I’m glad to see this Monday fuckfest over with. I had to deal with all sorts of misfits, fucking up my mojo, attempting to “put in another bottom.”
You stupid fucking bastards.
Nothing worked today, unless you were short crude. Big strength in GS and MS, while death knocked at BAC‘s door. Commercial Re stocks were getting buried this morning, only to forge ahead with, yet another, late date rally, effectively fucking my SRS position.
Basically, everyone loses on days like today.
All of you reflation fuckers got punched in the nuts, with TBT knifing lower. And, amazingly, XOM finished up, while oil closed at the lows. There is some real fishy, fishy business going on; I don’t like it one bit.
The Government is getting all protectionist and shit, looking to raise taxes, in egregious Smoot Hawley fashion. And, at the same time, there are many of you who believe the current economic decline is a standard run of the mill, nothing to see here, downturn.
Good day to you, Sir. Indeud.
At the end of the day, I am right and you are wrong. Just fess up to the fact that you are not better than me, not now, not ever. The market was tossed into the back of a Caddy, then shot 9 times, all the while you were declaring “buy the dips.”
Sure, the market may bounce, here or there, or even everywhere. But, when all matters are considered, “The Fly” games this fucking market like a pimp in a town full of unrepresented whores.
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The Fly is God.
what is the source of all your anger?
It’s the damn hip hop.
…shorting gold made coin today.
BANG !!! What the f is up with this killer site??
Smash stocks….
Squeezes are opportunities. SRS always fails after a 3 day run — regardless of price.
Problem is most REITs are dead without loan extensions. Enter on squeezes — sell after 3 day run — how many times can you buy at 48 and sell at 63 this year? Probably 2x a month.
The Fly” games this fucking market like a pimp in a town full of unrepresented whores.
CLASSIC!
One day SRS will run and not look back.
Yes it will. But that might take a while. For now, stick with DUG!!!
End of transmission from Mars.
Fly, SRS is an instrument of the devil! Short the specific names, too much fuckery in inverse and leveraged etf’s.
Remember, you swore off the crack!
I’m done with fooling around with the leveraged inverse ETF insanity. Going “old school” and shorting ICF and individual REITs. Wasn’t that what you were going to do also?
Market is a bitch
Make e-trade rich on your trades
Sweeping floors by may.
Conjunctions are not necessary following a semi-colon.
alph
after i make it out of these bastards alive.
Can i borrow some of your bearish whores (essentially puts), i promise ill short them now and buy those unrepresented whoring puts later after the bounce is complete.
Funny how through bloomberg, GS is giving advice to buy (S&P) March 825 puts and sell March 745 puts.
At first it seems reasonable to take the bet. But considering GS were advicing to buy bs paper while shorting, and even the oil to 200 bs (while, probably, lowering their oil futures), im sure there is a tactic.
I will try to post on peanut gallery elaborating on my long-term views soon.
Is BAC on the death bed? I’ve been looking at Feb 2.5 puts and lots of volume there today.
ho bout buing fas at the open under 8.50 that seamed to work for a nice trade or shoting your srs at about 3:00 damn this market is hard
It doesn’t matter if you’re rich or poor as long as you’ve got money
GS maybe strong but somebody bought 1000 black swan puts on those mofos for Jan ’10…
dude with common sense
Har, de har do har rar far car blar. Sar, ham, which, sand, burger.
It’s raising TARIFFS, Fly. And they don’t have do that.
Just close all the ports and seal all our borders. After bringing ALL our troops home from every overseas base, by Easter.
And let the banks and brokers GO BUST, and PRINT FUCKIN MONEY hand over fist.
I can sum up Fly’s post in 4 simple words.
Whoever guesses those words correctly first can treat themselves to a free Denny’s Grand Slam breakfast tomorrow.
Walter Cronkite would know the way out of this clamjaphery.
Wal-Ter!
Cron-
KITE!
Indeud.
_________
The Jan ’10 $2.50 puts on GS are an aggressive call.
lol at 2.50 calls
better odds than lotto.
SRS tends to bleed value over time, but shorting the REITs directly has a similar problem due to the high (but declining) distributions they are paying.
The notion that SRS and the other diETFs are strictly daytrades, to be sold well before the close, has become very widespread. That is a good setup for a nasty (for some)surprise extended run to the upside.
Setups don’t guarantee follow-through, of course.
I’m of the opinion (admittedly with no evidence) that there is some big money that has been playing some arbitrage games with the diETFs and the major holdings of the related indices.
Everyone has grown to expect SRS to be volatile, somehow forgetting that the value of SRS depends on stocks like SPG that have no reason to show the same kind of intraday price swings that SRS has:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SPG#chart3:symbol=spg;range=5d;compare=srs;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
The chart above shows some really heavy late-day volume spikes in SPG, too. I haven’t looked to see if that has become the norm for SPG, or just happened to occur a few times in the last week.
shed,
Right you are; and here’s a smiley face for you.
Go fuck a pencil sharpener.
Holding basic materials and industrial plays for a bounce, at a ridiculously low cost basis. 20% cash. Regional banks look ready to bounce here. Considering PBI for a short, waiting for entry. Fuck off, Newman.
i think part of the late volume of the underlying names in the double and triple ETFs is due to the EOD hedging/position closing by the entities that write the swaps that comprise those ETFs.
Those $2.50 puts at $0.15, are basically a 17:1 bet on them going to zero. Only a sucker likes those odds. There’s actually more bang for the buck in the $5’s. Hell, even BSC didn’t go to zero.
dude, please spend some time after cashing in the profits to learn how to use a suffix and perhaps read up on how a particle placed after the root of a word to form an oblique case of a noun works…….a tense of a verb, a derivative adjective, adverb or when and how to add a letter or syllable at the end of a word.
just a suggestion…..
Karen Finerman just said she thinks bank equity should be wiped out…..she, bought C at 21.00 and WaMu at 3.60 (4 days before it was disolved to 0.00)
yeh, of course she thinks that now, since she has already lost her ass and is fully “out” of all bank stocks……
The Artist:
What a faggy lesson.
Mars.
Aris:
Could be.
However, if the hedging/closing by the swaps writers was responsible for the late-day volume spike, I’d expect the spike to be more pronounced on low-volume days (Jan 27)than on other days. The amount of swap-related hedging should be relatively constant each day.
Who knows. I’m only looking at 5 days of trading here, so any conclusion I might draw is meaningless.
top 10 etf’s
1 DTO 5 5 5 5 3 4.25
2 UUP 5 4 5 1 3 3.8
3 EUM 5 4 2 3 5 3.79
4 DEE 5 5 5 3 1 3.75
5 PVI 5 4 5 1 2 3.6
6 SCO 5 5 2 5 3 3.5
7 EFZ 5 4 2 3 4 3.35
8 SZK 5 4 2 3 4 3.35
9 SMN 5 4 1 5 4 3.2
10 BIL 5 4 4 1 1 3.15
From billcara.com:
he sell-off continues. Headlines around the world are screaming that markets are plunging because of bad corporate earnings news, or bad economic reports, or bad whatever. Sell, sell, sell.
Sorry, but I’m deaf and blind today, and believe me, I’m not handicapped.
I’m watching traders sell the Euro, sell oil, sell precious metals, sell the international equity markets, sell the US equity futures, sell, sell, sell… But what I see are the trillions of dollars of cash being built on the sidelines ready to come into the game in a flash.
Locked and loaded…
Meanwhile, financial stocks continued their heavy ways — with GE being the “leader” on the downside, as that stock 4% lower. Granted, BAC was 10% lower, but I think GE has a higher potential to shock folks if it continues to sink. This may sound like heresy, but it looks to me like GE is destined to join Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, AIG, Ford, and GM in the penny stock trash heap. Obviously, when you have as leveraged an entity as GE (which I noted last week), it doesn’t take much going afoul to put you in that spot.
CAT FINANCE!!!
I’m out.
I see dead bulls…etc…
“Indeud”
I like it; and it should be added to the dictionary.
Yeah man, you swore off the crack. It’s calling your name again.
The Fly is God
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123359977495740199.html?mod=igoogle_wsj_gadgv1&
Thanks Juice 🙂
9 (sic) shots didn’t drop me, I took it and smiled.
Commercial real estate is fucked because:
A They are accumulating debt like crazy as the value of their buildings goes down and their tenants go out of business causing them to leave the buildings empty.
B Their stocks are only at the level that they are because of dividends. There are some that think they will get bailed out but I guaran-mutha-fuckin’-tee (sp?) that they aren’t getting bailed out paying a 10 percent divi, which means that in order to have a prayer at tax payer cash they are going to have to cut the dividend which will implode them. They have no way out.
The writing is on the wall here people. Don’t tell me that it is priced in. This market is no longer forward looking. In fact, if anything I would say that it can’t even see 15 minutes in front of its present condition. Lets get it over with and put a bullet in it so we can start rebuilding.
That being said, hows about you go out and short some SPG tomorrow so my SRS can pay some rent.
PS feel free to diagram these sentences if it makes you happy.
The Zombie sucks dick.
I see dead bulls.
We test S&P 800 tomorrow and break through tomorrow or Wednesday.
DEATH TO ALL STUPID BULLS.
There were a few instances Fly mentioned a few stocks that I looked up and decided to purchase. These are the percent gains and losses since the time of mention and today. Not bad overall.
ABFS -1.16%
ASH -11.35%
BEN -2.99%
BK 14.98%
CF 10.65%
FMCN 2.32%
GME 19.25%
KBR 4.46%
M 23.87%
NTE 0%
NTRS 8.53%
OXPS -1.30%
TBL 7.03%
DEVILDOG: You still shorting Gold?
where is lady muthafuggin g?
rafa rafa rafa. he is just tooooooo good.
and damn this market. lots of temptations out there, but im with devil d o double g.
no longs till at least 805, if not 800, if ever.
The RO died today…
I can’t remember a day ever when only 10% of the traders made money. Pure awful out there.
-DT
I wrote it down…….some where………here it is! DD said new lows by 1-12-09 – write it down! Someone kept track of Fast Money for a year and Karen came in last – ponytail was first – they were mostly below the averages. It is probably on net some where – same for Cramer several years ago – he was about equal to the midcap average and he mostly recommended midcaps. What about the hedge funds here? Are they going to have to sell more or will they become net buyers?
Jed: you contribute nothing. All you do is ruin the comments section with your drivel. Attend to your gay lover and don’t come back.
The Fly is God.
Trust them? Contrary indicator? Truth telling? Talking their book? Hmmm…
Goldman Says Buy Puts as U.S. Stocks May Resume Drop
By Jeff Kearns
Feb. 2 (Bloomberg) — Investors should buy put options on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index because the benchmark for U.S. stocks may fall back to the 11-year low it reached in November, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said.
“Dismal” fourth-quarter profits and forecasts from companies as well as waning investor confidence in President Barack Obama’s economic stimulus plan may drive the S&P 500 toward 752.44 in the next month, Goldman strategists said.
For investors using a “put spread” strategy, the highest payoff would be generated through buying March 825 puts and selling March 745 puts, Krag “Buzz” Gregory and John Marshall wrote in a report distributed to clients today. That trade would produce $1.85 in profit for every $1 invested should the S&P 500 drop to its November low, they said. The index slumped a third day, losing 0.1 percent to 825.44 today.
“If the index continues to grind lower, put spreads look attractive given the current volatility landscape,” the New York-based options strategists said. “Put spreads have higher payout ratios than outright put hedges given elevated volatility.”
The U.S. economy probably shrank this quarter at a faster rate than the 3.8 percent annual pace in the final three months of 2008, according to Goldman Sachs economists.
“Our U.S. economics team sees little evidence that the downward spiral is abating,” the options strategists wrote.
Selling options when using a put-spread strategy helps finance the transaction because the seller collects the premium paid by the buyer. Spreads also cap profits if the stock falls below the lower strike price. Puts give the right to sell a security for a certain amount, the strike, by a given date.
The S&P 500 ended last year at 903.25, then slumped 8.6 percent to 825.88 last month for its worst January retreat as companies from Procter & Gamble Co. to Caterpillar Inc. and Allstate Corp. reported earnings that trailed estimates.
The cash on the sidelines thing…
Fleck has been a douche ever since he said he didn’t want to make money on the short side anymore – like making money that was boring or something.
But Hugh Hendry and Meredith Whitney both say the cash on the sidelnes thing is a myth.
A myth I tell you.
If 40% of the world’s wealth is gone, is the remainder eager to jump back in? Or is it tied up in funds not allowing redemption.
Some of it must be, but maybe someone else can answer this question. It’s important, because it certainly didn’t take a flood of cash to push the market between the November lows and the recent high…
And who bets GS is now doing the opposite of what it just advised re: a put spread?
The Zombie sucks dick.
You see? It is the same droning sort of message you like to deliver. Now pull the dick out of your ass and STFU…douchebag.
How is 40% of the world’s wealth gone?
Transferred? Yes.
Gone? No.
Deflation is not a zero sum game.
Or is it?
There’s always someone on the other side of the trade, right?
I guess a case can be made that housing/re has destroyed wealth, but those short CFC etc certainly benefited, no?
I could stand to learn something here, so open to discussion.
My current assumption is that wealth has been transferred, even consolidated, into the hands of those betting on the short side.
Eventually, we need to pull a Guy Adami and collectively declare “on a valuation basis…”
I’d like to discuss, so please weigh in.
I’ll bet no one here can name the super important negative indicator that was triggered today.
The south has still not recovered from the great cotton trade debacle of the 1860’s
They also haven’t gotten over that incident at Macho Grande.
Now stop calling me Shirley, and stop calling yourself Braveflaps.
Ge credit default swaps blowing out.
Boomer
Capital has been destroyed, not transferred, since it is all leveraged crap.
Total loss; hence, there is deflation.
DD- pick me i know
Devil, probably a Dow Theory something or rather, due to the trannies at lows?
Here is a visual representation of my mustard seeds versus the destruction of credit…the mustard seeds are in the truck.
http://www.rail-videos.net/video/view.php?id=1217
I see a panic rally
Moron
Dog, let me guess. It was the worst January ever and 6/8 times the year follows january’s performance.
Many negative indicators; the only positive indicator for a market reversal is you DD. You started talking shit again lately (although your “predictions” are open ended these days, no dates for the destruction of mankind provided).
Which sucks since I am 35% short and the rest cash. Just go back to the kennel.
Here is the video:
http://www.rail-videos.net/video/view.php?id=1217
Oh S&P closed Nov 21 gap
omfgitsjd, That stuff about January is just an old trader’s tale. There is no edge there. It is really a 50/50 proposition as to the rest of the year’s performance.
WOOD WINS. The rest of you are stupid bulltards.
We break through 800 no later than Wednesday.
ottnott Says:
Aris:
Could be.
However, if the hedging/closing by the swaps writers was responsible for the late-day volume spike, I’d expect the spike to be more pronounced on low-volume days (Jan 27)than on other days. The amount of swap-related hedging should be relatively constant each day.
that’s a good point. maybe they only hedge at certain opportunities. although, the market is so fucked these days, maybe they’re not hedging at all, and we have another ponzi scheme going.
Stimulus Package = Democratic Vibrator
DD, as my prize, can I take your voluptuous wifey out for a ride in the Viper?
in retrospect…’democratic dildo’ would sound funnier.
WOOD, I figured the 6/8 times didn’t help. Particularly since we are in some pretty strange territory.
Nuff said
Gunning for the booby prize, Wood?
Nuff said
Tpup, you got me. I could care less about fast cars.
So what did I hear today.
OK news is Good News.
Bad news is OK News.
Why does Bob Doll pimp on CNBC morning and night? 1 Trillion under management?
This guy is a dandy.
Forty percent gone,
Transferred, as it were, to an
Incinerator
Where did my UYG wealth go?
If someone has it I want it back.
A brand new pope or
An egregious loss of wealth?
Both a puff of smoke
Chopfest.
It can go on forever. Literally, this could last several months.
Bummer for the A.D.D crowd like myself.
Wood, No way my friend.
Dog, what was the dealbreaker? The wife or the Viper?
http://www.raincitystory.com/flash/screenclean.swf
go here and give it a minute and your computer screen will be cleaned……no joke
People adverse to risk will buy what they know, thinking that is less risk.
Personally I think most of the S&P500 companies are full of soccer mom and faggy dad managers that are exploring new thresholds of inefficiency. But they will be the ones bought by people not thinking about fundamentals — the people buying what they know.
Wood, they are both too wild for you. Both of them would hurt you bad.
Devildog is prob the only short that lost money last year. Who is going to believe him that we drop below 800 after he has been calling the doom day every 2 hours.
The transfer of wealth occured when I was paying $4.50/gallon for gasoline at oil’s high.
Dog, fair enough.
I think Fly’s parents were psychiatrists.
He’s pretty good,
but I crushed the fly with my magic wand today.
The wealth never was. It was all an illusion. One big fucked up illusion.
It wasn’t wealth. It was leverage.
I think any melt-ups over the next few weeks will be looked back upon as the “BLUEBERRY FIST EFFECT”
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=blueberry%20fist
And the rest of ’09 might be dubbed “THE SEESAW MARKET”
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=seesaw
“Basically, everyone loses on days like today.” Yet, Devildog is a loser everyday.
@twitterjoker thinks the goldman sachs article es very interesting
ciiti reits Buy and raises HUM target price to $53 tonight
DD
Don’t you need a new low in the $DJI to confirm dow theory?
I’ll suck yo’ d**k for some inverse ETFs
The economy is so bad that George Soros is bringing his entire trading team to Denny’s tomorrow
can I suggest everyone get a killfile and place the dog in that cage. It’s awfully hard following a conversation with you all referring to the devil’s dog while I bask in the luxury of not ever having to read him.
Tell that to the fucking oligarchs who used the oil money to buy 100 mill villas off the coast of France.
You fuckers are low morons.
This morning I stumbled over to a cup of “Barista Bold” and turned on the tv, only to discover that this particular “its a new stay / business traveller special” property did not carry CNBC. I was like “fuck, you’ve got to be kidding me”. But then I thought back to when some of the fancier/omniscient sims on this site announced they were too enlighted to even view such a weak channel, let alone base any trading action on its content. And, I had a little fun with that – so thanks.
and the rest fly.
One Russian fucker spent 500 mill on one house, although I don’t know if he settled.
These fucking pricks at GS are just arseholes:
Selling options when using a put-spread strategy helps finance the transaction because the seller collects the premium paid by the buyer. Spreads also cap profits if the stock falls below the lower strike price.
They’re telling the public to short options, which is one of the most dangerous games every devised by man in terms of losing money risk/reward wise.
Why do you disappoint me? Second by second, you waste my time. The only reason God doesn’t erase you from the face of the Earth is because you amuse him somehow.