18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
20,345 Blog Posts

Supply Chain Constraints Offer New Leg Lower Potential for Stocks

Peter Navarro is out talking greasy about China restricting exportation of N-95 face masks and said the US is working diligently to firm up the domestic supply chain. This can only mean one thing — more business for APT and LAKE.

I am long APT.

I executed two day trades today, COCP for +44% and SPCE for +8%.

Here is the balance of my closed trades.

NNVC +63%
SOXS +21%
FAZ +7.8%
JNUG +5.2%
ZM +3.8%
STMP +85%

See pal, that’s who I am. Fuck you go home and play with your kids.

Although tempted to buy the dip, I restrained myself due to the chance of a stark morning dip following the destruction of European markets. I am 40% cash now, long a sundry of highly spec virus related plays and other things. It was a fine day, perhaps the best of the year for folks inside Exodus — because we made so much money on a day where everyone else lost.

This small bounce following the -1,000 print feels like a trap, but it could be legit. I do see staggering losses in the commodity space. Look at steel demand in China, comically offline.

Perhaps it’s best to wait for some dust to settle before legging into semis, no?

On the other hand, speculation is running rampant in the virus/face mask sector now. Quit being such misers and invest in your future lads. Join Exodus today and get a free Orbital Space Cannon (OSC).

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Italy Cracked Thru the Fucking Floor Boards; US Markets in Heavy Selling Retreat

Let’s think clearly about this for a minute. IBM was up 16% heading into today. Fucking IBM. A slew of SAAS stocks were up 20% heading into today, 1 month into the new year. A god damned pandemic is shutting down cities and borders around the world.

This is the definition of Black Swan.

The way you trade it is with caution — because at any minute now those fucking devils at the Fed will announce some scheme to support equities.

My trading account is up around 8% today, mainly because of monstrous wins in a variety of virus related plays and some shorts. I wasn’t lucky. That was skill.

I have another virus trade on the books now, long at $2.7, now at $3.0. I had COCP day trade from 0.72 to $1.04, now trading at $1.32 with someone inside Exodus threatening to “eat his own cock” should it print $2 today. Crazy stuff.

The Nasdaq is off by more than 300, Dow more than 800, yet here were are winners.

Is it by happenstance this should happen? Are we blessed? Should the SEC be informed about these transactions? I don’t know. You be the judge.

Oh, by the way, Italian markets were fucking raped for 5.5% today.

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Markets Collapse; Fly Wins Again

UPDATE: Sold COCP, day trade, +44%

This is getting repetitive.

Here is today’s catches, fresh from the fish market. Closed out trades.

STMP +85%
ZM +3.8%
JNUG +5.2%
FAZ +7.8%
SOXS +21%
NNVC +63%

In case you’re new here or just coming back after months of siesta, I no longer give picks here anymore. Those are reserved for the closers only in Exodus.


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Here is why your portfolio is getting lit aflame.

The virus is spread by farting, at a distance of 200m.

On this news, Nasdaq futures are -290. European stocks are being mangled, off by 3.5% — Italy down by 4.6%. Lit the fuck up. Oil off by 4%, gold up by 2%, the US 10yr now with a 3 handle at 1.39&.


My positions heading into today.

35% cash, JNUG, SOXS, FAZ, and NNVC.

I’ll be updating as the day progresses.

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In Lieu of Titanic Correction, I Bring to You the Gentleman of the Year

Look at the panache of this chap, pocket square inflation out the motherfucker. He has the red socks going hard, doesn’t give a fuck. Check out his picket watch too, affixed to a chain he probably bought in 1907.

I know you want to talk about the Dow indicating down 400 and how Le Fly was fucking dead right again, long FAZ, SOXS, GLD, TLT, JNUG and a virus stock into the maelstrom. But we’re not here for that now.

Look at this magnificent man.

What’s he doing here, aside from telling the world how it is? He’s giving some millennial snowflake the business — telling him to fuck off and to get his thumb out of his big ass — that’s what.

Look at this punk’s haircut.

I don’t know who this nice chap is, but it would’ve been nice having him as a Dad.

“Hey Dad, can I get some of that iced cream from the man in the truck.”

“Listen here Fly, that fucking iced cream is for sissies. It’ll make you soft and grow big floppy jelly tits on you. Have some fucking oatmeal and be a man.”


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Brace Yourselves: A Storm is Brewing

Look at the top ranked sectors in Exodus. Looks oddly defensive no?

After such a gigantic melt up in January, coupled with pandemic fears and supply chain disruptions in Asia, it’s time for a fucking pause. It’s time to board the ark and also get into the FAZmobile. Definable risk in XLF and SMH makes for a palapable trade to the downside. Get positioned for some downside and bathe in the blood of your enemies. The good days are officially over and with it comes dark sadness and gloom.

Aside from the plague, global growth is at risk of collapse — because of aforementioned plague. Ergo, and this goes without saying, a fucking black swan is upon you.

I realize this is the last piece of shit news you’d like to be entreated with on this fine Saturday afternoon. But too bad. Life is hard sometimes and you can’t always get what you want. Sometimes you get what you deserve, and sometimes much worse.

Le Fly is positioned for downside risk, but not an exaggerated degree. I first want to see some confirmation on Monday and then I’ll really get bearish. You have no idea how acrimonious I can be — like a funeral director with the blog up in here.


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It’s over faggots. You had your fun in the sun; now it’s time to die from the Coronavirus. But before you do, your brokerage accounts will hit zero.

The 30yr mortgage is at record lows. Gold and cryptos are soaring. Banks and semis are being dismantled. What more do you need to see?

Apple has already told you business would be hampered. We’ve got the beginnings of a very serious rout on our hands and yet there you are not taking it seriously. You are this way thanks to a decade plus of central bank rigging. But guess what pal, the Fed can’t stop the virus. Business in China has ground to a halt and soon their banks will dissipate into dust.

I am more than 50% cash, long some SOXS, some gold, and lots of $STMP — which has doubled from my basis. I will have you know, inside of my quant, I am 10% long TLT and 10% GLD, no accident there of course.

The fate of humanity rests in the balance. How will your narrative be woven, one of a degenerate spend-thrift who lost it all in the great crash of 2020 or the sage of salt who buried his enemies under 10 feet of salt for betting against him?


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We all get lucky on trades from time to time. Yesterday was one of those days for me, getting “lucky” on a 55% jump in STMP off good earnings and resumption of contract with USPS. But what separates the men from the small girls is what to do with said gift.

Does one accept it and move on or stay for more?

It depends on the context.

See pal, STMP was $280 before things went south for them, losing the contract with the USPS — being relegated to a shell of a company. Now with the contract back in place, I see no reason to believe the stock cannot power to new highs. This conviction, this poise under fire, is what makes Le Fly a world class Master Ace Trader (M.A.T.).

While many of my minions inside of the Pelican Room in Exodus sold and gleefully skipped away with profits to eat a box of chocolates of whatever the hell they do in their spare time, Le Fly knuckled down and made the hard trade: nothing.

Sure, it’s easy to take an 80% win over a 2 day holding period. Let’s see you carry that same energy after it jumps and you’re left with the decision to hold on a day when stocks are down over 1%.

When will I sell?

Maybe over $200.

The point here is to brag and do it often and make it known to the world Le Fly is not to be trifled with. I hope I made this point abundantly clear.

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BREAKOUT! Coronavirus Wreaks Havoc Across the Globe

The amount of Coronavirus in China surged last night, with more than 700 reported cases, 500 of which come from jail. Over in Iran, 18 sick in various cities, 4 dead. Israel even reported 1 sick. Over in S. Korea, the amount of infected patients doubled overnight. While many of you believe it’s just the flu, China has taken upon themselves to WELD citizens shut into their buildings and threatened to break their feet and teeth should they try anything silly — like venture outside.

These new numbers, coupled with the fact that today is Friday, stocks are plunging — sending the NasCrack down by 150. Fortunately for me, I am long SOXS. I also sold BTAI today for a 6% overnight win. Pro tip: buy any stock after they announce a secondary for a quick overnight pop.

I’m 55% cash now and have been missing on a lot of trades. I am not losing money because I’ve had some really big wins, such as overnight Tesla puts +228%. Nevertheless, I too am struggling to find a thread in this market and find myself over-trading for the sake of trying to define myself here. Perhaps it’s best to trade small while markets find themselves.

For example, the 30yr bond yield is at RECORD lows, at 1.89%. The 10yr is sinking fast, down another 7bps to 1.45%. Clearly, the bond market is telling us something is wrong. Don’t listen to what the talking heads have to say. Protect yourselves from the plague, raise some cash, and hedge your longs with some shorts.

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Fairly Iconic Day for Yours Truly

Gonna make this brief because I’m tired of seeing my self type. I had STMP heading into today from $90 and now find myself up 80% in the position. They re-struck a deal with USPS and smashed numbers. I suspect the stock is going over $200 soon. Therefore, I am not selling my shares.

All position of mine are 5% weighted.

I spent the balance of my day repositioning into new stocks, cleaning out some losers, and placing one hedge (SOXS) for a just in case scenario. I am richly up for the year and have the confidence to tell you now, unequivocally, that my style cannot be matched nor replicated. At some point during my lifetime I will attempt to create an algorithm to catch trading patterns the way I do in real life. Until then, you’re stuck with me, bragging about my wins like a teenager on this ridiculous trading blog.

I hope you’re all having as much fun as I am and I want you to keep some things in perspective, while looking at stocks trading lower. The Fed has all but eliminated the business cycle with their policies, so do not fret these sell offs. Instead, you should embrace them.

Good day.

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