All of the “important people” have closed out 2008, with huge losses or minor gains. Most people I know have zero interest in navigating the last few weeks of a horrific year, considering all of the tax loss selling and soon to be going out of business hedge fund industry.
There will be forced selling, coupled with asshole fund managers desperately trying to throw hail mary’s, in order to save their jobs.
They will not value pick. These idiots need fast money FAST. They will try to jerk heavily shorted names, like BKE, higher. Also, they will dump capital into commodity plays, trying to regain magic in a bottle.
The only problem: that strategy will fail, thanks to the millions of people who have been flame broiled in those names this year. Sometime soon, there will be waves of tax loss selling, that will punch the fucking mustaches off of those who are buying dips.
Nonetheless, do not expect to have fun trading this market, any time soon.
As for me:
I still have a few victories to claim in 2008. I might not make any huge bets, coming down the stretch. But, I will set myself up for egregious victories, during the first two weeks of the New Year.
As you know, “The Fly” always begins the New Year with success. To be honest, I can’t remember the last New Year when I did not knock the cover off the ball, if I might be so bold as to say so.
With regards to oil:
The ramifications of knifing oil prices have not affected the stock prices of the big oil producers, like XOM and CVX, yet. There seems to be some sort of idiotic theory running around that oil is poised to double, in a matter of weeks. That’s asinine. Furthermore, anyone who invests like that should be forced to invest with Maddoff, right now.
NOTE: This is my last post for the trading session. I have many errands to attend to.
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Fly is God
Fly,
How about some Cubans for celebration?
http://www.cigarsinternational.com/proddisp.asp?item=CS-03A&stext=cuban
They are having a discount…I’m going to get me that and smoke on the x-mas party
“There seems to be some sort of idiotic theory running around that oil is poised to double, in a matter of weeks. That’s asinine.”
I want to strangle these motherfuckers!
i bought some DUG today. just a small amount. the long oil trade is bogus.
Hail Mary’s are gay!
Fuck the oil play. Also, I’ve sold out of FAZ and SRS big gains, and will nibble on GM, planning to blow out of it in a day or two.
Thanks Master Fly, have a good one.
Citing “a rapid deterioration of U.S. Alt-A RMBS performance,” Fitch Ratings again took the hatchet to its previous assumptions for Alt-A mortgages on Monday morning, revising its surveillance methodology and updating loss projections for all U.S. Alt-A RMBS.
Fitch said it now expects losses on all Alt-A collateral to far exceed the estimates of its ‘moderate stress’ scenario in its late ratings update earlier this year. “Market developments, ongoing home-price declines and loan performance trends in the Alt-A sector over the prior six months have effectively eliminated the possibility of this stress scenario,”
The rating agency said it now expects average cumulative losses om 2005, 2006 and 2007 vintage Alt-A transactions to hit 2.72, 6.78 and 9.58 percent, respectively, up dramatically from expectations at the agency earlier this year.
Fitch cited a “rapid increase in 60+ day delinquencies experienced over the past six months,” despite servicers’ collective efforts to hold off on actual foreclosure sales — likely implying that a halt to foreclosures is having little effect in resolving borrower delinquencies. Between May and October 2008, Fitch said that 60+ day delinquencies for the 2007 vintage increased from 8.80 percent to 14.65 percent; 2006 and 2005 vintages also experienced steep increases rising from 10.30 percent to 14.24 percent and 6.57 percent to 8.79 percent, respectively.
All of which means that it’s time to get ready for a whole new slew of downgrades to Alt-A in the coming few weeks. Fitch warned in its note Monday that it expects that it will downgrade many senior bonds to below investment grade — just in time for fourth quarter earnings.
http://www.housingwire.com/2008/12/15/fitch-alt-a-mortgages-deteriorating-more-rapidly-than-expected/
XOM is using their seed corn to defend the stock price. I give it another month or two of sub $50 oil.
Just polished my chrome wheels on my rides. Fuck trading. Time reward sucks.
90% of tax loss selling is done.
If I had big ass losses I would sell half this year and half in the new year.
Whatever it may be, the only thing I know is they will not give neighbor Steve a chance to get out.
I’ll bet you that if the shoe throwing Iraqi had hit George between the eyes, the market would be celebrating with a 1,000 point up day.
Damn Iraqis. How are these people going to manage a county by themselves? They can’t even hit a stupid moron with a hurled shoe from a distance of 10 paces. Sheesh.
If George had a sense of humor, he’d hang a shoe on each ear prior to getting on the stage for Obama’s inauguration.
IMO, tax losses won’t be a big factor for the rest of this year because there aren’t that many gains to protect.
The Iraqi standing next to George did not even flinch – odd, no?
Crude down 9% from the highs today, what a joke.
Has anyone seen Ducati?
I last saw him with JJ – they were headed off to buy some SWC at $20.
FAZ interesting here.
XL is a roll of rhe dice here.
Last chance to escape the funnel.
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This tape is untradable.
your on the right side of the tape Jake….watch what happens when the Fear Bubble pops…that will provide a great oppurtunity to get short from higher levels….
Jake – you turn bearish? I thought you were advocating a bottom was being carved out?
They want to keep it in the up channel, to keep suckers in.
http://img179.imageshack.us/my.php?image=decchannelqf2.png
The Bubble Boy (Seinfeld) likes The Funnel.
my good blind friend eye no stuff, the iraqi you mentioned is actually palestineian and a fellow “healer”
Boom —
It’s a flea infested bear funnel.
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Cubs — is that “World Of Warcraft” commercial embedded in there just for you?
Or do they just know your friends? 😉
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Hmm, that’s weird Jake. I had a MLB.com commercial embedded. They must go by the users cookies 😀
So Dr. Mengele – Why didn’t your Palestinian buddy just put on a rubber glove, rush the podium, and give George a quick prostate exam on live Iraqi TV?
Shorts are in the funnel
Vince will be hawking Sham-Soylent Green by spring.
Write it down.
Cubs — lol. Touche.
It sense I am an “old line nerd” even though I do not mess with the online role playing crap.
Probably noted how much I’m logged on to this site…
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I’m a victim – Bernie took me for a couple of bill and I am the smart money – odd, no?
Sham Soylent Green:
Look at what I’m doing… look! I’m putting grandmaw into the funnel!
And look here at the other side! Look! Yes, folks, that’s grade A hamburger ready for the grill!
Sham Wow!
Vince sez:
It’s made by the Germans, and you know they make good stuff…
WTF?? That Iraqi who threw the shoes had a good arm, both shoes traveled the exact same trajectory, and would have hit f@ckwhit right between the eyes if he hadn’t ducked. If he was throwing rocks he would have pummelled that pos.
Gov. Chuckles of NY wants to have an “obesity” tax on non-diet soda. Fly better be careful with that high calorie Monster drink. I guess New Yorkers get what they deserve by voting these people in year after year.
http://www.taxfoundation.org/blog/show/24057.html
he needed to leave he was late for his other job… getting dates for your sister.
I put a sale @55 on some FAZ – shoulda just dumped it around $52. I think this will be an up week – rate cut + auto bailout should cause a rally.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/how-to-save-detroit/
TC – a higher tax on the non-diet soda should mean lower corn prices.
Drink diet soda and get cheaper tortilla chips – a double win.
I am back.
Cramer is a fucking idiot.
Let it be known.
^ general knowledge
No, tonight he hit a new low with the Katie Perry shit.
He’s like some pathetic old dude trying to be cool.
Actually he is (a pathetic old dude)!
i cant believe that guy still has his job…and he still pounds his chest as he has been right this whole time..
Master Fly, this Madoff shit is making me nervous. Should I be?
I’m up 76% for the year. My primary reason for victory was I was on the cash sideline for the first six months of the year until I: 1) went a little long on some badly punished financials in July and then sold them at the end of september (not so long after all), 2) trading the gaps upward in october after some of those insanely low levels, and 3) Riding up the turkey rally and bailing at the beginning of December. I’m sidelined in cash for the rest of the year. I just don’t have any good sense of direction in the stock market until the october lows are retested, probably sometime in the first quarter. Those are my amateur convictions, but hey, they can change right?
vadodara loves the fly.