iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,376 Blog Posts

Staind – Mudshovel

[youtube:http://ru.youtube.com/watch?v=3RRboL_U320 450 300]

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My IQ is Higher Than Yours

Don’t get all uppity with yourself. It’s not the behaviour of a gentleman to brag or boast about your wins. Respect your fellow man and help him see the light.

Aside from that, I had another grande day, with wins to the left and wins to the right. Most of my day was spent discussing current events and the state of the NY Mets baseball team.

As far as the market goes: You cannot stop Senor Tropicana; you can only hope to contain him.

Speaking of which, the ‘illegal Mexicans’ that I hire to do my landscaping broke a few garden lights. The next time I see them, I will throw garden gnomes, with pipe bombs attached, at them.

At the end of the day, I bought more [[SKF]] . Without a doubt, the market will be knifing to new lows by fall.

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Beware of False Tells

Oil coming down is not necessarily a great thing, considering it means growth is slowing. And, the decline in commodities will do little for Asian inflation. They have wage inflation issues.

Select strength in tech stocks, like salesforce.com, inc. [[CRM]] and Apple Inc. [[AAPL]] , is not a tell for general market behavior. They are isolated plays, just like Dell Inc. [[DELL]] was back in 1997-1998, during the Asian contagion/LTCM crsis.

On the other hand, just because the banks are weak today, does not mean they cannot sprint higher tomorrow. Expand your time horizon to more than 1 month and you will look at things differently.

Most energy stocks are absurdly undervalued, due to the overly pessimistic outlook for crude. Everyone should own at least one oil stock, representing anywhere between 5-12% of your portfolio. We are now at good risk/reward levels.

Personally, I like National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] , Ultra Petroleum Corp. [[UPL]] , Arena Resources, Inc. [[ARD]] and ConocoPhillips [[COP]] .

Markets don’t bottom or top; they capitulate. In my estimation, we have yet to capitulate.

In closing, beware of weak volume advances or declines. In my opinion, right now, you should be prepping the battlefield for a September war.

Position yourself accordingly.

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Stocks Worth Shorting Now

Instead of rear view mirror blogging, I will offer you leeches a list of stocks to bet against now.

Currently, my theme is to bet against ‘global growth,’ especially China, while keeping a perpetual short bias on the banks.

Here are a few names for your consideration:

MI , China Life Insurance Company Ltd. (ADR) [[LFC]] , PetroChina Company Limited (ADR) [[PTR]] , Continental Airlines, Inc. [[CAL]] , Pzena Investment Management, Inc. [[PZN]] , [[FED]] , Cathay General Bancorp [[CATY]] , East West Bancorp, Inc. [[EWBC]] , Capital One Financial Corp. [[COF]] , Legg Mason, Inc. [[LM]] , Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. [[MLM]] , Vulcan Materials Company [[VMC]] , Texas Industries, Inc. [[TXI]] , Eagle Materials, Inc. [[EXP]] , Comerica Incorporated [[CMA]] and PacWest Bancorp [[PACW]] .

On the long side, I like BKS, Clean Energy Fuels Corp. [[CLNE]] , VeraSun Energy Corporation [[VSE]] , National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] , Yamana Gold Inc. (USA) [[AUY]] and The St. Joe Company [[JOE]]

Balanced pair trades include:

long USO/long UYG

long ROM/long SKF

long CHL/long FXP

long XOM/long DUG

short FXY/long DGP

long CHK/short UNG

long FCX/short GLD

UPDATE: Cramer just blamed the sell off in the banks on the SEC, for lifting the ban on shorting them. How absurd is that?

So, in other words, Cramer thinks bank stocks should go up indefinitely, regardless of the condition of the business?

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Bull vs. Bears

[youtube:http://ru.youtube.com/watch?v=rWIR_rOvcZs&feature=related 450 300]

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My Condolences Go Out to You Bank Lovers

Come on now. You didn’t think “The Fly” was going to be wrong forever, did you? Long term readers of this site should know: “The Fly” wins all the time, even when he appears to be digging his own grave.

All of a sudden, my appetite to curse grows, as the Dow power dives lower, spearheaded by the morons in velvet suits (bank CEO’s wear velvet suits).

Let’s see what I have going on:

short Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. [[LEH]] , short TCF Financial Corporation [[TCB]] , short Morgan Stanley [[MS]] , short Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] , short [[FED]] , short Pacific Capital Bancorp [[PCBC]] , short Cathay General Bancorp [[CATY]] , short Vulcan Materials Company [[VMC]], short Bank of America Corporation [[BAC]] and long [[SKF]] , [[SRS]] and [[FXP]] .

See pal, that’s who I am and you’re nothing.

Go ahead and keep playing with your straight edge. Be sure to keep your head deep in the sand. In the meantime, I’ll continue to bomb your flabby torso from 10,000 feet above, traveling at supersonic speeds.

In other news, some of my longs are following the convoy of hell lower, namely Wachovia Corporation [[WB]] and Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. [[CMG]] . With CMG, my stop is one point lower. With regards to WB: I will sell it at $30 or $10.

In closing, I would like to thank all of the bullish bulls out there, for providing me with the jet fuel to bomb you, via crushing your erroneous long positions.

Remember boys and girls, we’re in a bear market—not a bull.

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Whatever

I’m not impressed. This is just more of the same chicanery.

One day we’re up 200, the next we’re down. Wake me up when this dog licks 11,000.

Sure the banks did a synchronized dive into an empty pool. Still, I am not enthralled.

In short, I made loads of coin today. Even my longs went up, with exception to KB Home [[KBH]] and Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. [[CMG]] .

Nonetheless, I am not convinced of the bears’ conviction yet.

With my money, for the day, I bought more [[SKF]] , [[SRS]] , shorted Bank of America Corporation [[BAC]] , shorted [[FED]] , shorted Pacific Capital Bancorp [[PCBC]] , shorted Cathay General Bancorp [[CATY]] and a little Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] for the hell of it.

Nothing major. Just a bunch of floaters to make me feel better about myself.

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Let’s Go To War

With the elections around the corner and John (Rambo) McCain as a candidate, it’s a good idea to be long military stocks, especially with Russia getting all besides themselves with their low-end tanks in the Caucuses.

In short, once upon a time, “The Fly” was thoroughly versed in the industrial-military complex. I have vast experience in buying/selling the names, dating back to the Civil War (“The Fly” was a stock broker in all of his previous lives).

I like the unmanned aircraft producers, which include ARGON ST, Inc. [[STST]] and AeroVironment, Inc. [[AVAV]] . Some of the big dogs produce unmanned aircrafts too, but it represents a small portion of overall revenue.

In addition, I like all of the big players, which include: General Dynamics Corporation [[GD]] , Lockheed Martin Corporation [[LMT]] , Alliant Techsystems Inc. [[ATK]] , L-3 Communications Holdings, Inc. [[LLL]] and Northrop Grumman Corporation [[NOC]] .

Some niche/marginal players include:

FLIR Systems, Inc. [[FLIR]] , Force Protection, Inc. [[FRPT]] , Ka0man Corporation [[KAMN]] , TransDigm Group Incorporated [[TDG]] , American Science & Engineering, Inc. American Science & Engineering, Inc. American Science & Engineering, Inc. [[ASEI]] , Esterline Technologies Corporation [[ESL]] , Ceradyne, Inc. [[CRDN]] , HEICO Corporation [[HEI]] and Textron Inc. [[TXT]] , who is also a producer unmanned aircrafts.

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