18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
21,908 Blog Posts

CountryWide Chapter 11 Pending?

I’m not an alarmist, but that’s the rumor spreading around Wall Street.

Just know, the stock is down the most since 1987.

According to Phoenix Partners: Countrywide debt protection costs rise to 26% upfront from 20%.

Basically, defaults are going through the roof at [[CFC]]. This turkey looks cooked (no pun intended, regarding CFC’s heralded CEO, Mozilo).

Anyway, if chapter 11 is imminent, I believe it would have a devastating effect on the markets, more so than Enron.

In short, do not buy stocks right now.

UPDATE: CFC just halted!

“The Fly” wins again, sort of.

UPDATE II: Countrywide says not substance to rumor it is planning to file for bankruptcy protection

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Darn Stupid Chinese Stocks

It’s so fucking warm in NYC today; I feel like going to the beach. Seriously, oil/gas is going lower.

As for [[MVIS]]–

Fuck you; I warned you. Don’t come crying to me, like a little bitch, saying: “it’s another ARWR, iiG or MCHX.” Fuck that. If you bought the stock, alongside me, you are up nicely. I will not elaborate further; except to say that I effectively blew out of all of the above stocks well above where they are now. Moreover, iiG was a 25% profit.

As you know, all of the big banks and brokerages are going belly-up. Take a look at the action in [[SCA]], [[ETFC]], [[CFC]], [[ABK]], [[MBI]], [[MTG]], [[PMI]], [[CCRT]] and [[MS]]. How is this decline in the financials different than the dot com blow up of 2000, price wise?

Furthermore, what happened to the general market after the dot coms were ripped to shreds and why?

Answer those questions accurately and you may be able to make some money this year.

Finally, it’s worth noting, I fucking hate anomalies, such as Chinese stocks. They just won’t go lower. [[FXP]] is getting “mushroom clouded,” thanks to the upward action in [[CHL]].

God willing, soon, it will get its head chopped off too.

For now, making money betting against the financials, via [[SKF]], is like running downhill.

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Last Chance to Kill a Bear

With the earnings season kicking off tomorrow, I suspect the market will rally today.

However, should [[AA]] report a bowser number, look for the indices to go right back down.

Aside from the numbers, another problem investors face is the fucktardedness of analysts, who will be rushing to downgrade the stocks they cover. Call it “PE compression.”

Essentially, most analysts do not have recession baked into their models. Therefore, in order to avoid looking like stupid cupfuckers, they will all rush to “price it in,” sometime this week or next.

In the meantime, enjoy the bounce–for it will be short lived.

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Fly Buy: DUG

I bought 5,000 shares of [[DUG]] @ $38.29.

Disclaimer: If you buy DUG because of this post, you will go bald. And, you may lose money.

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Eminem: Murder Murder

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b6u7Q6VOC0s&feature=PlayList&p=8AF18B710B3DB739&index=23 450 300]

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The Bottomless Bottom

Much like 2000, this market is unable to find a bottom, as investors reel from staggering declines in momentum and “value trap” stocks.

When investing, it’s important to look at the underlying business of the stock you are buying, instead of stupid lines and dots (charts). The question you need to ask yourself is: will business improve or deteriorate?

For example: one of Apple’s suppliers is citing a big drop in orders from the iPhone fuckers, due to taking a “conservative view toward macro economics slowdown.”

Now, I’m long [[AAPL]] and love the company; but there’s no fucking way I’m buying it higher than $150.

With regards to [[MVIS]]:

I am using this spike in volume and price to reduce my exposure to small cap/unproven names. In bad markets, story stocks get the “homo-hammer of certain death” daily. Keep in mind, all the CES hype will soon be a memory.

Finally, I’m leaving early today, due to a celebratory event. I am quite pleased with my market positions, especially my shorts.

Are you?

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More Pain Coming

Longs are unnerved by the breakdown in key momentum names and have begun “selling it all.”

Keep in mind, fund managers HAVE to raise cash, in order to balance risk.

With the market failing here, I think it’s safe to short stocks, via [[FXP]], [[EEV]] and my favorite [[DUG]].

If a naval clash with Iran can’t boost oil prices, nothing will. Just so you know, being long DUG gets you short [[XOM]], [[CVX]], [[SLB]], [[MRO]] and [[COP]].

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How to Play the Bounce

Part of the problem with “playing a bounce,” is picking the right stock(s). In the past, prior to acquiring space ships and other “new age” technology devices, “The Fly” would occasionally pick the wrong stock—essentially fucking up the “oversold rally bounce.”

As you know, nailing short term bottoms can be sweet. However, buying the anomaly, or the only God forsaken stock that stays down on a bounce, can drive any investor to mental instability.

Some people go long the index’s, via [[QQQQ]] or [[DIA]]. However, I think buying index ETF’s is plain ol’ vanilla gay. Instead, for a bounce, I like focused ETF’s, specifically [[ROM]].

ROM is the Ultra Technology Fund, which is most heavily weighted in [[MSFT]], [[AAPL]], [[CSCO]], [[GOOG]], [[HPQ]], [[IBM]], [[INTC]], [[ORCL]], [[QCOM]] and [[DELL]].

Barring a notable blowup, on a bounce, buying ROM will almost ensure participation on the upside.

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