iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
21,892 Blog Posts

RUSSIA OFFERS PEACE TALKS AFTER SECOND DAY OF FIERCE COMBAT WITH UKRAINE; SAYS SANCTIONS ON THE WEST BEING PREPARED

Ukraine is claiming they killed 1400 Russians since yesterday and have been needing to use secondary waves of men to keep pace. Russian armored columns are slowly but surely making their way to Kyiv, in what will inevitably be a terrible battle for the capitol. Simultaneously, Russia is prepared to have peace talks with Zelensky in Minsk, which doesn’t seem likely since Belarus is a belligerent.

Here are some relevant headlines for the day.

GERMAN FOREIGN MINISTER BAERBOCK SAYS WE NEED TO PAVE THE WAY FOR TARGETED SANCTIONS AND NOT JUST SANCTIONS THAT SOUND BIG || SAYS CUTTING OFF RUSSIA FROM SWIFT WOULD MEAN THAT ORDINARY PEOPLE CAN NO LONGER TRANSFER MONEY TO RELATIVES IN RUSSIA

THE KREMLIN: WE RECOGNISE ZELENSKIY AS UKRAINE’S PRESIDENT.

Ukraine is ready to negotiate a neutral status with Russia, but it must also receive security guarantees, adviser to the President of Ukraine Mikhail Podolyak said in a statement.

“This war must be stopped. These hostilities must be stopped.”

CHINA’S XI TOLD PUTIN HE RESPECTS RUSSIA’S ACTIONS, AFFIRMED READINESS FOR CLOSE COORDINATION AND MUTUAL SUPPORT AT UNITED NATIONS – KREMLIN

RUSSIA HAS PREPARED SANCTIONS TO HIT WEST’S WEAK POINTS: IFX

KREMLIN: OUR EXPECTATIONS OF KYIV REMAIN THE SAME, RUSSIA DOESN’T CHANGE ITS POSITION LIKE A “GIRL”.

RUSSIA: WE ARE LIVING IN A MULTIPOLAR WORLD. NEW CENTERS OF POWER ARE EMERGING AND THIS SHOULD BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT BY THE WEST. THE UNITED STATES CANNOT UNILATERALLY DECIDE

In short, crippling sanctions on Russia, really just excluding them from the rest of the world, while at the same time Russia is preparing to target the weak point of the west. That has to mean gas and perhaps other important commodities. Interestingly, commodities are COLLAPSING today, as that trade got crowded and it now unraveling.

GOLD -2%

WTI -0.7%

NATTY -2.4%

WHEAT -4.6%

CORN -3.2%

SOYBEANS -2.3%

PALLADIUM -7%

CATTLE -2%

Crowded trades usually get mud-stomped like this when people head for the exits. Perhaps the offer of peace talks is causing people to exit the trade, or maybe it’s financial rigging of some sort. One thing is also notable, interest rates are back on the rise, back to previous highs of 2% on the 10yr. This will apply pressure to mortgages and junk credits.

I’m at 100% cash — markets look like they’ll open up slightly to the upside — but I am not too eager to step back in yet.

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After Ukraine — What’s Next?

US futures are down a little more than 100 tonight — but given the +450 point rally that is barely a retracement. At this point, most of you are well versed as to the happenings in the war department — Russia advanced methodically on Kiev while Ukrainians defend themselves best they can. They’ve been quite the spectacle on Twitter, on par with the rest of clown world we live in today — broadcasting everything as we do it in order to curry “likes” and “comments.”

The White House said this earlier and it got me thinking — is anyone next on Putin’s hit list or does he stop at Ukraine?

My mind immediately goes to PUTIN RAMPAGING THROUGHOUT EUROPE, lobbing cruise missiles on all major cities in a final showdown with NATO; but I am only thinking that nonsense because I’ve been psyoped by Hollywood since I was born to fear the Hitler and the next Hitler, for once he takes Czechoslovakia he will never stop and instead keep going until he genocides the world, lest you have blonde hair and blue eyes (thank god for contact lenses and hair dye).

But in the real world, Putin is likely to stop at Ukraine and the world will hate him for a year and then forget all about him.

Meanwhile, we still have a FUCKED economy with jaw-breaking inflation, so bear that in mind as you dive in head first into the concrete jungles of the NASDAQIRI.

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Markets Celebrate American Greatness — Soars 900 NASDAQS Off Lows

I was out most of the day and did not trade after my morning sales, which netted me just 1%. I am certain if I had been trading, in what amounted to be one of the best reversals in recent times, I’d be happier than I am now. But I can honestly say, having missed out on +450 NASDAQs, it was just another day at the office.

SAAS stocks exploded to nearly 8% and all of your finest undervalued high PS ratio tech stocks ejaculated with glee, all over the war monger bears who fashioned themselves as General Patton inside some sort of War Room extolling the virtues of WW3.

Since I am 100% in cash and haven’t been at the monitor since afternoon, I offer no real insight into this tape, other than to say this is the first Thursday green in 9 weeks. Whether this ebullience spills into tomorrow and perhaps next week is anyone’s guess. My hunch is, the Russia war discount has been neutralized and we can once again begin to worry about 9 FUCKING RATE HIKES FOR 2022 and deleterious earnings results at BIG TECH — cracking shares asunder in unceremonious burials.

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REPORT: UKRAINE TO FALL BY THE WEEKEND

Newsweek is reporting from a government source inside Ukraine — they believe the government will fall inside 96 hrs. The manpower and machinery of the Russians is too much for Ukraine to defend against. Will they revert to Guerilla warfare? I’d argue against it. This isn’t Iraq where mostly Christian Americans occupied a Muslim nation, different country and different language. The Ukrainians are brothers to Russians and once Russia pays off the right people, ordinary folk will just want to get back to living life.

I’ve been covering the war on my twitter account as many of you know and have seen some pretty disturbing things. Away from the novelty of war via social media, my heart truly breaks for the people of Ukraine who will suffer due to leadership. But of all the things I’ve seen, this video of John Kerry discussing his concerns over the emissions emitted from the war has to be one of the most blackpilled things I’ve ever seen, coming from an American viewpoint. Seriously, don’t laugh at it. Think about the mindset of these people and then look at what’s happening in Russian and then think about natural order and how over time the weak always succumb to the strong, and then worry.

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Constanza Trade is On: Stocks Rip Higher on the Very Worst of News

Classic Wall Street, finding the silver lining n anything at all. We could have a mushroom cloud over DC right now (God forbid) and someone, somewhere, would bid up stocks based on the notion of an easy Fed policy. This is exactly what we’re seeing early going — straight up.

More than that, SAAS and tech are leading the way, while the commodity trade takes second fiddle. The idea of gold, oil, and stocks in quicksand almost immediately turned into a buy the fucking dip moment, with traders leveraging up their accounts to find bargains.

Is the market wrong?

The market is never wrong. It all depends on your timeframe. I went to cash and locked in a 1% gain for the session. I was hoping for 5x that amount but all of the commodities faded and my shorts quickly started to lose luster. I am not playing this bounce — only because I am stressed the fuck out and prefer to not increase that stress by being long in what I view a ‘stupid rally.’

Perhaps Kiev is sacked by the weekend and maybe this all goes away like some sort of lucid nightmare. For all the talk, I very much doubt Europe could survive another winter without Russian energy, no matter how many windmills they build.

If this were 3pm, I’d likely take on shorts and long commodities.

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STOCK SET TO CAREEN LOWER AS WAR IN UKRAINE RAGES ON

There is plenty of blame to go around for how we got to this place in the world, starting with the west’s decision to become wholly dependent upon Russian oil and gas, whilst at the same time ceasing to invest in hydro-carbons. The ESG virtue signaling bullshit has resulted in a fuckload of windmills and solar panels, and now a freezing Europe due to lack of fuel for their furnaces and a belligerent Russia using military force to reassert their dominance in a region of the world ancient to them, rich with historical and cultural ties, and yet I wonder what the fuck was going on with America embedded in that country appointing their politicians and arming them with Raytheon’s very best?

The utopian dream of America on Russia’s border, controlling Kiev, is ostensibly over. As much as we supported Ukraine and everyone appeared to be their friends, in the end, a country can only depend on itself to defend its borders. This is between Russia and Ukraine and there’s not much we can do short of military intervention. Those are just the cold hard facts. Does China use this to invade Taiwan? I don’t think so, since China doesn’t produce its own food. Nevertheless, markets are likely to remain on edge for some time, at least until this is somewhat stabilized — and then what? Business as usual with Russia? How can Europe heat their homes without Russian gas? What about Russian wheat and now Ukrainian wheat — the bread basket of Europe?

Once again, the people, the ordinary people, lose out to poor leadership and corruption. The leaders inside Ukraine chose to ignore the signs for months, publicly decrying US intelligence as being wrong about a Russian invasion. For years they poked at Russia while attempting to join NATO — acquired advanced weaponry and smugly demeaned their far superior neighbor because hubris.

In the end, always, the strong eats the weak, no matter how many interviews they do on 60 Minutes.

Now what?

Rock meets hard place. People are happy over the idea that the Fed might not hike due to this war. Really? Oil is fucking surging, alongside corn, wheat, natty, and every other commodity traded. Inflation just got much much worse and if the Fed doesn’t act to counter inflation, we could have a much larger problem with inflation that anyone could’ve ever imagined possible.

I had prepared for this eventuality and own lots of UVXY and TZA, along with an array of commodity stocks. I will likely go to cash today and perhaps get real small and pick and choose my spots. I do not think this is a day to bottom fish, ahead of Friday, ahead of the longest weekend in decades.

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RUSSIA DECLARES WAR ON UKRAINE, WARNS FOREIGN PARTIES TO NOT INTERFERE

Putin addressed Russia at 5:36am to inform his country he was declaring war on Ukraine. The operation is officially underway and here is the run down.

Russian President Putin to Ukrainian soldiers: “Your ancestors fought the Nazis, don’t obey the orders of the Nazi Junta in Kyiv. Lay down your arms and go home.”

PUTIN: “To anyone who would consider interfering from the outside: if you do, you will face consequences greater than any you have faced in history. All relevant decisions have been taken. I hope you hear me.”

NASDAQ FUTS -330

US 10YR -7bps 1.9%

WHEAT +4.2%

NATTY +3%

GOLD +1%

WTI +2.8%

BIDEN: ON THURSDAY, WE WILL ANNOUNCE FURTHER SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA.

Explosions now being reported in Odesa as well, as Russian bombardment of Ukraine continues.

A terrible night for the people of Ukraine. The response to markets have been severe, with cascading futures and soaring commodities. The kitchen sink is being thrown at Ukraine and there is no way the capitol can stand for longer than a few days. The west now finds themselves in the unenviable position of having to completely cut off Russia and deal with the deleterious consequences of not having enough wheat, potash, oil and gas, or cutting them off and now dealing with a militarily superior foe on its borders. One thing is for certain, tonight is the beginning of a new militarization across Europe, for the sake of their survival.

REMINDER: Ukraine isn’t a democracy, but a US puppet state of thieves powered by corruption.

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UKRAINE UNDER STATE OF EMERGENCY; U.S. SAYS RUSSIA ATTACKS TONIGHT

There appears to be a significant escalation of events happening tonight, starting with the President of Ukraine attempting to call Putin and then speaking to the Russian people in Russian, a language he has attempted to remove from Ukraine, in an effort to sue for peace.

Here is the run down.

ABC News is reporting that Russian military commanders have gone to command center.

Ukraine closes airspace nationwide, citing “potential hazard” *

REPORTS OF EXPLOSIONS IN MARIUPOL

Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU): Russia has purchased 45,000 body bags.

RUSSIA HAS CLOSED SOME AIRSPACE IN ROSTOV FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION ON EASTERN BORDER OF UKRAINE – NOTICE TO AIRMEN

U.S. Secretary of State Blinken believes Russia will invade Ukraine before the night is over – NBC/REU

I hate to even bring up markets in light of what will amount to be pain and suffering for people; but NASDAQ futs are -85, moderate losses all things considered. Moreover, we are seeing grains sharply higher and wheat +2.3%. If Russia does begin a full scale invasion tonight — markets might not collapse in the way you think they will. In my opinion, Ukraine is to Russia what Iraq was to America in terms of threat, so it should end quickly and hopefully without much collateral damage. The big question for markets will be: Will Putin end at Kiev or will he then turn his guns on the Baltics?

I must say, the diplomatic savvy amongst NATO and Ukraine, at least on the surface, has been nothing less than dreadful. The hubris and the arrogance in the face of military might made no sense, almost as if these people thought they were invisible. The main Russian assertion, to paraphrase, is Ukraine had gone too west and was turning its back on their Russian culture and becoming a security threat to Russia. Seeing U.S. govt officials constantly parading themselves in Ukraine, whoring themselves out for Lockheed and Raytheon, as well as securing lucrative Ukrainian business contracts (Hunter Biden) has undoubtedly fucked over the average Ukrainian citizen who will now suffer because the greedy leaders failed to take tangible threats seriously and felt they could do whatever they wanted to, despite any consequences they might endure later on.

A gaggle of Eddie Barzoons.

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Glorious Wreckage: The Fly Surges Amidst Toil and Tumult

Greetings plebs

As many you see, we are in crisis now. As many of you know, those versed in my track record at iBankCoin – I have yet to miss an opportunity to profit off crisis. We traded here merrily in the 2008 fires and even during the 2020 plague. Now we have the final end game and some of you aren’t onboard. I will lay it out best I can, in layman’s terms.

Russia is sick of America’s bullshit and is using our CRT/LGBT chasm of weakness to advance their internal goals. We have never been weaker as a country, so they figured “fuck it, let’s sack Ukraine.”

Toothless and defenseless Europe now finds themselves in the unfortunate position of having to FREEZE and STARVE to death due to their reliance on Russian wheat and gas. They cannot fight against Russia — because all of the men of Europe have been replaced by trannies (I realize I am coming across as a reprobate).

As Russia has us by the nuts, China will extend their cocks into Taiwan and then we shall really see tumult.

The world is in the beginning stages of burning. What you see here is a mere kindling. The ancillary effects of Russian war is sharply higher commodity prices but more importantly SCARCITY. This is why renewables like GRPE, REGI, and OPPT ran today when they should have collapsed. We also saw spikes in the grains, which will lead to shortages in fertilizers. MOS is your play there.

Let’s not forget alumnium. The pleb buys AA on aluminum shortage headlines; but the keen investor, those found inside the gracious confines of Stocklabs, buys BTU — because he knows and understands how aluminum is made.

In short, we are just getting started.

+140bps for the session, fully invested and leveraged with a blend of longs and shorts.

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WHEAT PRICES EXPLODE TO NEW HIGHS AMIDST RUSSIAN CRISIS

SIR —

SIR!

You can sanction Europe all you want. Russia’s tiny economy holds all of the natural gas, oil, and also wheat, so also enjoy starving to death. I do not say this with malice, but only find it amusing how fucking stupid the Europeans are for getting checkmated like this so hard.

On top of that, Ukraine is the “bread basket” of Europe, leaving a panic in the commodity pits now with prices of wheat soaring to new highs.

My play for this is MOS — but there are others. Stocks like BG, IPI and CTVA are also interesting. Let’s not forget dry bulk shippers, who might be needed to prevent Europe from starving. This trade isn’t hard. Short stocks, long volatility, long commodities.

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