12/13/2008
8am- Woke up early this morning, in order to drape the house with Christmas lights—which, incidentally, I have been putting off. Mrs. Fly is not too happy about the lights not being on the house, nor on the front lawn.. I will be getting the ladder, ample supplies of coffee and the “blue radio,” which I found hidden in the garage. Wish me luck.
11am- Boy was it cold outside. I finished putting the fucking lights on the house and nearby killed myself doing so. I saw my neighbor Steve. He does not appear to be doing too well. The recession has him down, literally.
12pm- I searched the internet and people are still stupid. All is well. I will be heading out for some Christmas shopping today, somewhere in Northern New Jersey.
1pm- I Just got a call from a buddy at Morgan Stanley. He’s been shitcanned and needs to find alternative employment. I suggested he become a cab driver and to move from his house in Scarsdale, for a run down studio apartment in Hell’s Kitchen.
2pm- I started “live blogging” the recession of 2008. After this post, I will head out into the cold, grim world of retail.
12/14/2008
12am- After bathing and putting the kids into bed, after a long day of shopping, much to my chagrin, I found gas leak in my heating unit. While I sit here, waiting for National Grid to arrive, I can tell you the New Jersey shopping scene is quite brisk. Men are walking around, dressed in white robes, smoking pipes and making their servants fetch 100 inch flat screen televisions.
The women are fat as hell, buying themselves Christmas presents and getting the kids stuff too. All in all, I saw vultures at Walmart and Emperors at the local mall. Wagons were bumper to bumper and parking was nonexistent.
Without a doubt, the pending depression that everyone talk about is nowhere to be scene, in these egregious neck of the woods. I tell Mrs. Fly all the time: “No one has money. It’s all credit card purchases.”
She never believes me. Her theory: people in the tri-state area are all rich and never in need of surplus currency.
My guess, people went on mugging sprees, just prior to entering the mall. Or, many of the people at Walmart just hit the lotto, or some shit.
However, I will say, at my local mall, everything inside of Macy’s was 50-70% off. The cashiers told me things were okay, nothing to rave over.
All in all, the shopping at Walmart was frenetic, while the mall scene was your standard holiday “get me the fuck out of here, it’s too busy” type of venue.
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How about Recession of “2008-2009”??
Sometime soon, I will hop into my time machine and live blog from 2010.
How about the Depression of 2009-2020?
The newest retail store is the Asian barber shop where Americans line up shoulder to shoulder in the coldest of alleyways to collect hair to sell to wig manufacturers and other non-profit organizations.
I just hopped in my time machine to read Fly’s time machine 2010 Blog. It just says “Fuck you your dead”. Then there is a short you tube video of Paulson,Kudlow,Cramer,and Bernake bieng thrown into a fish tank full of piranhas.
Fly,
mine’s a fake brushed nickel color made in China piece o’crap
that the cd player quit after 3 tries. The antennae is still attached, for what good it is, as it will only pick up a station if it’s like, next to my house, which fortunately I do not. So, I took the guts out of it, and use it to camouflage my tasty brew, so my trophy model wife won’t bitch at me for drinking while I’m about my manly tasks.
BTW, my former idiot at ML called me asking if I was interested in buying life insurance from him……noooooo
Goldie Says:
I just hopped in my time machine to read Fly’s time machine 2010 Blog. It just says “Fuck you your dead”. Then there is a short you tube video of Paulson,Kudlow,Cramer,and Bernake being thrown into a fish tank full of piranhas.
What does a fish tank full pf puking piranhas
look like?
The blue radio….now let’s see, that’s the one you listen to the Mets choke to every year, is that correct?
Yours Truly,
Mr. Molina
MS is a disease.
The fact that the world didnt end on Friday is a modern miracle. In fact, i’m now convinced the “hit” on society might be chinese water torture. If madoff didnt close the coffin, we might need a black swan sighting in the North Pole? Im still packing my bags for a hut in Costa Rica, portable DVD player with all the 30 Rock episodes.
Fly is living that movie – you know – the one with Chevy Chase about the lights and stuff.
New lows this month.
Generational BOTTOM Picker,
There was no puking from the fish,just 5 minutes of pleading for their worthless lives as they were slowly lowered into the tank naked. Paulson did spray shit from being scared all over Kudlow and Cramer and that made Bernake puke. The piranhas looked like they were having the time of their lives.
XOM will top next week.
The Funnel = job driving cab living in Hells Kitchen
Oil’s supply cut won’t save its price from dropping further over the next couple of weeks. DJIA 7000s incoming.
10% of my old firm got pink slips week before last. that equals roughly 200 people. first time in the 40yr history of the firm. i have to laugh, however, because they eliminated a lot of people that do real work, and they kept a bunch that are paid exponentially more, add roughly zero value, and have IQs exponentially lower than items found in kitchen cabinets.
something else that’s rather amusing still is remembering the ‘farewell’ speech by one of the firm’s most successful portfolio managers. he basically said, ‘when i look at the talent here now, i worry. good luck!’
naturally all the n00b partners were indignant, yet he was 100% right. the firm is well on its way from being a stalwart to being a mockery in the institutional world.
Mr. Fly,
Interested if your retail experience is good or bad. Considering this is a weekend and a couple of weeks before Christmas, I thought it would be crazy. Not bad. Even the lines at Best Buy were not an issue. If I see a story about how wonderful sales are this month, I know it’s a big fat lie.
Fly- If the government lowers mortgage rates to 4.5% like they’ve been talking, SRS will swan dive to the $20s or $30s like FXP. That, and the big infrastructure stimulus package should give us a couple thousand points on the Dow short term, don’t you think? In the end it’s all gotta come crashing down when the bullets are all spent, but we may be setting up for a big rally in the next eight weeks leading up to the “eggregious” inauguration. What are your thoughts on this?
I came back from the largest mall in Maryland and there were more employees in each store than actual shoppers. This is a mall with 17 anchors and 225 ‘other’ stores. Really easy parking. It’s sad.
Lord_Tyrannus,
SRS is COMMERCIAL real estate. Malls will become wastelands in 2009.
one thing i can say about seattle is that the mall parking lots are as full as ever.
and that’s no small feat, considering the dangers of seattle-area malls.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2008425325_mallshooting23.html
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2004279107_webshooting13m.html
Lowes dead, HD packed, go figure.
In Toronto the malls are packed Jack. Construction is still alive and well as condos are sprouting up as if this was Singapore or Hong Kong… we had a condo bubble back in the late 80’s when people were flipping terms sheets and the market was full of speculators… hard to say if we are in bubble mode again but at 400.00 a sq ft my guess is we are somewhat frothy…and I believe the speculators are back in there again.
Why do you think anecdotal evidence from a friggen mall in ButtFuck Ohio is going to tell you if 300 million Americans are spending their money.
Doofuses, retail sales was out for Novemeber last Friday. Check it out. x energy and autos it was only .2% down.
I’ll rely on that number rather than anything you guys think.
Fly, you’re going to have every idiot that reads this blog going to the mall and try to figure how bad it is and live blog/comment from there. This is going to be a horrendous thread.
Lord T.
Fly think bulls are gay, so don’t ask him as it will only make you disappointed.
Fuck all of you shoppers trying to prop up China.
FXP will be higher in the weeks to come (hopefully days). Here’s why, edited via the Economist:
40% of Chinese GDP came from exports in 2006 and the World Bank’s latest growth predictions predict that the Chinese economy will expand by 7.5% in 2009 – well under its own calculation of 9.5% growth that it reckons China needs to keep unemployment stable. But the Bank’s prediction rests in part on the expectation that China’s exports will rise by 4.2% next year.
Last month’s data shows a 2.2% contraction in exports and an 18% (!!!) fall in imports. They are producing less and buying less – way less.
UBS predicts that Chinese exports will not grow at all in 2009.
Merrill Lynch had expected China to contribute 60% of global growth in 2009. But the dramatic fall in imports suggest that the Chinese can not be relied on to be the consumer of last resort.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs expect several more months of shrinking exports.
They’ll have to throw out more stimulus or will resort to eating each others’ puppies.
Oh wait-
I have no doubt this market will be forced to lower lows within the next few months. The one trick for traders to get right is timing, that’s all. Too early and your fucked, too late and your fucked. Tread carefully boys.
All you f@ckers who are still bullish are going head first in the funnel. Those that resist will get pushed!
Malls packed out here in Flyover and we’ve got two huge Ford plants in town. Maybe these UAW fuggers know something we pink necked white collar workers do not?
____
This other “Jake” is no relation.
(Obviously).
____
Can there be a rally without financials?
Can hardly wait for “Live blogging the Depression of 2009”
Breaking: Albert Haynesworth “questionable” for Texans game.
Upset special?
_____
congrats on getting the blue radio back.
Fly- I just finished putting up the giant Menorah on my roof along with the neon dreidel. Let me know if the lights keep you up at night.
Fly are you going to give us your predictions for 09 or does that form part of the lives blogging the 09 depression shtick?
Incredible photos from Depression One.
http://www.openmyeyeslord.net/ALookBackInHistory.htm
If you like history and photography – fascinating.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WfdEDzxzmyA
Joe Trader-
Very cool photos! It’s amazing that 70 year old film can be that accurate.
@anjing bau
Are you sure you’re repping T-Dot because “frothy” doesn’t match reality.
http://www.thestar.com/News/GTA/article/553264
Condo starts have slumped in Toronto, and work has been suspended on a 20-storey tower at University Ave. and College St. that was to house high-tech start-up companies.
The downturn is hitting Toronto just as it’s in the midst of reorganizing its own economic development machinery.
@anjing bau
More doubt on your representation of “reality” for Toronto:
http://www.thestar.com/Business/article/552532
The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. reported yesterday the city’s vacancy rate fell to 2.1 per cent this year, compared with 3.2 per cent last year. The drop comes on the heels of a Bank of Canada warning yesterday that some Canadians may lose their homes if the economic crisis gets worse.
“Rising home ownership costs combined with growing economic uncertainty has dampened Ontario home buying activity during 2008, particularly among first-time buyers,” said Ted Tsiakopoulos, CMHC regional economist.
Oh, yeah and to further put to rest that nonsense you’re spitting:
But CMHC’s latest data show the tighter rates are now moving firmly toward a landlord’s market.
The cost of renting an average two-bedroom rose 1.7 per cent this year to $1,095, as more would-be buyers sought rental housing. The Toronto Real Estate Board reported last week sales of existing homes fell 50 per cent in November compared with a year ago.
So fess up – you don’t live in T-Dot do you?
You commute in from Brampton or some such and think you have the right to rep the 416?
Give it up.
Why would anyone who isn’t gay live in Canada?
Why would anyone of any persuasion want to stay in a country that’s about to implode on it’s own debt?
El:
the US had far more debt load after WW2. Don’t be scared.
National debt perhaps but I would argue that it was federal and manageable.
120% household debt to disposable income + Said overloaded consumer equaling 70% of US GDP calculates to one horrendous mess for you all.
I expect it is going to be uglier than the WW2 debt for the simple reason that after the 2nd World War the US had a strong manufacturing base.
That got sold to China a while back.
There is no such thing as a “post industrial economy” except of course, if you are talking about a debt ridden semi functional entity that schleps through the steps to make the ever important coupon payment.
The only place I would live in Canada is Vancouver B.C. and that’s because I have been there many times and everytime I go there are many more women out than guys.
Didn’t Canada just give the autos some cash? What to the tune of 3 to 4 billion or something like that
Sure there is a post industrial economy. Its called the technology based economy. The US is still the leader in innovation, hands down!!! This economy is fucked up and the recession will deepen that’s why I am and stay a bear, but we will be the first to emerge from the rubble after the revolution that is on the way
http://www.ibankcoin.com/peanut_gallery/index.php/2008/11/20/innovate-this/
From where I type, it appears that the entire bull market from 94 on was nothing but based on leverage, more leverage and globalisation. The other fact of the matter is that the US doesn’t really innovate as much as it did. The whole “service economy” is bunk – was bunk – and will be bunk.
The innovators will probably come from where ever things are manufactured.
You must be new here with your “innovation talk”
let’s all spend 110% of our income. YAY!
A technology based economy would mean something is being manufactured.
http://www.economist.com/business/displayStory.cfm?story_id=12637160&source=hptextfeature
But the innovation doesn’t take hold unless someone buys it:
America also has another advantage: the extraordinary willingness of its consumers to try new things. Mr Bhidé insists that such “venturesome consumption” is a vital counterpart to the country’s entrepreneurial business culture.
If the US consumer can’t afford to “buy” the “innovation” then was it really innovation?
Found a gas leak. No heat for me!!!!
Time to freeze until death.
Developing…
Fly you could light a fire in the neighbors garbage can. And invite the MS guy who is out of a job. He can get used to the life of the man on the street
China can never be the home of innovation. Failure is not an option there. It is failure and overcoming it that drives innovation.
“Revolution is not a dinner party, nor an essay, nor a painting, nor a piece of embroidery; it cannot be advanced softly, gradually, carefully, considerately, respectfully, politely, plainly, and modestly. A revolution is an insurrection, an act of violence by which one class overthrows another.”
-Mao Zedong
I put a flaming barrel of garbage in my dining room. All is good.
Warm as a bug in a rug.
for lord’s sake let’s not start this shit about the US not being a manufafuring nation. What do you want, El for the garment business to return back to the US?
Never undersell the ability of the US to pick itself up and win the match.
The US makes lot’s of things. What it doesn’t do any longer is make low value added stuff.
If you want the US to become an even stronger manufacturing nation then ensure you remove such things as crippling taxes, allow accelerated deprecation allowances etc.
Here’s what O man needs to do to fix the US economy.
Don’t reduce , but eliminate corporate tax and make the congress sign an agreement that Federal spending will be fixed at the current rate in nominal terms for 15 years. Promise to leave everything alone from that point on.
Do that and by 2010 the recession will be a thing of the past.
Use the solenoids, Luke!
____
The dichotomy of The Fly’s life continues….much to the chagrin of The Fly
I hate being long FAZ (at the close Fri) then hearing all these bullish bullshit stories over the weekend.
Can I get a terrorist attck or something?
Jesus Christ, its not easy being a short anymore.
Christ, if people go back and read your piece 100 years from now, they will think we had never been trained in the fine arts of grammar and spelling.
Sorry about your heat.
Wood
Its Sunday morning and I hadnt had my coffee,sorry about that.
Enjoy today, there is no tomorrow when youre short FAZ.
Pain on the way?
Shed
Any chance of manning up and offering up that apology, or are you just to much of a big Mary as shown by your concern with spell/gram check on a blog?
Fuuuuuucccckk
Dec. 14 (Bloomberg) — China aims to increase its money supply 17 percent in 2009 and encourage lending to boost domestic consumption and buoy growth in the world’s fourth-largest economy.
M2, the broadest measure, including cash and all deposits, will increase 17 percent, the State Council said in a statement on its Web site. The government will also suspend the issue of three-year central-bank notes and aims to increase total financial-institution lending by 4 trillion yuan ($584 billion) next year, the statement said.
The People’s Bank of China is taking measures to boost liquidity and bank lending that the economy needs to sustain growth amid a global recession. The government last month announced 4 trillion yuan of spending through 2010 to spur more investment by municipalities and enterprises.
“Policy at the moment is generally being focused on boosting liquidity in the banking sector and making sure that is lent to fund investment in infrastructure projects,” Glenn Maguire, chief Asia-Pacific economist at Societe Generale SA in Hong Kong, said today.
Money supply gained 15 percent in October from a year earlier. China cut interest rates by the most in 11 years last month and has lowered the proportion of deposits that lenders must set aside as reserves. It has also scrapped temporary loan controls and sold fewer bills to try to boost liquidity.
China will boost policy-directed bank loans over the 2008 level of 100 billion yuan and will aim to increase total lending by financial institutions by 4 trillion yuan, said the statement, dated Dec. 8 and posted on the Web site late yesterday.
Corporate Bonds
One-year and three-month central bank notes will be issued less frequently, the statement said.
The government will encourage the expansion and development of corporate bonds, short-term financing bonds and medium-term notes, the statement said. Preference will be given to the issuance of bonds that fund infrastructure, post-earthquake construction and environmental protection, it said.
Banks should “give lending support to companies with relatively sound fundamentals, relatively good credit records, who are competitive, who have a market, who have orders but are having temporary operating or financial difficulties,” the statement said.
The government told banks to lend more to support areas in line with those promoted by government policy, including infrastructure, rural development, high technology and environmental technology. It also advised them to limit lending to processors and other industries that are big energy consumers.
Directions to Banks
“Commercial banks and other financial institutions should continue to deepen reforms of all kinds, improve management, internal controls and risk-prevention systems,” the statement said. “They should manage a balance between using finance to boost economic growth and guarding against financial risk; they should avoid being blindly reluctant to lend during an economic downturn.”
The statement also said new futures for commodities, including products including steel and grain, should be introduced to meet the needs of economic development.
The government will “take effective measures to stabilize the stock market,” the State Council statement said. Mainland China’s benchmark CSI 300 Index has lost 63 percent this year, making it the second-worst performer in Asia.
China will “increase flexibility” for lowering lending rates and also increase flexibility in foreign-exchange rates as it aims to maintain a “stable, balanced” yuan exchange rate, the statement said.
That’s called exporting deflation j.
Get used to it – the US has been doing it for years.
Now it’s coming back to the US.
I just tweeted this:
favor 10-yr US Treasury note income growth, safety, duration. Dec. 11 CNBC video @Eco_Feed Merrill Lynch 2009 Outlook http://twurl.nl/xuhixq
EL:
They’re not exporting inflation when they have a trade and current account surplus!
If china going to monetary expansion, so is Japan soon enough and then finally the Euros. Strap yourselves in folks as it’s going to be one hell of a ride.
One other thing which I’m not sure people noticed of Friday… both the 3 month Euro doll rate and the Ted spread at below 2, which may be way stocks didn’t fall as hard or why the Made off thingi and the UAW bailout had little effect. Especially the UAW bailout…. if that was so important TED wouldn’t have been unhappy.
THIS CHINA STORY IS PRETTY IMPORTANT SHIT.
DD,
When we don’t make new lows “this month” what are you going to do? Blow up? Go away?
Just wondering… because time is running out on your prediction. You want to amend it to say, “New lows by the end of winter?” or are you still sticking by “this month?”
-DT
Too bad you don’t know how to turn a wrench. One day soon your “mad trading skilz” will be worthless.
AN Mike, my comment was directed to the Fly.
j
Whats the trade? Break it down for a country boy.
Fly…I like this new live blog style.. I say keep doing these time stamps until Jan 1st Midnight! God Dammit!
You all need to stop watching the numbers coming out of China. They are made up by 5 guys in a room with a pencil and a direct link to the big boss who tells them what to write down. Nobody lies like the Chinese. The only thing as important as money is saving face. If their pants are on fire they will say they took a new Viagra and their dick is so hot it burst into flames. Chinese are lying sacks of shit.
I live in Thailand. Thai people are very nice, like to smile. Thai-Chinese, of course, lying sacks of shit. It’s genetic. The only way to tell what’s really going on in China is to monitor the number of riots. Look for rioting to gain momentum such that the government can not put a lid on the media reports. Then add to FXP with both hands.
Dale’s second half of the paragraph: WTFRACISM
dale isn’t far off the mark in a way, however. image is everything to chinese culture, and they do whatever it takes to maintain a favorable, if not superior, image.
Aris: there’s a big difference between what you just said and “Chinese are lying sacks of shit.”
What’s not image is the fact that they have more than $2 trillion US pesos.
I suspect that’s how they’re going to deal with their economic stimulus – deflate the US peso by spending theirs.
THEN, DD gets to be half right as the bottom falls out of the US economy after the whole freaking market has convinced itself that they have a “new era” of market stimulus.
Never underestimate the foolishness of those with short term memories.
I gotta side with mudkips on Dale’s racist comments.
Except that it was the whole comment – not half.
I need to see a pic of this radio. I didn’t see the attachment spoken of in the link to the Blue Radio post. My crappy radio has paint and what not dripped all over it and is from the early 90’s I think. I’m creating all sorts of images of this thing in my head and I really need to see the real thing!
Chinese people do lie their asses off. Plus they steal. Then go on to lie about it. Buying FXP under $40 like their world is on fire. Which it rightfully should be.