wingers will do anything substantive. However, the idea of shift to the right looks to be manifesting itself in the tape, with leadership in oils at the open of trade.

All politics aside, I really do thing the most important element to this tape now is the euro dollar cross, again weaker by 0.45%. Normally a strong dollar bodes poorly for the market. But I have a suspicion this time is different. With the ECB cutting rates to 3.75% and heading lower, they’re much easier than in America. If you take into account the stronger than expected economic numbers here, there is a strong chance we will not be cutting rates soon, which can set up for a Euro Dollar carry and flooding of euros into our markets.

Caveat: this is largely a fanciful idea, but it has expressly manifested itself in Japan for decades. There is a bull case in America that does not exist in Europe, mostly thanks to our policies against Russia, but alas we cannot delve into everything all at once.

My bottom line is this: bullish on stocks but mindless of where I want to position. The sector rotations can be brutal and earnings season is never fun. Overall however, we can be in for some upside surprises in stocks.

Let me preface this with saying I own zero $GME and was never fooled into the hype. NEVERTHELESS, I have both compassion and respect for Roaring Kitty, entering the fucking oven on his own accord. The management at $GME did him dirty this morning, announcing the second secondary in a month: 75 million shares to fuck the market. The stock had been $67 before the announcement but then afterwards it was collapse and the fate of Kitty and Co took a hard fork in the road easterly and then lower. If Ryan Cohen, CEO of Gamestop, had not fucked him the stock and the vibe of his livestream might’ve been completely different.

This blog might’ve been titled ROARING KITTY IS A BILLIONAIRE; but instead I am here defending a person I have no relation to, or respect as a financial analyst. I do, however, respect the fuck out of him for having the testicular fortitude to be at the very pinnacle of finance today. This is a person who started off with $50k and was flirting with a billion before the market opened. He is easily one of the most successful, if not the most successful, speculators in American history. I hope you can at least appreciate that.

Post Kitty, it seems the entire market turned lower, amidst renewed concerns of higher rates for longer. Then the selling hit the cryptos and by the close it felt like a rout. I closed down nearly 2%, fucked and happy about it because I feeeeeeel like I am right here, in spite of what the close looked like. I am 145% leveraged long without hedges and down 1.2% to start June.

It’s not always easy and we’re all vying to succeed, bobbing and weaving and jumping over the murdeholes that is part and parcel of late stage empire Pax Americana, collapse era.

Ciao.

I’m going to play the role as an apologists for stocks today. Hear me out.

The past few years has led to the collapse of the Yen vs the dollar. The yen is off by more than 30% in the past 3 years, specifically due to the BOJ’s zero percent rate policy juxtaposed against our grandiose 5.5%. The Yen carry trade is in full effect: borrow in yen for nothing, buy treasuries for 5.25% or ladder up the risk and allocate into equities. Don’t think for a second this isn’t happening.

Now with an American jobs market hotter than expected, it’s very possible rate cuts won’t happen anytime soon. Juxtapose that against the Bank of Canada cutting and the ECB’s first cut since 2019 and you have the possibility of the trend beginning to emerge: euro dollar carry trade.

To confirm this suspicion we’d need to see further weakening of the euro against the dollar, now down just 0.63% against the dollar today.

In short, the economy is booming and the inflation monster isn’t coming back to the levels they once were. There is a great chance, should we remain tight and not coordinate with the ECB, that a European American arb can materialize, creating one of the greatest bubbles in history.