If Anything, Let Oil Be Your Hedge

I am getting my teeth kicked in, holding [[DIG]] , [[IEO]] , Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. [[FCX]] and Western Refining, Inc. [[WNR]] —amongst others. However, my scientific blend of shorts:longs has resulted in a 1.9% gain—intra-day.

On days like this, it’s important to evaluate your portfolio. This is the stress test that will determine how prepared/unprepared you are. If you are having a very bad day, you are too long. On the other hand, if you are up too much, be careful and throw some longs on the sheets.

Reason being: the market never cooperates. The market is filled with idiotic participants (Vince Farell) who diligently work to delay the inevitable. It’s like one big game of chicken. Who will turn first?

I’ll have you know, “The Fly” drives a mean time machine, armed with machine guns and internet laser beams, capable of “junking” his opponents into a small stack of garbage.

Currently, I have no reason to make a move. My allocation is perfect—not too risky nor conservative. Best case scenario, oil runs and banks crap out. However, I don’t think that will happen anytime soon.

Look at National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] and ask yourself: “would I rather own that business or Citigroup Inc. [[C]] ?” Then make your move.

Going into the close, I will try to short Pzena Investment Management, Inc. [[PZN]] and Legg Mason, Inc. [[LM]] . Both of them have a lot further to drop. Also, I am short Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] . That stock is trading “graveyard grim.”

NOTE: PZN is going to zero, in my humble opinion.

Hank Paulson, Bailout Guy, U.S Government, Goldman Sachs

Hey people. There is no moral hazard. Our financial system is the envy of the world. Do yourselves a favor and go buy some bank stocks, especially Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] , or we’ll kick you out of your homes (we own them now) and kill you.

Dealbreaker has a nice summary outlining who got screwed by Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. [[LEH]] . However, as you know, the media is so past Lehman. That is very early September 2008.

Instead, let’s focus on a possible American International Group, Inc. [[AIG]] buyout. After all, should AIG get bought out, that would mean everything is gravy train again, no? By the way, AIG is not down 60% for the day; it’s up 50% from the lows. I guess you didn’t get the memo.

This all brings us to tomorrow’s Fed meeting:

In light of Wall Street’s non-stop whining over a rate cut, I am beginning to think Bernanake may actually do it. Logic dictates the Fed would be stark raving mad to lower rates. However, that never stopped them before.

So, with this in mind, sadly, I will cease shorting banks(for the day) and put my money towards depressed oil shares.

At the present, [[SKF]] is my largest position and I would love to buy more—for I think it’s worth $140, easy. But, I need to remind myself how stupid all of the dip buyers are, with their Crameresque mannerisms and Larry Kudlow patience.

Temper your moves with extended breaks. Go for a walk. Eat a sandwich and drink a 40oz. of malt liquor. By the time you come back, the market will be at the lows of the day, effectively poleaxing all of the idiots with online trading accounts.

To sum things up: I will hold my powder, until 3:30. If I buy anything, it will be Western Refining, Inc. [[WNR]] or [[DIG]] . Let’s not get all gay and start saying “markets bottom on these type of events.” That is just plain huckery and untrue.

NOTE: How amusing would it be to see the MER and CFC acquisitions put BAC into receivership?

NOTE II: The mandatory Buffett rumor has been dismissed as lies. Shocker.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jgjVJJ0vH7w&feature=related 450 300]

Hey, let’s raise rates (remember that?). I believe it was the Fast Money gang (Guy Adami) who was suggesting we might enjoy a massive 3rd quarter rally, spearheaded by CDO markups. Buy the banks, no?

Where are the Warren Buffett rumors? Every time the market dumps out, they pull Buffett out of a potato sack and spread scurrilous rumors about his pending “white knight” investment. It never pans out. Buffett is old and cranky. He hates bailing people out, let alone buy himself a decent suit.

Shall we ignore AIG‘s trillion dollar meltdown?

I swear, men with charts should be sent to military work camps. As soon as the vix hit 30, buyers started stepping in. If you really think about it, men with charts are pretty much the dumbest people on the face of the earth, right below spastic retards, who buy Wells Fargo & Company [[WFC]] and U.S. Bancorp [[USB]] , in florescent orange jumpsuits.

The Fed will not cut rates tomorrow. However, in the event that they do, my oil stocks will surge. Either way, I win, at least half way.

At the present, I find it acceptable to lose money in my oils, providing my bank shorts eat pavement.

The next boot to drop has to be in commerical real estate. I have contacts in the field and almost all of them think they are immune. They have a certain smugness about their business and it irritates “The Fly.” These people are mentally impaired—I’ll have you know. On this display of hubris, I want to sell short Vornado Realty Trust [[VNO]] , Boston Properties, Inc. [[BXP]] , Simon Property Group, Inc [[SPG]] and SL Green Realty Corp. [[SLG]] or just get lazy and go long [[SRS]] .

Finally, I think it’s important to note the bag holders of American International Group, Inc. [[AIG]] equity. Here are a few publicly traded companies, who have massive AIG common stock on their books:

AXA (ADR) [[AXA]] : 161 million shares

State Street Corporation [[STT]] : 96 million shares

Barclays PLC (ADR) [[BCS]] : 94 million shares

The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation [[BK]] : 31 million shares

Legg Mason, Inc. [[LM]] : 29 million shares

Northern Trust Corporation [[NTRS]] : 29 million shares

T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. [[TROW]] : 23 million shares

Janus Capital Group Inc. [[JNS]] : 19 million shares

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] : 17 million shares

Morgan Stanley [[MS]] : 16 million shares

Bank of America Corporation [[BAC]] : 16 million shares.

Look at everyone trying to describe this 150mph head on collision as some sort of final capitulation, a buying opportunity. Watch them talk garbagio about how insignificant Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. [[LEH]] was and how if we just close our eyes, we will not see American International Group, Inc. [[AIG]] melt away.

Bank of America Corporation [[BAC]] just threw an oversized anvil on their shareholders, via buying Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. [[MER]] —at way too high of a price. We all know they could have bought them for like 10 billion. Instead, I guess they thought it made “sense” to take the life savings of coal miners and school teachers in order to buy them for 44 billion.

Right, that makes sense.

Enough of the news; let’s talk turkey.

On this little tiny dip, I will buy more [[SKF]] . There is no way in hell those bastards from Wells Fargo & Company [[WFC]] ] should be green, yet they are. Look for Citigroup Inc. [[C]] and Bank of America Corporation [[BAC]] to continue to drive SKF higher, especially with all the arbs on BAC now.

Also, Legg Mason, Inc. [[LM]] is wrong, as usual. I will try to short more.

And, I will begin to short AXA (ADR) [[AXA]] . These European noodles have investment risk everywhere. They are as stupid as Pzena Investment Management, Inc. [[PZN]] , only 1,000 times bigger. Just know, AXA is long 132 million shares of American International Group, Inc. [[AIG]] .

Wonderful.

Finally, my head is being “Talibanned” off via egregiously weak oil stocks. From [[DIG]] to Western Refining, Inc. [[WNR]] , pain is abundant. At the moment, I am closing my eyes to the weakness, sort of like how Cramer only likes to accentuate his green stocks, while his “charitable portfolio” is down 25%, year to date.

Luckily for me, my “uncharitable portfolio” is up more than 40%.

Top pick: SKF

UPDATE IV: Sorry for the damn site going offline (I really wish I could curse right now). I have no idea what happened. My guess, Lehman Brothers got all pissed about my “fortune cookie curse” on them and ordered a web assault on iBC. Apparently, our fate is intertwined with Lehman.

Mini Update within a bigger Update: The site was hacked down by egregious iBankers. We are fighting them on the internets. Developing…

Odd, no?

Anyway, BAC just made a massive error, through buying MER. Essentially, the Fed is forcing them to do this deal. Everyone knows, they can get MER for $15 or less. Instead, they are trying to paint the pig gold and tell us it’s a golden bowling ball. It’s not. It’s a stupid pig with gold pain on it.

With that in mind, expect to see BAC at new lows, within weeks. And, on a big spike, I might short some MER, based upon the insane theory that BAC shareholders may say “hmmm, this deal blows, cancel it now.”

Basically, BAC is the biggest bagholder known to modern finance. I am sure Cramer will find the silver lining inside the nuclear bomb crater and suggest we go out and buy banks, again.

Then we have AIG. KKR and JC Flowers just walked away from a tentative deal with them. Basically, they need to raise $40 billion, in order to avoid a credit downgrade. Because of this, they want the Fed to give them a bridge loan of $40 billion: ROFL.

Are they nuts?

Finally, the hapless banks are concocting some new liquidity pool, in order to create liquidity. Shocker. Ignore their efforts and buy SRS, SKF and short LM, with great vigor.

The market should get stomped out tomorrow, led by free falling banks and massive drop in the dollar.

UPDATE III: Merrill’s board is voting on a $29 per share offer (all stock) from BofA. If this dilutive deal goes through, expect the shares of BAC to get mudstomped. This is a highly irresponsible move, on behalf of BofA. I am sure their shareholders would appreciate it if they could wait until Tuesday to negotiate a buy out price. My guess, they could bag MER for $10 or less, if they keep their cool.

UPDATE II: In light of the probable unwinding that will occur, here is a short list of Lehman Brothers’ top holdings:

General Electric Company [[GE]]

Pfizer Inc. [[PFE]]

Target Corporation [[TGT]]

UBS AG (USA) [[UBS]]

Linn Energy, LLC [[LINE]]

GLG Partners, Inc. [[GLG]]

Merck & Co., Inc. [[MRK]]

Microsoft Corporation [[MSFT]]

[[CME]]

Bank of America Corporation [[BAC]]

Apple Inc. [[AAPL]]

Flagstone Reinsurance Holdings Limited [[FSR]]

WellPoint, Inc. [[WLP]]

Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. [[WMT]]

Exxon Mobil Corporation [[XOM]]

UnitedHealth Group Inc. [[UNH]]

Google Inc. [[GOOG]]

Johnson & Johnson [[JNJ]]

Baidu.com, Inc. (ADR) [[BIDU]]

UPDATE: Should AIG catch a credit downgrade, they will face a 46 billion dollar cash call: ROFL. That’s like Dr. Evil type money. God help us.

S&P futures indicate a 36 point drop (3%), thus far. CDS spreads have widened by 30 basis points.

NOTE: As soon as I can start cursing again, Dick Bove is getting a “lifetime achievement” As*hat Award.

Developing…

UPDATE III: AIG is desperately seeking to raise 30-40 billion, in order to avert a credit downgrade. Also, with a few hours left until Asian trading begins, I believe it is fair to say Lehman will be liquidated. We are living in interesting times.

Should BofA go ahead and take out MER, expect the wagons to circle MS.

Whatever the outcome, just know, you will remember the last trading year for the duration of your lives, with great clarity. History books will reference this era and label it and the people in the forefront as “stupid,” “gay” and everything in between.

UPDATE II: Apparently, all buyers have walked away from LEH. And, to muddy the waters a little further, [[BAC]] may buy MER for $25-30 per share. How will the street digest the collapse of LEH, while another major investment bank catches a 100% premium bid? I have no idea.

One thing is certain, a BofA buyout of MER is a defensive one. They (banking fools) are trying to eliminate future headline risk.

UPDATE: Just to recap this weekends developments:

Paulson and Co. refused to bailout the buyer of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. [[LEH]] , whomever it may be. As a result, Barclays PLC (ADR) [[BCS]] has walked away from talks. And, rumor has it, so will Bank of America Corporation [[BAC]] .

The closer we get to Asian trading, the greater the likelihood Lehman may fortune cookie its way into a bankruptcy filing.

Video UPDATE: Cramer’s real position on housing, a few years back. I am sure he would like this video pulled.

Poof. Your stupid gasoline supplies are gone.

-Merlin

NOTE: Crack spreads are now north of $70!!!

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nPaLuzmhxTk]

Great Depression music. We will all listen to this crap, when poor.

Enjoy.