18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,304 Blog Posts

Betting on a Blowup

Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. [[LEH]] is screaming mercy. However, men who are short, like “The Fly,” will offer them no quarter.

They get the feared and unbelievably ominous black flag.

Into such weakness, it makes sense to be cautious and remember how corrupt the government is, with their egregious lending facilities. Like I said before, if you have been buried under losses, short the market while it spiked, now is the time to lower the volume and take a respite.

For me, I’m all about pressing the envelope, until it can be pressed no more.

Naturally, I have long positions to hedge against my shorts. However, I am willing to bet, with a certain amount of certitude, we go substantially lower.

Consider [[SKF]] around $133: it is cheap. I believe, under benign conditions, SKF should trade $140-145. The gains in the banks will not hold, because they cannot. Bear markets do not end quickly. And, when a sector gets blown out, it does not recovery immediately.

If you must, consider last year to be like 1989,while today is similar to 1990. We still have downside.

Right here, with new money, I would sell short Comerica Incorporated [[CMA]] , Las Vegas Sands Corp. [[LVS]] , First Horizon National Corporation [[FHN]] , Pzena Investment Management, Inc. [[PZN]] and Continental Airlines, Inc. [[CAL]] .

On the long side, I would buy National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] , Barnes & Noble, Inc. [[BKS]] and Transocean Inc. [[RIG]] .

Also, for a huge dice roll, I hear decent things on [[PKT]] .

Comments »

Fly Sells: CMA, FHN

I sold short 2,000 First Horizon National Corporation [[FHN]] @ $10.75. And, I sold short 1,000 Comerica Incorporated [[CMA]] @ $28.

Disclaimer: If you short the above stocks because of this post, you will believe everything CNBC broadcasts. And, you may lose money.

Comments »

Women and Children: Time to Get Off

This is your stop, if you are a woman or small boy, playing this market.

“Geez Fly, what’s with the chauvinistic jargon? It’s not befitting of a 21st century gentleman,” you query.

Well, Sir, “The Fly” is old school and still believes women and children should be protected from the vicious and cruel world of money management. Although, in my experience, I have found women to be far brighter and more in tune with reality than men; I still like to protect them.

Call me heterosexual.

We’ve had a fantastic run on the short side, over the past few days. [[FXP]] is at $100 and [[SKF]] is through the roof. Granted, SKF is still well off its highs. You had ample opportunity to shadow “The Fly” with buys, down to the $108 level.

In addition, most of my banks shorts are up anywhere between 15-20%, in recent days.

Bottom line: Pressing bets, after such big moves, is a mans job. You know, act all ignorant, think with your balls, not your head, type of task. It’s like fixing your car, even though you have no idea what you’re doing. You’re just taking off bolts, wiping the grease off your face and wallah: fixed.

If you are not able to take on big risk, cover your shorts here; take a seat and watch real men play tackle football, with no equipment, inside a concrete parking lot.

Top pick: short Pzena Investment Management, Inc. [[PZN]] , if possible.

Comments »

My Balls Win Again

You see the balls of bulls rolling downhill, right? They’ve been eviscerated aka they’re guts ripped out, in the most inhumane way, via large capital losses.

It’s too late to stop it. There is too much momentum to the downside. If you’re long banks; you’ve been “debo’d,” deal with it.

You can’t say I didn’t warn you. “The Fly” gave you the blueprint. However, you chose to believe a ruler and a chart.

Anyway, as you can see, the retards at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. [[LEH]] , East West Bancorp, Inc. [[EWBC]] , Pacific Capital Bancorp [[PCBC]] , Cathay General Bancorp [[CATY]] , Bank of America Corporation [[BAC]] , TCF Financial Corporation [[TCB]] , Legg Mason, Inc. [[LM]] , Marshall & Ilsley Corporation Marshall & Ilsley Corporation [[Mi]] , Morgan Stanley [[MS]] , Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. [[MER]] , Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] and Vulcan Materials Company [[VMC]] are showering me with gifts of joy and freshly minted currency.

Early estimates say China will only grow at 7% this year. If so, that is far below consensus. My guess, the U.S. exporter gets a bowling ball to the scrotum, before the year is out.

Don’t you apes get it? The economy sucks. What, you want stocks to go up, while everything else burns to a cinder? I don’t think so.

Long story short: I kicked out my NutriSystem Inc. [[NTRI]] this morning for a quick gain. And, I am trying to borrow more Pzena Investment Management, Inc. [[PZN]] , to no avail. At this moment in time, I still like [[REW]] , [[SKF]] , [[FXP]] and [[SRS]] .

Cramer Bash Update: I love this stuff.

[youtube:http://ru.youtube.com/watch?v=bL4SFCe1rzA 450 300]

Comments »

Another Bottom Called

This just in…

Vince ‘the bottom caller’ Farrell did the unbelievable today. He called a future bottom, saying: “we are going to retest the July 15th lows. Then, we will bottom.”

How insightful.

iBankCoin wins again.

Comments »

Bulls Get Debo’d All Day Long

It’s far too nice in NYC for me to hang around with a bunch of stiffs, living the “office life.” I’m off to the pool or some other outdoor activity, yet to be decided.

“The Fly” had a masterful trading day, with gains all over the place. Let me remind you, I find great pleasure betting against the world’s premier investment bank: Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] .

For the day, my gains topped 4.5% (as of 3:00 pm), led by shorts in Vulcan Materials Company [[VMC]] ,, Marshall & Ilsley Corporation [[Mi]] , Zions Bancorporation [[ZION]] , Cathay General Bancorp [[CATY]] , East West Bancorp, Inc. [[EWBC]] , Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. [[MER]] , Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. [[LEH]] and a variety of inverse etf’, like [[FXP]] .

In addition, I bulked up my selling efforts in LM, as the once brilliant fund manager, Bill Miller, ups his stake in Freddie Mac [[FRE]] . How egregious?

Regarding the markets, I know we will hit new lows. All of this chatter of a ‘global slowdown’ has not been factored into the earnings estimates of our multi-nationals. The loss of revenue, from a global slowdown, far outweighs the gains to be had in a commodity collapse.

Remember, most companies are locked into long term contracts, regarding basic materials and crude. Therefore, copper can drop by 2/3rds right now, and it wouldn’t mean a lick for XYZ’s bottom line.

In short, get drunk and prepare to ride this tidal wave down to 10,850 by mid September.

Comments »

Fly Buy: REW

I bought 2,000 [[REW]] @ $59.90

Comments »

Fly Sells: LM, Mi, CATY, PZN

I sold short 5,000 Legg Mason, Inc. [[LM]] @ $41.45, 5,000 Marshall & Ilsley Corporation [[Mi]] @ $15.10, 2,000 Cathay General Bancorp [[CATY]] @ $20.05 and 500 Pzena Investment Management, Inc. [[PZN]] @ $9.22.

Disclaimer: Shorting stocks is for river boat gamblers.

Comments »